Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jul 04, 2024

This story features AUTOSPORTS GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ASG

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ASG   ASX   BKT   HSN   IAG (2)   MAY   MYX   NAB   NXD   PXA   RHC   SFX   SHA   SLC   TNE   VNT   WTC   XRO  

ASG    AUTOSPORTS GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $2.05

Jarden rates ((ASG)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden points out industry feedback and data up to May 24 this year have been mixed as luxury and large vehicles have underperformed the broader new car sales market.

While the broker sees risk to luxury new car margins, given a recent deterioration in used car sales/prices, margins for luxury are expected to be more resilient than those for the broader market.

The Overweight rating is maintained. The target is reduced to $3.20 from $3.25.

This report was published on July 1, 2024.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $1.15
If ASG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 47.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.10 cents and EPS of 33.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.4, implying annual growth of 8.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.70 cents and EPS of 32.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of -13.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX    ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $60.74

Jarden rates ((ASX)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden states the 2H24 preliminary average futures trading volume growth has come in at around 13% based on the 18% growth in June, 44% in April, with 28% in May. This compares with consensus at 7% and the broker at 10%.

However, equity turnover was down -4% in June, leading to a -1.5% contraction in 2H24, below consensus of -0.5%.

ASX cost growth is expected to outpace revenue growth in the future, limiting EPS growth to 4% compound growth through to FY26, according to the analyst’s expectations.

The broker believes the company’s earnings remain at risk (potentially) due to lower trading volumes, problems with the CHESS replacement, and higher investment and operating costs. 

Neutral rating with $61.10 target price unchanged.

This report was published on July 1, 2024.

Target price is $61.10 Current Price is $60.74 Difference: $0.36
If ASX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $61.34, suggesting upside of 0.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 211.00 cents and EPS of 248.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 245.8, implying annual growth of 50.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 209.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 219.50 cents and EPS of 258.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 252.2, implying annual growth of 2.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 215.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKT    BLACK ROCK MINING LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.06

Petra Capital rates ((BKT)) as Buy (1) –

Black Rock Mining has finalised offtake agreements for 15ktpa each with Muhui International Trade and Qingdao Yujinxi New Material.

Petra Capital views the next important milestone is the formal approval of POSCO’s US$50m funding support, expected within the next few months.

Buy rating retained and the target lifted to 17c from 15c.

This report was published on June 28, 2024.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.111
If BKT meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 188% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.83.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HSN    HANSEN TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $4.40

Goldman Sachs rates ((HSN)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs highlights the 7-year renewal and upgrade contract with SSE Plc, a European utility operating in the UK and Ireland by Hansen Technologies and it is viewed slightly positive but not significantly material to the company’s outlook.

The project will upgrade the Customer Information System (CIS) platform, including smart meter data management and flexible pricing with a start date at the beginning of FY25.

Goldman Sachs expects recurring revenue increase of $2.8m p.a. upon completion.

Neutral rating and $4.85 target unchanged.

This report was published on July 1, 2024.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: $0.45
If HSN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.58, suggesting upside of 47.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.7, implying annual growth of 10.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG    INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $7.01

Goldman Sachs rates ((IAG)) as Neutral (3) –

Better-than-expected peril outcomes have underpinned Insurance Australia Group’s  FY24 update for margins to the upper end guidance.

Goldman Sachs highlights the net natural peril claim cost estimate has been reduced to -$715m from -$909m, resulting in a net benefit of $194m.

The analyst lfts EPS estimates by 1c for FY24 and 2c for FY25, Neutral rating and the target price is raised to $6.72.

This report was published on July 1, 2024.

Target price is $6.72 Current Price is $7.01 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.08, suggesting upside of 1.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.4, implying annual growth of 7.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.2, implying annual growth of 7.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((IAG)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) –

Insurance Australia Group has announced two significant new reinsurance covers, in an attempt to deliver a higher return on equity (ROE) metric with greater downside protection, explains Jarden.

Underwriting profits from above-budget CAT costs and prior year reserve top-ups have eroded around -25% of underlying insurance trading ratio (ITR) profits over the past five years, points out the broker.

The broker’s rating is downgraded to Overweight from Buy on valuation, but the target rises to $7.35 from $6.80 after incorporating a lower weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and a higher PE relative multiple.

This report was published on July 1, 2024.

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $7.01 Difference: $0.34
If IAG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.08, suggesting upside of 1.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 37.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.4, implying annual growth of 7.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 40.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.2, implying annual growth of 7.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAY    MELBANA ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.03

Petra Capital rates ((MAY)) as Buy (1) –

Contaminated oil flow tests at the Alameda and Marti reservoirs, which are part of the Alameda-3 appraisal well are considered by Petra Capital as setbacks for Melbana Energy and resulted in the removal of both reservoirs from its forecasts.

Although the issue may be due to changes in drilling muds, the company is expected to shift to the Amistad reservoir, which has been successfully appraised and is targeted for production in late 2024 or early 2025.

Buy rating retained and the price target lowered to 8c from 19c.

This report was published on June 28, 2024.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.05
If MAY meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 167% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 30.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYX    MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $4.48

Wilsons rates ((MYX)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons remains positive on Mayne Pharma with the settlement of a shareholder class action, agreeing to a total settlement amount of -$38m.

The broker expects -$33.3m will be paid from cash reserves, with $4.7m funded by insurance.

The performance  of Nextstellis, which is on track for a positive contribution in 2H24, remains a highlight for the broker.

No change to the Overweight rating or $7.09 target price.

This report was published on July 2, 2024.

