Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Apr 16, 2024

This story features ALLIGATOR ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AGE

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AGE   ASB   BPT   COE   CTT   CVN   CXO   DMP   EQT   GMD   IEL   KAR   MAH   NXT   ORG   STO   WDS  

AGE    ALLIGATOR ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $0.06

Petra Capital rates ((AGE)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Petra Capital initiates coverage on Alligator Energy which owns the Samphire Uranium project in South Australia with a Buy rating and 11c target price. Management aims to grow and de-risk Samphire towards first production from FY29.

The broker expects the current resource will grow materially after an extensive exploration campaign, which began in February this year.

The analyst also highlights potential exploration upside across Alligator's portfolio including Nabarlek North in the Northern Territory and Big Lake in South Australia, which is expected to commence a 5,600m drilling campaign in June.

This report was published on April 15, 2024.

Target price is $0.11 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.049
If AGE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 80% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASB    AUSTAL LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies – Overnight Price: $2.42

Petra Capital rates ((ASB)) as Buy (1) –

While Austal has outperformed share market indices over the last two years, Petra Capital suggests weaker-than-expected earnings margins in FY23 and FY24 have subdued a potentially better performance.

Because of this view, the broker believes any positive surprise on the earnings margin front will be a key catalyst for a higher share price.

The Buy rating is maintained and the target is increased to $3.14 from $3.08.

This report was published on April 13, 2024.

Target price is $3.14 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.72
If ASB meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 10.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 12.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 11.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of 161.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.62

Jarden rates ((BPT)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden has reviewed its energy sector coverage, ahead of the March quarter reporting season. While oil prices appear largely flat on the previous quarter, the broker expects Woodside Energy and Santos to benefit from lagged contract pricing. 

The broker assumes higher oil pricing will emerge in 2024, inspiring increased valuations alongside expectations of a lower Australian dollar.

Jarden retains its preference for Karoon Energy over Beach Energy and Cooper Energy.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.75 from $1.70.

This report was published on April 11, 2024.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.125
If BPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.95, suggesting upside of 19.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 13.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of -6.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 21.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.9, implying annual growth of 51.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE    COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.22

Jarden rates ((COE)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden has reviewed its energy sector coverage, ahead of the March quarter reporting season. While oil prices appear largely flat on the previous quarter, the broker expects Woodside Energy and Santos to benefit from lagged contract pricing. 

The broker assumes higher oil pricing will emerge in FY24, inspiring increased valuations alongside expectations of a lower Australian dollar.

Jarden retains its preference for Karoon Energy over Beach Energy and Cooper Energy.

The Overweight rating and target price of 24 cents are retained.

This report was published on April 11, 2024.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.02
If COE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.25, suggesting upside of 13.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 220.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.2, implying annual growth of 100.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTT    CETTIRE LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $3.15

Petra Capital rates ((CTT)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital assesses a strong 3Q update by Cettire with management also confirming a 4Q launch into China, opening up a significant new growth frontier.

For the 3Q, the analyst highlights an acceleration of revenue in February/March over January with active customers rising by 84% year-on-year due to an ongoing strong contribution from repeat customers.

The broker notes 3Q revenue growth was underpinned by ongoing broad-based momentum in both Established and Emerging Markets, while the Delivered margin remained above 20%.

The broker's Buy rating and $5.10 target price are retained.

This report was published on April 15, 2024.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $3.15 Difference: $1.95
If CTT meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.45.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.90.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CVN    CARNARVON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.20

Jarden rates ((CVN)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden has reviewed its energy sector coverage, ahead of the March quarter reporting season. While oil prices appear largely flat on the previous quarter, the broker expects Woodside Energy and Santos to benefit from lagged contract pricing. 

The broker assumes higher oil pricing will emerge in FY24, inspiring increased valuations alongside expectations of a lower Australian dollar.

With Carnarvon Energy not in production, the Buy rating and target price of 25 cents are retained.

