Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jun 05, 2023

This story features ALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALQ

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALQ   APA   APX   ARX   BOQ   CGF (2)   HAS   LLL   NHC   PDN   QAN (2)   QBE   RXL   TAH   WES (2)  

ALQ    ALS LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $11.68

Jarden rates ((ALQ)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight (4) –

ALS Ltd's FY23 net profit was broadly in line with expectations. Jarden observes the underlying performance of the commodities business is strong even though evidence is emerging that geochemistry is experiencing a decline in sampling flow rates.

Life sciences profitability was dragged down by a deterioration in underlying earnings at Nuvisan. The broker forecasts a decline in core net profit in FY24 of -3.5%, driven largely by weaker earnings growth in commodities as it cycles a period of elevated activity.

Slower growth in life sciences is also expected. Rating is downgraded to Underweight from Overweight and the target reduced to $11.35  from $12.55.

This report was published on May 29, 2023.

Target price is $11.35 Current Price is $11.68 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If ALQ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.96, suggesting upside of 2.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 40.80 cents and EPS of 63.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.1, implying annual growth of 12.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 43.50 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.5, implying annual growth of 5.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APA    APA GROUP

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $10.13

Jarden rates ((APA)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (2) –

Jarden initiates coverage on APA Group with an Overweight rating and $10.95 target. The utilities company has over 15,000km of gas pipelines and generates the majority of its revenue from CPI-linked contracts.

The utility's priority is investment in the Australian electricity sector in order to participate in the $250bn of investment required to decarbonise the east coast electricity grid.

The broker notes the business is also positioned to benefit from increased reliance on gas volumes in Queensland to meet gas demand on the east coast.

This report was published on May 30, 2023.

Target price is $10.95 Current Price is $10.13 Difference: $0.82
If APA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.35, suggesting upside of 2.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of 40.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 58.50 cents and EPS of 29.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of 14.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APX    APPEN LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $3.76

Canaccord Genuity rates ((APX)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity observes the Appen technology briefing showcased a re-vamped C-suite and presented an optimistic view. The main priority was stabilising a significant decline in expenditure in the company's top customer.

The broker updates its modelling to include the recent equity raising and assesses sentiment is improving around the stock. Hold rating maintained. Target rises to $3.20 from $2.40.

This report was published on June 1, 2023.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: minus $0.56 (current price is over target).
If APX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.99, suggesting downside of -47.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 20.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -34.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 289.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARX    AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.91

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ARX)) as Buy (1) –

Aroa Biosurgery's FY23 results were in line with expectations. Canaccord Genuity notes Myriad continues to perform well and is a key lever for growth. FY24 revenue guidance is relatively in line and takes into account a TELA inventory work-through and ongoing investment in sales and marketing. 

Aroa Biosurgery remains one of the broker's top picks in its medical technology coverage with long-term sustainable growth prospects. The business features clinically proven, effective products in wound care and tissue repair which differentiates it from peers on a performance basis.

Buy rating and $1.50 target maintained.

This report was published on June 1, 2023.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.595
If ARX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 98.91.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.65 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 54.95.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BOQ    BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $5.51

Goldman Sachs rates ((BOQ)) as Neutral (3) –

Bank of Queensland has entered an enforceable undertaking with both APRA and AUSTRAC to address the remediation of issues in respect of its risk management practices and its anti-money laundering program.

Taking into account the $50m of additional operating risk capital, Goldman Sachs lowers its second half CET1 forecast to 10.6%, which reduces the target to $6.20 from $6.45. The broker notes the ratio remains within the bank's revised range of 10.25-75%. Neutral retained.

This report was published on May 31, 2023.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.51 Difference: $0.69
If BOQ meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.47, suggesting upside of 17.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.2, implying annual growth of -4.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.9, implying annual growth of -11.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGF    CHALLENGER LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $6.25

Goldman Sachs rates ((CGF)) as Neutral (3) –

Challenger slightly upgraded guidance, above the mid point of the range, at its investor briefing, with the capital position also above the midpoint of the target range.

Life growth opportunities were flagged while Goldman Sachs notes allocation of life assets could be changed into FY24, as the company envisages value in fixed income as opposed to property. Value was also cited in asset-backed finance and unlisted equity.

The broker retains a Neutral rating with a $6.42 target believing Challenger faces a favourable sales environment for higher margin retail annuities resulting in improved product value from higher yields.

