Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Apr 05, 2022

This story features AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AIZ

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AIZ   COL   CYG   EDV   HVN   JBH   JLG   MCL   MTS   STO   TOY   TSI   TWE   UNI   WES   WOW  

AIZ    AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $0.89

Jarden rates ((AIZ)) as Sell (5) –

Air New Zealand announced a NZ$1.2bn equity raise as part of a $2.2bn recapitalisation that also includes NZ$600m of redeemable shares and a new NZ$400m four-year Crown loan. Jarden notes the government has committed to the purchase of NZ$602m of new shares.

The broker expects NZ$850m will be used to pay off the existing Crown loan, while NZ$950m will recapitalise the balance sheet and the NZ$400m loan facility will remain undrawn.

The company also updated full year loss to be less than -NZ$800m (previously exceeding -NZ$800m) and expects positive operating cash flow from the first quarter of FY23. 

The Sell rating is retained and the target price decreases to NZ$0.65 from NZ$0.80.

This report was published on March 30, 2022.

Current Price is $0.89. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 36.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.42.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 104.95.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COL    COLES GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $17.90

Goldman Sachs rates ((COL)) as Neutral (3) –

In its first edition of The Race for the New Digital Consumer, Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage on the food and beverage sector and home retailers. 

The broker says that while these companies have benefited from covid-induced in-home consumption, normalisation and cost inflation will come home to bite, and suggests that those retailers that capitalise on the consumer's digital shift will be better able to manage growing complexity and volatility; be it through BNPL and omni-channel commerce, multi-screen connectivity, and personalised content.

In this respect, Goldman Sachs favours food and beverage retailers over home retailers.

The analysts resumes coverage of Coles Group with a Neutral rating and $16.40 target price. This compares with the broker's last rating in the FNArena database for Coles in May '21 of a Buy rating and $20.50 target price.

Goldman Sachs considers Coles to be less advanced in digital and data capabilities than Woolworths ((WOW)), but expects Coles will offer a better inflation defense in the short term given it enjoys a modicum of protection from global supply chain disruptions due to greater local sourcing of produce.

But in the medium to long term, the broker believes Coles' lower quality consumer data assets will result in a widening market-share gap.

This report was published on March 27, 2022.

Target price is $16.40 Current Price is $17.90 Difference: minus $1.5 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $18.81, suggesting upside of 5.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 58.80 cents and EPS of 73.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.8, implying annual growth of 0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 74.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.7, implying annual growth of 9.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CYG    COVENTRY GROUP LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $1.62

Shaw and Partners rates ((CYG)) as Buy (1) –

Coventry Group has finalised two Trade Distribution bolt-on acqusiitions to be funded through the company's existing debt facility: Goudie Holding and NZ Planks Limited for NZ$9m; and Fraser Coast Bolts and Industrial Supplies for $2.8m.

Shaw and Partners considers the acquisition price attractive and forecasts mid to high-single digit EPS accretion over three years. 

The broker expects the balance sheet is most likely approaching capacity after the recent inventory build and acquisitions but expects the inventory should convert to high-margin sales in the near term.

EPS forecasts rise 3% in FY22, 9% in FY23 and 8% in FY24. Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $2.33 from $2.23, representing a total shareholder return of 46%.

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Target price is $2.33 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.71
If CYG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 11.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.73.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 16.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.64.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EDV    ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $7.40

Goldman Sachs rates ((EDV)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

In its first edition of The Race for the New Digital Consumer, Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage on the food and beverage sector and home retailers. 

The broker says that while these companies have benefited from covid-induced in-home consumption, normalisation and cost inflation will come home to bite, and suggests that those retailers that capitalise on the consumer's digital shift will be better able to manage growing complexity and volatility; be it through BNPL and omni-channel commerce, multi-screen connectivity, and personalised content.

In this respect, Goldman Sachs favours food and beverage retailers over home retailers.

Endeavour Group is the broker's top pick.

Goldman Sachs initiates coverage of the company with a Buy rating and $8 target price, saying the company's consumer assets and loyalty are unrivalled for a specialty retailer and that it is better shielded from global supply chain disruption given its predominantly local sourcing and its ownership of Pinnacle Brands.

