ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED (OBM)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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27/08/2026

3

Downgrade to Neutral from Buy

$1.80

14.29%

Ora Banda Mining's FY26 EBITDA was in line with UBS' expectations and 4% ahead of consensus, despite revenue missing forecasts due to the accounting treatment of third-party processing costs.

NPAT was weaker than expected as D&A came in 32% above forecast and 39% above consensus, prompting the broker to cut FY27 and FY28 earnings forecasts by -9% and FY29 by -13%, respectively.

The analyst remains positive on management's longer-term "Drive to 300" strategy, underpinned by a new 3Mtpa Davyhurst mill which is expected to more than double production by the end of the decade.

Post a 56% share price rally over the past month, however, the broker sees limited upside under its current gold price assumptions and downgrades to Neutral.

The target price rises to $1.80 from $1.45, reflecting a higher sector multiple and increased exploration optionality, while UBS notes its valuation would rise to around $2.60 at the current spot gold price.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
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Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial

27/08/2026

1

Buy

$1.60

1.59%

Moelis maintains its Buy rating for Ora Banda Mining with its target price decreased to $1.40 from $1.60 following a fourth-quarter production report outlining total production of 39.6koz Au, meeting the bottom end of FY26 guidance.

Operational performance was impacted by AISC costs rising above guidance due to diesel prices and weather disruptions hindering haulage, though the business generated $36m in free cash flow after capital expenditure and exploration spend.

Commentary highlights that near-term capital spend is pulled forward and valuation components are rolled forward, reducing net present value and price target expectations while leaving medium-term production targets intact.

Moelis suggests the structural setup remains compelling, supported by a healthy balance sheet, existing gold price protection, and a fully funded three-year growth plan.

FORECAST
Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.30 cents.
Moelis forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.20 cents.