Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 17, 2021

This story features ADAIRS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ADH

FNArena will be updating Special Editions of this Report in September dedicated to the August Reporting Season.

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ADH (2)   ADI   APZ   BSA   CDA (2)   CDP   CMM   COH   CQR   CWY   HT1   MMM   MXI   NCM   NWH (2)   OZL   PWH   S32   SGP   TRS   TWE   VTI  

ADH    ADAIRS LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $3.91

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ADH)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity believes Adair's inline FY21 result benefited from a trading environment that favoured strong brands in the homewares category, while the online channel offset a year in which a third of all trading days were impacted by covid.

While Canaccord expects the eventual reopening on the East Coast to mirror underlying strength of trade in states like WA – where restrictions have been minor – the broker expects underlying pressure in gross margins to create lumpiness in inventory availability.

Compositionally, the broker expects slightly higher sales to be offset by a corresponding cut to gross margin.

Canaccord Genuity retains its Buy recommendation with the target price lowering to $4.60 from $4.70.

The report was published on August 20, 2021.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.91 Difference: $0.69
If ADH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.57, suggesting upside of 15.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.6, implying annual growth of -10.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.5, implying annual growth of 14.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((ADH)) as Buy (1) –

Adairs' FY21 result was largely in line with Jarden's expectations, with the company reporting a 29% year-on-year revenue increase to $499.8m and an 89% year-on-year underlying earnings increase to $119.6m 

Sales have decreased -11.7% in the first seven weeks of FY22, with lockdown impacting 40% of store trading days, but Jarden notes like-for-like sales adjusted for store closures were up 5.2%, suggesting underlying business continues to trade well.

The broker updates underlying earnings forecasts by -13% and -6% for FY22 and FY23 respectively, on labour costs and increased investment post-lockdown.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $5.13 from $5.14. 

This report was published on August 21, 2021.

Target price is $5.13 Current Price is $3.91 Difference: $1.22
If ADH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.57, suggesting upside of 15.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 36.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.6, implying annual growth of -10.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 41.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.5, implying annual growth of 14.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ADI    APN INDUSTRIA REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.67

Moelis rates ((ADI)) as Hold (3) –

APN Industria REIT delivered FY21 funds from operations (FFO) of 19.9cps, up 3.1% year-on-year, with like-for-like net property income growth of 2.1%.

Due to favourable industrial leasing spreads and a lower than expected cost of debt, FY22 FFO guidance of 19.3cps came in ahead of Moelis' expectations.

Net tangible assets (NTA) increased 11% during the half, from $2.88 to $3.20, while gearing increased slightly to 31.6% following three recent acquisitions.

Hold rating is unchanged and the target increases to $3.41 from $3.12.

This report was issued on August 23, 2021.

Target price is $3.41 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If ADI meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.30 cents and EPS of 19.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.02.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.60 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.48.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APZ    ASPEN GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $1.51

Moelis rates ((APZ)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Moelis observes FY21 was a transformational year for Aspen Group, with the execution of 5 acquisitions across affordable residential/retirement properties, taking gross assets to over $300m.

The broker has increased FY22 earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 3% to 8.3c to reflect improved performance across park communities assets and an assumed increase in development activity.

To reflect latent valuation upside across multiple properties, the broker also expects net asset value (NAV) to reach $1.54 by June 2023.

Moelis moves to a Hold from a Buy and increases the target price to $1.54.

The report was published on August 20, 2021.

Target price is $1.54 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.03
If APZ meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 8.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.19.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.40 cents and EPS of 9.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.41.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSA    BSA LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $0.30

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BSA)) as Buy (1) –

While BSA Ltd's FY21 underlying earnings of $23.1m was a minor beat to Canaccord Genuity's estimates, it included JobKeeper subsidies of $11.3m, which were applicable only to first-half FY21.

While operations continue to face challenges from ongoing covid lockdowns, BSA in first half FY21 guided to FY24 revenues of $750m and earnings margins of at least 5%. The broker notes that target has been upgraded for FY24 earnings margins of 6 – 8% on revenues of $750m.

Meantime, due to near-term uncertainly from ongoing covid-related disruptions, the broker has reduced FY22 and FY23 earnings down -19% and -5.5% respectively.

The broker retains a Buy recommendation and the target price is lowered to $0.42 from $0.45.

The report was published on August 23, 2021.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.12
If BSA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.00.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CDA    CODAN LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $13.50

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CDA)) as Buy (1) –

Driven by a strong performance from the metal detection division, Codan's FY21 result was a 2% beat to  Canaccord Genuity's net profit estimates, and underlying earnings per share (EPS) grew 40% on the previous period.

Management noted a strong start to the year in metal detection and reiterated guidance for the recently announced acquisitions in communications.

Canaccord views investor uncertainty about the outlook, reflected in the weaker share price, as a buying opportunity.

The broker has lifted FY22 EPS estimates by 3%, which implies 26% growth, and notes half of this is already "locked-in" from the contribution from DTC and Zetron acquisitions.

The balance is expected to be driven by only a 12% growth in metal detection revenue.

The Buy rating is unchanged and the target price increases to $18.40 from $17.10.

This report was published on August 20, 2021.

Target price is $18.40 Current Price is $13.50 Difference: $4.9
If CDA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.85.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((CDA)) as Hold (3) –

The highlight of Codan's FY21 results is the record $97.3m profit after tax, which Moelis notes was driven by the Metal Detection segment. The broker also highlighted after funding $174m for acquisitions, the company has zero net debt at the end of FY21.

Moelis notes the company has already made a strong start to FY22, and both Communications segment acquisitions are on track to achieve FY22 earnings guidance of $14m and $8m respectively.

The broker is guiding to 17% profit after tax growth for FY22, with growth comprised of an $11m profit benefit from Communications acquisitions, and $6m from incremental earnings of the new GPX6000 detector.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price increases to $17.12.

This report was published on August 20, 2021.

Target price is $17.12 Current Price is $13.50 Difference: $3.62
If CDA meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 34.60 cents and EPS of 62.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.46.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 38.80 cents and EPS of 70.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.15.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CDP    CARINDALE PROPERTY TRUST

REITs – Overnight Price: $4.44

Moelis rates ((CDP)) as Buy (1) –

Carindale Property Trust's reported FY21 funds from operations of $23.6m are around 10% ahead of Moelis' forecast. The broker notes the result is reflective of the strong rebound in activity, with the company benefiting from being subject to only 8 days of lockdowns in the last six months.

Annual retail sales of $896m were in line with FY18 and FY19 levels, and occupancy was reported at 98%. Carindale is  now guiding to a FY22 dividend per unit of 25 cents, in line with Moelis' expectations. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $5.58 from $5.23.

This report was published on August 20, 2021.

Target price is $5.58 Current Price is $4.44 Difference: $1.14
If CDP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 34.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.76.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.33.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMM    CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.29

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CMM)) as Buy (1) –

Capricorn Metals recently announced plans to buy 100% of the Mt Gibson Gold Project (MGGP) in WA – which hosts an inferred resource of 2.1Moz at 0.8g/t – for $39.6m.

Canaccord Genuity believes the deal is compellingly accretive, while the style of the asset complements management's reputation for successfully executing low-grade open-pit operations.

Canaccord assumes a standalone development scenario for the MGGP with initial capex of $180m for a 4Mtpa plant producing an average of 104kozpa at an all-in cost of $1,251/oz over an initial mine life of 8.5 years.

The broker maintains a Buy rating and the target price increases to $2.70 from $2.15.

This report was published on August 23, 2021.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: $0.41
If CMM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.41.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.90.

Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COH    COCHLEAR LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $238.12

Jarden rates ((COH)) as Buy (2) –

Cochlear's FY21 result was high-quality according to Jarden, who notes the company delivered top-line revenue 1.7% ahead of the broker's forecast. The result was underpinned by a stronger-than-expected recovery in cochlear implant units.

Jarden notes profit after tax of $236.7m was 4.6% below forecast, with the bottom line miss attributed to ongoing reinvestment in the business and increased insurance costs. 

However, looking forward the company has provided a weak FY22 guidance with profit after tax of $265-285m, and Jarden has downgraded its forecast by -6.1% to sit at the top end of this range.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $267.10 from $265.80.

This report was published on August 20, 2021.

Target price is $267.10 Current Price is $238.12 Difference: $28.98
If COH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $222.64, suggesting downside of -6.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 305.60 cents and EPS of 436.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 54.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 421.5, implying annual growth of -15.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 312.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 56.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 380.00 cents and EPS of 542.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 494.2, implying annual growth of 17.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 379.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQR    CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.94

Moelis rates ((CQR)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Charter Hall Retail REIT's FY21 funds from operations of 27.3 cents per share was in line with Moelis' forecast. 

Moelis notes performance recovery in the second half, with adjusted funds from operations increasing to 12.7 cents per unit from 10.7 cents per unit in the first half. The broker highlighted this result was assisted by reduced covid tenant support.

The broker expects current lockdowns to have a meaningful impact on FY22 earnings, but notes a strong rebound is expected once restrictions ease.

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target price increases to $4.02 from $3.89.

This report was published on August 20, 2021.

Target price is $4.02 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $0.08
If CQR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.05, suggesting upside of 1.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.30 cents and EPS of 28.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.7, implying annual growth of -45.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.80 cents and EPS of 29.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of 2.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWY    CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $2.61

Jarden rates ((CWY)) as Buy (1) –

Cleanaway Waste Management's FY21 earnings before tax of $259m was a miss on Jarden's forecast, but the broker notes the result was softened by an approximate $14m depreciation and amortisation step-up. 

While the company did not provide FY22 guidance, it was noted that the NSW lockdown was expected to incur a -$4m earnings impact in FY22. Given the extension of this lockdown, Jarden now expects that impact to be -$12m. Elsewhere, the Suez acquisition is expected to complete mid-FY22 but is subject to ACCC approval. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.00 from $2.90.

This report was published on August 20, 2021.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.61 Difference: $0.39
If CWY meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.73, suggesting upside of 2.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 8.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 4.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.40 cents and EPS of 9.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.4, implying annual growth of 27.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HT1    HT&E LIMITED

Out of Home Advertising – Overnight Price: $1.72

Canaccord Genuity rates ((HT1)) as Buy (1) –

Apart from the comprehensive earnings beat, Canaccord Genuity views the highlight of HT&E's first-half FY21 as the vigour with which management is investing materially in the growth in the audio business.

The broker notes that operating costs in FY21 are expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels ahead of revenue, which is still recovering from the dip in FY20.

While current initiatives could potentially bring this forward, Canaccord's modelling has Australian Radio Network's (ARN) earnings back at approximately FY19 levels in FY23.

Canaccord's FY21 earnings forecast increases only 4% due to the increased cost guidance, but with depreciation trending much lower than expected, the broker increases net profit and earning per share (EPS) forecasts by 18% and 15% respectively.

The Buy rating and target price of $2.40 are unchanged.

This report was published on August 20, 2021.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: $0.68
If HT1 meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.82, suggesting upside of 3.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.3, implying annual growth of 15.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MMM    MARLEY SPOON AG

Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $1.84

Sequoia rates ((MMM)) as Buy (1) –

Marley Spoon has closed out the first half of 2021 with 272,000 active users, up 17% half-on-half, and achieved revenue of EUR43.1m, up 23% half-on-half.

However, Sequoia notes a -EUR14.8m underlying earnings loss and a -EUR21.0m profit loss for the half. The broker notes this was impacted by US labour supply issues and a step change in discretionary costs.

Sequoia makes significant downgrades to forecasts following second quarter metrics. The broker notes Marley Spoon's strategy for 2022 and beyond suggests ongoing underlying earnings losses and makes no changes to revenue and profit loss forecasts for 2021 and 2022. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.67 from $2.98.

This report was published on August 19, 2021.

Target price is $2.67 Current Price is $1.84 Difference: $0.83
If MMM meets the Sequoia target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Sequoia forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 21.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.45.

Forecast for FY22:

Sequoia forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.11.

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MXI    MAXITRANS INDUSTRIES LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $3.86

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MXI)) as Buy (1) –

Due to a material improvement from the transport solutions division, MaxiTrans's reported underlying FY21 earnings of $27.1m, up 85% on revenues of $352m, up 11%.

Following the recently completed sale of its trailer manufacturing business, Trailer Solutions, management estimates are for the business to be in a net cash position of $7m.

The company has undrawn debt facilities of $10m and is looking to distribute $23.2m in a fully franked special dividend of 12.5cps to shareholders.

Canaccord Genuity notes management's strategy for growth includes complementing organic growth with greenfield expansion and acquisition growth.

Buy rating is unchanged and the target increases to $0.92 from $0.84.

This report was published on August 23, 2021.

Target price is $0.92 Current Price is $3.86 Difference: minus $2.94 (current price is over target).
If MXI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 77.20.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 128.67.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCM    NEWCREST MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $24.54

Shaw and Partners rates ((NCM)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners comments Newcrest Mining posted a strong operational and financial performance for the FY21, delivering a record net profit, up 55% year-on-year.

The FY21 dividend was 60% ahead of market expectations and 50% above Shaw's estimates.

Shaw notes in the next few months Newcrest is expected to finalise key Pre-Feasibility Studies for Red Chris, Havieron and Lihir.

Beyond the headline result, the broker believes the bigger achievement for Newcrest is the company's ability to work through the operational and balance sheet issues and successfully embark on a multi-decade production pathway ahead with 5 tier one assets with globally competitive costs.

Buy rating and target price of $44.00 are both unchanged.

The report was issued on August 20, 2021.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $24.54 Difference: $19.46
If NCM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.63, suggesting upside of 24.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 93.51 cents and EPS of 222.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 134.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 40.04 cents and EPS of 196.99 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.7, implying annual growth of 2.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWH    NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $1.82

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NWH)) as Buy (1) –

It is Canaccord Genuity's view that with an end-to-end contracting solutions offering, margins that have withstood labour challenges, a large pipeline of tender opportunities over the next 12 months; coupled with a strong balance sheet, longer-term free cash flow profile and diversified offering position, NRW Holdings is well-positioned to trade at a premium.

Due to recent acquisitions and mining margin resilience, the company delivered an FY21 earnings beat against the broker's forecasts.

Given the strong cash generation, the potential for margin upside and a very large tender pipeline, Canaccord believe the company is well-placed to grow through FY22 and FY23.

The Buy rating is unchanged and the target price increases to $2.44 from $2.12.

This report was published on august 20, 2021.

Target price is $2.44 Current Price is $1.82 Difference: $0.62
If NWH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 21.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.47.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.30 cents and EPS of 23.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.62.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((NWH)) as Buy (1) –

Given labour and mobility challenges, Moelis finds NRW Holdings' FY21 result strong. The company reported underlying earnings of $267m and profit after tax of $75m, both in line with the broker's forecast. 

While labour challenges continue, the company's requirements are shifting away from hotspots like the Pilbara and towards new projects and mining work with more stable workforces, which Moelis notes should alleviate some pressure. 

The company is guiding to FY22 revenue of $2.4-2.5bn, with $2.0bn already accounted for in the order book. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.10 from $3.04.

This report was published on August 20, 2021.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $1.82 Difference: $1.28
If NWH meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.67.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.65.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OZL    OZ MINERALS LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $24.23

Shaw and Partners rates ((OZL)) as Buy (1) –

Operational performance, higher copper volumes, and stronger prices have driven a beat for OZ Minerals in the first half of FY21. The company reported a 237% increase in profit after tax for the half, to total $269m, an approximate 15% beat on consensus forecasts.

OZ Minerals also announced a fully franked 8 cent per share dividend, as well as an 8 cent per share special dividend from strong financial performance. 

The company has signed off on the final investment decision for Prominent Hill, extending mine life, lowering operating costs, increasing annual production, and enabling lower emissions. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $22.50 from $25.00. 

This report was published on August 20, 2021.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $24.23 Difference: minus $1.73 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $23.69, suggesting upside of 1.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 160.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 167.3, implying annual growth of 156.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 158.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.0, implying annual growth of -7.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PWH    PWR HOLDINGS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $9.19

Moelis rates ((PWH)) as Hold (3) –

Largely driven by original equipment manufacturing (OEM) and Emerging Technology, PWR Holdings' delivered FY21 revenue of $79.2m, up 20.5% on the previous period, while net profit was a minor beat to Moelis' estimates due to improved gross profit and operating margins across the business.

While no formal guidance was provided, the company flagged a significant scale-up of staff by December 2022, and significant further capital investment in plant and machinery, in line with FY21.

Due to an expected ramp-up in emerging technology, 2022 F1 rules regulating a new car design, new OEM projects coming into production, and the aftermarket business continuing strong growth, the broker estimates strong net profit growth of 18% to 26% for FY22, FY23, and FY24.

Hold rating is retained with the target rising to $7.70.

