Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Dec 13, 2023

This story features CHAMPION IRON LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CIA

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ANP   CIA   CU6   CVW   CXM   DDR   DGH   DTL   GTK   IRE   KYP   LNW   MDR   MIN   MTS   MXI   PMV (2)   RKN  

ANP    ANTISENSE THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.05

Taylor Collison rates ((ANP)) as Outperform, Speculative (2) –

After a period of no research coverage on Antisense Therapeutics, Taylor Collison resumes with an Outperform rating and 15c target price.

The company is currently enrolling patients in a randomised Phase IIb trial of its lead drug ATL1102 in non-ambulant patients with the fatal inherited muscle wasting disease Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD).

The trial will likely form the basis for discussions with potential partners, notes the broker, who could undertake the final steps in clinical development and commercialise the drug.

Trial results, if sufficiently positive, could be used to support an application for marketing approval of ATL1102, explains the analyst.

This report was published on December 1, 2023.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.096
If ANP meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 178% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of minus 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.15.

Forecast for FY25:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.71.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIA    CHAMPION IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $7.78

Jarden rates ((CIA)) as Buy (1) –

Champion Iron has announced the closure of a US$230m term loan facility, effectively retiring the US$400m balance of its revolving credit facility, freeing up US$400m in liquidity to supplement operating free cash flow.

Jarden estimates this leaves Champion Iron with sufficient operating free cash flow to fund the capital expenditure required to augment the phase II concentrator at Bloom Lake, estimated at CAD$470m.

The broker, however, is increasingly expectant that the company will pursue modification of both concentrators, delivering at least 15m tonnes per annum of direct reduction pellet feed product.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $8.54 from $7.44.

This report was published on December 1, 2023.

Target price is $8.54 Current Price is $7.78 Difference: $0.76
If CIA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.47 cents and EPS of 79.14 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.83.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.12 cents and EPS of 87.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.90.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CU6    CLARITY PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $1.69

Wilsons rates ((CU6)) as Overweight (1) –

Clarity Pharmaceuticals has released additional data from its heranostic prostate cancer trial, with the initial cohort three patients given the highest dose, and the company receiving the green light to recruit a final three patients for this cohort.

According to Clarity Pharmaceuticals, two of the three patients to have received this dose have reported prostate specific antigen (PSA) declines of -40% and more than -90% within eight weeks of dosing.

Particularly impressive, says Wilsons, is early indications of the results of multi-dosing, with a cohort two patient returning undetectable PSA levels and undetectable levels of cancer in two lesions following a second dosing.

The Overweight rating and target price of $1.55 are retained.

This report was published on November 30, 2023.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If CU6 meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.25.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.71.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CVW    CLEARVIEW WEALTH LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $0.57

Taylor Collison rates ((CVW)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

As Clearview Wealth is currently winning 11% of all new life insurance business sold through advisers in Australia, and shares are trading at an around -40% discount to Taylor Collison's estimate of fair value, coverage is initiated with a Buy rating.

The company's current total market share is only 3.2% of a $10bn market, which has grown at an around 5% historical compound annual growth rate (CAGR), notes the analyst. An 83c target is set.

The broker sees no impediment to market share gain given the industry has now ‘rebased’ following the Hayne Royal Commission and Clearview's operations are now more focused, having exited its financial advice (CAF) business.

This report was published on December 1, 2023.

Target price is $0.83 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.26
If CVW meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Forecast for FY24:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.40 cents and EPS of 5.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.96.

Forecast for FY25:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.40 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.26.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CXM    CENTREX LIMITED

Overnight Price: $0.07

Taylor Collison rates ((CXM)) as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) –

Taylor Collison believes it will only require modest capex to transition Centrex's Ardmore Phosphate mine in Queensland to a more cost-efficient operation.

Agriflex is the company's 100% owned market-facing brand behind the Ardmore Project, explains the broker, and several offtake agreements are in place with agricultural groups like Incitec Pivot ((IPL)), Samsung C&T and  Ameropa.

