Weekly Reports | Nov 09 2020
This story features BRAMBLES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BXB
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday November 2 to Friday November 6, 2020
Total Upgrades: 10
Total Downgrades: 8
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 51.75%; Hold 38.45%; Sell 9.80%
For the week ended Friday November 6, there were ten upgrades and eight downgrades to broker ratings for ASX-listed stocks on the FNArena database. All eight downgrades went to a Hold rating from a Buy. Nine of the ten upgrades went to a Buy rating, while ResMed received ratings upgrades from three different stockbrokers.
The company was boosted by quarterly results that showed a rebound in sleep-related sales and management’s confidence in future quarterly improvements for device sales. Consequently, the company was the table-header for the percentage increase in target prices for the week.
Next on the table was Abacus Property Group after acquiring the remaining 75% interest in Storage King for $50m. This was considered by brokers to provide the group with avenues for further growth. As mentioned last week, Hub24’s target price is being ratcheted up by brokers due to making several acquisitions, divesting another asset and raising $60m in equity. It’s generally agreed by brokers the company will benefit from scale and capability as a result of the acquisitions. Ansell was fourth in terms of a percentage increase in target price for the week after management upgraded FY21 forecast earnings growth. There has been better than expected volume and sales across all five of the business units during the first four months of the financial year.
OceanaGold was the sole company in the FNArena database experiencing a material decline in target price for the week. September quarter production figures were well below broker estimates, while costs were greater than expected. This was attributed to exceptional rainfall events and pandemic effects on personnel levels at the Haile project in South Carolina. As a result, Macquarie downgraded the company’s rating to Neutral from Outperform.
Consequently, OceanaGold was also second on the list of percentage forecast earnings downgrades by brokers for the week. At the top of the list was Western Areas after an update by five brokers in the wake of lower production guidance and increased cost estimates by management. After a significant share price fall, Citi saw opportunity to buy the pure-play nickel stock and upgraded the rating. Macquarie took the opposite strategy and downgraded the rating to Neutral from Outperform over some longer-term debt concerns. Those concerns would amount to nought should current spot nickel prices be maintained.
The management of Senex Energy updated earnings guidance in the wake of the company’s divestment of its Cooper Basin assets. The loss in earnings appeared to outweigh the cash injection in the opinion of brokers, but on the whole they were comfortable with the company’s increased coal-seam-gas focus.
Atlas Arteria broker earnings forecasts continue to suffer from concerning trends regarding the Atlantia’s Abertis (French) toll road network and the impact on both earnings and dividends in 2021. Fortunately, the company has plenty of surplus cash and Macquarie sees no financial threat.
The Westpac full year result was a mixed bag. On one hand higher costs resulted in a "miss" on core profits, while on the other a much higher dividend plus asset quality surprised on the upside. The positives triumphed as the bank had the largest percentage increase in earnings forecasts by brokers in the FNArena database for the week.
In a good week for banks, both the ANZ Bank and the National Australia Bank also had a material lift in broker earnings forecasts. As mentioned last week the ANZ Bank benefited from positive signs on both costs and asset quality, with impairment charges lower than generally expected. The majority of the seven brokers on the FNArena database agreed the bank’s FY20 result either exceeded or met expectations.
Multiple positives propelled earnings forecasts higher for National Australia bank. Brokers generally agreed with management’s margin management and provision build-up, while in the case of some brokers, the dividend exceeded expectations.
In amongst the three banks mentioned above, Cooper Energy was rewarded with earnings forecast upgrades after news that production at the Sole gas project would soon transition to term contracts. This will allow the company to start selling gas into the GSAs (gas sales agreements) it has with its Sole customers.
Upgrade
BRAMBLES LIMITED ((BXB)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/1/0
The first quarter trading update for Brambles was better than Morgans expected.
CHEP Americas and CHEP Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) performed above expectations, while CHEP Asia-Pacific was in line with the broker’s forecast.
Sales growth was driven by strong demand for pallets in grocery supply chains (as inventory levels are increased in preparation for the holiday season, and ahead of any further lockdown measures).
Following recent share price weakness, the rating is upgraded to Add from Hold and the target is increased to $12.16 from $12.05.
INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED ((ING)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/3/0
A recovery in Inghams Group's first quarter core poultry sales volumes was stronger than Morgans expected and has supported a reduction in the group’s inventory build.
While commentary on profitability was limited, the broker expects the first quarter earnings (EBITDA) figure has improved sequentially on the prior quarter. Feed costs are still expected to reduce from the fourth quarter 2021.