This report was published on May 31, 2023.

Target price is $6.42 Current Price is $6.25 Difference: $0.17
If CGF meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.99, suggesting upside of 11.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.3, implying annual growth of 15.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 57.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of 26.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((CGF)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden assesses the update from Challenger regarding the strategic steps it is taking should mean the life division tilts towards longer-dated and higher margin business.

While potential success is difficult to gauge, the broker believes the risks are skewed to the upside both in terms of life book growth and spread margins.

The broker expects the mix will shift away from short-duration institutional annuities and maturity rates in FYY24 should improve. Overweight rating and $7.20 target maintained.

This report was published on May 31, 2023.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.25 Difference: $0.95
If CGF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.99, suggesting upside of 11.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.50 cents and EPS of 46.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.3, implying annual growth of 15.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.90 cents and EPS of 52.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of 26.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HAS    HASTINGS TECHNOLOGY METALS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $1.61

Canaccord Genuity rates ((HAS)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Hastings Technology Metals has a new two-stage development strategy for Yangibana. Canaccord Genuity can understand the benefits of a staged development plan which will accelerate the speed to market and reduce execution risk of the stage 1 build.

Still, there is a funding gap which the company expects to be finalised by September. The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged. Target is reduced to $3.25 from $4.50.

This report was published on May 31, 2023.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $1.64
If HAS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 102% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.13.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 161.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LLL    LEO LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.88

Jarden rates ((LLL)) as Buy (1) –

Leo Lithium a secured $106m in new funding from Ganfeng Lithium, is joint venture partner for the Goulamina project in Mali. Jarden believes this is enough to progress the project.

The placement also dilutes the Firefinch ((FFX)) stake to 15.9%, with the broker noting the administration process for Firefinch is still underway and the stake could offer the opportunity to influence the strategic direction of Leo Lithium.

Buy rating retained. Target increases to $1.33 from $1.22.

This report was published on May 29, 2023.

Target price is $1.33 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: $0.455
If LLL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 145.83.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.75.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHC    NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $4.79

Goldman Sachs rates ((NHC)) as Sell (5) –

Bengalla thermal coal mine in NSW sold 2.15mt of coal in the third quarter, up 47% and broadly in line with Goldman Sachs' estimates.

New Hope has noted costs beginning to stabilise with unit costs at Bengalla slightly better than the first half because of higher volumes as mining recovers from wet weather.

The expansion to 13.4mtpa is progressing and the broker assumes it will reach over 13mtpa by FY25. Meanwhile, construction on the New Acland stage 3 re-start has commenced with pre-stripping.

Sell rating maintained. Target rises to $3.20 from $3.10.

This report was published on May 30, 2023.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: minus $1.59 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.64, suggesting upside of 17.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 132.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 13.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 145.8, implying annual growth of 23.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 16.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.0, implying annual growth of -19.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 13.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PDN    PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $0.67

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PDN)) as Buy (1) –

Media reports suggest the Namibian government has intentions of taking stakes in all mining and petroleum production companies. Canaccord Genuity believes this would require constitutional amendments in order to apply to existing permits and licences.

Consequently, the changes, if any, are unlikely to be retrospective and thus the sell-off in Paladin Energy appears overdone. Buy rating and $1.15 target price retained.

This report was published on May 30, 2023.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: $0.48
If PDN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.10, suggesting upside of 63.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 75.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAN    QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $6.68

Goldman Sachs rates ((QAN)) as Buy (1) –

Qantas Airways has reiterated FY24 EBIT margin targets with expectations for loyalty EBIT of $500-600m. Goldman Sachs estimates a group EBIT margin of 13%. Over the longer term the broker believes management has a sustainable earnings base to grow.

Domestic profitability has structurally improved, Qantas asserts, estimating it has 80% of the domestic industry profit pool with 66% capacity market share.

Market supply constraints in international are expected to persist until FY30 with demand outpacing supply. Goldman Sachs retains a Buy rating and $8.50 target.

This report was published on May 30, 2023.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $6.68 Difference: $1.62
If QAN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.61, suggesting upside of 13.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 98.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 99.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.5, implying annual growth of 7.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((QAN)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden observes the strategy briefing from Qantas Airways highlighted a number of mid-term ambitions that should help guide the market in considering the outlook to FY30.