Management continues to invest and focus on increasing production rates at Ardmore in anticipation of larger and more frequent shipments. Taylor Collison initiates coverage with a Speculative Buy rating.

Management is aiming to complete the Stage 1.5 expansion plan by the end of 2024 to increase output to 625ktpa.

No 12-month target price or EPS forecasts were evident within Taylor Collison's research note.

This report was published on December 11, 2023.

Current Price is $0.07. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DDR    DICKER DATA LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $12.15

Jarden rates ((DDR)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (2) –

Jarden initiates coverage on Dicker Data with an Overweight recommendation, which is one notch below Buy in the broker’s ratings system. A $12.31 target price is set.

Before the analysts upgrade to Buy they await one of the following conditions: a re-acceleration in hardware sales after macroeconomic headwinds subside; decreasing interest rates (Jarden anticipates one more hike); a faster-than-expected improvement in operational margins for past acquisitions.

Dicker Data is continuing to take share in an Information and Communication Technology (ICT) market, which is expected (by Jarden) to grow at around 7% in 2024.

Moreover, the company is well positioned to benefit from the AI super-trend, according to the analysts. While there should only be a modest short-term impact, material upside risk is expected if the technology delivers even a fraction of its potential.

This report was published on December 5, 2023.

Target price is $12.31 Current Price is $12.15 Difference: $0.16
If DDR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 36.88 cents and EPS of 45.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.76.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 34.13 cents and EPS of 51.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.59.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DGH    DESANE GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $0.93

Taylor Collison rates ((DGH)) as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (2) –

Desane Group, an investor in and developer of Australian property is focused largely on industrial property assets, explains Taylor Collison, though is also experienced in commercial and residential development. Research is initiated with an Outperform rating.

The broker highlights an experienced management team and a largely unencumbered project pipeline that should create development activity for the next five years.

With minimal net debt and $82m in property assets and development inventory, the analyst doesn't expect reliance upon large debt funding to begin executing the project pipeline.

No target price is set by Taylor Collison.

This report was published on December 1, 2023.

Current Price is $0.93. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 54.41.

Forecast for FY25:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 38.54.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DTL    DATA#3 LIMITED.

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $8.20

Jarden rates ((DTL)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Jarden initiates research coverage on Data#3 with a Buy rating given a proven ability to grow services off a low base through economic headwinds, as well as the company’s exposure to both software tailwinds and Microsoft.

The company also has a positive exposure to interest rates and is able to take share in Australian states where it is under-penetrated due to its competitive advantage, explains the broker. A target price of $8.93 is set.

Data#3 is continuing to take share in an Information and Communication Technology (ICT) market which is expected (by Jarden) to grow at around 7% in 2024.

Moreover, the company is well positioned to benefit from the AI super-trend, according to the analysts. While there should only be a modest short-term impact, material upside risk is expected if the technology delivers even a fraction of its potential.

This report was published on December 5, 2023.

Target price is $8.93 Current Price is $8.20 Difference: $0.73
If DTL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.80, suggesting downside of -4.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.01 cents and EPS of 27.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.8, implying annual growth of 11.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.72 cents and EPS of 31.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.9, implying annual growth of 11.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GTK    GENTRACK GROUP LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $5.90

Jarden rates ((GTK)) as Underweight (4) –

At a recent strategy day, Gentrack Group highlighted that product innovation required by the energy transition should prove a tailwind for the utilities business.

Jarden concurs Gentrack Group should be well positioned to benefit from this trend, and the additional flexibility required in customer billing software. With legacy players having 75% of the market share, there remains attractive opportunity for Gentrack Group, says Jarden.

The Underweight rating and target price of NZ$5.00 are retained.

This report was published on December 1, 2023.

Current Price is $5.90. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.45.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.11.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IRE    IRESS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $7.94

Wilsons rates ((IRE)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight (1) –

Wilsons has been impressed by the speed of turnaround from Iress, with cost initiatives appearing to take effect amid FY24 earnings upgrades of 8-9%, which, notes the broker, are expected to drop through to net profit.

