Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jan 18, 2024

This story features ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALK

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALK   ASX   BXB   CXO   DTL (2)   HUB (2)   IAG   IEL   KMD   MFG   MIN   MTS   MVF   PLS   PSQ   RIO   SUL   TLX  

ALK    ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.58

Moelis rates ((ALK)) as Buy (1) –

Second quarter gold production of 13.2koz for Alkane Resources was broadly in line with the 13.5koz forecast by Moelis, while costs (AISC) were bang on expectation.

Sales were a slight beat, providing a modest uplift in operating free cash flows, explains the analyst.

No material changes are made to the broker's projected earnings and cash flow, though the target falls to 95c from $1.05 on higher capex assumptions. 

While a Buy rating is maintained, Moelis notes a near-term risk the share price continues to trade sideways until cashflow again turns positive.

This report was published on January 17, 2024.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.365
If ALK meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.60.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX    ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $64.27

Jarden rates ((ASX)) as Neutral (3) –

As expectations of central bank cash rate cuts in 2024 grow,  the ASX has reported a third consecutive month of double-digit futures volume growth in December 2023, notes Jarden.

Negatives include ongoing subdued capital raisings, while on-market equity turnover declined by -10% on the previous corresponding period, explain the analysts.

The broker's target rises to $61.05 from $59 but the Neutral rating stays on limited valuation appeal.

This report was published on January 5, 2024.

Target price is $61.05 Current Price is $64.27 Difference: minus $3.22 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $61.03, suggesting downside of -5.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 214.20 cents and EPS of 252.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 248.8, implying annual growth of 51.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 214.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 224.90 cents and EPS of 264.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 253.5, implying annual growth of 1.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 216.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BXB    BRAMBLES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $13.99

Jarden rates ((BXB)) as Overweight (2) –

With Brambles warning of moderating pallet price growth over the course of the financial year in the first quarter, Jarden believes the subsequent reaction may have been overdone as the market tries to determine whether the company was implying contractual price decline or a slowing rate of pricing growth.

The broker believes structural changes, notably more rational competition and price adjustments to better reflect cost-to-serve dynamic. Jarden also notes wood pallet costs are declining, and at a steeper rate than pallet prices.

The Overweight rating and target price of $15.90 are retained. Jarden sees considerable risk/reward emerging for investors.

This report was published on January 16, 2024.

Target price is $15.90 Current Price is $13.99 Difference: $1.91
If BXB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.96, suggesting upside of 6.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 70.97 cents and EPS of 79.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 86.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.7, implying annual growth of 11.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CXO    CORE LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.20

Jarden rates ((CXO)) as Sell (5) –

Just prior to the close of 2023, Jarden lowered its target for Core Lithium to 20c from 32c following management's announced strategic review. The focus was on preserving asset value and controlling costs to limit the impacts of weaker realised prices.

The first move was to suspend capex (budget of $50m) for the BP33 underground development early works.

Depending on outcomes from the review, Jarden's revised assumptions see funding potentially becoming tight by mid-2025. The Sell rating was maintained.

This report was published on December 22, 2023.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If CXO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.25, suggesting upside of 20.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.2, implying annual growth of 370.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.6, implying annual growth of -81.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DTL    DATA#3 LIMITED.

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $8.84

Goldman Sachs rates ((DTL)) as Neutral (3) –

In a positive surprise for Goldman Sachs, Data#3 has upgraded 1H profit (PBT) guidance by around 9%. Prior guidance was only provided just over two months ago, following a 2H FY23 earnings miss.

Management explained the higher guidance was due to increased customer activity and substantially higher interest income, aided by changes to the company’s working capital and treasury management.

The analyst awaits further detail on other factors behind the upgrade at 1H results on February 15. In the meantime, a Neutral rating is maintained and the target rises by 9% to $8.30.

This report was published on January 17, 2024.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $8.84 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If DTL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting downside of -9.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of 16.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of 11.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((DTL)) as Overweight (1) –

With its first half tracking ahead of expectations amid both increased activity and substantially higher interest income, Data#3 has issued a guidance upgrade.

