Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jun 08, 2023

This story features ADAIRS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ADH

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ADH   ALL   ASX   BBN   BLD   CAJ   COE   EBO   HVN   IDX   JBH   MIN   MTS   PMV   PRN   STO   SUL   TPW   WDS   WEB  

ADH    ADAIRS LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $1.42

Jarden rates ((ADH)) as Overweight (2) –

Adairs has reduced earnings guidance by -15% at the mid point as trading softened throughout April and into May. Management has pointed to gross margins being in line with expectations and higher than the prior corresponding second half.

Jarden envisages growing risks into FY24 because of increased promotional intensity and a falling Australian dollar.

While Adairs is likely to try and cut costs in a slowing environment, the decision on wages by the Fair Work Commission, coupled with rising energy and rent costs, is likely to create significant headwinds.

Yet Jarden maintains an Overweight rating on valuation grounds while reducing the target to $2.05 from $3.00.

This report was published on June 2, 2023.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: $0.63
If ADH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.72, suggesting upside of 23.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 24.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.2, implying annual growth of -15.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 24.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of -13.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALL    ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $37.97

Goldman Sachs rates ((ALL)) as Buy (1) –

Aristocrat Leisure offers the most diversifed growth opportunity within the gaming segment, Goldman Sachs asserts, amid strength in land-based market and significant opportunities in iGaming.

The broker considers the market is overly bearish on the longer-term outlook for mobile gaming. Forecasts imply 9.8% net profit growth over FY22-25 for the stock which currently trades at around 17x PE on an FY24 basis.

Buy reiterated. Target is $46.70.

This report was published on June 5, 2023.

Target price is $46.70 Current Price is $37.97 Difference: $8.73
If ALL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $44.00, suggesting upside of 16.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 207.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 194.2, implying annual growth of 35.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 222.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 208.0, implying annual growth of 7.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX    ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $61.37

Jarden rates ((ASX)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Jarden observes ASX will now need to expand its capacity to progress its technology modernisation. This will require elevated costs in FY24 amid greater flexibility on the balance sheet and results in ASX trimming its dividend policy and issuing debt.

While Jarden envisages upside to returns if the market backdrop improves and futures volumes recover strongly, there is lingering cost uncertainty into FY25 and limited repricing scope as the company rebuilds its reputation.

As there are few near-term catalysts outside of moderate value appeal, the broker lowers its rating to Neutral from Overweight. Target falls to $64.85 from $72.95.

This report was published on June 6, 2023.

Target price is $64.85 Current Price is $61.37 Difference: $3.48
If ASX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $65.47, suggesting upside of 6.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 230.60 cents and EPS of 256.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 244.9, implying annual growth of -6.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 220.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 225.00 cents and EPS of 264.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 260.3, implying annual growth of 6.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 227.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BBN    BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $1.36

Wilsons rates ((BBN)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons puts the earnings implications for Baby Bunting under review after the disappointing trading update. The company will report FY23 results on August 11.

The broker notes the commentary is broadly similar to other listed retailers which have provided updates in recent weeks and signal consumer demand has been softening over recent months.

Sales appear to have been negatively affected by a poor outcome in a key promotional period during May and the company remains concerned this could continue into the important June trading period.

Baby Bunting has advised there is limited exposure to non-seasonal stock but commentary around lower gross margin suggests to Wilsons the current levels of promotion/discounting are not stimulating enough demand.

Wilsons retains an Overweight rating and $2.70 target.

This report was published on June 6, 2023.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $1.335
If BBN meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 98% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.56, suggesting upside of 16.4%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.3, implying annual growth of -30.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 12.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLD    BORAL LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $4.18

Goldman Sachs rates ((BLD)) as Neutral (3) –

Boral has indicated  the second half EBIT run rate was ahead of the first, having previously guided to the second half being "in line". While volume trends for the year to date are up on FY22 the rate of external volume growth is slowing in the fourth quarter.

Management is witnessing price traction nationally across all product lines and regions.