Despite a slight accounting induced dividend policy change, the analyst doesn't expect the quantum of the FY21 dividend will change.
Morgans lifts earnings forecasts in FY22 and FY23 by 4.2% and 3.6%, respectively. The broker expects earnings to normalise and for it to benefit from a full year of lower grain prices.
The target price is increased to $3.76 from $3.57 and the rating is increased to Add from Hold.
POINTSBET HOLDINGS LTD ((PBH)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/0
PointsBet Holdings’ first-quarter update shows the business to be in a ramp-up phase. Customer acquisition was above Ord minnett's expectations while the turnover numbers for both the US and Australia were ahead of forecasts.
The broker notes PointsBet has been live in Illinois for 3 weeks in the September quarter but could be a source of material near term turnover. A number of states have seen some progress regarding potential legalisation.
Ord Minnett upgrades to Buy from Hold. Target declines to $12.80 from $13.60.
RESMED INC ((RMD)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS and Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse and Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/3/0
ResMed's first-quarter result was ahead of UBS's forecast with group revenue beating the broker's estimate by 6%. The broker is happy with the faster than expected recovery in sleep-related sales.
Ventilation sales related to covid-19 were less than June quarter levels but still managed to be ahead of the broker by about US$13m.
UBS expects strong revenue performance over the longer term and also believes ResMed will reach a net cash position in FY22.
Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with the target price rising to US$210 from US$200.
Credit Suisse believes ResMed is uniquely placed to benefit from a shift to home health care post the pandemic. Double-digit earnings growth is forecast over the medium term and the rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.
Despite rising coronavirus cases in the northern hemisphere and the re-implementation of lockdowns, management remains confident of a sequential quarterly improvement in device sales.
The risk from competitive bidding in the US is removed and the current reimbursement rates are expected to remain for at least three years. Target is raised to $31 from $28.
ResMed's quarterly earnings result indicated a rebound in the company's base business and OSA activity greater than Macquarie had expected. Ongoing improvement is expected ahead in both device volumes and opportunities regarding re-supply.
ResMed does not see any change in US reimbursement rates in the foreseeable future, removing what the broker had highlighted as a risk. Earnings forecasts thus upgraded and target rises to $27.25 form $20.00. Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform.
SG FLEET GROUP LIMITED ((SGF)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/0/0
Morgan Stanley suspects guidance is conservative, at net profit of $22-24m. This signals earnings are almost back to pre-pandemic levels and does not include the prospect of Victoria coming out of lockdown, which should provide upside potential.
The broker suggests earnings should also be leveraged to a turnaround within leasing.
As a result, uncertainty is considered more than priced into the stock and Morgan Stanley upgrades to Overweight from Equal-weight. Target is raised to $2.30 from $2.00. Industry view: In Line.
SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LTD ((SIQ)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/0
The third quarter update indicates to Morgans broader car purchasing demand is picking up, while cash generation and the balance sheet remain solid.
The broker points out trading showed improvement in the recovery run rate, in particular novated lease volume.
On a short-term view Morgans increases the rating to Add from Hold and expects recovery trends to continue to show improvement.
The target price is decreased to $6.55 from $6.75.
TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED ((TWE)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/5/0
UBS believes the key driver for Treasury Wine Estates is China, with risks including tariffs from an anti-dumping investigation and potential retrospective tariff on imports. Additionally, there is speculation on a wine import suspension by 5 November.
Separately, the broker considers the first quarter update was incrementally positive, driving 2-3% EPS upgrades.
As the share price is factoring in an around -$4.40 valuation impact from tariffs, the analyst thinks the risk/reward is now favourable and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.
The target price is decreased to $8.80 from $12.50.
See also TWE downgrade.
WESTERN AREAS NL ((WSA)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 4/2/0
Western Areas' September quarter fell short of expectations led by seismic activity at the Flying Fox mine. In a first for Western Areas, the company has reduced its nickel guidance by -10% and expects costs to be higher.
Citi views the recent sell-off as overdone and sees this as an opportunity to buy a pure-play nickel stock. The broker thinks the higher nickel ore prices and producer cost inflation tilt short-term price risks to the upside.
Citi upgrades its rating to Buy from Neutral with the target price reduced to $2.35 from $2.65.
See also WSA downgrade.
Downgrade
GWA GROUP LIMITED ((GWA)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 0/4/0
Credit Suisse observes, since the last update in August, housing turnover and price indicators for GWA Group's core alterations & additions market have improved. Hence, the latest commentary on FY21 is disappointing.
