Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Dec 01, 2022

This story features 29METALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 29M

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

29M   AFP   ASG   AVG   BHP   CGC   CSL   ERD   HVN   KGN   KME   NCK   NOL   NPR   QAN   RIO   SFR   UNI   WSP   ZIP  

29M    29METALS LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $2.44

Canaccord Genuity rates ((29M)) as Sell (5) –

Canaccord Genuity updates its forecasts for 29Metals after the recent Gossan Valley mine study (at the Golden Grove mine in WA) and progress at the Cervantes deposit, also at Golden Grove.

The analyst is cautious on the Gossan study and feels the required $88m in pre-production capital will be difficult to approve, unless commodity prices trade higher. The Sell rating is maintained.

The broker increases its multiple for the company due to both commodity movements and potential sector positioning, given the potential departure of OZ Minerals ((OZL)) due to takeover.

Canaccord lifts its target for 29Metals to $2.00 from $1.90.

This report was published on November 24, 2022.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting downside of -6.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.1, implying annual growth of -99.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2440.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.9, implying annual growth of 4800.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AFP    AFT PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $3.51

Bell Potter rates ((AFP)) as Hold (3) –

Following a return to pre-covid activity levels for community pharmacy and after new product launches in the over the counter (OTC) category in A&NZ, 1H revenues from product sales by rose by 30%, highlights Bell Potter. 

AFT Pharmaceuticals' also registered royalty revenues, from international sales and rest-of-world product sales, in line with the analyst's estimate.

However, management lowered FY23 guidance for operating profit to NZ$17.5m-$21m from NZ$27-32m due to delays in the commercialisation milestone for Maxigesic IV in the US, explains the broker.

Bell Potter expects a maiden FY23 dividend of 3.0cps. The target price is reduced to $3.16 from $4.00 to allow for lower earnings forecasts and a sector de-rating. Hold.

This report was published on November 25, 2022.

Target price is $3.16 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If AFP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.75 cents and EPS of 9.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.51.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.57 cents and EPS of 14.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.75.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASG    AUTOSPORTS GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $1.98

Moelis rates ((ASG)) as Buy (1) –

Autosports Group has provided first half profit before tax guidance of $48-50m, reflecting 22-28% growth on the previous comparable period or underlying growth of 17-22% excluding contributions from the Auckland City BMW acquisition. 

Moelis expects there may be some conservatism to guidance given the result is reliant on deliveries in December. The broker considers weaker used car margins could suggest the beginning of margin normalisation, but trading remains strong at this point. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.30 from $2.50.

This report was published on November 28, 2022.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.98 Difference: $0.32
If ASG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 33.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.91.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 22.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.80.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVG    AUSTRALIAN VINTAGE LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $0.60

Moelis rates ((AVG)) as Buy (1) –

Key takeaways for Moelis from Australian Vintage's AGM include a -3% fall in year-to-date trading volumes compared to the previous corresponding period. This follows minor price increases, as the sales mix shifted to lower-value products, explains the analyst.

The broker highlights ongoing market share gains in the UK, Asia and North America and stable share for A&NZ, but elevated shipping costs have reduced the gross margin to around 30% from 32.8% in FY22.

Margins are suffering from less consumer spending, unfavourable currency moves, rising distribution costs from higher fuel prices, and elevated shipping costs, explains the analyst. 

The target falls to 81c from 88c and the Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on November 25, 2022.

Target price is $0.81 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.21
If AVG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.80 cents and EPS of 4.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.24.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 7.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.79.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP    BHP GROUP LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $45.52

Goldman Sachs rates ((BHP)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) –

Goldman Sachs believes the potential acquisition of OZ Minerals ((OZL)) and its copper mines will potentially bring forward a larger two-stage copper smelter at Olympic Dam. Synergies of US$0.8-1.5bn are envisaged.

This development would allow processing of concentrate from a possible future 150ktpa copper mine at BHP Group’s Oak Dam.

Despite a lift in target to $42.90 from $42.30, the broker lowers its rating for BHP to Neutral from Buy on valuation.

