Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes

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By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday January 30 to Friday February 3, 2017
Total Upgrades: 16
Total Downgrades: 15
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 43.80%; Hold 42.15%; Sell 14.05%

Australian investors had a few nasty profit downgrades to digest ahead of the first financial reports of the season, and James Hardie on Friday missed market expectations. Add unexpected tightening from Chinese authorities and more mayhem in Washington and it has become all but clear: this year's February reporting season is ramping up under a macro cloud.

FNArena registered 16 upgrades and 15 downgrades in ratings for individual ASX-listed stocks for the week ending Friday, 3rd February 2017. There are still more Buy ratings than Neutral/Hold recommendations for all stocks covered by the eight stockbrokers in our database. Traditionally this has earmarked not-so-good times for the local stock market. This time around the major indices are being carried by a rather narrow group of reflation winners.

Amongst stocks to receive upgrades, Navitas was the stand-out with three upgrades post the release of its financial results. Sydney Airport, Woolworths, Transurban and Scentre Group were all upgraded too. A sign the market overall is reconsidering its positioning post the Trump rally?

On the othet side of the ledger, 15 stocks each received one downgrade during the week and amongst them were Ansell, GBST, Orocobre, Iluka Resources and Sonic Healthcare.

In further evidence investors are warming to the prospect of a Woolworths comeback in the local supermarket wars, Woolworths sits on top of the week's table for positive revisions to price targets; up 9%, at a distance followed by IOOF Holdings and Iluka Resources.

The table for negative adjustments is led by GBST, followed by Navitas and Tabcorp.

Orocobre enjoyed the largest increase to forecast profits during the week, seeing consensus jump by 277%. The likes of AWE Ltd, Mt Gibson and Fortescue Metals too enjoyed increases in excess of 50%, but couldn't match Orocobre's pace.

The negative side looks equally impressive with ERM Power topping the table (-1375%), followed by Iluka Resources (-291%), Perseus Mining and Aconex (-40% plus each).

Too early to draw any conclusions just yet as the February reporting season slowly accelerates its pace.

Upgrade

ADELAIDE BRIGHTON LIMITED ((ABC)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/4/1

The company's share price has underperformed the market since it reached its all-time high back on August 1, 2016.

Ord Minnett believes the correction has been driven by a recognition of the difficulty in achieving realised cement price increases amid tepid underlying demand.

Both these dynamics are expected to improve in 2017. The broker upgrades to Hold from Lighten and raises the target to $4.90 from $4.60.

BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((BTT)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Credit Suisse suspects the departure of Gavin Rochussen will weigh on BT's capacity to maintain fund inflows at the same level of recent years. Target falls to $10.00 from $10.50 as a result. The broker remains cautious given fund flow and equity market volatility.

However BT's share price has fallen around -15% since December to a point at which Credit Suisse sees valuation support. BT consistently delivers superior funds flows to peers and is successfully executing on its global expansion, the broker notes. Upgrade to Neutral.

BRAMBLES LIMITED ((BXB)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/1/1

Brambles' recent first half trading update was a disappointment to Morgans, and the broker awaits new FY guidance at the company's result release. Earnings forecasts have been trimmed in the meantime.

But Morgans believes Brambles' longer term fundamentals remain solid, suggesting the recent pullback in price represents a buying opportunity. Target falls to $11.61 from $11.91. Upgrade to Add.

CHARTER HALL GROUP ((CHC)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 3/1/2

In a general update on the sector, Citi analysts observe investors are very much focused on global bond yields in order to recalibrate their strategies with regards to AREITs, but history shows, point out the analysts, cap rates are a more important factor to keep an eye on.

The cap rate is the ratio of Net Operating Income (NOI) to property asset value. Citi analysts suggest investors should watch for potential trend changes.

Charter Hall has been upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Price target gains 5c to $5.59. Estimates have been lifted ever so slightly.

NEWCREST MINING LIMITED ((NCM)) Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/2/3

December quarter gold production met Morgan Stanley's estimates.The broker considers the metrics are fair and the free cash flow supportive  and that the stock can be a defensive exposure in periods of volatility.

The broker believes the operational issues are dissipating, while margins and scale are robust. Morgan Stanley upgrades to Equal-weight from Underweight. Target is raised to $22.00 from $21.75. Industry view: Attractive.

See also NCM downgrade.

NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD ((NST)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Morgan Stanley is adding the stock to its preferred list of miners. After applying updated commodity prices and operational data, Morgan Stanley's FY17 estimate for earnings per share is down -27%. Nevertheless, FY18 and FY19 are changed  to be up 3% and down -8% respectively.

The broker notes the company is carrying a sizeable cash buffer and no bank debt. The FY17 dividend and yield are projected at 9.1c and 2.3%  respectively, based on 25% pay-out of free cash flow per share.

Morgan Stanley upgrades to Overweight from Equal-weight. Target is $5.30. Industry view: Attractive.

NAVITAS LIMITED ((NVT)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie and Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse and Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Macquarie expects sustained earnings growth, with the risks for contract losses and regulation reduced. The broker transfers coverage to a new analyst.

