CONTACT ENERGY LIMITED (CEN)
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12/08/2026

3

Neutral

-

-

Contact Energy’s share price has underperformed the broader NZ utilities sector by -8% over the past three months, which UBS attributes to the sharp decline in FY27 and FY28 electricity futures prices and the company’s exposure as a net generator.

Despite this backdrop, FY26 EBITDAF reached a record $1.01bn, ahead of forecasts, supported by gas contract wins, stronger C&I returns, hydro optimisation and Manawa synergies.

The analyst expects earnings growth to plateau over the next three years as weaker wholesale prices and moderating customer pricing offset further Manawa benefits, before new geothermal capacity provides another potential growth leg beyond FY29.

The broker also sees longer-term optionality from a proposed 250MW data centre development with CDC at Stratford, alongside batteries and industrial electrification.

UBS retains Neutral and lowers the target to NZ$9.60 from NZ$9.75.

This report was published on August 11th.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 35.19 cents and EPS of 34.35 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 36.87 cents and EPS of 32.68 cents.

12/08/2026

2

Overweight

$11.19

62.17%

Jarden maintains an Overweight rating for Contact Energy with its target price increased to NZ$11.19 from NZ$11.11 following the release of the FY26 result.

The company delivered full-year EBITDAF of NZ$1,011m alongside a dividend of NZ40.0c per share, while management guided FY27 EBITDAF to NZ$1,045m as hydro normalisation offsets a temporary decline in geothermal generation.

Strong demand catalysts strengthen the case for developing the fully consented Southland Wind project, highlighted by a signed letter of intent with Rio Tinto ((RIO)) to supply 50MW of renewable power for restarting a mothballed potline at Tiwai Point.

The energy provider also partnered with CDC Data Centres to explore a 250MW IT load facility at the retired Taranaki Combined Cycle site, giving the business potential equity exposure to a high-return digital infrastructure investment.

To account for potential equity co-investment in large-scale digital infrastructure, the analyst prudently reduced dividend payout assumptions from FY28 onwards, modestly lowering estimates for future distributions while preserving balance sheet capacity to fund the extensive development pipeline.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 35.19 cents and EPS of 31.84 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 38.63 cents and EPS of 35.95 cents.