The Week Ahead: Reporting Season Accelerates To The End

This story features CHALLENGER LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CGF

By Andrew Nelson

Reporting season kicks in to its final phase just as the Olympic flame is extinguished in  Beijing. The last week is the busiest, bringing  reports from over 100 companies. So with the last group of our corporate athletes now nearing ASX stadium, who’s up for gold, silver bronze and disqualification?

The landscape is very different than it was just three short weeks ago when this current reporting season kicked off with a trickle of releases that tested what were going to be unpredictable waters, blown this way and that, by the full force of the credit market storm. But what started off with doom and gloom has ended with a glimmer of optimism, as more often than not, companies failed to disappoint as much as we feared they would.

The global investment community has started to reposition itself, and the benchmark shifted from what happened over the year past, to the broader measure of performances judged against the backdrop of slowing economic growth. The flame has been passed from oil and commodities and on to banks, consumer discretionary and other industrials. Sectors that, just a few short weeks ago, we were fearing the worst for.

Wall street ended its week on an upward trajectory, and while still fragile, the optimism engendered by a stabilising US economy will go a long way to getting us off to a positive start  this week. Oil has retreated a little more, Ben Bernanke talked down inflation fears and talked up the USD, which saw JP Morgan offer a ray of hope to distressed investors. And the market took the message.

It wasn’t all good news from global markets on Friday, with oil and gold dropping and most base metals following suit. Second quarter GDP figures from the UK showed nil growth and set the tone for a more dour time in Europe in the weeks and months ahead. Investors will be closely watching German data releases scheduled for this week, including inflation figures, business sentiment and unemployment figures. If the recent trend is anything to go by the data will confirm that Europe is facing much tougher times ahead.

The SPI futures are indicating a positive opening for the Australian share market on Monday morning, with  investors looking more likely to at least start the week on the same positive note that Wall Street finished on. 

The Australian economic calendar may be pretty sparse this week, but the so far surprisingly upbeat reporting season marches on. It’s the corporate calm before the storm, with the week after likely to see the Reserve Bank take the knife to interest rates at its meeting on September 2.

Monday  Challenger Group ((CGF)) gives us a little more insight into the hands on end of the always exciting financial sector, while global construction giant Transfield Services ((TSE)) also hits the press, with its performance and outlook likely to lend a little insight into how much macroeconomic headwind there has really been and much long and harder that wind might blow.

Tuesday gives us the big barometer for the discretionary sector, with Woolworths ((WOW)) putting out full year figures. Big brewer Foster’s ((FGL)), Suncorp-Metway ((SUN)) and Primary Healthcare ((PRY)) are also on the cards, but all ears will be on the closing bell, when Rio Tinto ((RIO)) tells us how it’s been going for the last six months.

Wednesday is a busy day, with Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) putting the oil outlook under the microscope. Transurban ((TCL)) is also on the menu, with its 40% share price advance in the past two months likely to come under review and few of the Macquarie branded trusts are likely to spark a bit of conversation about credit/debt.

How’s AMP ((AMP)) been going, we’ll find out on Thursday. Discretionary spending also gets a shake, with gamers Tattersall’s ((TTS)) and Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)) plus Origin Energy ((ORG)) gets a chance to tell us what it’s really worth, reporting full year figures likely to support its wrangle with BG.

Then we’re full speed into Friday and more discussions about how much money has been and will be in people’s pockets. Shopping centre operator Westfield ((WDC)) will give us the global view, while Harvey Norman ((HVN)) tells us how much Aussies are really spending.

With the reserve bank clearly indicating a September rate cut (many are saying) and the meeting coming the week after next, the trickle of data out next week is going to garner more attention than it’s probably worth.

Construction work done figures are released on Wednesday with capital expenditure data slated for Thursday. CommSec are expecting a healthy read on the construction work figures, while business spending probably did a little bit the economy. Neither are likely to sway the RBA one way or the other.

Friday will bring us private sector credit figures for July – CommSec thinks annual growth will show at a 21-year low.

The US is a bit busier, data on existing home sales on Monday, consumer confidence Fed minutes on Tuesday, durable goods orders on Wednesday, revised GDP data  on Thursday and personal spending figures on Friday.

Europe get’s off to a slow start, with the UK closed for a bank holiday on Monday. In fact, it doesn’t really hot up until Thursday, when we get a good look at whether Europe really is heading into a recession. The day brings the business climate indicator for August and also retail PMI and consumer confidence figures for August. Friday sees July employment data and August CPI estimates.

 And all of this is just a short snapshot of the week to come. Plenty more can be found on the FNArena Calendar (see website). 

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