The company is now anticipating first half profits before tax of $30-$31m. At the mid-point, this is a 9% increase to the guidance provided at the annual general, and up 24% year-on-year.

As per Wilsons, given the lack of operational reason for the upgrade, there is little to interpret into meaningful insights. The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $9.60 from $9.09.

This report was published on January 17, 2024.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $8.84 Difference: $0.76
If DTL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting downside of -9.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.90 cents and EPS of 29.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of 16.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.90 cents and EPS of 33.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of 11.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB    HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $36.37

Moelis rates ((HUB)) as Hold (3) –

Following a December quarterly update by Hub24, Moelis increases its target to $38.93 from $36.88 due to stronger-than-expected funds under administration (FUA), driven largely by strong market movements.

There were platform net inflows of $4.5bn, a rise of 60.4% on the previous corresponding period, including $1.8bn from a large client transition portfolio, notes the analyst.

Such inflows are a positive, explains the broker, given the operating leverage platform businesses such as Hub24 exhibit. The Hold rating is maintained.

This report was published on January 17, 2024.

Target price is $38.93 Current Price is $36.37 Difference: $2.56
If HUB meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $38.50, suggesting upside of 5.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 42.60 cents and EPS of 85.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.4, implying annual growth of 72.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 55.80 cents and EPS of 111.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.2, implying annual growth of 26.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((HUB)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons has described another "impressive" quarterly flow update from Hub24, with net flows of $2.7bn a 4% beat to the broker's expectations, while funds under administration benefited from the December equity market rally.

Wilsons sees a clear path for Hub24 to achieve its targeted FY25 funds under administration of $92-100bn, given ongoing healthy flows. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $40.00 from $37.23.

This report was published on January 17, 2024.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $36.37 Difference: $3.63
If HUB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $38.50, suggesting upside of 5.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 41.50 cents and EPS of 90.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.4, implying annual growth of 72.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 122.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.2, implying annual growth of 26.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG    INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $5.69

Jarden rates ((IAG)) as Overweight (2) –

Despite a pull back in Australian yield curves in recent months, Jarden believes Insurance Australia Group remains on track to deliver a strong insurance trading ratio (ITR) margin of 15% into FY25.

This view follows a reinsurance (RI) update by management showing overall costs were in line with the group's expectations, and consistent with FY24 reported ITR margin guidance of 13.5-15.5%.

The Overweight rating and $6.15 target are unchanged.

This report was published on January 4, 2024.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: $0.46
If IAG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.96, suggesting upside of 4.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 36.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.8, implying annual growth of 5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 43.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.7, implying annual growth of 10.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IEL    IDP EDUCATION LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $20.99

Goldman Sachs rates ((IEL)) as Buy (1) –

IDP Education can achieve market share gains, even in a student placement market Goldman Sachs forecasts will decline in aggregate for FY25.

The broker believes much of the industry weakness will occur around lower quality students and institutions to which IDP Education has less exposure.

Despite these positives, the analyst suggests it's unlikely the company will completely avoid any negative impacts. Accordingly, earnings (EBIT) forecasts across FY24-26 are lowered by -1%, -6% and -8%, respectively, on lower estimates for IELTS and student placements.

The target falls to $27.60 from $29.65. Buy.

This report was published on January 17, 2024.

Target price is $27.60 Current Price is $20.99 Difference: $6.61
If IEL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.84, suggesting upside of 32.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 44.30 cents and EPS of 63.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.3, implying annual growth of 18.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 52.80 cents and EPS of 75.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.1, implying annual growth of 18.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KMD    KMD BRANDS LIMITED

Sports & Recreation – Overnight Price: $0.70

Jarden rates ((KMD)) as Buy (1) –

Prior to Christmas, Jarden updated research on KMD Brands after a disappointing holiday trading update. The target was reduced to NZ$1.00 from NZ$1.20 and the Buy rating was maintained.

