Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jun 24, 2024

This story features BEACH ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BPT

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

BPT   DTL   DUG   EMN   HLI   MAQ   MRM   NXT   QBE   RFF (2)   TWE   WA1  

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.50

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BPT)) as Sell (5) –

Canaccord Genuity analysts maintain a Sell rating for Beach Energy while lowering their price target to $1.50 from $1.56.

The broker highlights the company’s strategy update focused on cost reductions and margin improvement, but also notes FY25 guidance was softer than expected.

The recent subsurface assessment resulted in a -19mnboe decrease in net reserves, contributing to a downgrade of production forecasts for FY24 to 18.0mboe and FY25 to 20.8mboe.

EPS forecasts have received the chainsaw treatment. The broker remains cautious due to ongoing reserve downgrades and potential risks associated with abandonment liabilities.

This report was published on June 19, 2024.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0
If BPT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting upside of 19.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 13.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of -11.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 13.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 36.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DTL    DATA#3 LIMITED.

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $8.32

Wilsons rates ((DTL)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons conducts a deep dive into digital infrastructure, including the “order of magnitude” of growth that cloud computing is generating in the Australian economy, which is expected to be significantly enhanced with GenAi.

The analyst stresses the cloud has been “great” but GenAi will make it “bigger and better” with the installed base having the potential to grow three times what it currently is to 38GWs from 13GWs.

Wilsons views the Data#3 business model, which partners with major hyperscalers like Microsoft to manage and develop complex IT systems, as well positioned to benefit from GenAi opportunities, including the recent Microsoft Office 365 Co-Pilot ‘Early Access’ program.

The Overweight rating and $9.12 target price are retained.

This report was published on June 21, 2024.

Target price is $9.12 Current Price is $8.32 Difference: $0.8
If DTL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.13, suggesting downside of -2.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.10 cents and EPS of 28.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of 16.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.80 cents and EPS of 31.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.2, implying annual growth of 7.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DUG    DUG TECHNOLOGY LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $2.63

Wilsons rates ((DUG)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons conducts a deep dive into digital infrastructure, including the “order of magnitude” of growth that cloud computing is generating in the Australian economy, which is expected to be significantly enhanced with GenAi.

The analyst stresses the cloud has been “great” but GenAi will make it “bigger and better” with the installed base having the potential to grow three times what it currently is to 38GWs from 13GWs.

While Dug Technology’s primary business is in the global oil and gas industry, the analyst at Wilsons points to the potential for the company’s liquid immersion business to be expanded into the cooling systems for data centres.

Overweight rating. Target price of $3.58.

This report was published on June 21, 2024.

Target price is $3.58 Current Price is $2.63 Difference: $0.95
If DUG meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 90.69.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 52.60.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EMN    EURO MANGANESE INC

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.07

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EMN)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity analysts retain a Speculative Buy rating alongside a price target of $1.15 for Euro Manganese.

The broker highlights the completion of the commissioning of the high-purity manganese demonstration plant at the Chvaletice Manganese Project in the Czech Republic.

As per the broker, the demonstration plant has achieved consistent operation and produced on-spec products, allowing Euro Manganese to provide bulk samples to prospective customers.

Financial forecasts remain unchanged, with the analysts suggesting the focus now shifts towards optimising the plant and progressing debt financing from the European Investment Bank.

Canaccord Genuity views the commissioning as a significant milestone towards the development of a commercial plant.

This report was published on June 19, 2024.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $1.082
If EMN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 1591% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLI    HELIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $4.08

Goldman Sachs rates ((HLI)) as Neutral (3) –

Helia Group has provided lenders mortgage insurance (LMI) services to CommBank ((CBA)) for more than 50 years, notes Goldman Sachs, and has now been advised the bank will issue a Request for Proposal (RFP) for future business.

This future business will incorporate CommBank’s total LMI requirements, including Bankwest.

The analysts forecast a valuation impact of between -5-20% should the contract be lost. A very limited near-term impact on Helia’s earnings is expected, as the company will continue to earn gross written premium (GWP) from the existing contract until expiry on December 31, 2025.

Neutral rating and $4.53 target unchanged.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $4.53 Current Price is $4.08 Difference: $0.45
If HLI meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.58.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.29.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAQ    MACQUARIE TECHNOLOGY GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $88.82

Wilsons rates ((MAQ)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons conducts a deep dive into digital infrastructure, including the “order of magnitude” of growth cloud computing is generating in the Australian economy, which is expected to be significantly enhanced with GenAi.

The analyst stresses the cloud has been “great” but GenAi will make it “bigger and better” with the installed base having the potential to grow three times what it currently is to 38GWs from 13GWs.

Macquarie Technology is viewed as the second most preferred stock for GenAi data centre growth, after NextDC ((NXT)).

The analyst is positive on the location and quality of the company’s asset and believes its further development is attractive to global companies, enterprises and governments.

The Overweight rating and target price of $81.65 are retained.

This report was published on June 19, 2024.

Target price is $81.65 Current Price is $88.82 Difference: minus $7.17 (current price is over target).
If MAQ meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 149.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.33.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 120.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 73.96.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MRM    MMA OFFSHORE LIMITED

Energy Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $2.62

Moelis rates ((MRM)) as Hold (3) –

MMA Offshore reported a 2H24 earnings update and upgraded expectations for the second half, Moelis observes.