This report was published on November 24, 2022.

Target price is $42.90 Current Price is $45.52 Difference: minus $2.62 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $41.95, suggesting downside of -7.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 230.49 cents and EPS of 355.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 425.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 308.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 190.41 cents and EPS of 347.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 403.3, implying annual growth of -5.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 295.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGC    COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $2.64

Bell Potter rates ((CGC)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Bell Potter updates forecasts for Costa Group to account for a higher level of farm cost inflation than previously expected for the 2023-2024 crops. Recent weeks have revealed material uplifts in farm cost inflation, and particularly in fertiliser and agricultural chemical input costs.

The broker continues to consider issues seasonal rather than structural. Pricing trends have remained strong year-to-date according to the broker, with domestic pricing, exclusive of citrus and avocados, up 15% year-on-year. 

Given recent share price recovery, the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target price increases to $2.90 from $2.75.

This report was published on November 28, 2022.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.64 Difference: $0.26
If CGC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.72, suggesting upside of 2.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.1, implying annual growth of -14.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.0, implying annual growth of 109.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL    CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $300.11

Jarden rates ((CSL)) as Overweight (2) –

CSL has announced the receipt of FDA approval for Hemgenix (previously known as Etranadez), a one-time gene therapy for the treatment of hemophilia B.

While the announcement was largely expected by the market, the analyst considers the pricing is significantly more favourable than previously expected. CSL has set the list price at US$3.5m, making it the world's most expensive treatment.

The broker increases its revenue and margins estimates and raises its target to $322.52 from $315.38, noting the ramp-up of Hemgenix extends beyond FY25. Overweight.

This report was published on November 25, 2022.

Target price is $322.52 Current Price is $300.11 Difference: $22.41
If CSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $327.03, suggesting upside of 9.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 326.56 cents and EPS of 707.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 816.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 379.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 439.51 cents and EPS of 952.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1021.0, implying annual growth of 25.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 466.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ERD    EROAD LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $1.10

Bell Potter rates ((ERD)) as Buy (1) –

Eroad has reported a normalised first half earnings loss of -NZ$3.4m, a better result than Bell Potter had anticipated given better than expected normalised revenue. Net debt increased to NZ$32.9m by the end of September, but the company still has reasonable headroom on its debt facility according to the broker.

Full year revenue guidance of NZ$154-164m was reiterated, but the company pushed out its NZ$250m revenue target beyond FY25 given market conditions. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.20 from $2.50.

This report was published on November 28, 2022.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $1.1
If ERD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.26.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 19.71.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HVN    HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $4.25

Jarden rates ((HVN)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden raises its FY23 EPS forecast for Harvey Norman by around 7%, largely driven by Australia (also by other regions), following a stronger-than-expected trading update for the four months to the end of October.

The analyst considers the key (new) news was the provision by management of an 80 store target in Malaysia by 2028, up from 28 at present. As a result, forecasts for Asian medium-term earnings (EBITDA) are increased by 20%.

The broker retains its Neutral rating though value may be emerging as a housing downturn is factored in and there's potential upside via the Asian expansion. Caution is warranted due to increasing entrants into the appliances space (like Amazon) and consumer headwinds.

The target rises to $4.20 from $4.00.

This report was published on November 25, 2022.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.25 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 8.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.5, implying annual growth of -37.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.4, implying annual growth of -10.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KGN    KOGAN.COM LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $3.35

Jarden rates ((KGN)) as Underweight (4) –

Kogan.com's gross sales for the first four months of FY23 fell by -38% on the previous corresponding period, a miss compared to Jarden's -21% forecast.

While the broker lowers its earnings forecasts, lower cost growth assumptions over the longer term provide an offset, and the target is barely changed at $3.37, down from $3.38.  A return to breakeven is expected in FY24.

The analyst retains an Underweight rating due to competitive intensity across Australian online retail, with marketplaces facing the greatest headwinds. Slowing revenue and customer growth is expected over FY23 and FY24, with cost cuts required to maintain profitability.

This report was published on November 25, 2022.

