Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 20, 2025

This story features AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AZJ

The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AZJ   BMN   GDF   GTK   IAG (2)   IPH   LAU   ORA (2)   PNV   XRO (2)  

AZJ    AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $2.99

Goldman Sachs rates ((AZJ)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs updates net profit after tax (NPAT) estimates for Aurizon Holdings to reflect changes from the company’s May 2025 business update.

The broker lowers net profit forecasts by -5%, -2% and -4% for FY25-FY27, respectively.

Target price slips to $3.60 from $3.70. No change to Buy rating.

This report was published on May 16, 2025.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.61
If AZJ meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.33, suggesting upside of 11.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.3, implying annual growth of 5.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.8, implying annual growth of 15.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BMN    BANNERMAN ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $2.62

Petra Capital rates ((BMN)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital outlines the ongoing works at Etango by Bannerman Energy with cash at March quarter end at $68.8m and some -$26m committed for future works.

The analyst explains first production is currently delayed by a quarter even though the final investment decision has been deferred by a year since initiating coverage on the stock in May 2024.

Bannerman is believed to be waiting for higher pricing which should be evidenced as utilities return to the market, Petra details.

The final investment decision is expected in 2H 2025 with the stock up around 70% in recent weeks and short interest sitting at some 15-days average trading volume to cover.

The stock remains Buy rated with a $5.33 target price.

This report was published on May 16, 2025.

Target price is $5.33 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $2.71
If BMN meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 103% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 113.91.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.64.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GDF    GARDA PROPERTY GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.15

Moelis rates ((GDF)) as Buy (1) –

Garda Property has upgraded guidance for the second time in FY25, Moelis notes, with funds from operations (FFO) guidance lifted by 12% in February following a 17% rise in August.

The broker attributes earnings growth to an expanding lending book supported by capital release from the North Lakes asset sale, expected to settle in August 2025.

Post-sale, net debt is forecast to reduce to -$157m or around 28%, providing flexibility for acquisitions, developments or further lending. Buy rating retained. Target price raised to $1.60 from $1.57.

This report was published on May 15, 2025.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.455
If GDF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.20 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.27.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 10.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.34.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GTK    GENTRACK GROUP LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $10.85

Wilsons rates ((GTK)) as Overweight (1) –

Gentrack Group reported 1H25 revenue of NZ$112m, below Wilsons’ and consensus expectations due to weaker non-recurring utility revenue.

Earmings (EBITDA) of NZ$13m came in below by -17%, though earnings per share were in line, aided by FX gains and a lower tax rate.

Management’s FY25 guidance cut revenue to above NZ$230m and earnings  (EBITDA) margin above 12%, implying EBITDA is around some -20% below forecasts.

The company describes FY25 as a transition year, increasing sales and R&D investment to support medium-term targets of 15% revenue compound average growth rate and 1520% EBITDA margin. Overweight rating retained

This report was published on May 19, 2025.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $10.85 Difference: $1.25
If GTK meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.83, suggesting upside of 19.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 70.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 81.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of 55.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.3.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG    INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $8.57

Goldman Sachs rates ((IAG)) as Neutral (3) –

No change to Goldman Sachs’ forecasts for Insurance Australia Group after announcement of a strategic alliance with the Royal Automobile Club of Western Australia (RAC), and FY25 update.

The deal includes the acquisition of the RAC’s insurance business and exclusive distribution of insurance products.

The upfront cost is -$1,350m, out of which -$950m plus acquisition expenses will be amortised over the 20-year term of the distribution agreement.

The broker notes the deal will be completed in 2H26 and is expected to be EPS accretive in the first full year of ownership.

On FY25, the insurer flagged group gross written premiums are moderating, suggesting a weaker trend in 2H25.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $8.30.

This report was published on May 16, 2025.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $8.57 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.75, suggesting upside of 3.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.70 cents and EPS of 44.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.7, implying annual growth of 22.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 31.50 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.2, implying annual growth of -5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((IAG)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden raises its target for Insurance Australia Group to $8.00 from $7.70, reflecting near-term earnings upside but increasing regulatory risk tied to the proposed RAC acquisition.  The broker’s rating is also upgraded to Neutral from Overweight.

IAG will acquire RAC Insurance for -$1.35bn and enter a 20-year distribution agreement with RAC, creating a combined circa 60% share of the WA personal insurance market, observes the broker.

While the transaction is seen as strategically sound and EPS accretive by mid-to-high single digits post-synergies, Jarden highlights concerns about regulatory approval and market concentration.

The acquisition is expected to be funded organically and through modest capital initiatives, note the analysts.

This report was published on May 15, 2025.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $8.57 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.75, suggesting upside of 3.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 47.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.7, implying annual growth of 22.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 42.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.2, implying annual growth of -5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPH    IPH LIMITED

Legal – Overnight Price: $4.93

Petra Capital rates ((IPH)) as Buy (1) –

IPH Ltd’s patent filing data reflect ongoing headwinds, Petra Capital notes, with national phase filings impacted by weak Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT) trends, particularly from US applicants.

The analyst says filings for the 12 months to April 2025 fell -9.4% year-on-year for IPH versus -2.7% for the market, with IPH’s share slipping to 30.1% from 32.1%.

While direct filings improved, overall volumes remained soft and are expected to stay weak through 2H25.

Petra attributes this to a lagging US recovery, though anticipates easier comparables from June 2025.

Buy rating retained with an unchanged $8.00 target price. No change to group-level forecasts.