The stock is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral, reflecting these expectations. The broker considers contract losses, which have been a significant concern for prospective investors, are significantly reduced following a successful run of renewals. Target is $5.25.

Campus closures and currency headwinds meant Navitas' result was a messy one, but in line with Credit Suisse at the headline. The broker expects a return to growth in the second half that will finally put the Macquarie Uni contract loss in the past. 

Taking a conservative view, Credit Suisse has nevertheless lowered earnings forecasts and its target to $4.40 from $4.95. On recent share price weakness the broker upgrades to Neutral.

With the transition period from the loss of the Macquarie University contract  largely completed, and the recent addition of another US college locked in, UBS believes the market can now focus on potential earnings growth and other attractive attributes.

UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is reduced to $5.18 from $5.65. The company continues to expect FY17 EBITDA to be broadly in line with the prior year on a constant currency basis.

OIL SEARCH LIMITED ((OSH)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 4/3/1

Citi analysts are of the view that exploration success at Muruk & Antelope changes the outlook for PNG expansion which has now become more feasible.

As such these latest results support 3 Train expansion including potential for reserve increases.

Target price lifts to $7.03 from $6.48. Upgrade to Neutral from Sell.

QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED ((QUB)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/3/0

The Moorebank development project has reached financial closure which is significant event, Morgans suggests, triggering long term earnings growth potential for Qube. The broker believes revenue contracts have been awaiting final closure. 

Morgans has upgraded earnings forecasts, also adjusting for the Patrick and ATT acquisitions and capital raising. Target rises to $2.63 from $2.53. On a potential total shareholder reward of 15%, the broker upgrades to Add.

SCENTRE GROUP ((SCG)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 3/2/1

In a general update on the sector, Citi analysts observe investors are very much focused on global bond yields in order to recalibrate their strategies with regards to AREITs, but history shows, point out the analysts, cap rates are a more important factor to keep an eye on.

The cap rate is the ratio of Net Operating Income (NOI) to property asset value. Citi analysts suggest investors should watch for potential trend changes.

Scentre Group has been upgraded to Neutral from Sell. Price target moves to $4.35 from $4.28.

SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED ((SUN)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Deutsche Bank .B/H/S: 5/2/1

While the fundamentals are in place, valuations for the general insurance sector are approaching that of the broader market and Deutsche Bank takes up a neutral outlook on the sector.

The broker transfers coverage to another analyst and updates its thesis on the sector, highlighting a preference for Suncorp as it is trading at a 20% discount to Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)), despite operating in broadly similar product lines.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target is raised to $14.00 from $13.70.

SYDNEY AIRPORT HOLDINGS LIMITED ((SYD)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/1

Two factors underpin Morgans' decision to upgrade to Add from Hold. First comes the share price slump. Then follows the assumption Sydney Airport will not participate in the development of a second airport at Badgerys Creek, at least not under the conditions proposed.

Morgans acknowledges the long term uncertainty about precise impact from a second airport in Sydney, but for now, growth and yield seem too attractive to ignore. Target remains unchanged at $7.04.

TRANSURBAN GROUP ((TCL)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/2/0

The rise in government bond rates has weighed heavily on Transurban's share price. Morgans has cut its target on more conservative assumptions, but the new target of $11.23, down from $12.00, suggests 10% upside from the current price.

Transurban's underlying business remains robust, Morgans suggests, and forecast dividend growth remains strong. On a current total shareholder return forecast of 15%, the broker upgrades to Add.

WOOLWORTHS LIMITED ((WOW)) Upgrade to Buy from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 3/2/2

It appears UBS has upgraded to Buy from Sell, raising the price target to $27.30 from $19.10.

Downgrade

ANSELL LIMITED ((ANN)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/6/1

The broker observes the company is leveraged to a potential uplift in economic conditions but believes this is now largely reflected in the share price, especially  given the near doubling of latex costs.

Despite the benefit from the Nitritex acquisition, the broker is wary, noting Ansell could face challenges from US tax reform given its Asian-based manufacturing.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target is $25.

CARSALES.COM LIMITED ((CAR)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/3/0

The company has expanded its Latin American footprint  with the purchase of the Demotores online classifieds businesses in Argentina, Colombia and Chile. While the deal a small, Morgans notes it reveals a broader continental strategy is emerging.

Separately, the broker adjusts earnings forecasts to include price rises implemented this month and higher advertising costs as the company responds to the arrival of Cox Enterprises as a competitor.

The broker believes the home competitive environment is about to get a lot tougher and, while retaining a positive long-term view on the stock, winds back its rating to Hold from Add. Target is reduced to $11.07 from $12.03.

COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA ((CBA)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/6/2

Morgans believes the bank sector is now fully valued following the post US election rally, however an easing in capital requirement expectations supports the broker's view dividends will remain robust.

CBA is downgraded to Hold. Target rises to $79.00 from $75.80.

CSR LIMITED ((CSR)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/2/2

Transport restrictions in China have led to tight supply for aluminium in recent months. As this unwinds in the first quarter of 2017, Ord Minnett expects the underlying commodity price to retrace.

