In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 10-10-25

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This story features ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALK
The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED ((ALK)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Following the end of the September quarter, Moelis has updated forecasts for gold/silver and copper companies to reflect actual prices, forex, and revised consensus assumptions.

The broker notes gold reached a record price, prompting a 15% upgrade in near term price forecasts and an 8% increase to long term forecast (US$2,812/oz)

Copper rose to US$4.75/lb amid the Grasberg disruption, though long-term assumptions remain steady. Silver prices are materially higher, benefiting producers with by-product exposure. Long-term silver price estimate is US$34.67/oz, up 21%.

Overall, gold producers saw strong valuation and earnings upgrades, while copper names gained modestly.

In the case of Alkane Resources, the broker lifted FY26-27 EBITDA forecasts by 18% and 17% respectively, and net profit estimates by 31% and 29%, respectively. This also reflects production increase following the merger with Mandalay Resources.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target price $1.50.

COCHLEAR LIMITED ((COH)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity keeps its $330 target for Cochlear but upgrades to Buy from Hold, noting prior Services downgrades have reset expectations and underlying demand for Cochlear implants (CI) remains strong.

The new Nucleus Nexa product is a key innovation, suggests the broker, featuring upgradeable firmware which enables the implant to evolve over time, an industry first.

Patients benefit from longer battery life and better connectivity, while clinicians gain improved diagnostics and programming tools, explains the analyst.

Canaccord expects Nexa to drive CI growth above 15% if uptake continues, maintaining FY26 profit forecasts at the low end of guidance  for $435-460m. 

METALS X LIMITED ((MLX)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity notes the Federal Reserve’s September rate cut and outlook, and a weaker US dollar boosted commodity prices, especially precious and industrial metals.

While precious metals benefited as inflation hedges, base metals gained from infrastructure, electrification, and data centre demand, aided by cheaper borrowing.

Aluminium (up 10%), zinc (up 7%), and tin (up 6%) were standout performers. The broker lifted 2026 price forecast for copper by 3.8%, aluminium by 4%, zinc by 4%, tin by 13.7% but cut cobalt by -3.2%.

For Metals X, the broker forecasts -16% q/q lower tin production in the September quarter, but expects an offset from strong tin price, leading to a 4% rise in estimated cash balance.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target rises to 95c from 58c.

VAULT MINERALS LIMITED ((VAU)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Following the end of the September quarter, Moelis has updated forecasts for gold/silver and copper companies to reflect actual prices, forex, and revised consensus assumptions.

The broker notes gold reached a record price, prompting a 15% upgrade in near term price forecasts and an 8% increase to long term forecast (US$2,812/oz)

Copper rose to US$4.75/lb amid the Grasberg disruption, though long-term assumptions remain steady. Silver prices are materially higher, benefiting producers with by-product exposure. Long-term silver price estimate is US$34.67/oz, up 21%.

Overall, gold producers saw strong valuation and earnings upgrades, while copper names gained modestly.

For Vault Minerals, the broker lifted FY26-27 EBITDA forecasts by 11% and 18% respectively, and net profit estimates by 19% and 39%, respectively. The FY27 estimates also reflect completion of the hedge program.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target rises to 85c from 69c.

Three ays earlier, the broker had responded as follows:

Vault Minerals delivered a strong September quarter, according to Moelis, with preliminary gold sales of 91.5koz versus the broker’s 86.4koz forecast. This outperformance is attributed to higher output at Deflector and Mount Monger.

Closing cash and bullion of $703.3m was below the broker’s $745m estimate, largely reflecting -$9.3m in share buybacks during the quarter.

Moelis highlights a strong start to FY26, with production tracking ahead of guidance and the Red 5 hedge book continuing to weigh on realised prices, estimated at around $4,500/oz. 

The broker expects the hedge position to decline sharply through FY26 and be largely cleared by FY27. Free cash flow (FCF) is expected to rise significantly as hedges unwind and the King of the Hills expansion lifts volumes.

Downgrade

AIC MINES LIMITED ((A1M)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Following the end of the September quarter, Moelis has updated forecasts for gold/silver and copper companies to reflect actual prices, forex, and revised consensus assumptions.

The broker notes gold reached a record price, prompting a 15% upgrade in near term price forecasts and an 8% increase to long term forecast (US$2,812/oz)

Copper rose to US$4.75/lb amid the Grasberg disruption, though long-term assumptions remain steady. Silver prices are materially higher, benefiting producers with by-product exposure. Long-term silver price estimate is US$34.67/oz, up 21%.