Target price is $3.37 Current Price is $3.35 Difference: $0.02
If KGN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 71.28.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3350.00.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KME    KIP MCGRATH EDUCATION CENTRES LIMITED

Overnight Price: $0.84

CCZ Equities rates ((KME)) as No Rating (-1) –

CCZ Equities initiates coverage on omnichannel tutoring company Kip McGrath Education Centres. 

The analyst's investment thesis incorporates a FY23 recovery in A&NZ lesson numbers post covid headwinds. In the medium term, upside is expected from the adoption of best practice by underperforming centres and  a material lift in royalty rates.

The store rollout projection is conservative, according to the broker, with the UK market considered under-penetrated. Long-term growth is expected from a shift to higher-earning Corporate centres compared to the Silver/Gold centres.

The company's parent to parent (P2P) tutoring marketplace (called Tutorfly) is also having significant success winning contracts with education districts in the US, notes CCZ Equities.

The broker provides neither a rating nor a 12-month target price.

This report was published on November 21, 2022.

Current Price is $0.84. Target price not assessed.

Forecast for FY23:

CCZ Equities forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.12 cents and EPS of 6.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.54.

Forecast for FY24:

CCZ Equities forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.84 cents and EPS of 8.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.40.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCK    NICK SCALI LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $11.30

Jarden rates ((NCK)) as Underweight (4) –

The trading update by Nick Scali for the financial year to the end of October was well ahead of Jarden's estimates and FY23 profit guidance implies an around 23% beat over the consensus estimate for the 1H. 

The analyst explains sales benefited from an easing in supply chain delivery pressures. While the gross margin was considered in line, it is expected to grow from synergies associated with the Plush acquisition.

Despite these positives, the broker notes the consumer backdrop is getting worse and maintains an Underweight rating. It's felt the company's customer demographic is particularly exposed to falling house prices, rate hikes and general inflation.

The target rises to $9.50 from $9.20 on Jarden's forecast earnings upgrades.

This report was published on November 25, 2022.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $11.30 Difference: minus $1.8 (current price is over target).
If NCK meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 80.10 cents and EPS of 85.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.15.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 60.10 cents and EPS of 90.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.46.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NOL    NOBLEOAK LIFE LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $1.78

Shaw and Partners rates ((NOL)) as Buy (1) –

Having delivered in-force premiums growth of 40% in the last fiscal year, NobleOak Life is guiding to 20% growth in the coming year, and reports premiums are up 7% in the first four months of the year.

Full year guidance is a notable beat to industry growth of 5% and slightly ahead of Shaw and Partners' forecast.

The broker highlights a good start to the year for the company, with the Australian life insurance market showing signs of improvement. One of the few companies benefiting from rising interest rates, rates are providing a tailwind for NobleOak Life's investment returns and the company expects an increased contribution from its portfolio but remains conservative in its investment approach.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.85 from $2.80.

This report was published on November 25, 2022.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $1.78 Difference: $1.065
If NOL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.22.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.44.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NPR    NEWMARK PROPERTY REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.38

Moelis rates ((NPR)) as Buy (1) –

Newmark Property REIT anticipates the Preston development in Melbourne will be complete by mid-2023 following labour and material shortages that pushed back the original settlement date from July 2022. Despite the delay, Moelis notes minimal impacts to earnings. 

The broker anticipates the REIT's gearing to settle around 36% by early FY24, following Preston's settlement, but expects the acquisition of Underwood on revised terms would lift gearing above 40%.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.73 from $1.85.

This report was published on November 24, 2022.

Target price is $1.73 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.355
If NPR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.18.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.80 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.45.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAN    QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $6.24

Goldman Sachs rates ((QAN)) as Buy (1) –

Following increased guidance, Goldman Sachs assumes increased yields for Qantas Airways and expects FY23 unit revenues will exceed pre-pandemic levels by 35%.

The company noted the consumer’s continued prioritisation of travel spend and guided to FY23 profit (PBT) in the range of $1.35-1.45bn compared to $1.2-1.3bn previously.