Sales for Kathmandu were particularly challenged, falling by -22% over the period, while weakness in the wholesale channel negatively impacted both Oboz and Rip Curl.

The broker noted comparisons will become less challenging for Kathmandu from January, with potential for more normal wholesale channel dynamics in the 2H.

Positively, management commentary suggested to Jarden sales for Rip Curl in the direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel remain robust, which is supportive for ongoing brand health.

This report was published on December 20, 2023.

Current Price is $0.70. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $0.71, suggesting upside of 1.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.55 cents and EPS of 3.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.55 cents and EPS of 6.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.9, implying annual growth of 21.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MFG    MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $8.84

Jarden rates ((MFG)) as Neutral (3) –

Magellan Financial's December 2023 flows and funds under management (FUM) levels surprised Jarden and consensus to the upside.

The broker raises its EPS forecasts by 1-2% and lifts its target to $8.10 from $7.95, though the Neutral rating remains as the outlook for flows remains uncertain given no material performance improvement for the flagship fund.

Following the appointment of a new CEO, and a likely refreshed strategy, Jarden may reconsider its ratings view.

This report was published on January 5, 2024.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $8.84 Difference: minus $0.74 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.45, suggesting downside of -4.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 59.80 cents and EPS of 80.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.8, implying annual growth of -24.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 79.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.9, implying annual growth of -9.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN    MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $59.47

Jarden rates ((MIN)) as Sell (5) –

The emergence of potential governance concerns reinforces Jarden's conviction around its unchanged Sell rating for Mineral Resources. Deteriorating balance sheet metrics are also highlighted.

The Mineral Resources Managing Director emerged with a personal equity interest of 4.86% in recently listed junior lithium explorer Kali Metals ((KM1)). Two days into Kali's listed life, Mineral Resources then purchased (on market) an around 10% equity interest in Kali.

The broker acknowledges some investors may value this level of alignment in the founder-led business.

The $48.30 target price is maintained.

This report was published on January 11, 2024.

Target price is $48.30 Current Price is $59.47 Difference: minus $11.17 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $72.64, suggesting upside of 22.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 189.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 271.3, implying annual growth of 113.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 102.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 283.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 552.2, implying annual growth of 103.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 246.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS    METCASH LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $3.57

Jarden rates ((MTS)) as Overweight (2) –

Following the appointment of Richard Murray as CEO of Total Tools, Jarden highlights Hardware and Total Tools are a bigger opportunity than the market realises. Metcash is Australia's second largest hardware player, behind Bunnings.

The broker likes that Total Tools is the number one specialty tools player in Australia. It's also thought Richard Murray, using the old JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) playbook, could potentially find adjacencies and leverage scale as a category killer in the tools/trade space.

The analysts' forecasts are unchanged and the Overweight rating and $4.20 target are maintained. 

This report was published on January 8, 2024.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.63
If MTS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 12.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 29.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of 6.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 30.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.3, implying annual growth of -0.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MVF    MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $1.32

Wilsons rates ((MVF)) as Overweight (1) –

A bumper month for stimulated cycles should benefit Monash IVF, with Medicare data showing November contained the highest monthly volume of cycles since the pandemic IVF boom, up 16.1% year-on-year.

The company is set to acquire Fertility North for -$12m, an established practice expected to generate around $9m in revenue annually. Wilsons expects minimal impact on FY24, but the purchase underpins a target price lift.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.45 from $1.43. The stock remains the only Overweight recommendation in Wilsons' healthcare services coverage.

This report was published on January 17, 2024.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.125
If MVF meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.44, suggesting upside of 8.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.30 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 32.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 8.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 10.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS    PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $3.53

Jarden rates ((PLS)) as Buy (1) –

Back when Jarden released research on Pilbara Minerals in mid-December last year, the target price was reduced to $4.60 from $4.80 after incorporating lower lithium price forecasts for FY24-FY25. The Buy rating was retained.

