Weekly Reports | Jul 27 2026
This story features ALPHA HPA LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A4N
The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday July 20 to Friday July 24, 2026
Total Upgrades: 9
Total Downgrades: 12
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 65.37%; Hold 27.96%; Sell 6.68%
For the week ending Friday, July 24, 2026, FNArena recorded nine upgrades and twelve downgrades in ratings for individual ASX-listed stocks from seven brokers monitored daily.
The tables below reveal reductions in target prices were greater in size than increases while percentage rises in average earnings forecasts were significantly larger than falls.
It probably won’t surprise, but resources companies, in particular smaller-sized mining companies, feature prominently on both sides of the ledger.
In a special report on the Technology Hardware & Equipment sector, Macquarie suggested AI will become the next catalyst as the IT refresh cycle matures. Further upside beyond general industry growth is expected to be driven by exposure to AI/data centre capex and the refresh of IT stacks by small and medium-sized businesses.
As a result of this report, Dicker Data heads up the table for average target price increase after the broker raised its target to $12.85 from $10.35 and upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.
Limited risk is seen from the company’s August interim result, with Macquarie’s channel checks indicating hardware supply remains available and higher average selling prices continue to be passed through to customers without destroying demand.
The analysis also highlighted several structural tailwinds for PC demand, including low penetration of AI-enabled laptops, ongoing device refresh requirements, increasing digitisation and population growth.
Hardware supply constraints are expected to persist for at least 18-24 months, limiting the risk of price deflation in FY27.
Management at Dicker Data expects more than $60m of AI-related revenue in FY26. While this represents less than 5% of gross group sales, Macquarie noted accelerating Australian data centre investment provides a meaningful long-term growth opportunity.
Average targets for fibre cement building materials provider James Hardie Industries and BNPL player Zip Co also rose by 6.9% and 6.8%, respectively.
James Hardie delivered a better-than-expected (pre-released) result in the first quarter with earnings 10% ahead of guidance and expectations, underpinned by stronger siding & trim sales as well as operations outside of the US, UBS noted.
Management pointed out the results are reflective of above-market growth rather than an improved US housing market.
FNArena will publish an article on all broker views around James Hardies’ June quarter results and the outlook early this week.
Regarding Zip Co, here Citi raised its cash earnings forecasts by 2%-6%, reflecting stronger US total transaction value (TTV) growth and a higher net transaction margin, partly offset by weaker growth in the Australia and New Zealand region.
Citi increased its target to $3.55 from $2.60, primarily reflecting higher peer multiples. For the results season, Citi also sees upside risk to Zip’s FY26 cash EBTDA forecast of $265m, citing lower-than-expected operating expenditure as hiring activity slows.
The FY26 result is expected to focus on the building blocks supporting future US TTV growth.
Miners Coronado Global Resources, Paladin Energy and South32 feature prominently in the week’s top ranking for upgraded earnings forecasts.
The change for Coronado resulted solely from Ord Minnett’s cessation of research coverage and its subsequent exclusion from the consensus calculation.
Uranium miner Paladin’s June quarter production ‘beat’ market consensus, even as volumes were -5% lower than the previous quarter.
UBS lowered its target for Paladin by -90c to $11.70 and upgraded to Buy from Neutral with FY26 production/sales at the upper end of recently revised guidance.
This broker sees asymmetric upside as management continues to de-risk Langer Heinrich, advances Patterson Lake South through key permitting milestones and grows its cash balance by US$45m during the quarter to US$265m.
By contrast, Ord Minnett downgraded Paladin to Lighten from Hold after lowering its target by -$1.00 to $8.50 after cutting its FY27 earnings forecast by around -73%, with higher costs also weighing on earnings estimates in subsequent years.
South32’s transformation into a copper and zinc-focused miner is gathering pace, with analysts highlighting production growth, a stronger balance sheet and an increasingly attractive valuation.
For more details see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/07/23/south32-targets-growth-through-transformation/
Victorian operator of land lease communities Lifestyle Communities and global hotel software provider SiteMinder also enjoyed higher earnings forecasts of more than 20% last week.
REITs have underperformed the ASX200 by -9% over the past 12 months. Bell Potter explained higher funding costs have weighed on REIT transaction activity during 2H26, slowing what had been a strong period of earnings upgrades.
More positively, it’s felt expectations for a flatter cash rate path could improve the macroeconomic outlook and support a sector recovery. This broker’s target for Lifestyle Communities was raised by 20c to $5.70.