This report was published on April 11, 2024.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.05
If CVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CXO    CORE LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.15

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CXO)) as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) –

All key lithium products saw pricing fall again in the March quarter, notes Canaccord Genuity, driven by ongoing soft demand as purchasers run down their inventories, and due to continued supply additions.

The broker recently suggested lithium pricing has bottomed after noting a recovery in the spodumene price towards the back end of the March quarter. No changes are made to Canaccord's lithium price forecasts.

The rating for Core Lithium is upgraded to Hold from Sell on valuation and the target rises to 15c from 14c. The analysts believe the wet season has likely negatively impacted the Finniss operations.

This report was published on April 11, 2024.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If CXO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DMP    DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $38.58

Goldman Sachs rates ((DMP)) as Neutral (3) –

Following Domino's Pizza Enterprises' strategy day, Goldman Sachs was disappointed by a lack of transparency and conviction on how management will fix the core problem regions such as France and Japan.

The broker feels only further discounting and a pausing of the store roll-out in these two countries will restore profitability.

As a result of management's store-roll-out pause, Domino's will miss its 7-9% store roll-out target for FY24 and FY25.

Management will be focusing more on products than digital leadership, yet the analysts believe such leadership is foundational for Domino's to maintain its strategic moat including product innovation.

The Neutral rating and $39.70 target are maintained. 

This report was published on April 15, 2024.

Target price is $39.70 Current Price is $38.58 Difference: $1.12
If DMP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $50.25, suggesting upside of 30.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 113.00 cents and EPS of 142.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.4, implying annual growth of 200.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 138.00 cents and EPS of 175.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 184.9, implying annual growth of 33.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EQT    EQT HOLDINGS LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $30.20

Wilsons rates ((EQT)) as Overweight (1) –

EQT Holdings has released a strong third quarter update, says Wilsons, with funds up 6.1% on the previous quarter in a beat to the broker's expectations.

The broker estimates net inflows of $6.7bn and market growth of $4.4bn over the quarter. Near-term cost synergies of $2.9m and revenue synergies of $5.8m were re-iterated, and the company noted potential additional revenue synergies could emerge in FY26.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $33.90 from $31.50.

This report was published on April 12, 2024.

Target price is $33.90 Current Price is $30.20 Difference: $3.7
If EQT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 107.90 cents and EPS of 147.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.45.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 137.40 cents and EPS of 183.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.48.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMD    GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.90

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GMD)) as Buy (1) –

Management at Genesis Minerals recently provided longer-term forecasts for both the Leonora and Laverton operations.

The five-year strategic growth plan outlined production, costs (AISC), and growth capex guidance for FY25-29 as well as indicative production from FY30-34.

Additionally, management provided FY24 guidance for the first time for production of 130-140koz at costs of between $2,300-2,400/oz, which compares to Canaccord Genuity's forecast for 143koz at a cost of $2,045/oz.

The broker's Buy rating is maintained and the target falls to $2.40 from $2.60. On balance, Canaccord remains positive on Genesis Minerals. It's felt a strong balance sheet and access to debt will be adequate to fund the company's growth endeavours.

This report was published on April 12, 2024.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.505
If GMD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.94, suggesting upside of 2.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 94.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of 37.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IEL    IDP EDUCATION LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $16.03

Goldman Sachs rates ((IEL)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs believes FY25 will represent the peak of industry headwinds and, hence, the trough for IDP Education's volumes and earnings. The company's structural growth outlook and business quality remain unchanged, in the broker's view.

Based on industry feedback, Goldman believes Australian university volumes are still growing, despite negative newsflow. Also, detail on Canadian cap implementation implies the impact on the company should be well below the -28% headline visa reduction.

Due to the Canadian cap, the analysts lowers overall IELTS volumes forecasts for FY24 and FY25 by -9% and -10%, respectively.

The Buy rating is maintained and the target lowered to $25.30 from $26.60.

This report was published on April 15, 2024.

