CALIX LIMITED (CXL)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

18/11/2025

1

Buy

$1.70

151.85%

Calix has a joint development agreement with Rio Tinto ((RIO)) for its zero emissions steel technology in Kwinana, WA. Shaw and Partners believes this is a significant step towards commercial and financial commitments and a FID.

The venture is non-exclusive and the plant will be built on "neutral" territory, which leaves room for other participants if necessary.

The broker believes this is a major step in the company's drive to produce green iron and steel, with Rio Tinto's participation adding credibility to the technology.

No changes to forecasts are made and a Buy rating and $1.70 target are maintained.

FORECAST
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -10.60 cents.
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -9.80 cents.

02/09/2025

1

Buy

$1.90

181.48%

Canaccord Genuity notes Calix's FY25 revenue grew 17% y/y as strong growth in the Water business in 2H offset slowing in Leilac revenues. Cash balance of $23m was in line with the broker's forecast.

Slowing revenue in Leilac prompted the broker to lower the estimate for FY26, resulting in a cut to gross profit forecast, partly offset by lower capex. EBITDA forecast for FY26 is -$13.6m vs -23m in FY25.

FY27 EBITDA is expected to be positive at $4.4m, helped by lithium midstream revenue and rebound in Leilac, and a lower capex forecast than before.

Buy. Target cut to $1.90 from $2.40 on higher share count and removal of lithium midstream plan out of valuation due to start-up timing uncertainty.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of minus -10.60 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 EPS of minus -2.20 cents.