The company faces low competition and enjoys strong barriers to entry, and benefits from complementary growth in own-brand and hotels, the latter likely to benefit from normalisaiton, says the broker.

This report was published on March 27, 2022.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.40 Difference: $0.6
If EDV meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.20, suggesting downside of -2.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.60 cents and EPS of 27.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of 11.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 26.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of 11.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HVN    HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $5.20

Goldman Sachs rates ((HVN)) as Buy (1) –

In its first edition of The Race for the New Digital Consumer, Goldman Sachs has resumed coverage on the food and beverage sector and home retailers. 

The broker says that while these companies have benefited from covid-induced in-home consumption, normalisation and cost inflation will come home to bite, and suggests that those retailers that capitalise on the consumer's digital shift will be better able to manage growing complexity and volatility; be it through BNPL and omni-channel commerce, multi-screen connectivity, and personalised content.

In this respect, Goldman Sachs favours food and beverage retailers over home retailers.

Amongst the home retailers, the broker prefers Harvey Normal Holdings and retains a Buy rating and $5.80 target price. This compares with the last entry in the FNArena database of a Buy rating and $6 target price in October.

While the analyst notes Harvey Norman is not the most advanced retailer digitally (its online penetration of 8% is miniscule compared with rival JB Hi-Fi's ((JBH)) 25%), it is relatively shielded against disruption given its brand strength amongst the boomer generation and higher exposure to regional Australia.

Add to that the standard benefits from it strong property portfolio as well as the option to transform them into e-commerce service hubs in the event of a shock to the physical retail portfolio, and the broker is positive.

Goldman Sachs also considers the stock to be undervalued and appreciates the 8% dividend yield.

This report was published on March 27, 2022.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.20 Difference: $0.6
If HVN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.05, suggesting upside of 16.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 43.30 cents and EPS of 55.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.1, implying annual growth of -24.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 39.60 cents and EPS of 43.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.6, implying annual growth of -16.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH    JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $52.65

Goldman Sachs rates ((JBH)) as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) –

In its first edition of The Race for the New Digital Consumer, Goldman Sachs has resumed coverage on the food and beverage sector and home retailers. 

The broker says that while these companies have benefited from covid-induced in-home consumption, normalisation and cost inflation will come home to bite, and suggests that those retailers that capitalise on the consumer's digital shift will be better able to manage growing complexity and volatility; be it through BNPL and omni-channel commerce, multi-screen connectivity, and personalised content.

In this respect, Goldman Sachs favours food and beverage retailers over home retailers.

The broker downgrades JB Hi-Fi to Sell from Neutral and cuts the target price to $39 from $52.

Goldman Sachs notes the company has benefited from the work-from-home trend, strong housing growth and the low-interest rate cycle, but expects all of these factors will reverse, matters being further aggravated by global commodity inflation and covid-induced supply-chain disruptions in China.

Online competition is also intensifying and the broker believes the company is under-investing for growth and advantage building.

This report was published on March 27, 2022.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $52.65 Difference: minus $13.65 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $57.65, suggesting upside of 9.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 287.00 cents and EPS of 413.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 415.6, implying annual growth of -5.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 270.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 229.00 cents and EPS of 351.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 374.5, implying annual growth of -9.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 241.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JLG    JOHNS LYNG GROUP LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $8.80

Canaccord Genuity rates ((JLG)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes Johns Lyng Group has high levels of catastrophe work in and hand and rising, due to the recent South-East Queensland and NSW flood, having entered a contract with the NSW Government through the $142m Property Assessment and Demolition program.

Management has already guided to FY22 catastrophe revenues of $100m (Canaccord estimates $120m).

The broker upgrades earnings and revenue estimates.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $9.05 from $8.51.

This report was published on March 31, 2022.

Target price is $9.05 Current Price is $8.80 Difference: $0.25
If JLG meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 58.67.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MCL    MIGHTY CRAFT LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $0.31

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MCL)) as Buy (1) –

Mighty Craft has published a strategy update and announced a whisky funding initiative that reduced working capital while maintaining most of its value creation. 

Canaccord Genuity finds the most material takeaway to be the sharply higher beer/cider/RTD annual sales target (double the previous target, which the broker says demonstrates strong growth outside Better Beer volumes and management is prioritising building Better Beer into a top-10 brand.