Overall, gold producers saw strong valuation and earnings upgrades, while copper names gained modestly.

In the case of AIC Mines, the broker trimmed FY26 EBITDA and net profit forecasts by -1% and -3%, respectively, but lifted FY27 by 5% and 12%, respectively. 

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target price 44c.

CAPSTONE COPPER CORP. ((CSC)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Following the end of the September quarter, Moelis has updated forecasts for gold/silver and copper companies to reflect actual prices, forex, and revised consensus assumptions.

The broker notes gold reached a record price, prompting a 15% upgrade in near term price forecasts and an 8% increase to long term forecast (US$2,812/oz)

Copper rose to US$4.75/lb amid the Grasberg disruption, though long-term assumptions remain steady. Silver prices are materially higher, benefiting producers with by-product exposure. Long-term silver price estimate is US$34.67/oz, up 21%.

Overall, gold producers saw strong valuation and earnings upgrades, while copper names gained modestly.

In the case of Capstone Copper, the broker lifted FY25-26  EBITDA forecasts by 5% and 4%, respectively, and net profit estimates by 18% and 8%, respectively. 

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target unchanged at $12.50.

ELECTRO OPTIC SYSTEMS HOLDINGS LIMITED ((EOS)) Speculative Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Electro Optic Systems has lowered FY25 revenue guidance to $115-125m from $158m, citing contract deferrals, notes Canaccord Genuity. The broker, however, believes revenue could reach $140-150m if $25m in new orders are signed before year-end.

The analysts highlight near-term opportunities including Land 400 Phase 3 (a European remote weapon system contract) and North American counter-drone systems, which could lift the backlog to around $420m.

High energy laser weapons remain the key growth driver, suggests the broker, supported by a EUR71m order.

Canaccord lifts its target price to $10.00 from $5.45 and downgrades to Speculative Buy from Buy on valuation.

GREATLAND RESOURCES LIMITED ((GGP)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Following the end of the September quarter, Moelis has updated forecasts for gold/silver and copper companies to reflect actual prices, forex, and revised consensus assumptions.

The broker notes gold reached a record price, prompting a 15% upgrade in near term price forecasts and an 8% increase to long term forecast (US$2,812/oz)

Copper rose to US$4.75/lb amid the Grasberg disruption, though long-term assumptions remain steady. Silver prices are materially higher, benefiting producers with by-product exposure. Long-term silver price estimate is US$34.67/oz, up 21%.

Overall, gold producers saw strong valuation and earnings upgrades, while copper names gained modestly.

The broker raised Greatland Resources’ FY26-27 EBITDA forecasts by 17% and 20% respectively, and net profit estimates by 18% and 21%, respectively.

Target rises to $7.90 from $7.00. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy.

ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED ((ILU)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Attended by the analysts at Canaccord Genuity, Iluka Resources hosted a site visit to its Eneabba Rare Earth Refinery and Cataby mineral sands operation near Perth.

Construction at Eneabba is 34% complete, with over 80% of project value contracted and costs tracking within the $1.7-$1.8bn budget, highlights the broker. First production is expected in 2H27, with potential upside if delivery stays on schedule.

Management is confident in commissioning but Canaccord remains cautious on utilisation until third-party feed, such as Kangankunde, is secured.

At Cataby, mining will pause from December 1 amid weak pigment feed demand, preserving around $150m in cash, notes the broker.

Canaccord lifts its target price to $6.65 from $6.15 but downgrades to Hold from Buy on valuation grounds.

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

More Highlights

ACE    ACUSENSUS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $1.35 

Wilsons rates ((ACE)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons noted from Acusensus’ FY25 result tthe UK police forces are increasingly funding deployments through National Driver Offender Retraining Scheme diversion course fees.

This funding model provides a $6m opportunity and reduces reliance on Treasury-controlled fine revenue, explains the broker. It’s thought the model could scale further as deployments increase.

Domestic catalysts for Acusensus include South Australia, the ACT and NSW, with scope for contract renewals and upsising across mobile phone and speed enforcement, explain the analysts.

In the US, Wilsons points out opportunities exist in commercial vehicle and work zone enforcement aligned with federal frameworks.

An Overweight rating and $1.21 target are maintained. 

This report was published on September 30, 2025.

Target price is $1.21 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If ACE meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 84.38.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 61.36.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVH    AVITA MEDICAL INC

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $1.66 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((AVH)) as Sell (5) –

Following Canaccord Genuity’s acquisition of Wilsons, Avita Medical continues to be covered by Shane Storey.

Sell. Target Price $1.25.

This report was published on October 3, 2025.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If AVH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 32.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.04.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 16.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.80.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRE    BRAZILIAN RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $4.37 

Petra Capital rates ((BRE)) as Buy (1) –

The Amargosa Project hosts 98mt of premium direct shipping ore (DSO) bauxite, grading 41.9% alumina and just 2.5% reactive silica, highlights Petra Capital.

It’s noted a further 470mt of bauxite Resources can be upgraded to leverage the significant existing infrastructure.

Development is planned in stages, starting with trucking to the Port of Enseada before expanding via rail to Porto Sul, reducing execution risk, suggests the broker.

Petra Capital lifts its bauxite valuation to $400m from $25m, supported by low capex of about -US$80m and strong standalone economics.

It’s thought a potential spin-out or joint venture in 2026 could crystallise value. The target price rises to $6.27 from $4.42. Buy retained.

This report was published on October 6, 2025.

Target price is $6.27 Current Price is $4.37 Difference: $1.9
If BRE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 30.56.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 59.05.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNB    CARNABY RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.48 

Moelis rates ((CNB)) as Buy (1) –

Following the end of the September quarter, Moelis has updated forecasts for gold/silver and copper companies to reflect actual prices, forex, and revised consensus assumptions.

The broker notes gold reached a record price, prompting a 15% upgrade in near term price forecasts and an 8% increase to long term forecast (US$2,812/oz)

Copper rose to US$4.75/lb amid the Grasberg disruption, though long-term assumptions remain steady. Silver prices are materially higher, benefiting producers with by-product exposure. Long-term silver price estimate is US$34.67/oz, up 21%.

Overall, gold producers saw strong valuation and earnings upgrades, while copper names gained modestly.

No changes to Carnaby Resources’ FY26 forecasts. FY27 EBITDA and net profit forecasts increase 5% and 7%, respectively).

Buy. Target unchanged at 87c.

This report was published on October 6, 2025.

Target price is $0.87 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.39
If CNB meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.87.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.08.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HVN    HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $7.68 

Jarden rates ((HVN)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden highlights the backdrop for Australian consumer electronics companies is the most favourable in years.

The covid replacement cycle, new home activity, and new product development are supporting upside to forecasts for stocks within the broker’s research coverage.

The greatest beneficiaries, according to the analysts, will be Harvey Norman, Breville Group ((BRG)), JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) and Officeworks, owned by Wesfarmers ((WES)).

The $6.70 target and Overweight rating are kept for Harvey Norman.

This report was published on September 29, 2025.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $7.68 Difference: minus $0.98 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.44, suggesting downside of -3.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 41.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.0, implying annual growth of -6.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 48.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.2, implying annual growth of 10.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SBM    ST. BARBARA LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.59 

Petra Capital rates ((SBM)) as Buy (1) –

St. Barbara has engaged Macquarie Capital, the corporate advisory arm of Macquarie Group ((MQG)), to evaluate strategic options for the Simberi operation, including a potential sale following unsolicited interest.

Petra Capital notes corporate appeal is underpinned by the Simberi Expansion Project, forecast to produce 221kozpa over FY28-35 at costs (AISC) of -US$1,242/oz.

Near term, resolution of the PNG tax dispute remains critical to confirm a final investment decision (FID) on the Sulphide Expansion, explains the analyst.

Petra Capital raises its target price to $1.18 from 68c following after FY26/27 production and cost adjustments, along with gold price forecast revisions. A Buy rating is retained.

This report was published on October 2, 2025.

Target price is $1.18 Current Price is $0.59 Difference: $0.59
If SBM meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.35.

Forecast for FY27:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.87.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WGX    WESTGOLD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $5.51 

Petra Capital rates ((WGX)) as Buy (1) –

Management at Westgold Resources has released a three-year outlook, outlining a clear, internally funded growth plan to lift production to 470koz in FY28 from 326koz in FY25, Petra Capital comments.

This is an executable strategy, in the broker’s view, supported by strong reserves, falling costs, and a solid balance sheet with only $50m in senior debt.

Guidance for production of 1.26moz over FY26-28 is underpinned by 56mt of ore reserves at 1.93g/t gold, with costs (AISC) expected to decline to -$2,499/oz in FY28 from -$2,666/oz in FY25.

The analyst believes upside exists from mine productivity improvements, mill expansions, and potential restarts of care-and maintenance operations.

Petra Capital lifts its target price to $5.98 from $4.86 and retains a Buy rating.

This report was published on October 2, 2025.

Target price is $5.98 Current Price is $5.51 Difference: $0.47
If WGX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 70.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.83.

Forecast for FY27:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 83.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.61.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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