Stronger cash generation suggest to the analyst ongoing revenue received in advance (RRIA) momentum, and therefore strong demand/yield momentum into the 2H.

The target increases by 4% to $8.20. Buy.

This report was published on November 23, 2022.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $6.24 Difference: $1.96
If QAN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.57, suggesting upside of 20.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 90.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.7, implying annual growth of 7.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO    RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $109.62

Goldman Sachs rates ((RIO)) as Buy (1) –

In the wake of a modernised joint venture (50:50) agreement with Wright Prospecting, Goldman Sachs believes the development of the Rhodes Ridge iron ore deposit in the East Pilbara is potentially significant for Rio Tinto.

The development could lift system capacity, utilise spare rail and port infrastructure and help close the medium-term free cashflow/tonne gap with BHP Group ((BHP)), explains the analyst.

The target climbs to $114.7 from $112.6. Buy.

This report was published on November 24, 2022.

Target price is $114.70 Current Price is $109.62 Difference: $5.08
If RIO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $104.43, suggesting downside of -4.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 687.19 cents and EPS of 1143.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1265.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 713.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 598.43 cents and EPS of 911.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1038.3, implying annual growth of -17.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 692.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR    SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $5.00

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SFR)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity raises its target for Sandfire Resources to $6.00 from $4.75 after allowing for the recent capital raising and after the broker increases its multiple for the company.

The analyst was surprised by the $200m capital raise at $4.30, but on reflection new CEO Brendan Harris was always likely to clear the decks upon taking up his role.

Sandfire is Canaccord's preferred way to gain base metal exposure in the sector, given the potential departure of OZ Minerals ((OZL)) due to takeover.

The broker feels production momentum at Matsa and the commissioning of Motheo could create a significant copper force on the ASX. Hold.

This report was published on November 24, 2022.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $1
If SFR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.63, suggesting downside of -7.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -12.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 312.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UNI    UNIVERSAL STORE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $5.00

Jarden rates ((UNI)) as Buy (1) –

Up to the end of October, financial year-to-date sales for Universal Store grew by 40% year-on-year. As a result, Jarden will raise its FY23 sales estimate by 8% and the consensus forecast is expected to increase by around 12%.

The broker observes freight costs are starting to benefit gross margins, while further direct sourcing benefits are coming through. It's thought management commentary suggests a solid sales trajectory, while the opening of 4-5 stores in the 2H lends momentum.

The result confirms Universal Store as Jarden's top pick within fashion and the Buy rating is maintained. The target rises to $7.00 from $6.50 on stronger sales estimates, offset by a rise in the broker's weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

This report was published on November 25, 2022.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $2
If UNI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 11.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.1, implying annual growth of 32.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 52.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.2, implying annual growth of 22.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WSP    WHISPIR LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $0.52

Shaw and Partners rates ((WSP)) as Buy (1) –

Whispir has refrained from providing full year revenue or annual recurring revenue guidance at its annual general, suggesting short-term visibility remains a challenge, according to Shaw and Partners.

The broker feels mid-term revenue growth, gross margin and earnings margin targets all suggest management remains confident in the outlook beyond immediate issues. 

The company detailed the decline experienced in the first quarter was importantly not broad-based, but driven by three state health departments, and other industries appear poised for growth. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.50 from $1.70.

This report was published on November 25, 2022.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.98
If WSP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 188% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 16.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.23.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.44.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ZIP    ZIP CO LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.74

Shaw and Partners rates ((ZIP)) as Buy (1) –

With domestic buy now pay later likely facing further legislative and regulatory impacts, and Afterpay to launch a long duration lending product, Shaw and Partners believes events likely increase the strategic value of Zip Co's global operations. 

The broker notes Zip Co has products and origination concepts that are already credit regulated, meaning the company would be minimally impacted by further domestic legislation. Further, it considers Zip Co to have the widest reaching tech stack in the segment. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.24 from $2.60.

This report was published on November 28, 2022.

Target price is $2.24 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $1.5
If ZIP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 203% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.67, suggesting downside of -12.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -22.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -15.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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