Impacting positively on SiteMinder’s average earnings forecast, Ord Minnett suspended its research of the stock, along with all other travel and leisure stocks under coverage.
Ahead of August results, Morgan Stanley highlights SiteMinder as one of its key small/mid cap picks.
The absence of a pre-result trading update suggests to the broker the consensus earnings forecast remains achievable despite foreign exchange headwinds and disruption from the Middle East conflict.
Morgan Stanley contrast this with several earnings downgrades across the Travel sector and concerns around artificial intelligence.
The broker believes FY27 offers stronger valuation support, with the market underestimating the reduced risk of AI disruption following SiteMinder’s partnership with cloud-based hospitality software company Mews, a provider of property management systems (PMSs) for hotels.
Next up is Generation Development with a circa 11% rise in average earnings forecast.
Morgans noted a strong result for the June quarter with both the Investment Bond business and the managed accounts and investment solutions division Evidentia outperforming market expectations.
Citi felt the company’s June quarter update restored market confidence in its medium-term growth outlook after stronger-than-expected net inflows.
Fourth quarter net flows exceeded expectations on both a headline and core basis, supported by improving adviser activity, stronger sales momentum and potential mandate wins, Citi explains.
Management also highlighted tax reforms in the 2026 Commonwealth Budget will widen the pool of investors likely to consider investment bonds and the impact should emerge over several years from FY27.
Conversely, Vista International heads up the table for negative change to average earnings forecast with a fall of around -22%.
Ahead of Vista’s first-half result, Ord Minnett anticipates a strong outcome, supported by robust box office trends, no foreign exchange headwinds and solid execution of cloud site transitions.
Revenue is expected to land at the upper end of FY26 guidance despite a second-half weighting, with domestic box office receipts having reached $4.8bn year-to-date, the second-highest first half since 2019.
Maintaining a Buy rating, Ord Minnett felt recent share price weakness has created value. The broker’s target was lowered by -11c to $2.99.
Medical technology company PolyNovo’s consensus earnings forecast fell by around -21% along with a -16% fall in target price. PolyNovo develops and sells synthetic biomaterials used to treat complex wounds, burns and soft tissue injuries.
Bell Potter cut its target to $1.00 from $2.00 and downgraded to Hold from Buy after FY26 revenue guidance missed the consensus estimate by around -6%.
Growth slowed across all regions, the broker observed, with US sales declining -2.6% in the second half from the first half and international growth easing to around 20%. A lack of further detail on the company’s strategy to enter the US outpatient care market was also noted.
Santos and Telix Pharmaceuticals also had a bad week with respective falls in earnings forecasts of -16% and -14%.
Santos’ June quarter result was weaker than expected by UBS, but the broker could still envisage significant upside as Barossa and Pikka move towards full production.
Commissioning delays reduced FY26 production guidance and prompted a -31% cut to the broker’s FY26 earnings forecast.
Higher third-party LNG purchases and a slower production ramp-up also weighed on first-half free cash flow and dividend expectations, prompting UBS to cut its interim dividend forecast to US8c from US11c and its FY26 forecast to US33c from US42c.
Elsewhere, Citi felt Santos is approaching an inflection point as major growth projects de-risk, improving confidence in higher cash flow and shareholder returns.
As evidenced by its latest quarterly update, Telix has continued to outperform operationally in 2026, though future upside is increasingly dependent on pipeline execution, regulatory approvals and therapeutic progress as explained in https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/07/22/strong-result-can-telix-continue-to-deliver/
Lynas Rare Earths’ consensus earnings forecast fell by just over -10%. Rare earth oxide production of 3,481t came in -10% below consensus and -5% below Macquarie’s forecast, whilst NdPr production missed both by -15%.
Citi felt a June quarter production shortfall reflected transition-zone ore at Mt Weld rather than processing constraints.
Management plans operational changes rather than additional capital expenditure to address the issue.
Record average selling prices and stronger-than-expected dysprosium and terbium production benefited from renewed Chinese export controls, the broker explained.
Future heavy rare earth production growth is seen as dependent on ore grades rather than processing capacity.
Appearing below PolyNovo on the negative change to target price list below is Alkane Resources with a -10% fall following a pre-released operational report for the June quarter.
UBS lowered its target to $1.75 from $2.15 after FY27 production guidance and cost forecasts disappointed. The broker, however, retained a Buy rating, believing the company’s strong balance sheet and cash generation support further acquisitions, with Medallion Metals’ Ravensthorpe Gold Project viewed as a potential growth opportunity.