Management increased FY24 earnings guidance, with EBITDA of $146-149m and earnings before interest and tax of $96-99m, up 6% and 10% respectively from prior guidance, the analysis highlights.

Moelis points to positive project completions and negotiated payments as key drivers for improved performance and revises forecasts with FY24 EPS estimate up 26.5% and FY25 up 27.8%

The target price is raised to $2.70 from $2.60, in line with the revised bid price from Cyan MMA Holdings. Hold rating unchanged.

This report was published on June 19, 2024.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.08
If MRM meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting upside of 5.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.80 cents and EPS of 23.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of -36.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.80 cents and EPS of 27.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of 14.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXT    NEXTDC LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $17.67

Wilsons rates ((NXT)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons conducts a deep dive into digital infrastructure, including the “order of magnitude” of growth that cloud computing is generating in the Australian economy, which is expected to be significantly enhanced with GenAi.

The analyst stresses the cloud has been “great” but GenAi will make it “bigger and better” with the installed base having the potential to grow three times what it currently is to 38GWs from 13GWs.

NextDC is viewed as the core data centre company in Australia, and perceived as the highest quality operator, with recent capital raising boosting the balance sheet to $1.3bn in available funds.

Overweight rating and $20.07 target price retained.

This report was published on June 19, 2024.

Target price is $20.07 Current Price is $17.67 Difference: $2.4
If NXT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.81, suggesting upside of 6.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 139.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 22.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 77.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -11.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE    QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $18.05

Jarden rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

The QBE Insurance decision to exit the North America mid-market business following a strategic review is considered a positive move by Jarden, with the analyst highlighting civil unrest claims from New Caledonia have tempered potential upside risks to FY24 earnings,

The company’s return on equity is forecast to improve post the US exit and will free up around $200m of regulatory capital, the analyst notes.

QBE Insurance also provided a 1H24 trading update which resulted in adjustments to Jarden’s earnings estimates. FY24 EPS is trimmed -2.7% and FY25 by -1.8%.

Buy rating retained and the price target is cut to $21.20 from $21.50.

This report was published on June 19, 2024.

Target price is $21.20 Current Price is $18.05 Difference: $3.15
If QBE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.80, suggesting upside of 4.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 93.00 cents and EPS of 185.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 178.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 96.00 cents and EPS of 191.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 182.1, implying annual growth of 2.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RFF    RURAL FUNDS GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.07

Moelis rates ((RFF)) as Buy (1) –

Rural Funds announced the sale of a -50% interest in the Mayneland and Bamba Plains properties for  around $39m, observes Moelis.

The transaction includes a 10-year CPI linked lease agreement.

Rural Funds is retained as the farm manager, with the lease expected to yield between 5%-6%.

The analyst’s forecasts are tweaked by -0.8% for FY24 and -1.3% for FY25.

Buy rating and $2.39 target unchanged,

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $2.39 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $0.32
If RFF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.70 cents and EPS of 11.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.65.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.80 cents and EPS of 11.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.69.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((RFF)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons observes Rural Funds has entered into an agreement to lease two cropping properties, Mayneland and Baamba Plains, for 10 years and sell a -50% interest in these properties for $39m.

This transaction is expected to reduce the group’s gearing from 36% to 35% and decrease exposure to operating earnings, the analyst notes.

The lease terms include CPI annual indexation and a profit share mechanism.

Wilsons is reviewing earnings forecasts and retains a $2.49 target price and Overweight rating.

This report was published on June 24, 2024.

Target price is $2.49 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $0.42
If RFF meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.70 cents and EPS of 11.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.48.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 11.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.16.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE    TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $12.63

Goldman Sachs rates ((TWE)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs highlights  strategic growth driven by Penfolds’ global expansion and recent acquisitions like Frank Family Vineyards and DAOU are a positive for Treasury Wine Estates, as discussed at the company’s recent market update.

Although the share price reaction was subdued, the broker believes the company is putting in place around 15% compound average growth in earnings before interest and tax through to FY27 and adjusts the price target accordingly.

There are no changes to the broker’s earnings forecasts. Target price is lifted to $15.20 from $13.40 and a Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $15.20 Current Price is $12.63 Difference: $2.57
If TWE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.78, suggesting upside of 9.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.3, implying annual growth of 52.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.1, implying annual growth of 18.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WA1    WA1 RESOURCES LIMITED

Industrial Metals – Overnight Price: $17.27

Canaccord Genuity rates ((WA1)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity analysts maintain a Speculative Buy rating for WA1 Resources with a price target of $27.50.

The broker highlights positive initial metallurgical testwork results from the Luni deposit, showing high-grade concentrates with excellent recoveries.

The analysts believe findings support the potential for a conventional process, which could save time and money.

Financial forecasts remain unchanged, with further testwork planned to optimise beneficiation steps and assess variability across the deposit. The broker views the results as a decisive step towards proving the world-class status of the Luni deposit.

This report was published on June 19, 2024.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $17.27 Difference: $10.23
If WA1 meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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