Target price is $25.30 Current Price is $16.03 Difference: $9.27
If IEL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.33, suggesting upside of 51.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.3, implying annual growth of 16.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.7, implying annual growth of 13.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR    KAROON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $2.33

Jarden rates ((KAR)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden has reviewed its energy sector coverage, ahead of the March quarter reporting season. While oil prices appear largely flat on the previous quarter, the broker expects Woodside Energy and Santos to benefit from lagged contract pricing. 

The broker assumes higher oil pricing will emerge in FY24, inspiring increased valuations alongside expectations of a lower Australian dollar.

Jarden retains its preference for Karoon Energy over Beach Energy and Cooper Energy.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.50 from $2.40.

This report was published on April 11, 2024.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.17
If KAR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting upside of 18.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 28.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.1, implying annual growth of -12.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAH    MACMAHON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.24

Petra Capital rates ((MAH)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital envisages longer-term growth opportunities for Macmahon due to improved cash flows as a more capital-light operating model is adopted for one of the company's most capital-intensive contracts, Dawson South.

The company expects to receive $44m from the sale to Anglo American of assets currently deployed at Dawson South at a transfer price "at or above" the company's book value.

The Buy rating and 30c target are reiterated, with Petra Capital noting the profit and loss impact of the sale will be minimal given lower depreciation will be offset by lower revenue.

This report was published on April 15, 2024.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.055
If MAH meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 3.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.45.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 4.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.10.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXT    NEXTDC LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $15.88

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NXT)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity increases its target for NextDC to $18.50 from $14.65 following the $1.3bn non-renounceable entitlement offer to accelerate the rollout of the data centres portfolio. The Buy rating is maintained.

FY24 guidance remained unchanged from the half year results released in February.

The analysts feel it is appropriate to base a valuation around the company's order book, which has nearly 70MW of incremental capacity to come on stream over the next five years.

Management noted hyperscale customer contracts generate high-single-digit/low-double-digit percentage returns while enterprise customers are in the high teens/low 20% range.

This report was published on April 15, 2024.

Target price is $14.65 Current Price is $15.88 Difference: minus $1.23 (current price is over target).
If NXT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $18.77, suggesting upside of 18.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 294.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 337.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -17.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG    ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $9.76

Jarden rates ((ORG)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden has reviewed its energy sector coverage, ahead of the March quarter reporting season. While oil prices appear largely flat on the previous quarter, the broker expects Woodside Energy and Santos to benefit from lagged contract pricing. 

The broker assumes higher oil pricing will emerge in FY24, inspiring increased valuations alongside expectations of a lower Australian dollar.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $9.75 from $9.35.

This report was published on April 11, 2024.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $9.76 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.46, suggesting downside of -3.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 66.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.3, implying annual growth of 16.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 89.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.4, implying annual growth of 12.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO    SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $7.88

Jarden rates ((STO)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden has reviewed its energy sector coverage, ahead of the March quarter reporting season. While oil prices appear largely flat on the previous quarter, the broker expects Woodside Energy and Santos to benefit from lagged contract pricing. 

The broker assumes higher oil pricing will emerge in FY24, inspiring increased valuations alongside expectations of a lower Australian dollar.

Jarden retains its preference for Santos over Woodside Energy. The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $8.20 from $8.00.

This report was published on April 11, 2024.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $7.88 Difference: $0.32
If STO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.00, suggesting upside of 14.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 31.04 cents and EPS of 54.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 29.67 cents and EPS of 46.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.4, implying annual growth of 21.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WDS    WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $30.31

Jarden rates ((WDS)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden has reviewed its energy sector coverage, ahead of the March quarter reporting season. While oil prices appear largely flat on the previous quarter, the broker expects Woodside Energy and Santos to benefit from lagged contract pricing. 

The broker assumes higher oil pricing will emerge in FY24, inspiring increased valuations alongside expectations of a lower Australian dollar.

Jarden retains its preference for Santos over Woodside Energy. The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $30.00 from $29.00.

This report was published on April 11, 2024.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $30.31 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.53, suggesting upside of 10.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 184.11 cents and EPS of 230.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 197.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 153.68 cents and EPS of 195.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 183.4, implying annual growth of -7.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 141.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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