The broker points out the targets will not be used to formulate management's performance scorecards or remuneration.

Additionally, the expected earnings uplift for freight and both the Jetstar domestic and international margin targets may be helpful but difficult to reconcile.

The broker updates capital expenditure forecasts for FY24, given the guidance of $3-3.2bn. Overweight rating and $7 target maintained.

This report was published on May 31, 2023.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.68 Difference: $0.32
If QAN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.61, suggesting upside of 13.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 94.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 97.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.5, implying annual growth of 7.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE    QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $14.62

Jarden rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

QBE Insurance has provided re-stated financials for 2022. Jarden is pleased the business has taken a pragmatic approach and preserved key historical performance metrics.

The impact of the re-statement is largely non-recurring with 2023 gross written premium growth and CLR guidance unchanged. Yet, with the pull forward of expected losses on unearned premium back into 2022 this could support stronger underwriting margins ahead.

As a result, the broker continues to believe the turnaround is on track and reiterates a Buy rating with a $19.65 target.

This report was published on May 30, 2023.

Target price is $19.65 Current Price is $14.62 Difference: $5.03
If QBE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.22, suggesting upside of 10.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 105.22 cents and EPS of 145.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 109.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 125.96 cents and EPS of 175.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.8, implying annual growth of 20.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 118.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RXL    ROX RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.39

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RXL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity has visited the Youanmi gold project in Western Australia. Rox Resources is undertaking works to upgrade the resource to a higher confidence category and deliver more favourable economic outcomes in a future definitive feasibility study that may include Paddy's Lode.

The company recently made a significant discovery at Paddy's Lode and has shifted its focus to this growth opportunity. Elsewhere, the hanging wall mineralisation at Midway has potential to add further ounces.

The broker retains a $0.60 target and a Speculative Buy rating.

This report was published on June 1, 2023.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.21
If RXL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TAH    TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $1.15

Goldman Sachs rates ((TAH)) as Sell (5) –

At the investor briefing, Tabcorp Holdings has provided more clarity on the utilisation of existing assets. No trading update or financial guidance was provided outside of confirming that capital expenditure is likely to be below $150m.

A key focus area was data-led actions. Goldman Sachs notes the company was under utilising the data at its disposal. Yet the broker continues to believe that a 5% digital market share growth in a mature and competitive market is hard to achieve.

Management expects the promotional environment will improve as the states improve the level playing field between the TAB and other corporate bookmakers. Sell rating maintained. Target is $0.84.

This report was published on June 2, 2023.

Target price is $0.84 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.16, suggesting upside of 0.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 57.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.7, implying annual growth of -98.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.2, implying annual growth of 13.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES    WESFARMERS LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $47.80

Goldman Sachs rates ((WES)) as Sell (5) –

Wesfarmers' strategy remains consistent with Goldman Sachs' expectations. The broker found the tone from management cautiously optimistic, given an increasingly challenged consumption environment.

Discussion also centred around technology/digital productivity in order to mitigate cost pressures. Management has noted FY23 net capital expenditure of $1.1-1.2bn, which the broker assesses is a highly efficient use of capital given the scrutiny on returns.

Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs considers the stock overvalued relative to the rest of its consumer coverage and reiterates a Sell rating. Target is raised to $44.00 from $43.40.

This report was published on May 30, 2023.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $47.80 Difference: minus $3.8 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $49.38, suggesting upside of 3.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 183.00 cents and EPS of 215.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 220.4, implying annual growth of 6.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 181.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 176.00 cents and EPS of 207.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 230.7, implying annual growth of 4.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 190.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((WES)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden believes Wesfarmers has a sound long-term strategy, with the additions of health and lithium leaving the business well-placed to take advantage of longer-term trends.

The broker acknowledges the outlook for near-term earnings is challenged amid falling ammonia prices, rising costs and a weaker macro backdrop. This is reflected in forecasts, although Jarden acknowledges there is still a risk to expectations for Bunnings into FY24.

 A preference for grocery stocks in the consumer space is retained. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $45 from $46.

This report was published on May 30, 2023.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $47.80 Difference: minus $2.8 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $49.38, suggesting upside of 3.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 175.00 cents and EPS of 207.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 220.4, implying annual growth of 6.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 181.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 174.00 cents and EPS of 204.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 230.7, implying annual growth of 4.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 190.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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