There was no mention of the long-term target of 10-12% EBIT margin in the update, and Goldman Sachs expects Boral Australia's margin will return to 9.3% and the group margin to 9.0% by FY26. Neutral rating and $4 target maintained.

This report was published on June 7, 2023.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.49, suggesting downside of -14.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of 52.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAJ    CAPITOL HEALTH LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.27

Goldman Sachs rates ((CAJ)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs initiates coverage on Capitol Health with a Buy rating and $0.33 target. The company is the sixth largest player in a structurally attractive industry, being a low-cost community-based provider of radiology which underpins cash flows that are backed 77% by government.

The broker forecasts three-year EBITDA growth of 12%. Goldman Sachs notes Medicare data suggests a sequential recovery is underway in the healthcare industry with margins likely to bottom in FY23 and recover as volumes return.

This report was published on June 6, 2023.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.06
If CAJ meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.35, suggesting upside of 24.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.0, implying annual growth of -3.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.5, implying annual growth of 50.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE    COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.14

Jarden rates ((COE)) as Overweight (2) –

Cooper Energy has revised its FY23 underlying EBITDAX guidance downwards by -13% at the mid point which is -7-8% below Jarden's prior estimates. The downgrade stems from lower production, lower spot gas sales volumes and spot gas prices.

Jarden was not completely surprised by the downgrade as production was already tracking towards the lower end of prior guidance.

The broker retains an Overweight rating and expects improving average production rates will lead to increased confidence that higher output levels can be maintained. Target edges down to $0.24 from $0.25.

This report was published on June 6, 2023.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.105
If COE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.20, suggesting upside of 40.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 70.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.2, implying annual growth of 500.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EBO    EBOS GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $32.27

Jarden rates ((EBO)) as Underweight (4) –

Ebos Group has updated on the loss of the contract to supply Chemist Warehouse with PBS medicines from June 30, 2024. Jarden removes -$2.2bn from revenue within the company's community pharmacy division from FY25.

An Underweight rating is maintained, given limited value upside on the reset earnings and the changed nature of the investment case which is without the scale benefits of Chemist Warehouse. Target is lowered to NZ$35.70 from NZ$41.00.

This report was published on June 6, 2023.

Current Price is $32.27. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $35.36, suggesting upside of 10.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 98.00 cents and EPS of 145.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.2, implying annual growth of 19.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 94.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 111.00 cents and EPS of 158.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.2, implying annual growth of 11.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 103.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HVN    HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $3.32

Goldman Sachs rates ((HVN)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) –

Goldman Sachs updates its household final consumption expenditure (HFCE) model to account for forecasts on household savings and rolls forward to FY23-25. The broker now forecasts total HFCE growth of 4.9%.

Against a softening backdrop, the broker notes category growth and company quality divergence, and reviews its outlook for forward domestic discretionary retailers against sales, margins and balance sheet levers.

In the case of Harvey Norman, Goldman Sachs downgrades to Neutral from Buy on expectations of market share losses. The company's key growth area is expansion of owned stores which signals higher inventory and capital expenditure. Target is reduced to $3.40 from $4.70.

This report was published on June 7, 2023.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: $0.08
If HVN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 17.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.1, implying annual growth of -33.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.7, implying annual growth of -21.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IDX    INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $3.45

Goldman Sachs rates ((IDX)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs believes the market under-appreciates the recovery in margins likely to be experienced by Integral Diagnostics amid price tailwinds and cost discipline.

The broker forecasts EBITDA margins of 20% in FY23, recovering to 25% by FY26 and three-year EBITDA growth of 16%. Integral Diagnostics is currently the cheapest stock across the broker's sector coverage on a growth-adjusted basis.

Buy rating is reiterated. Target rises to $3.70 from $3.30.

This report was published on June 6, 2023.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.25
If IDX meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.29, suggesting downside of -4.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.1, implying annual growth of 16.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.90 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of 63.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH    JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $42.96

Goldman Sachs rates ((JBH)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs updates its household final consumption expenditure (HFCE) model to account for forecasts on household savings and rolls forward to FY23-25. The broker now forecasts total HFCE growth of 4.9%.