The broker points out that all save one of the top-10 beers are owned by one of two major incumbents and historically, successful independent brands have been acquired.

The company also announced the proposed implementation of a working capital financing vehicle aligned with the company's whisky acceleration strategy, which aims to raise $10m from investors in return for a low double-digit percentage fixed income returns and warrants in MCL headstock with a strike price of 35c a share expiring in September 2024.

Canaccord is awaiting further disclosure on the proposal. 

Speculative Buy rating and 54c target price retained. 

This report was published on March 30, 2022.

Target price is $0.54 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.23
If MCL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS    METCASH LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $4.48

Goldman Sachs rates ((MTS)) as Neutral (3) –

In its first edition of The Race for the New Digital Consumer, Goldman Sachs has resumed coverage on the food and beverage sector and home retailers. 

The broker says that while these companies have benefited from covid-induced in-home consumption, normalisation and cost inflation will come home to bite, and suggests that those retailers that capitalise on the consumer's digital shift will be better able to manage growing complexity and volatility; be it through BNPL and omni-channel commerce, multi-screen connectivity, and personalised content.

In this respect, Goldman Sachs favours food and beverage retailers over home retailers.

The broker resumes coverage of Metcash with a Neutral rating and $4.10 target price, believing the company's share price already factors in its buoyant hardware business and exposure to the defensive food and beverage sector.

This compares with the broker's last inclusion in the FNArena database in May '21 of a Buy rating and $3.95 target price.

Goldman Sachs says Metcash should benefit from the inflationary market, with the strongest price through forecast in the second half of 2023 and notes that, as a wholesaler, the company also stands to gain from timing benefits from stock profits.

The broker expects the company's hardware store expansion will more than offset the industry's unfavourable outlook but notes the company remains a laggard in digitalisation. The company has pledged $65m in digital investments but the broker doubts this will be sufficient and says the gap may erode the advantage of its personalised, localised brand.

This report was published on March 27, 2022.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $4.48 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If MTS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 6.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 25.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of 21.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 19.50 cents and EPS of 27.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO    SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $7.92

Jarden rates ((STO)) as Overweight (2) –

Santos has announced a 30% reduction target post the Oil Search merger in Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 2030 and plans to reach net zero emissions by 2040.

Jarden considers the 2030 target as achievable, citing the the Moomba CCS project. The broker notes hydrogen, ammonia and direct air capture are progressing but the economics remain challenging as carbon prices rise.

Overweight rating and $8.55 target price is unchanged.

This report was published on March 31, 2022.

Target price is $8.55 Current Price is $7.92 Difference: $0.63
If STO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.47, suggesting upside of 19.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 28.81 cents and EPS of 99.27 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 20.96 cents and EPS of 64.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.3, implying annual growth of -21.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TOY    TOYS 'R' US ANZ LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $0.13

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TOY)) as Buy (1) –

Toys 'R' Us ANZ's December first-half result met Canaccord Genuity and consensus forecasts, albeit the company posting a loss (EBITDA) due to marketing and growth investment.

Management pointed to growing confidence in the UK market, the company establishing online penetration of 60% and enjoying growing consumer brand recognition accordingly, and plans store launches in mid year. Management expects the UK market could deliver run-rating revenue greater than AN&Z by Christmas and Canaccord factors in a higher contribution from the region.

Earnings (EBIDTDA) forecasts fall extend losses to reflect a rise in the broker's marketing and operational expenditure assumptions.

Buy rating retained, the broker expecting FY22 to be a transformational year. Target price falls to 24c from 25c.

This report was published on April 1, 2022.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.11
If TOY meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.44.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.67.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TSI    TOP SHELF INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $1.61

Shaw and Partners rates ((TSI)) as Buy (1) –

After a site visit to Top Shelf International's agave plantation, Shaw and Partners believes agave alone can perhaps underwrite all of the company's current valuation (multiples of the current valuation), without including the NED whisky and Grainshaker Vodka brands.

The broker believes the company may prove an acquisition target if a share-price re-rate fails to materialise, the company likely proving attracting to companies such as Diaegeo, Pernod Ricard, and Anheuser-Busch.

The company is targeting first tequila production in mid 2023 and the broker believes it could upend the Mexican tequila market.