This report was published on May 16, 2025.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $4.93 Difference: $3.07
If IPH meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.51, suggesting upside of 31.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 45.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.6, implying annual growth of 85.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 36.40 cents and EPS of 47.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.4, implying annual growth of 6.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LAU    LINDSAY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $0.71

Wilsons rates ((LAU)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons supports Lindsay Australia’s acquisition of SRT Logistics, describing it as a logical extension to the network with potential synergies, though it sees execution risk in achieving the forecast 15% FY25 EPS accretion.

The broker notes FY25 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $8082.5m is below consensus, and SRT must deliver circa 90% earnings before interest and tax growth after a weak FY24.

Wilsons forecasts for FY25 have been revised down, but FY2627 EBITDA rises 78% driven by the anticipated SRT uplift, despite interest cost drag.

Target lifts to $0.99 from $0.87. Overweight.

This report was published on May 19, 2025.

Target price is $0.99 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.28
If LAU meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.98, suggesting upside of 36.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.30 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of -20.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.30 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.3, implying annual growth of 32.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORA    ORORA LIMITED

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $1.92

Goldman Sachs rates ((ORA)) as Neutral (3) –

Orora updated guidance for FY25, now expecting 2H25 EBIT to be in line with the year prior, before expenses previously allocated to the OPS unit divested in December. 

Goldman Sachs’ forecast of $142m was similar, minus the expense contribution.

The company’s capex guidance was lower than the broker’s, but the D&A forecast was higher, and net finance cost came out in line.

After updating forecasts, the broker’s FY25-27 EBIT estimates fell by -3%. Neutral. Target unchanged at $2.40 as valuation roll forward offset lower earnings estimates.

This report was published on May 15, 2025.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.485
If ORA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.24, suggesting upside of 14.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 11.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of -24.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 15.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of 22.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((ORA)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden maintains an Overweight rating on Orora but lowers the target price to $2.35 from $2.40 following continued weakness in Saverglass and Gawler operations.

Volatility in premium glass markets, restructuring impacts, and higher non-cash costs are weighing on earnings, note the analysts, while the Cans division remains a bright spot, returning to mid single-digit volume growth.

FY25 capex guidance has been reduced to -$285-295m, though Jarden notes spend is expected to increase in FY26 as deferred projects, such as Rocklea Cans, are executed.

Jarden expects a -$350m on-market buyback in FY26, supported by low gearing. 

This report was published on May 15, 2025.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.435
If ORA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.24, suggesting upside of 14.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.60 cents and EPS of 10.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of -24.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 14.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of 22.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNV    POLYNOVO LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $1.44

Wilsons rates ((PNV)) as Market Weight (3) –

PolyNovo reported 3Q25 revenue of $30.3m, up 36% year-on-year, with US sales up 34% in constant currency, though both missed Wilsons’ expectations.

The analyst says productivity per sales rep remains stable despite account onboarding growth, and the new MTX product contributed $3.8m year-to-date.

Commentary highlights rest of the world sales rose 12.7%, with India showing early promise and the UK delivering 62% growth, while Europe remained softer.

Polynovo also reported early encouraging outcomes from its Beta Cell collaboration for type 1 diabetes, with evidence of graft function and glycaemic improvement, the broker notes.

Market Weight rating maintained, with target price lowered to $1.62 from $1.85. FY2527 forecasts trimmed slightly.

This report was published on May 19, 2025.

Target price is $1.62 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.185
If PNV meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting upside of 57.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 478.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.2, implying annual growth of 57.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 114.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 71.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.8, implying annual growth of 133.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

XRO    XERO LIMITED

Accountancy – Overnight Price: $181.47

Goldman Sachs rates ((XRO)) as Buy (1) –

The highlight of Xero’s FY25 result, Goldman Sachs notes, was the record subscriber growth in North America despite subdued momentum in Canada, resulting in a 2% revenue beat versus the broker.

The strong performance supports the company’s decision to continue investment in that region, more than replacing NZ-related one-off investment spending. 

The company’s opex guidance was a disappointment, but the broker’s expense ratio forecast for FY26 still declined to 71.5% from 71.8% due to upgraded revenue projections. 

Buy. Target rises to $205 from $201.

This report was published on May 15, 2025.

Target price is $205.00 Current Price is $181.47 Difference: $23.53
If XRO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $207.33, suggesting upside of 14.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 205.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 88.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 197.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 91.5.

Forecast for FY27:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 257.14 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 70.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 262.4, implying annual growth of 33.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 68.8.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((XRO)) as Overweight (2) –

Xero delivered a strong FY25 result, in Jarden’s opinion, with 23% revenue growth and a Rule of 40 score of 44%.

Results were underpinned by subscriber growth, average revenue per user (ARPU) expansion, and solid free cash flow margins of 24.1%, explains the broker.

FY26 operating expense guidance of circa 71.5% implies to the analysts little margin expansion near term. However, management’s introduction of the Rule of X’ signals a willingness to invest more aggressively in revenue growth, particularly in the US.

The broker sees upside in the longer-term valuation from Xero’s ability to scale, especially if international subscriber growth and payments adoption outperform expectations.

Jarden raises its target price to $190.00 from $180.00 and maintains an Overweight rating.

This report was published on May 15, 2025.

Target price is $190.00 Current Price is $181.47 Difference: $8.53
If XRO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $207.33, suggesting upside of 14.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 100.57 cents and EPS of 198.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 91.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 197.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 91.5.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 147.90 cents and EPS of 272.82 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 66.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 262.4, implying annual growth of 33.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 68.8.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don’t have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide experienced, intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.

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