Against a softening backdrop, the broker notes category growth and company quality divergence, and reviews its outlook for forward domestic discretionary retailers against sales, margins and balance sheet levers.

Goldman Sachs reiterates a Neutral rating for JB Hi-Fi given anticipated resilience in the short term, although structural risk of market share losses to online players exists for the longer term. Target edges down to $44.20 from $44.50.

This report was published on June 7, 2023.

Target price is $44.20 Current Price is $42.96 Difference: $1.24
If JBH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $45.78, suggesting upside of 7.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 351.00 cents and EPS of 445.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 459.8, implying annual growth of -4.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 301.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 225.00 cents and EPS of 344.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 343.1, implying annual growth of -25.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 224.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN    MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $69.35

Jarden rates ((MIN)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden observes spot lithium hydroxide has rallied to US$45,000/t and lithium carbonate to US$42,000/t. Yet tolling margins remain negative.

Thus, the broker calculates the tolling of Mount Marion SC is likely to cause Mineral Resources to lose -$225m  in FY23 and a further -$100m in FY24 before the onerous contract expires at the end of 2023.

In the broker's opinion, the company would be better off simply selling Mount Marion SC rather than tolling. The tolling of Wodgina SC further erodes profitability compared with simply selling the concentrate.

Jarden transfers coverage to another analyst and retains an Underweight rating. Target is reduced to $58.95 from $60.17.

This report was published on June 5, 2023.

Target price is $58.95 Current Price is $69.35 Difference: minus $10.4 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $89.71, suggesting upside of 30.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 270.00 cents and EPS of 283.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 445.0, implying annual growth of 140.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 253.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 300.00 cents and EPS of 431.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 912.8, implying annual growth of 105.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 346.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS    METCASH LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $3.49

Goldman Sachs rates ((MTS)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) –

Since downgrading Metcash to Sell in March, because of market share losses to the majors as well as softness in hardware, Goldman Sachs notes the stock has fallen -14%.

Given the recent resilience in the supermarket sector, the broker increases forecast IGA like-for-like sales in the second half to growth of 3.4%, despite continuing to hold the view of market share losses. Goldman Sachs upgrades to Neutral from Sell and maintains a $3.50 target.

This report was published on June 7, 2023.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.01
If MTS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 18.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.1, implying annual growth of 24.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.5, implying annual growth of -1.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMV    PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $21.83

Goldman Sachs rates ((PMV)) as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) –

Goldman Sachs updates its household final consumption expenditure (HFCE) model to account for forecasts on household savings and rolls forward to FY23-25. The broker now forecasts total HFCE growth of 4.9%.

Against a softening backdrop, the broker notes category growth and company quality divergence, and reviews its outlook for forward domestic discretionary retailers against sales, margins and balance sheet levers.

Apparel brands growth remains increasingly challenged amid softness post the pandemic and rising competition from international entrants.

As a result Premier Investments is downgraded to Sell from Neutral and the target lowered to $21.00 from $25.30.

This report was published on June 7, 2023.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $21.83 Difference: minus $0.83 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.92, suggesting upside of 27.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 167.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.1, implying annual growth of -7.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 102.00 cents and EPS of 138.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 151.2, implying annual growth of -9.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 109.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PRN    PERENTI LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $1.18

Moelis rates ((PRN)) as Buy (1) –

Perenti has upgraded guidance for FY23 EBITA to $260-265m. The FY24 targets are for growth which implies continued margin expansion at the EBITA line. Moelis also highlights the FY25 target of $3bn revenue at 10% margin implies $300m in EBITA.

The broker welcomes the articulation of the company's strategy surrounding the digital mining product suite, idoba. The scope for growth is via North American hard rock underground mining. Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $1.50 from $1.40.

