Top Ten Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

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            [28] => ((SMX))
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            [29] => TPI
            [30] => API
            [31] => ROC
            [32] => OGC
            [33] => BDR
            [34] => WHC
            [35] => AQP
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This story features GPT GROUP, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GPT
The company is included in ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

By Chris Shaw

Upgrades and downgrades were well balanced in the past week, the eight brokers in the FNArena database pushing through 20 upgrades while cutting ratings on 19 occasions. Total Buy ratings according to the database now stand at 42.50%.

Ardent Leisure ((AAD)) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by RBS Australia to reflect the expectation an improvement in the earnings trend evident in the group's September quarter update will continue in coming periods. RBS also sees the yield as attractive.

Boral ((BLD)) was also upgraded by RBS to Hold from Sell, this following an update from the company that indicated operating conditions remain tough. This is now factored into earnings and the share price, so RBS lifts its rating on valuation grounds.

At the same time Credit Suisse has gone the other way and downgraded Boral to Hold from Buy, this as a needed recovery in the domestic housing market now appears a longer-dated process than the broker had previously expected.

BT Investment Management ((BTT)) delivered a solid full year profit result and along with changes to earnings estimates UBS has adopted a more positive view on the company. This is reflected in an increase in both price target and rating to Buy from Neutral.

A review of Australian REIT stocks saw Deutsche Bank upgrade CFS Retail ((CFX)) to Buy from Hold on valuation grounds, while Credit Suisse also upgraded to Hold from Sell on the same basis following recent share price underperformance. JP Morgan in contrast downgraded to Sell from Hold on the stock, this on the back of news the company has lowered yield expectations for its Emporium assets.

Deutsche's review of the A-REIT sector generated a number of other ratings and price target changes, with the broker upgrading Commonwealth Property Office ((CPA)), GPT ((GPT)) and Investa Office ((IOF)) to Hold from Sell and Stockland ((SGP)) and Westfield Retail ((WRT)) to Buy from Hold.

There were also downgrades stemming from Deutsche's review, with Charter Hall ((CHC)) and Cromwell Property ((CMW)) both being downgraded to Sell from Hold and Goodman Group ((GMG)) to Hold from Buy.

A trading update from GUD Holdings ((GUD)) saw earnings estimates and price targets cut across the market but with the company announcing further capital management initiatives and scope for further such moves Citi has upgraded to a Hold rating from Sell previously.

JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) also updated on trading and with the indications in line with expectations UBS has maintained its above consensus earnings estimates. Signs of an improving trading environment have seen the broker upgrade to a Buy rating from Neutral.

Macquarie Bank's ((MQG)) interim result was soft given weaker than expected revenues but in the view of JP Morgan the result showed there is now less downside risk to earnings going forward. On the back of an increase in price target the broker upgrades to a Neutral rating from Underperform previously.

JP Morgan also upgraded Matrix Composite ((MCE)) to Buy from Hold following an earnings update, as while forecasts and price target were both lowered the broker takes the view most of the bad news on the stock is now out.

Medusa Mining's ((MML)) quarterly production report was weak but Deutsche notes this had been expected and so had little impact on the group's earnings outlook. The move to a Buy rating from Hold reflects upside relative to the broker's price target.

Regis Resources ((RRL)) was also upgraded by Deutsche to Buy from Hold following a solid quarterly production report, the broker expecting growth will continue as the Garden Well project is expanded. Deutsche is attracted to a solid growth outlook and low risk expansion at current operations.

An asset sale program by Peet ((PPC)) is delivering some progress and BA Merrill Lynch expects an improvement in cash flows in coming years. With scope for commentary from the upcoming AGM to drive a re-rating the broker has moved to a Buy rating from Hold previously.

For Sedgman ((SDM)) there is value at current levels in the view of BA-ML, this despite cuts to earnings estimates and price target following an update from the company. BA-ML's rating has been lifted to Buy from Sell.

Arrium ((ARI)) has rejected an increased approach from the Steelmakers consortium and with downside share price risk increasing if there is no further corporate interest, Deutsche Bank has downgraded to a Sell rating from Hold.

With the Kenyan government passing a regulation indicating every mineral right should have significant local equity participation Credit Suisse has factored in a more conservative view for Base Resources ((BSE)) and its Kwale lease. This sees the broker downgrade to a Hold rating from Buy.

Beach Energy ((BPT)) delivered a quarterly report largely in line with expectations but Citi still downgraded to a Sell rating from Hold. The change is a valuation call as the current share price is above the broker's revised target.

A review of the building materials sector by UBS was enough for the broker to downgrade Fletcher Building ((FBU)) to Hold from Buy. This is a reflection of the broker's view the sector and the stock remain expensive given the ongoing risk to FY14 earnings expectations.

Flight Centre's ((FLT)) AGM commentary met Deutsche's expectations and so the broker makes no major changes to its model. But with the stock having enjoyed a solid run of late, rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy.

Changes to commodity price forecasts have been the major driver of UBS adjusting its model for Ivanhoe Australia ((IVA)). While price target has also increased the broker has moved to a Sell rating from Hold on valuation grounds.

Leighton Holdings ((LEI)) remains on track to meet expectations for the full year despite a weaker update for the nine months to the end of September, but brokers suggest a big final quarter will be needed. With downside earnings risk increasing both RBS and Deutsche have downgraded ratings, the former to Sell from Hold and the latter to Hold from Buy.

ResMed ((RMD)) also received two downgrades following a strong quarterly profit result, both UBS and Credit Suisse moving to Hold ratings on the stock. The changes are largely valuation calls, as Credit Suisse notes the stock has performed well relative to both peers and the market of late.

For Sandfire Resources ((SFR)) a solid September quarter result was not enough to prevent UBS moving to a Neutral rating from Buy, as while the DeGrussa mine continues to perform well the stock appears fair value.

SMS Management ((SMX)) updated the market on still tough trading conditions and given the update was weaker than expected earnings forecasts and price targets have been lowered. For Credit Suisse the issue now is a lack of earnings visibility, which is enough for the broker to downgrade to Hold from Buy.

Transpacific Industries ((TPI)) has indicated its start to FY13 has been weaker than some in the market expected, Macquarie one to adjust earnings estimates and price target as a result of the update. Given near-term earnings pressure the broker has downgraded to Hold from Buy.

With respect to changes to target prices, the largest increases for the week were seen in Australian Pharmaceutical Industries ((API)) and ResMed, while no cuts in target prices of more than 10% were generated.

On an earnings basis the largest increases were in Roc Oil ((ROC)) and OceanaGold ((OGC)), while forecasts fell by more than 20% for Brandrill ((BDR)), Resmed, Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)) and Aquarius Platinum ((AQP)).

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup Suisse,Deutsche<*br*>Bank,JP<*br*>Morgan,Macquarie,RBS<*br*>Australia,UBS&b0=110,88,90,89,75,120,143,113&h0=73,118,100,133,100,110,150,125&s0=57,29,42,12,43,38,13,20″ style=”border-bottom: #000000 1px solid; border-left: #000000 1px solid; border-top: #000000 1px solid; border-right: #000000 1px solid” />

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