CONTACT ENERGY LIMITED (CEN)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial

11/08/2026

1

Outperform

-

-

Contact Energy has guided to EBITDAF in FY27 of NZ$1.05bn, below Macquarie's forecasts and considered conservative. FY26 EBITDA was higher than the most recent company guidance, with the distribution in line.

The company has indicated that potential equity investment in the Stratford DC may allow shareholders to capture a share of the site's energy and fibre infrastructure.

Macquarie currently factors in no value for this asset while pointing out that vending the asset into the joint venture could form the basis of any initial equity stake.

Target edges up to NZ$10.88 from NZ$10.67 and an Outperform rating is maintained.

FORECAST
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 35.75 cents and EPS of 34.56 cents.
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 37.45 cents and EPS of 41.28 cents.

12/08/2026

2

Overweight

$11.19

47.04%

Jarden maintains an Overweight rating for Contact Energy with its target price increased to NZ$11.19 from NZ$11.11 following the release of the FY26 result.

The company delivered full-year EBITDAF of NZ$1,011m alongside a dividend of NZ40.0c per share, while management guided FY27 EBITDAF to NZ$1,045m as hydro normalisation offsets a temporary decline in geothermal generation.

Strong demand catalysts strengthen the case for developing the fully consented Southland Wind project, highlighted by a signed letter of intent with Rio Tinto ((RIO)) to supply 50MW of renewable power for restarting a mothballed potline at Tiwai Point.

The energy provider also partnered with CDC Data Centres to explore a 250MW IT load facility at the retired Taranaki Combined Cycle site, giving the business potential equity exposure to a high-return digital infrastructure investment.

To account for potential equity co-investment in large-scale digital infrastructure, the analyst prudently reduced dividend payout assumptions from FY28 onwards, modestly lowering estimates for future distributions while preserving balance sheet capacity to fund the extensive development pipeline.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 35.75 cents and EPS of 32.35 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 39.24 cents and EPS of 36.52 cents.