This report was published on June 6, 2023.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.32
If PRN meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.24.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.86.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO    SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $7.39

Jarden rates ((STO)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden reviews its investment thesis on Santos and Woodside Energy ((WDS)). While expecting a sharp rebound in spot oil in the second half of 2023 the broker asserts investors should brace for material reductions in earnings and distribution expectations.

Jarden concludes that, while arguably fully valued, Woodside is a lower risk, higher reward investment than Santos. Nevertheless, there is more upside in Santos than in Woodside and the former remains the preferred large cap energy exposure.

The Overweight rating and $7.85 target are retained.

This report was published on June 5, 2023.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $7.39 Difference: $0.46
If STO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.35, suggesting upside of 24.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 37.67 cents and EPS of 65.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.59 cents and EPS of 56.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.9, implying annual growth of -14.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUL    SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $11.32

Goldman Sachs rates ((SUL)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs updates its household final consumption expenditure (HFCE) model to account for forecasts on household savings and rolls forward to FY23-25. The broker now forecasts total HFCE growth of 4.9%.

Against a softening backdrop, the broker notes category growth and company quality divergence, and reviews its outlook for forward domestic discretionary retailers against sales, margins and balance sheet levers.

Goldman Sachs reiterates a Buy rating for Super Retail amid market share gains and a relatively resilient category.

The company's strong loyalty scheme, which is around 70% of total sales, is coming from members across for core brands and should drive annual expenditure. Target is reduced to $13.60 from $14.80.

This report was published on June 7, 2023.

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $11.32 Difference: $2.28
If SUL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.05, suggesting upside of 17.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 71.40 cents and EPS of 113.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 114.9, implying annual growth of 7.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 62.80 cents and EPS of 96.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.5, implying annual growth of -17.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPW    TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $4.87

Goldman Sachs rates ((TPW)) as Buy (1) –

The latest web traffic data provides incremental confidence for Goldman Sachs that Temple & Webster is enjoying an accelerating revenue growth trend.

The data shows evidence that the company is taking share with a step up in conversion consistent with increased promotional intensity.

The broker expects revenue growth through the first half of FY24 will be in the low teens before accelerating to the high teens as the macro outlook improves in 2024.

Goldman Sachs retains a Buy rating with a $6.40 target.

This report was published on June 6, 2023.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: $1.53
If TPW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.73, suggesting downside of -3.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 60.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.1, implying annual growth of -48.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 96.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 45.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 66.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WDS    WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $34.40

Jarden rates ((WDS)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden reviews its investment thesis on Woodside Energy and Santos ((STO)). While expecting a sharp rebound in spot oil in the second half of 2023 the broker asserts investors should brace for material reductions in earnings and distribution expectations.

Jarden concludes that, while arguably fully valued, Woodside is a lower risk, higher reward investment than Santos. Nevertheless, there is more upside in Santos than in Woodside and the former remains the preferred large cap energy exposure. Neutral rating and  $34.15 target maintained.

This report was published on June 6, 2023.

Target price is $34.15 Current Price is $34.40 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $36.68, suggesting upside of 5.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 169.09 cents and EPS of 213.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 270.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 182.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 186.89 cents and EPS of 236.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 278.0, implying annual growth of 3.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 190.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WEB    WEBJET LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $7.28

Jarden rates ((WEB)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

Jarden estimates WebBeds will become more than 85% of Webjet's EBITDA by FY26 and this should drive a re-rating of multiples.

The broker points out the WebBeds business is capital light and has high barriers to entry with scope for transaction values of more than $10bn in the long-term.

Jarden is not fazed by the fact the company pulled its margin target at the FY23 results, believing the move provides flexibility to accelerate growth, particularly in the US where there is low penetration.

The broker expects travel will continue outperforming as confidence post FY24 builds amid undemanding sector valuations. Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral and the target is steady at $8.15.

This report was published on June 6, 2023.

Target price is $8.15 Current Price is $7.28 Difference: $0.87
If WEB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.69, suggesting upside of 20.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 29.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.9, implying annual growth of 765.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 37.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.4, implying annual growth of 28.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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