Longer term, UBS can see additional upside from exploration at Costerfield and development of the Boda-Kaiser project.
Separately, Ord Minnett noted higher-than-expected growth capital expenditure in FY27 will have only a modest valuation impact and continued to forecast around 40% total shareholder return.
Total Buy ratings remain historically elevated at 65.37%, with Sell ratings at just 6.68%, leaving 27.96% on Neutral/Hold.
Upgrade
ALPHA HPA LIMITED ((A4N)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/0/0
Alpha HPA continues to execute well on construction of its Gladstone Stage 2 plant, according to Ord Minnett, while strong customer demand for the company’s product supports the long-term growth outlook.
Commentary notes capital expenditure remains in line with management’s revised 2026 budget. The company is working to secure the proposed $400m NAIF and Export Finance Australia loan after meeting customer letter of intent (LOI) requirements.
Securing the government-backed funding is expected to improve confidence the project is fully financed, with few other near-term catalysts during construction.
The broker upgrades its rating to Speculative Buy from Accumulate and retains a 90c target.
COLES GROUP LIMITED ((COL)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 6/1/0
Ord Minnett upgrades its rating for Coles Group to Buy from Hold and lifts its target to $27.00 from $23.00. The broker rolls forward its valuation for the group and factors in lower estimated net debt.
The analyst expects food inflation to accelerate in the September quarter, supporting like-for-like sales growth above market expectations.
Forecast earnings are trimmed modestly, reflecting higher interest rates and debt costs. Ord Minnett also expects the drag from illegal tobacco sales to ease as enforcement action improves across Australia.
DICKER DATA LIMITED ((DDR)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/1/0
Macquarie upgrades Dicker Data to Outperform from Neutral with a higher target price of $12.85 from $10.35, highlighting the stock has greater AI upside potential for on-premise and infrastructure.
The stock is viewed as best positioned for AI upside potential compared to Data#3 ((DTL)) and should be a winner from an eventual SMB IT refresh cycle.
The company is forecast at least $60m-plus of AI-related revenue in FY26, the analyst states, with the run rate “accelerating”.
The broker believes there are limited issues around the full forward of AI-related demand into FY26 with high frequency data suggesting demand remains robust, even with higher average selling prices.
EPS forecasts are lifted by 8% for FY26 and FY27 which are aiming to capture the expected contribution from AI opportunity as well as higher interest rates.
HMC CAPITAL LIMITED ((HMC)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 4/2/0
Bell Potter observes A-REITs have faced some headwinds in the second half with higher variable cost of debt limiting overall market transaction volumes and slowing what has otherwise been a strong period for sector earnings upgrades.
The broker assesses those that have undergone strategy resets, such as HMC Capital, are preferred plays and upgrades to Buy from Hold. Target is raised to $3.85 from $3.20.
JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC ((JHX)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/3/0
James Hardie Industries beat expectations in its June quarter, which Morgans largely attributes to execution and above-market growth rather than an improving US housing market.
The broker continues to expect the business will follow traditional earnings seasonality, with larger quarters in June and March.
Higher growth in FY27 reduces the heavy lifting required in FY28 to achieve consensus forecasts for EPS and on this basis the broker upgrades earnings estimates and raises the target to $40 from $36. Rating is upgraded to Hold from Trim.
LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) Upgrade to Lighten from Sell by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/1
Ord Minnett observes Lynas Rare Earths is struggling to approach nameplate of 10,000tpa at Mount Weld, even with its vast experience.
The broker downgrades production forecasts in the wake of the June quarter, where output fell to 1857t, and this reduces earnings estimates.
Yet the company is a beneficiary of strong rare earth prices amid solid cash flow and the rating is increased to Lighten rather than Sell.
That said, Ord Minnett believes there is better value in smaller names. Target is raised to $15 from $14.
ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED ((ORG)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/1
Ord Minnett updates its Energy sector outlook to reflect the prolonged disruption to oil and LNG markets following the ongoing Middle East conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
While the broker has modestly lowered its Brent crude and LNG price forecasts in line with the forward curve, it’s felt risks remain firmly skewed to the upside.
Low OECD inventories, the threat of further supply disruptions through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, improving Chinese demand and continued Middle East production outages are all expected to support higher energy prices.
The target for Origin Energy remains at $10.40. The rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten following recent share price weakness.
PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED ((PDN)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 6/0/0
UBS has upgraded Paladin Energy to Buy from Neutral with FY26 production/sales at the upper end of recently revised guidance and aligning with the analyst’s forecasts.