Biu rating retained. Target price is $2.27.

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Target price is $2.27 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.66
If TSI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 26.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.05.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 80.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE    TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $11.65

Jarden rates ((TWE)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden reiterates its $13 target for Treasury Wine Estates and sees upside for the Treasury Premium Brands division. There's considered to be potential for expansion into China and scope for a Chinese Penfolds product (as per press speculation).

The company remains a key Overweight rating for the broker due to low expectations. In addition, Treasury Wine Estates is seen as a reopening play, and a beneficiary of an improving global supply/demand dynamic, as well as inflation.

The medium-term operating backdrop for the company is the most favourable in recent years, according to the analyst.

This report was published on March 30, 2022.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.65 Difference: $1.35
If TWE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.34, suggesting upside of 14.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 45.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.2, implying annual growth of 27.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 56.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.8, implying annual growth of 24.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UNI    UNIVERSAL STORE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $5.93

Wilsons rates ((UNI)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

After a site visit, Wilsons is confident that management will succeed with plans to roll out at least 20 Perfect Stranger stores and includes it this in its valuation.

FY22 EPS estimates are raised 0.4%.

The broker upgrades to Overweight from Market Weight. Target price is steady at $6.80.

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $5.93 Difference: $0.87
If UNI meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting upside of 44.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 25.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of -12.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 48.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.1, implying annual growth of 48.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES    WESFARMERS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $49.40

Goldman Sachs rates ((WES)) as Sell (5) –

In its first edition of The Race for the New Digital Consumer, Goldman Sachs has resumed coverage on the food and beverage sector and home retailers. 

The broker says that while these companies have benefited from covid-induced in-home consumption, normalisation and cost inflation will come home to bite, and suggests that those retailers that capitalise on the consumer's digital shift will be better able to manage growing complexity and volatility; be it through BNPL and omni-channel commerce, multi-screen connectivity, and personalised content.

In this respect, Goldman Sachs favours food and beverage retailers over home retailers.

The broker resumes coverage of Wesfarmers with a Sell rating and $38.60 target price. This compares with Goldman Sachs' last entry in April 2021 of a Buy rating and $59.70 target price. 

The analyst is cautious on the company, noting core business growth is slowing, that consensus ratings are overly bullish, that the company lacks a second leg for attractive growth with recent acquisitions proving dilutive, and that the company risks a devaluation as growth slows and returns compress as the company's lack of clear strategy in the face of growing competition bites.

The broker also points to KMart's supply-chain exposure to China

This report was published on March 27, 2022.

Target price is $38.60 Current Price is $49.40 Difference: minus $10.8 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $54.10, suggesting upside of 9.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 169.90 cents and EPS of 199.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 194.2, implying annual growth of -7.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 172.40 cents and EPS of 202.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 212.9, implying annual growth of 9.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 172.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOW    WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $36.91

Goldman Sachs rates ((WOW)) as Buy (1) –

In its first edition of The Race for the New Digital Consumer, Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage on the food and beverage sector and home retailers. 

The broker says that while these companies have benefited from covid-induced in-home consumption, normalisation and cost inflation will come home to bite, and suggests that those retailers that capitalise on the consumer's digital shift will be better able to manage growing complexity and volatility; be it through BNPL and omni-channel commerce, multi-screen connectivity, and personalised content.

In this respect, Goldman Sachs favours food and beverage retailers over home retailers.

Woolworths Group ranks second to Endeavour Group ((EDV)) as Goldman's sector pick and the broker resumes coverage of the company with a Buy rating and $40.50 target price. Goldman Sachs' last rating for Woolworths in the FNArena database was in July at $43.

The broker notes Woolworths is a leader in digital consumer strategy and should be able to benefit from alternative revenue streams through its media business, which it says is not factored in by the market and would add 6% to the broker's valuation.

Goldman Sachs also appreciates the company's defensive characteristics in an inflationary environment.

This report was published on March 27, 2022.

Target price is $40.50 Current Price is $36.91 Difference: $3.59
If WOW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.08, suggesting upside of 0.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 93.00 cents and EPS of 113.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.8, implying annual growth of -27.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 111.40 cents and EPS of 147.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.5, implying annual growth of 15.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 99.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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