The broker expects the company's mortgage segment to be the next divestment target, and potential proceeds exceeding $100m could deliver meaningful balance sheet deleveraging and temper the return on invested capital trajectory.

The rating is upgraded to Overweight from Underweight and the target price increases to $8.16 from $5.68.

This report was published on December 1, 2023.

Target price is $8.16 Current Price is $7.94 Difference: $0.22
If IRE meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.56, suggesting upside of 7.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.5, implying annual growth of -94.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 529.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 31.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of 1900.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KYP    KINATICO LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $0.11

Taylor Collison rates ((KYP)) as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (2) –

Regulatory technology (Reg-Tech) workforce software business Kinatico is well progressed in transitioning to a predominantly recurring revenue model, explains Taylor Collison.

There has been zero customer churn in the last 18 months (during the 15%-complete transition), along with higher quality revenue streams, points out the analyst, who begins research coverage with an Outperform rating.

The company is primarily focused on daily workforce management through its software solutions and OnCite platform. SaaS revenue has increased to $5.1m in FY23 from $0.6m in FY22.

Additionally, earnings have been diversified following the Bright acquisition in 2021, allowing customer’s daily compliance requirements to be addressed through the entire employee lifecycle.

The company became profitable in FY23 following a 110% increase in SaaS revenue and improved operational automation with employee numbers falling by around -30%.

No 12-month target price is set.

This report was published on December 1, 2023.

Current Price is $0.11. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 61.11.

Forecast for FY25:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNW    LIGHT & WONDER INC

Gaming – Overnight Price: $126.99

Jarden rates ((LNW)) as Overweight (2) –

Light & Wonder has commenced its corporate social responsibility (CSR) journey, and Jarden believes the company now has acceptable governance procedures in place while its broader ESG credentials are evolving.

The broker describes Light & Wonder's ESG credentials as evolving, noting it is now more commercially compliant than peers. The broker expects a "laser like" adherence to a heavily regulated and compliant sector should work in its favour amid the opening of US iGaming markets.

The Overweight rating and target price of $141.00 are retained.

This report was published on December 1, 2023.

Target price is $141.00 Current Price is $126.99 Difference: $14.01
If LNW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 158.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 79.92.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 372.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.05.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MDR    MEDADVISOR LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.21

Moelis rates ((MDR)) as Buy (1) –

MedAdvisor has reported 10-15% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half, a result which Moelis notes is particularly strong given the company is cycling off the benefits of a large covid awareness program in the previous year.

Revenue from vaccine programs accounted for only 20% of total revenue in the half, but to offset the reduced covid related revenue the company has diversified new vaccine programs, expanded existing programs and chronic medication awareness programs.

The Buy rating and target price of 38 cents are retained.

This report was published on December 4, 2023.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.17
If MDR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 105.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 52.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN    MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $61.02

Jarden rates ((MIN)) as Sell (5) –

Jarden incorporates around $840m worth of lithium acquisitions since June 30 into forecasts for Mineral Resources, of which only $46m related to scrip, with the balance in cash.

These acquisitions were largely funded via proceeds from the recent issuance of US$1.1bn in unsecured notes at a cost of 9.25% per annum, explain the analysts.

While only preliminary estimates are included in the broker's forecasts, the company also appears to have successfully acquired the Bald Hill lithium mine in WA from its administrators for an initial consideration of around $260m in cash.

Jarden downgrades its FY24 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by -9%, and the target price falls to 48.30 from $50.30. The Sell rating is unchanged.

This report was published on December 4, 2023.

Target price is $48.30 Current Price is $61.02 Difference: minus $12.72 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $74.07, suggesting upside of 21.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 171.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 333.3, implying annual growth of 161.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 128.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 289.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 683.9, implying annual growth of 105.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 302.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS    METCASH LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $3.59

Jarden rates ((MTS)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden assesses Metcash's 1H result was "solid" in a tough market, though Hardware was weaker-than-expected due to higher costs. Grocery was a beat against the analyst's forecast, after excluding -$2.8m of restructuring costs.