At the time, the broker highlighted the Tier-1 features at Pilgangoora, including the vast scale and long life, position on the cost curve, jurisdiction, metallurgy and recoveries.

The analysts also highlighted Pilbara Minerals is in the privileged position of controlling its own destiny, with a combination of 100% equity ownership and a balance sheet capable of funding further growth.

This report was published on December 19, 2023.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.53 Difference: $1.07
If PLS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.85, suggesting upside of 9.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 18.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of -70.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 16.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of -20.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PSQ    PACIFIC SMILES GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $1.44

Wilsons rates ((PSQ)) as Underweight (5) –

Wilsons holds its rating on Pacific Smiles despite the stock's re-rate in recent weeks. The broker explains the re-rate was a response to a non-binding $1.40 per share bid for the company from Genesis Capital.

The bid was rejected by the Pacific Smiles board, describing the offer as undervaluing the company. With the stock trading ahead of the bid price, the broker notes potential for higher bids. 

The Underweight rating and target price of 88 cents are retained.

This report was published on January 17, 2024.

Target price is $0.88 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: minus $0.56 (current price is over target).
If PSQ meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 2.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 57.60.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 3.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.14.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO    RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $126.54

Goldman Sachs rates ((RIO)) as Buy (1) –

Rio Tinto's 4Q operating results were broadly in line with expectations held by Goldman Sachs. Full year Pilbara shipments were 332mt compared to management's guidance toward the top end of the 320-335mt range.

Regarding copper production, lower head grades at Escondida and Oyu Tolgoi outweighed strong mill throughput rates at Escondida and Kennecott, resulting in a -6% miss against the broker's forecast and that of consensus.

Goldman's target falls by -1% to $140.50 and the Buy rating is maintained. FY23 results are due on February 21.

This report was published on January 17, 2024.

Target price is $140.50 Current Price is $126.54 Difference: $13.96
If RIO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $129.67, suggesting upside of 2.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 694.55 cents and EPS of 1088.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1095.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 631.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 694.55 cents and EPS of 1078.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1380.1, implying annual growth of 25.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 820.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUL    SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $15.90

Wilsons rates ((SUL)) as Market Weight (3) –

Super Retail's preliminary 1H results revealed revenue in line with forecasts by consensus and Wilsons. More positively, profit before tax (PBT) exceeded estimates of both by 16.8% and 21.2%, respectively, due to strong pricing power and cost control.

The broker remains cautious as the final ten weeks of 2023 showed a notable deterioration in the trajectory of like-for-like sales. The Market Weight rating is retained with the broker awaiting a more attractive entry point.

The price target rises to $14.80 from $12.70.

This report was published on January 16, 2024.

Target price is $14.80 Current Price is $15.90 Difference: minus $1.1 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $13.95, suggesting downside of -12.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 79.10 cents and EPS of 105.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.0, implying annual growth of -12.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 82.40 cents and EPS of 110.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.0, implying annual growth of 2.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLX    TELIX PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $11.23

Wilsons rates ((TLX)) as Overweight (1) –

A solid December quarter for Telix Pharmaceuticals despite the entrance of an an unlisted competitor to the market. Telix Pharmaceuticals reported $148.1m in global sales for ILLUCCIX, a 3% beat to Wilsons' expectations.

The broker estimates new entrant Blue Earth's POSLUMA treatment made US$16m in sales, equating ot 5% of the market. Market share for ILLUCCIX remained stable at 28%, while Lantheus' PYLARIFY slipped to 68%.

Wilsons expects the year ahead for Telix Pharmaceuticals to be shaped by the diversification of its PET/CT business, adding ZIRCAIX and PIXCLARA imaging agents for renal and brain imaging respectively.

It also expects therapeutic developments, particularly with the company's prostate cancer treatment TLX591 for mCRPC.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $12.25 from $11.95.

This report was published on January 17, 2024.

Target price is $12.25 Current Price is $11.23 Difference: $1.02
If TLX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 83.81.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.54.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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