Year-to-date sales are down -5% and it appears, while consumer discretionary peers have posted strong growth, GWA Group has not participated in the recovery so far.
Underperformance is attributed to stretched-out cycles in the commercial end market as the company's products are the last to be installed. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target is steady at $2.85.
HUB24 LIMITED ((HUB)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/0
The company has purchased Ord Minnett's portfolio administration and reporting services along with Xplore Wealth ((XPL)) and simultaneously divested Paragem to Easton Investments for scrip.
Beyond the accretive set of transactions, the broker assesses the deals provide HUB24 with advanced functionality and capability.
Nevertheless, despite the strategic and financial merit, the stock has rallied 260% from the March lows and this provides limited valuation support. Hence, Ord Minnett downgrades to Hold from Buy. Target is raised to $23.29 from $19.49.
ICAR ASIA LIMITED ((ICQ)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/1/0
iCar Asia has received an indicative 50 cent bid from US listed, Chinese based Autohome Inc.
Morgans assesses the offer looks attractive to shareholders, given the headline metrics, premium to current trading and the broker’s valuation.
The bid comes amidst a raft of deals in the classifieds space as larger players look to either rationalise or beef up their portfolios, informs the analyst.
Separately, the quarterly result shows traction out of second quarter lows, and was in-line with the broker’s expectations.
Morgans sets the target price at an equal weighting between the indicative bid price ($0.50) and the broker’s valuation of $0.39. With the share price closing very close to the target price, the analyst sees the risk/reward trade-off, should a binding offer not eventuate, as evenly balanced.
The rating is downgraded to Hold from Add and the target price is increased to $0.445 from $0.39.
ISENTIA GROUP LIMITED ((ISD)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/1/0
Isentia Group announced a -$7.0m to -$8.5m profit (PBT) impact from a recent cybersecurity incident. The estimated impact relates to remediation costs and foregone revenue for services effected by the outage.
The incident is now largely under control with the company progressively restoring services.
Morgans believes how professionally the company handles the incident and interacts with its client base will determine whether significant reputational damage is caused. If handled well the company could emerge stronger, as a result of reinforced systems and processes.
The broker expects management to handle the situation well. Investors are considered likely to wait and see how the business and the competitive environment evolve before buying stock.
The rating is downgraded to Hold from Add and the target price decreased to $0.15 from $0.36.
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED ((NAB)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/1
The FY20 cash earnings (from continuing operations) for National Australia Bank were two percent less than Morgans expected, largely due to a higher-than-expected credit impairment charge.
The charge was higher because the bank significantly bolstered its collective provision (CP) to credit risk weighted assets (CRWA) coverage.
The broker highlights second half revenue was supported by a strong performance in the markets and treasury divisions.
A final dividend of 30cps fully franked was declared, which is better than the broker's expectation of 28cps.
Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add partly due to a slight reduction in target price to $20 from $20.50, but largely due to share price strength over the last month.
OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION ((OGC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/0
OceanaGold 's September quarter featured production -33% below the broker's forecast and costs 32% above, attributed to exceptional rainfall events and virus impact on personnel levels at Haile.
With the virus situation in the US not improving, particularly in South Carolina (Haile), Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform.
Production is expected to rebound in this quarter but performance will likely remain subdued, the broker suggests, until Waihi recommences mid next year. Target falls to $2.00 from $2.80.
TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED ((TWE)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/5/0
Credit Suisse has decided to downgrade to Neutral from Outperform, reflecting the political risk and uncertainty associated with the China export market.
The broker's channel checks indicate distributors may have become hesitant to order. Target is reduced to $8.50 from $12.30 to account for the temporary and short-term risk.
See also TWE upgrade.
WESTERN AREAS NL ((WSA)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/2/0
Western Areas' September quarter production was materially weaker than expected and has led to a -10% reduction in FY21 guidance, with Flying Fox and Spotted Quoll swinging to lower grades. Macquarie has cut earnings forecasts as a result.
The broker notes this would lead to a -$100m funding gap by mid-2022, which could be covered by existing debt facilities, but could also be a non-issue if nickel prices continue to trade at current spot compared to Macquarie's forecast.
For now, downgrade to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to $2.00 from $2.80.
See also WSA upgrade.
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BXB - BRAMBLES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GWA - GWA GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HUB - HUB24 LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ING - INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NAB - NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PBH - POINTSBET HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RMD - RESMED INC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SGF - SG FLEET GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SIQ - SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TWE - TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED