Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Mar 14, 2022

This story features ADACEL TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ADA

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ADA   ALL   ATA   BHP   BOE   BSL   BXB   CIP   CSL   CTP   CXL   ELD   EVS   IAG   JAN   NHC   NIC   NUF   NWC   PDN   RMD   S32   WBC   WHC   XTE  

ADA    ADACEL TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $1.00

Bell Potter rates ((ADA)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter is forecasting Adacel Technologies to achieve full year profits at the lower end of its US$5.7-6.0m forecast guidance, predicting profit of US$5.7m. The forecast relies on second half profits of US$3.8m, a notable step up from the first half's US$1.9m. 

Adacel Technologies also announced the acquisition of a virtual air control traffic tower business in Estonia for EUR2.5m, which should contribute to fourth quarter metrics. Bell Potter assumes the acquisition is breakeven through to FY24. 

Adacel has changed to report data in USD rather than AUD, and Bell Potter has changed its reporting accordingly. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.30 from $1.50.

This report was published on March 11, 2022.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.3
If ADA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.10 cents and EPS of 7.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.48.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.10 cents and EPS of 8.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.15.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALL    ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $34.72

Jarden rates ((ALL)) as Buy (2) –

Jarden notes despite gaming operations outperforming, Aristocrat Leisure has suffered share price weakness recently. Peers including Applovin, Playtika, Roblox and Zynga all declined, appearing to drag on Aristocrat Leisure, but Jarden expects the stock will re-rate ahead. 

Digital results are in line with the company's expectations, but Jarden notes a lack of positive catalyst's in Aristocrat's outlook drove a target price reduction. The current target price still offers a 19.8% projected return. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price reduced to $41.75 from $46.73.

This report was published on March 9, 2022.

Target price is $41.75 Current Price is $34.72 Difference: $7.03
If ALL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $48.20, suggesting upside of 37.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 155.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 152.1, implying annual growth of 18.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 166.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.0, implying annual growth of 16.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ATA    ATTURRA LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $0.60

Shaw and Partners rates ((ATA)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners initiates on Atturra, an IT services provider for large enterprise and government clients. Operating in the $37bn  Australian IT services sector, the company should benefit from 6% annual sector growth and mega trends such as public cloud, SaaS adoption and cybersecurity.

The broker notes the acquisition of locally listed IT service providers by foreign companies leaves Atturra well-positioned to benefit from government ambitions to increase local spending in IT and cloud. 

In the coming three years, Shaw predicts earnings to grow to $16.9m from $6.7m, and earnings margins to increase to 10% from 6.8%. 

The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $0.96. 

This report was published on March 9, 2022.

Target price is $0.96 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.36
If ATA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.29.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.50 cents and EPS of 4.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.24.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP    BHP GROUP LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $47.69

Goldman Sachs rates ((BHP)) as No Rating (-1) –

Goldman Sachs points out the Russia-Ukraine conflict puts Russian coal exports at risk, based on possible sanctions and “self-sanctioning” by European and Asian utilities and steel mills. 

For BHP Group, the broker remains not rated though increases its FY22-24 EPS forecasts by 9%, 11% and 65, respectively, mostly due to revised met coal pricing.

This report was published on March 14, 2022.

Current Price is $47.69. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $48.54, suggesting upside of 1.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 479.08 cents and EPS of 638.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 554.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 417.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 361.67 cents and EPS of 583.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 405.6, implying annual growth of -26.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 286.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BOE    BOSS ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $2.67

Bell Potter rates ((BOE)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Following an overreaction, according to Bell Potter, to the Russian bombing of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine, the broker maintains its thesis for the long-term viability of nuclear power.

As a result of this view, Boss Energy remains a Speculative Buy with a $3.47 target price.

The analyst points to the current revival in the long-term contracting market, a key catalyst for Boss Energy to restart the Honeymoon project.

Additionally, an opportunity for nuclear power to re-enter the conversation may arise now that supply of Russian gas into Europe has become a concern, explains Bell Potter.

This report was published on March 10, 2022.

Target price is $3.47 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.8
If BOE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 267.00.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 267.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL    BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $19.00

Jarden rates ((BSL)) as Overweight (2) –

Given high volatility in commodity pricing Jarden has downgraded its full year earnings per share estimate for BlueScope steel by -3.7% and its second half earnings to $1,264m, still in line with the company guidance range of $1.20-1.35bn.

The broker notes it sees BlueScope Steel's predicted US$750 per tonne US steel spread average in the second half to be optimistic despite demand remaining strong, and instead forecasts an average of US$623 per tonne.

BlueScope Steel's US North Star business sources around one third of its pig iron supplies from Ukraine, but Jarden notes the company can substitute import with product from its Brazilian suppliers. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $23.60 from $25.00. 

This report was published on March 11, 2022.

Target price is $23.60 Current Price is $19.00 Difference: $4.6
If BSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.06, suggesting upside of 31.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 483.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 514.0, implying annual growth of 116.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 484.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 269.9, implying annual growth of -47.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BXB    BRAMBLES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $9.72

Jarden rates ((BXB)) as Overweight (2) –

In Jarden's view an investment in plastic pallet rollout from Brambles would introduce considerable risk to the existing lumber pallet pool, as well as execution risk, for only modest predicted returns. The company is set to announce an investment decision soon. 

The broker estimates capital expenditure of US$600-700m for the initiative, likely spread over 2-4 years with US$400 upfront in FY23. Jarden forecasts this could increase FY23 cash outflow to -US$544m from a current market prediction of -US$208m.

Jarden highlights the market may have overestimated impacts of the plastic pallet investment, but questions whether shareholders will be adequately compensated for risk. 

The Overweight rating and target price of $11.00 are retained. 

This report was published on March 9, 2022.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.72 Difference: $1.28
If BXB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.58, suggesting upside of 18.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 36.57 cents and EPS of 52.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 37.52 cents and EPS of 54.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.1, implying annual growth of 7.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIP    CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.82

Moelis rates ((CIP)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Centuria Industrial REIT's share price has declined -11.7% since a high in January, with Moelis noting the stock presents an attractive buying opportunity at its current price believing it should trade closer to net tangible assets. 

Industrial space leasing hit a record in 2021, and  with demand expected to outpace supply for another year the company should benefit from industrial market exposure. Expect upward pressure on rent, and sticky tenants as a tight market discourages looking elsewhere. 

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target price of $4.12 is retained.

This report was published on March 9, 2022.

Target price is $4.12 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: $0.3
If CIP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.21, suggesting upside of 8.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.30 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of -84.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 19.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL    CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $256.53

Wilsons rates ((CSL)) as Overweight (1) –

With CSL's acquisition of Vifor expected to settle mid-year, Wilsons notes approval of Vifor's vadadustat anaemia drug offers a US$450m sales opportunity and offers a test case of Vifor's access to US chronic renal markets. 

The drug is slated for FDA approval on March 29, and Vifor has obtained exclusive rights to sell the drug into Fresenius' dialysis centre network.

The Overweight rating and target price of $350 are retained. 

This report was published on March 14, 2022.

Target price is $350.00 Current Price is $256.53 Difference: $93.47
If CSL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $317.42, suggesting upside of 20.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 296.90 cents and EPS of 647.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 672.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 290.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 356.95 cents and EPS of 812.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 809.3, implying annual growth of 20.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 345.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTP    CENTRAL PETROLEUM LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $0.12

Bell Potter rates ((CTP)) as Buy (1) –

Central Petroleum's first half earnings of $10.0m and net profit of $30.5m were in line with Bell Potter's expectations. Reported profit included a $36.6m benefit from the partial interest sell down of operating assets, which allowed for a $29.0m debt repayment and an estimated reduction in net debt to $12.4m by year end. 

Looking forward, the company looks focused on exploration at its Palm Valley and Dingo wells, with drilling at both to commence in the second half, while the broker expects updates from drilling programs undertaken at two Range Gas wells in February. 

According to Bell Potter Central Petroleum looks to be in a strong position to grow gas reserves in a tightening gas market. 

The Buy rating and target price of $0.19 are retained.

This report was published on March 11, 2022.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.07
If CTP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.33.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CXL    CALIX LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $6.95

Shaw and Partners rates ((CXL)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners sees a positive tipping point for the valuation of Calix due to further commercialisation of two decades of research. It's expected this will provide clarity on how to value the many targeted industry verticals.

In addition, the company will enter the ASX300 Index on the 22nd of March. The broker lifts its target to $6.95 from $6.50 and maintains its Buy rating.

ESG tailwinds for the company's key calciner technology remain very positive, according to the analyst, with the EU carbon price recently hitting a EUR97/t record in early February.

This report was published on March 11, 2022.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $6.95 Difference: $0
If CXL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 99.29.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 113.93.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELD    ELDERS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $12.00

Shaw and Partners rates ((ELD)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners initiates on rural services and agricultural product provider Elders. According to the broker the company has a proven performance history, growing earnings to $166.5m from $27.3m between FY14-21, and targets 10-15% annual earnings growth. 

The broker notes the agriculture sector offers consistent demand which grows with population. Further, domestic agriculture sector conditions are strong and the Bureau of Agriculture predicts net farm cash to grow 29% by financial year end to $31.6bn.

Shaw and Partners awaits a FY22 trading update in late May, but finds Elders to trade at attractive multiples compared to peers Nufarm ((NUF)) and GrainCorp ((GNC)). The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $15.00. 

This report was published on March 11, 2022.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.00 Difference: $3
If ELD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.63, suggesting upside of 3.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 77.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.6, implying annual growth of -21.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.8, implying annual growth of 0.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVS    ENVIROSUITE LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $0.18

Sequoia rates ((EVS)) as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) –

Following 1H results, Sequoia Financial Group lowers its target price for EnviroSuite to $0.21 from $0.23 and decreases its rating to Accumulate from Buy. Revenue for the 1H was a 1% beat versus expectation.

The broker believes investors should take a longer-term view to allow execution of the growing pipeline, and for the new EVS Water business to achieve some milestones.

Noting the company is not yet profitable, the analyst points out the new EVS Water business still only has around five initial client sites, some on a trial basis.

This report was published on March 4, 2022.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.03
If EVS meets the Sequoia target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Sequoia forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 30.00.

Forecast for FY23:

Sequoia forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 60.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG    INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $4.31

Jarden rates ((IAG)) as Buy (1) –

Following flood events in Queensland and New South Wales in recent weeks Insurance Australia Group lifted its catastrophe costs for FY22 by $55m, to now total $1.1bn. The company guided to an insurance trading ratio margin at the lower half of its 10-12% range. 

Increased catastrophe costs drove a -5% decline to Jarden's earnings per share forecasts for the year. The broker also noted catastrophe costs are likely to rise into FY23 given the increasing frequency of events due to climate change. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreased to $5.25 from $5.50 

This report was published on March 9, 2022.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.31 Difference: $0.94
If IAG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.98, suggesting upside of 13.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 20.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.8, implying annual growth of 46.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JAN    JANISON EDUCATION GROUP LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $0.90

Taylor Collison rates ((JAN)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Following a largely in line first half result release from Janison Education Group, Taylor Collison looks to the acquisition of Academic Assessment Services, noting the purchase seems reasonably priced and in line with a strategy of acquiring analogue test capabilities to convert to digital. 

The acquisition will be key to the direct-to-parent offering, expected to launch in the coming financial year. 

Analysts noted assessment revenue surprised positively in the half, reaching $14.8m compared to an expected $12.5m, supported by increased spend per client and new client wins. 

The Speculative Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.18 from $1.38.

This report was published on March 7, 2022.

Target price is $1.18 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.28
If JAN meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 64.75.

Forecast for FY23:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 103.45.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHC    NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $2.86

Goldman Sachs rates ((NHC)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs points out the Russia-Ukraine conflict puts Russian coal exports at risk, based on possible sanctions and “self-sanctioning” by European and Asian utilities and steel mills. Importantly, Russian thermal coal is circa 20% of the high value thermal market.

For New Hope, the broker increases its target to $2.90 from $2.60 after adjusting FY22-24 EPS forecasts by 43%, 26% and -8% on higher coal price forecasts, partially offset by some cost increases. The Neutral rating is unchanged.

This report was published on March 14, 2022.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $0.04
If NHC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 15.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 107.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 17.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.2, implying annual growth of 804.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 12.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 15.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.4, implying annual growth of -35.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NIC    NICKEL MINES LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $1.20

Bell Potter rates ((NIC)) as Buy (1) –

Nickel Mines is the junior partner co-investing in production assets with the Chinese company Tsingshan in several Indonesian nickel projects.

Media reports of Tsingshan being caught on the wrong side of a short squeeze in nickel prices has created a buying opportunity for Nickel Mines, in Bell Potter's opinion. This comes as the company's share price fell materially on the media speculation.

The Buy rating for Nickel Mines is unchanged as the broker notes underlying fundamentals of the business are unchanged, apart from  upward pressure on nickel pig iron prices. The $1.76 target is retained.

This report was published on March 10, 2022.

Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.56
If NIC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.54, suggesting upside of 28.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.10 cents and EPS of 17.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 33.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.3, implying annual growth of 31.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NUF    NUFARM LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $5.65

Bell Potter rates ((NUF)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter performs an overall review of crop protection trade flows and acreage information, given they are key drivers of supply and demand in Nufarm's core markets.

Overall, the analyst feels the company can cope with normalisation in elevated Australian demand levels over FY22-23, as acreages in North America and Europe are recovering.

Apart from divisional changes, where the broker lifts forecasts for the APAC region and the US at the expense of Europe, no material changes are made to group level forecasts. The Buy rating and $6.40 target are unchanged.

This report was published on March 10, 2022.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: $0.75
If NUF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.18, suggesting upside of 6.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 22.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of 78.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 27.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.4, implying annual growth of 11.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWC    NEW WORLD RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $0.06

Petra Capital rates ((NWC)) as Buy (1) –

Further mineralisation intersections at New World Resources' Antler Copper project reinforced a potential resource expansion according to Petra Capital, notably 75 metres deeper than the previous deepest intersection. 

The company recently spent US$2.25m to purchase land adjacent to the project, highlighting confidence in a resource upgrade. The increased footprint should also simplify approval processes, as potential surface disturbance will be to privately owned land. 

The Buy rating and target price of $0.14 are retained. 

This report was published on March 7, 2022.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.08
If NWC meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 133% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 60.00.

Forecast for FY23:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 60.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PDN    PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $0.87

Bell Potter rates ((PDN)) as Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold (1) –

Bell Potter upgrades its rating for Paladin Energy to Speculative Buy from Hold. The $0.96 target price is retained.

The broker sees a buying opportunity from a market overreaction (broad-based uranium shares selloff) to the Russian shelling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine.

The analyst reiterates its stance on the long-term viability of nuclear power, and points out Paladin Energy is the largest and most liquid exposure to uranium on the ASX. 

This report was published on March 10, 2022.

Target price is $0.96 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.09
If PDN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 64.44.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 64.44.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMD    RESMED INC

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $32.83

Wilsons rates ((RMD)) as Overweight (1) –

Impacts of the Philips CPAP machine recall continue, and Wilsons reiterates that ResMed will likely win market share in the fall out. The FDA has ordered Philips to communicate the extent and severity of its recall to US patients more directly. 

Philips and its medical equipment customers have been slow to respond, with 650,000 of the 2.6m affected patients identified by Philips, having received replacement devices according to the company.

Wilsons reaffirms that Philips is unlikely to be competitive in the new patient market until 2023. The broker sees opportunity for ResMed to benefit from a sales windfall in the first half of FY23 if the company can scale-up supply to address excess demand.

The Overweight rating and target price of $42.18 are retained. 

This report was published on March 14, 2022.

Target price is $42.18 Current Price is $32.83 Difference: $9.35
If RMD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $38.24, suggesting upside of 16.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.81 cents and EPS of 83.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.48 cents and EPS of 93.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.4, implying annual growth of 19.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32    SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $4.89

Goldman Sachs rates ((S32)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs points out the Russia-Ukraine conflict puts Russian coal exports at risk, based on possible sanctions and “self-sanctioning” by European and Asian utilities and steel mills. 

For South32, the broker raises its target to $5.90 from $4.40 after increasing FY22-24 EPS forecasts by by 10%, 9% and 2% mostly on higher pulverised coal for injection (PCI) and semi-soft prices. The Buy rating is unchanged.

The analyst assumes 60% of earnings will be paid out with the FY22 result, comprising a 40% ordinary and 30% special dividend component.

This report was published on March 14, 2022.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $1.01
If S32 meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.38, suggesting upside of 9.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 38.73 cents and EPS of 74.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 69.37 cents and EPS of 92.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 14.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.3, implying annual growth of -14.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC    WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks – Overnight Price: $22.67

Bell Potter rates ((WBC)) as Hold (3) –

Given Westpac's historic costs, Bell Potter finds it unlikely that the bank will be able to reduce its cost base to $8.0bn by FY24 as targeted, extrapolating that at best the company can keep full year costs to $9.0bn. 

The broker highlighted FY21 full year costs of $10.94bn did include some one-offs, including covid support costs, but looking back to 2018 the company has, on average, reported six month costs of $4.99bn.

The broker noted this leaves a sizeable $1.0bn gap between its predictions and Westpac's target, and the bank has provided little in the way of definitive figures to demonstrate how it will achieve lower costs. 

The Hold rating and target price of $24.00 are retained.

This report was published on March 11, 2022.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $22.67 Difference: $1.33
If WBC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.90, suggesting upside of 7.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 168.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.0, implying annual growth of 3.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 127.00 cents and EPS of 204.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 187.8, implying annual growth of 21.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 134.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WHC    WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $4.04

Goldman Sachs rates ((WHC)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs points out the Russia-Ukraine conflict puts Russian coal exports at risk, based on possible sanctions and “self-sanctioning” by European and Asian utilities and steel mills. Importantly, Russian thermal coal is circa 20% of the high value thermal market.

For Whitehaven Coal, the broker adjusts its FY22-24 EPS forecasts by 48%, 34% and -4% on higher thermal, pulverised coal for injection (PCI) and semi-soft coal price forecasts, partially offset by some cost increases.

The price target rises to $4.70 from $3.90 and the Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on March 9, 2022.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: $0.66
If WHC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 15.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 155.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 13.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 108.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 13.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.9, implying annual growth of -23.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.5.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

XTE    XTEK LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $0.25

Taylor Collison rates ((XTE)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Taylor Collison expects the recent conflict in Ukraine, among other security related events, should drive increased defense spend and increased revenue opportunities for Xtek. 

The broker notes the company suffered a challenging first half, with revenue decreasing -7% on the previous comparable period and resulting in a first half loss of -$6.8m. Management has guided to a much improved second half cash flow performance. 

Looking ahead, Xtek is currently bidding for two contracts with the Australian Defense Force, with Taylor Collison noting defense contract wins are critical to company growth.

The Speculative Buy rating is retained. 

This report was published on March 8, 2022.

Current Price is $0.25. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.17.

Forecast for FY23:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.62.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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