 In addition, a shift in the global supply/demand balance to an oversupplied position presents another risk. The broker downgrades to Lighten from Hold  and raises the target to $3.80 from $3.75.

CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((CWY)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Morgans adjusts first half forecasts to show 1% revenue growth and a -1% decline in costs, to deliver 7% growth in EBITDA.

The target lifts to $1.19 from $1.13, to reflect the changes, largely because of the broker's oil price outlook.

Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add as, at current prices, the potential shareholder return is around 5%.

GBST HOLDINGS LIMITED ((GBT)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 2/1/0

GBST has issued a profit warning ahead of its result, cutting FY17 earnings guidance to 33% below UBS' prior forecast. Project delays, deferred spending on major projects in the UK, and the weak GBP are all to blame.

While the risks are not new, the broker is concerned about the size of the downgrade. Improvement in FY18 is dependent on a recovery in services work and/or new contract wins. Elevated R&D costs will remain a significant drag over FY17, the broker notes.

UBS has cut earnings forecasts and lowered its target to $3.40 from $4.35. Downgrade to Neutral.

INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL ((IGO)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 0/5/1

December quarter production delivered in line with, or better than, guidance. Credit Suisse reduces FY17 revenue estimates by -3% and underlying EBITDA by -10%.

The broker assumes a modestly slower ramp up for Nova, given mine development rates in the December quarter fell short of internal targets.

With a potential relaxation of the ban on Indonesian nickel ore exports, the broker reduces the target to $4.00 from $4.50 and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform.

ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED ((ILU)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Ord Minnett observes feedstock price rises are taking longer than previously anticipated and the latest 2017 guidance highlights a slow start in Sierra Leone.

The stock screens relatively expensive compared with its peers at a 2017 enterprise value/operating earnings multiple. Ord Minnett cuts its rating to Lighten from Hold. Target is raised to $6.60 from $6.50.

INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED ((IPL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 3/4/1

The stock is up 20% against the Australian market since it reported FY16 results.

UBS believes this reflects stronger nitrogen fertiliser prices, positive sentiment around the US election and the potential impact on infrastructure-led explosives demand and the ongoing ramp up of the Louisiana project.

While the broker believes there is further upside to fertiliser prices, a large degree of success is now incorporated in the valuation and the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target rises to $3.80 from $3.40.

NEWCREST MINING LIMITED ((NCM)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/3

Newcrest's Dec Q production and sales were largely in line with Macquarie's forecasts. FY17 production guidance has been maintained for all projects. Modest earnings upgrades follow on a solid performance. Target rises to $23 from $20.

But the stock has had a solid run since December, outperforming the market and both local and global gold mining peers, the broker notes. With little upside apparent from the target, Macquarie downgrades to Neutral.

See also NCM upgrade.

NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NHF)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/4/1

As the share price has rallied, Ord Minnett downgrades to Accumulate from Buy. The main issues the broker envisages in the upcoming first half results  are Australian resident health insurance margins, claims inflation and growth trends.

The margins were upgraded at the AGM largely on the back of more favourable claims environment but the company also increased its drawing rate inflation range.  The broker awaits further clarity from the commentary on claims inflation trends. Target rises to $5.00 from $4.90.

OROCOBRE LIMITED ((ORE)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Pricing in the December quarter was lower than Macquarie expected, and cash flow was negative. Production was at the bottom of the guidance range.

While the miss on pricing and sales was disappointing, it is the broader impact on funding and cash flow that drives the broker to downgrade to Neutral from Outperform. The target is reduced to $4.35 from $4.60.

OZ MINERALS LIMITED ((OZL)) Downgrade to Reduce from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/3/3

Morgans has updated its OZ valuation, applying increased copper price assumptions, pricing operational improvements at Prominent Hill and reducing the risk-weighting for Carrapateena. The result is a target price increase to $7.30 from $5.95.

This remain well shy of the current trading price. The broker believes the market has re-rated OZ by some 50% on global growth exuberance and a lack of other large, high margin copper exposures on the market. Downgrade to Reduce. The broker prefers Sandfire Resources ((SFR)) in the copper space.

PERSEUS MINING LIMITED ((PRU)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/2/1

As the disappointing news flow continues at Perseus, with the second production downgrade in two weeks, Citi analysts have downgraded to Sell/High Risk from Neutral/High Risk.

The analysts estimate another $30m external funding will be needed to complete the new mine at Sissingue for first production in Q1 2018. Target falls to 37c from 42c.

SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((SHL)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/4/1

Ord Minnett finds the announcement of yet another acquisition in Germany "encouraging", but otherwise is worried about weak demand in Australia and the USA. On this basis, the recommendation is being pulled back to Hold from Accumulate.

In addition, the analysts point at the lack of progress on the hoped-for reform of collections centres in Australia and pending funding cuts in the USA. Incorporating new FX forecasts has triggered mild reductions to estimates. Price target falls to $23 from $24.30. The analysts see little room for upside surprise.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

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