This report was published on August 23, 2021.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $9.19 Difference: minus $1.49 (current price is over target).
If PWH meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.20 cents and EPS of 19.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.41.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.70 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.76.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32    SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $3.51

Shaw and Partners rates ((S32)) as Buy (1) –

South32's FY21 net profit was in line with consensus while underlying earnings more than doubled from the year prior.

Looking to FY22-23 production, the company expects to see strong volumes at the company's base metal operations, La Esmeralda, Cerro Matoso, and Cannington with improvement projects, while guidance is up at Cannington by 10%.

Heading onto FY22 Shaw and Partners believes the company is operationally sound and is experiencing tailwinds from key commodities – met coal, nickel, and aluminium – which should nudge margins higher in the near term.

The broker retains a Buy rating with a $3.30 target.

This report was published on August 20, 2021.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.66, suggesting upside of 7.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.82 cents and EPS of 32.99 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.83 cents and EPS of 28.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.9, implying annual growth of 0.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGP    STOCKLAND

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $4.67

Jarden rates ((SGP)) as Overweight (2) –

While Stockland's FY21 funds from operations per unit of 33.1 cents was at the top end of guidance, Jarden notes given the residential boom the market had been optimistic for more. The company is guiding to funds from operations per unit of 34.6-35.6 cents compared to Jarden's forecast 36.1 cents. 

Despite this, the broker notes FY22 is set to be a big year for residential, with lower defaults, around 85% of profits already locked in, and the book increasingly being sold forward.

The Underweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.60 from $4.50.

This report was published on August 20, 2021.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.67 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 2.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 27.50 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.0, implying annual growth of -28.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.30 cents and EPS of 37.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.5, implying annual growth of 4.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TRS    REJECT SHOP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $6.22

Jarden rates ((TRS)) as Buy (1) –

Considering lockdown and freight impacts, The Reject Shop has delivered a strong FY21 result. The company reported profit after tax of $8.4m, a more than 420% increase, and sales of $779m, with Jarden noting results were driven by execution on cost-out strategy. 

Jarden has downgraded FY22 earnings by around -30% on a weaker outlook for retail business and the continued impact of lockdowns, and the broker expects increased operating costs in the coming year.

The broker remains focused on long-term opportunity, and looking ahead increases sales forecasts for FY23 and FY24 by 1.4% given store expansions, with 20 new stores expected in FY22.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $9.80 from $10.00.

This report was published on August 19, 2021.

Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $6.22 Difference: $3.58
If TRS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.37, suggesting upside of 19.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.1, implying annual growth of 15.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.22 cents and EPS of 43.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.5, implying annual growth of 53.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE    TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $12.21

Jarden rates ((TWE)) as Sell (5) –

Jarden describes Treasury Wine Estates' pre-announced FY21 results as strong, with the company reporting profit after tax 3% ahead of consensus forecast and final dividend per share 8% ahead of forecast.

The broker also highlighted that second half underlying earnings in Asia, excluding China, were up 153% on the previous year. It is Jarden's view this result is evidence the China reallocation strategy is working.

Looking forward, Jarden noted less positive commentary on the pace of reopening, but near-term earnings could surprise if economies continue to reopen. 

The Underweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $11.00 from $9.70. 

This report was published on August 19, 2021.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $12.21 Difference: minus $1.21 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.98, suggesting downside of -0.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 46.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.0, implying annual growth of 32.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 52.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.7, implying annual growth of 18.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VTI    VISIONEERING TECHNOLOGIES INC

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.97

Canaccord Genuity rates ((VTI)) as Hold (3) –

Reflecting logistics costs and capacity constraints in global shipping due to covid, Visioneering Technologies' gross margins declined for the third consecutive quarter, despite the FY21 sales recovering from pandemic lows.

The company did not add to the commentary provided in the recent quarterly result.

While investors will have to wait until October to learn whether the company can maintain guidance, Canaccord Genuity expects Visioneering will require another capital raising in FY23.

Canaccord doesn't believe the current options that have an exercise price of $3.00/share with an exercise date of February 2024 will be useful within the broker's estimated time frame.

This leads the broker to downgrade the target price -12% to $1.05.

Hold rating is reaffirmed.

This report was published on August 23, 2021.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.97 Difference: $0.08
If VTI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 69.29.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 23.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.08.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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