The market was focused on FY27 guidance which has come in at 5.1mlb-5.6mlb, below the broker’s forecast at 5.7mlb, a softer outlook is implied, albeit management has a history of being conservative.
Production in 1H27 is flagged to be lower due to planned maintenance, lower grades and fewer operating days with a “meaningful” rise in 2H27.
On Patterson Lake South, management has signed an agreement with the Canadian Nuclear Safety Board allowing the way for obtaining a construction license by the end of 2027.
EPS forecasts are lowered by -17% for FY26 and -8% for FY27. Target price moves to $11.70 from $12.60. The current share price offers “asymmetric” upside with Paladin generating over US$45m in cash flow in the quarter to US$265m.
See also PDN downgrade.
PLS GROUP LIMITED ((PLS)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 3/4/0
Citi believes recent share price weakness for Australian lithium stocks has become overdone, with investors increasingly pricing in a lithium surplus in 2027 following lower spodumene prices.
The broker instead forecasts a 2026 global lithium deficit and stronger Chinese demand from August.
It’s felt the main risk is weaker demand, including the potential impact of China’s proposed battery tax, whilst Zimbabwe’s confirmed lithium export ban tightens the supply outlook.
PLS Group is preferred for its scale, low costs and growth, while IGO Ltd and Liontown are seen as fairly valued.
PLS Group is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target $5.00, down from $5.25.
Downgrade
AMPOL LIMITED ((ALD)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/1/0
Ord Minnett updates its Energy sector outlook to reflect the prolonged disruption to oil and LNG markets following the ongoing Middle East conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
While the broker has modestly lowered its Brent crude and LNG price forecasts in line with the forward curve, it’s felt risks remain firmly skewed to the upside.
Low OECD inventories, the threat of further supply disruptions through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, improving Chinese demand and continued Middle East production outages are all expected to support higher energy prices.
Following a recent share price rise, Ord Minnett downgrades its rating for Ampol to Accumulate from Buy. The target rises to $37.10 from $36.60.
CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT ((CIP)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/4/0
Bell Potter observes A-REITs have faced some headwinds in the second half with higher variable cost of debt limiting overall market transaction volumes and slowing what has otherwise been a strong period for sector earnings upgrades.
The broker downgrades Centuria Industrial REIT to Hold from Buy amid below-consensus views on earnings in FY27, given some FY27 expiry risks. The stock is also seen as having traded in line with or better than others in the sector over the last six months. Target is reduced to $3.25 from $3.60.
CENTURIA OFFICE REIT ((COF)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 0/1/2
Bell Potter observes A-REITs have faced some headwinds in the second half with higher variable cost of debt limiting overall market transaction volumes and slowing what has otherwise been a strong period for sector earnings upgrades.
The broker downgrades Centuria Office REIT to Sell from Hold, forecasting a dividend reduction that will be driven by lower earnings and a need for more headroom on the balance sheet. Target is reduced to $0.85 from $0.95.
DEXUS INDUSTRIA REIT ((DXI)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/2/0
Bell Potter observes A-REITs have faced some headwinds in the second half with higher variable cost of debt limiting overall market transaction volumes and slowing what has otherwise been a strong period for sector earnings upgrades.
The broker downgrades Dexus Industria REIT to Hold from Buy amid below-consensus views on earnings in FY27, given some FY27 expiry risks. The stock is also seen having traded in line with or better than others in the sector over the last six months. Target is reduced to $2.70 from $3.00.
ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED ((EDV)) Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/2/2
Morgan Stanley lowers its target for Endeavour Group by -20c to $3.00 and downgrades to Underweight from Equal-weight, citing rising earnings risk and the capital required to fund a turnaround. Industry View: Cautious.
The broker believes recovering retail sales will likely require continued price investment, placing further pressure on gross margins.
Management is prioritising retail sales recovery through value, promotions, loyalty, and digital.
Morgan Stanley, however, questions whether available capital is sufficient to fund the required investment in retail, hotels and technology. Lack of available capital is stressed in commentary given elevated leverage and ongoing cost inflation.
MITCHELL SERVICES LIMITED ((MSV)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Speculative Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/0/0
Morgans downgrades its rating for Mitchell Services to Accumulate from Speculative Buy following recent share price strength, while maintaining its 60c target.
The June quarter exceeded the broker’s revenue expectations as drilling activity accelerated, with average operating rigs rising to 62 and finishing the year at 65.
Revenue of $56.5m comfortably exceeded the analyst’s forecast of $51.3m, increasing from $48.5m in the previous quarter and $50.5m a year earlier.
Despite higher mobilisation costs, commentary notes the full-year earnings (EBITDA) margin improved to 20.6%, the strongest in a decade.
A net cash position of $3.5m and robust cash generation have increased confidence in a higher fully franked dividend, with Morgans lifting its final dividend forecast to 3c per share from 2c.
NOUMI LIMITED ((NOU)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 0/1/0
Noumi delivered fourth-quarter sales that were slightly below Bell Potter’s expectations amid a weaker performance in the dairy and nutritionals platform.
The largest shareholder, Arrovest, has also made an offer for the remaining equity at 12.34c per security. The offer equates to an enterprise value of $840m-$874m and follows an extensive strategic review of the capital structure, with this deemed the best outcome.
Revenue growth was 2.3% with plant-based revenue of $47m broadly consistent with the broker’s forecasts.
As Bell Potter considers it unlikely another entity will make a counter bid, the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target is reduced to 12.3c from 18c.
PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED ((PDN)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 6/0/0
Paladin Energy has successfully completed the Langer Heinrich ramp up, exceeding FY26 guidance across production, sales and costs in the June quarter.
Ord Minnett points out FY27 guidance is weaker than expected at 5.1-5.6mlb while cost guidance of US$44/lb-US$48/lb is materially ahead of prior assumptions.
Cash and investments finished the year at US$265m, protecting the balance sheet. Rating is downgraded to Lighten from Hold as the FY27 EBITDA forecast drops -73%, with higher costs weighing on earnings. Target is reduced to $8.50 from $9.50.
See also PDN upgrade.
POLYNOVO LIMITED ((PNV)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/1/0
Bell Potter downgrades PolyNovo to Hold from Buy with a lower target of $1 from $2 post the FY26 revenue announcement.
Notably, growth slowed in FY26 in both absolute and percentage terms, meaning a miss of some -6% against consensus expectations.
The US revenue slowed particularly in the 2H, down -2.6% against the prior half. Rest of the world sales rose around 20% but were lower than the FY25 growth rate of 30%.
The analyst highlights an absence of further information or detail in relation to the strategic direction of entry into the outpatient care market in the US.
Earnings (EBITDA) forecasts for FY26/FY27 are cut by -32% and -51%, respectively, on lower revenue forecasts.
QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED ((QBE)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 2/3/0
UBS downgrades QBE Insurance to Neutral from Buy with a higher target of $27.30 from $25.25.
The analyst expects QBE to deliver a solid 1H26 result and reiterate FY26 guidance, but also believes softening reinsurance and commercial insurance pricing will create margin headwinds into FY27.
Higher combined operating ratio forecasts of 93.0% for FY27 and 93.5% for FY28 reflect weaker premium pricing and limited scope for reserve releases to offset earnings pressure, whilst the North American business, excluding Crop, remains a key underperformer.
UBS notes earnings growth is expected to slow, with EPS forecast to grow at just a 2% CAGR between FY26 and FY28.
WESFARMERS LIMITED ((WES)) Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 1/3/2
Morgan Stanley assesses consumer stocks continue to screen expensive and while a rebound in discretionary consumer stocks occurred from mid-May, its view is the trend has limited durability.
The broker expects the reporting season will expose the weakness in consumer, as inflation problems appeared well before the energy shock and are not yet fully reflected in expectations.
While Kmart is expected to be a beneficiary of trading down and range expansion, Morgan Stanley expects a moderation in sales growth at Bunnings amid emerging correction in the domestic property market.
Wesfarmers is downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight. Target edges up to $79.00 from $78.70. Industry View: Cautious.
WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED ((WOW)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/4/2
Ord Minnett has downgraded Woolworths Group to Hold from Accumulate due to the valuation re-rating which has seen the share rise more than 20% since mid-May. The target price remains unchanged at $39.
EPS forecasts are trimmed by -0.9% for FY26, -2.7% for FY27 and -2.1% for FY28.
The broker admits there has been only a slight pick up in food inflation this year, but this is expected to change in the Sept quarter due to a three-month lag for suppliers asking for a price rise, and supermarkets making the changes.
Looking to FY27, the analyst believes both Woolworths and Coles Group ((COL)) can generate like-for-like sales growth or circa 5% which sits above market forecasts of some 4% and 4.3%, respectively.
The negative impact of illegal tobacco sales is expected to fall to -25bps in FY27 from -149bps for Coles, and to -34bps from 1-56bps for Woolworths.
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