Management noted the 2H has begun well, and also announced a new -$14-16m cost-out program (with savings to begin in H2), which the broker suggests should provide the market with confidence in the earnings outlook.

Overweight. Target 4.40.

This report was published on December 4, 2023.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: $0.81
If MTS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 11.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 32.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of 6.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 33.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.3, implying annual growth of -0.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MXI    MAXIPARTS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $2.52

Taylor Collison rates ((MXI)) as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (2) –

Due to current favourable industry dynamics for MaxiPARTS' core truck/trailer parts division, Taylor Collison is expecting a step-change in EPS growth to around 22% per annum for FY24 and FY25, up from 11.8% during FY23.

Even after vehicle backlogs clear (which could be two years), the broker expects the trend of improved supplier and customer adoption should remain as a tailwind for the sector.

These better trends are due to expanding vehicle content and greater sophistication of the aftermarket channel, explains Taylor Collison.

Given a conservative balance sheet, capital management may also be in prospect, suggests the analyst, who begins research coverage with an Outperform rating. A $3.40 target price is set.

This report was published on December 1, 2023.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: $0.88
If MXI meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.66.

Forecast for FY25:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.70 cents and EPS of 24.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.37.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMV    PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $26.03

Goldman Sachs rates ((PMV)) as Sell (5) –

Following an AGM trading update by Premier Investments, Goldman Sachs retains a Sell rating but raises the target price to $22.30 from $21.50.

Premier Retail earnings (EBIT) pre-AASB increased by 2% partly because of a 30bps higher earnings margin due to both a higher gross profit margin (GPM) and lower rent/sales, explains the the broker.

Sell-rated Goldman remains concerned over a number of issues including potential for Gen Z and Millennial families to cut spending and trade-down,mature growth for the Apparel Brands, and increasing competition.

This report was published on December 5, 2023.

Target price is $22.30 Current Price is $26.03 Difference: minus $3.73 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.12, suggesting upside of 0.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 156.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.2, implying annual growth of -8.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 118.00 cents and EPS of 154.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.8, implying annual growth of 1.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 114.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((PMV)) as Neutral (3) –

A FY24 trading update revealed Retail EBIT (pre-AASB16) for Premier Investments were an around 11% beat compared to the consensus forecast, driven by stronger revenues, partly due to record Black Friday sales, explains Jarden.

While no sales guidance was provided, the analysts suggest foot traffic data indicates good growth, with Portmans and Dotti leading the  recovery.

The broker's target falls to $24.20 from $24.50 on a higher assumed risk-free rate. The Neutral rating is unchanged. 

This report was published on December 4, 2023.

Target price is $24.20 Current Price is $26.03 Difference: minus $1.83 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.12, suggesting upside of 0.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 127.00 cents and EPS of 160.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.2, implying annual growth of -8.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 128.00 cents and EPS of 159.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.8, implying annual growth of 1.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 114.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RKN    RECKON LIMITED

Accountancy – Overnight Price: $0.57

Taylor Collison rates ((RKN)) as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (2) –

Following the $100m sale of Reckon's APS Group in August 2022, Taylor Collison thinks the market is undervaluing the remaining Business and Legal Groups. Research is initiated with an Outperform rating.

The company offers accounting solutions for domestic SME's and legal practice workflows in the lucrative markets, according to the broker, of the UK and the US.

The analyst sees an opportunity for the company's nQueue Zebraworks (Legal Group) software as it consolidates and grows its US customers.

Highlighting both optionality and a margin of safety, Taylor Collison forecasts the company will generate $8.9m of free cash flow (FCF) in FY23, excluding development spend on Legal.

No 12-month target price is set.

This report was published on December 1, 2023.

Current Price is $0.57. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.13.

Forecast for FY24:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.18.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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