CONTACT ENERGY LIMITED (CEN)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial

24/07/2025

3

Resumes coverage with Neutral

-

-

UBS resumes coverage of Contact Energy with a Neutral rating and NZ$9.75 target price post the acquisition of Manawa Energy.

Manawa Energy is expected to contribute to earnings at the start of FY26 and will boost the combined business to forecast FY26 earnings (EBITDAF) of NZ$1bn, commentary points out.

Renewable generation should rise to around 98% of FY26 forecast earnings and circa 88% for FY27 forecast earnings.

The acquisition should also underwrite synergy benefits over the next 18 months to corporate and head office cost outs, commentary suggests, optimising hydro management and peaking, and improved locational generation distribution.

From a macro perspective, UBS highlights NZ electric utilities have had a flat performance over the past nine months and slightly under-performed the NZX50 index due to both regulatory and hydrological risks.

Share price upside is likely to be limited by ongoing high long bond yields, the broker concludes.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 2.37 cents and EPS of 23.98 cents.

17/09/2025

2

Overweight

-

-

Jarden highlights implied EBITDA in Contact Energy's August operating data was NZ$90m, higher than its forecast of NZ$87m.

This was driven by higher geothermal/hydro, stronger retail and commercial & industrial netbacks, and lower generation costs.

The broker retained FY26 forecast for NZ$948m EBITDA.

Overweight. Target unchanged at NZ$10.86.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 36.47 cents and EPS of 28.72 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 38.30 cents and EPS of 30.45 cents.