Target price is $7.09 Current Price is $4.48 Difference: $2.61
If MYX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 48.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.18.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 24.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.36.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB    NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $35.45

Goldman Sachs rates ((NAB)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs retains a Neutral rating and $34.04 target price on National Australia Bank making only some minor EPS forecast adjustments to reflect the bank’s funding mix more correctly.

EPS forecasts are tweaked by -0.1% for FY24 and 0.2% for FY25.

This report was published on July 1, 2024.

Target price is $34.04 Current Price is $35.45 Difference: minus $1.41 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $30.57, suggesting downside of -14.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 168.00 cents and EPS of 224.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 224.8, implying annual growth of -4.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 167.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 168.00 cents and EPS of 226.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.0, implying annual growth of 1.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXD    NEXTED GROUP LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $0.17

Petra Capital rates ((NXD)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Government visa restrictions will continue to potentially impact NextEd Group in the 2H2024 as Petra Capital highlights the 1H2024 recorded substantial declines in education visas, and vocational visa grants reaching their lowest levels since 2006.

Although the broker retains current earnings estimates, the visa issue remains a key risk for the revenue forecasts into the 2H2024 and the 1H2025.

Speculative Buy rating and 31c target price, which the analyst emphasises is dependent on a normalisation in visa conditions.

This report was published on June 28, 2024.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.14
If NXD meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.89.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PXA    PEXA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $13.33

Jarden rates ((PXA)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden assesses the NSW Productivity and Equality Commission’s recent report highlighting concerns over the competitiveness of the e-conveyancing market, suggesting Pexa Group earns ‘very high profits’ and that current price controls do not benefit consumers.

The pathways forward remain uncertain the analyst surmises, but increased competition could provide a more negative backdrop into the future, supporting the broker’s Neutral rating on the stock.

Target price remains at $13.65. No changes to the analyst’s earnings forecasts.

This report was published on July 1, 2024.

Target price is $13.65 Current Price is $13.33 Difference: $0.32
If PXA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.61, suggesting upside of 17.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 156.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 89.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of 118.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RHC    RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $46.42

Jarden rates ((RHC)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden notes Ramsay Health Care’s UK NHS volumes have increased by 7.3% in the four months to April compared to the previous corresponding period. 

Given a strong backlog at Ramsay’s UK hospitals, the analysts remain comfortable with a forecast for 2H constant currency UK revenue growth (ex-Elysium) of 11%.

The broker retains this comfort, despite last April being the first month in the UK where indexation stepped down to 0.6% from circa 3%.

The Neutral rating and $64.30 target are retained.

This report was published on July 1, 2024.

Target price is $64.30 Current Price is $46.42 Difference: $17.88
If RHC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $57.52, suggesting upside of 22.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 142.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 130.2, implying annual growth of 4.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 223.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 201.0, implying annual growth of 54.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 120.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFX    SHEFFIELD RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $0.35

Petra Capital rates ((SFX)) as Buy (1) –

The ramp-up at Sheffield Resources’ Thunderbird project continues with Petra Capital reporting concentrate production exceeded its forecasts due to higher mining rates, with overall sales coming in ahead of the analyst’s expectations.

The June quarter mining rates of 5% exceeded the broker’s forecasts with zircon and ilmenite production also surpassing expectations by 5% and 11%, respectively, and ilmenite sales significantly beating forecasts.

While Thunderbird is currently underperforming design metrics, the company is taking steps to address this, notes the broker, including the addition of more mining capacity.

Buy rating and 69c target unchanged.

This report was published on June 28, 2024.

Target price is $0.69 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.34
If SFX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 97% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.24.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.91.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHA    SHAPE AUSTRALIA CORPORATION LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $2.35

Moelis rates ((SHA)) as Buy (1) –

Shape Australia provided a strong trading update with record project wins of over $1bn in FY24 and a robust order backlog of $450m for FY25, the analyst at Moelis concludes.

Despite a -4% decline in FY24 revenue due to delayed project commencements, EBITDA is expected to expand 31% with net profit up 44% on the previous year.

Moelis believes the company’s growing capabilities in modular and defense sectors, along with an expanding geographic footprint and strong balance sheet, position it well for medium-term performance.

EPS earnings forecasts are raised by the analyst, 9% for FY24 and 6% for FY25.

The target price is accordingly raised to $2.64 from $2.12 with an unchanged Buy rating.

This report was published on July 1, 2024.

Target price is $2.64 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.29
If SHA meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.80 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.91.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 19.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.18.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLC    SUPERLOOP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $1.49

Wilsons rates ((SLC)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons believe the trading update highlighted the strong performance of Superloop’s consumer segment and its contract with Origin Energy ((ORG)).

The onboarding of new Origin broadband customers to its network began on 2nd July 2024, with existing customers transitioning from Aussie Broadband’s ((ABB)) network by October 2024.

Origin’s broadband customer base grew to over 150k by the end of May, adding 26k net new customers in five months, the broker highlights.

On balance, total consumer customers reached 322.9k, exceeding the analyst’s forecasts with management guidance for FY24 EBITDA at or above the top end of the $51-$53m range, and capital expenditure on track for -$25-$27m.

Overweight rating unchanged and the target is under review.

This report was published on July 2, 2024.

Target price is $1.61 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.125
If SLC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 30.94.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TNE    TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $18.50

Goldman Sachs rates ((TNE)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs retains an upbeat view on the growth outlook for TechnologyOne as the UK addressable market is two-to-three times larger than A&NZ with minimal current penetration.

The broker forecasts TechnologyOne can expand earnings before tax at a compound average growth rate of 17% between FY23 and FY26 with better outcomes if management achieve its growth targets.

The target price is lifted 5% to $19.70. Buy rating unchanged with no changes to earnings forecasts.

This report was published on July 1, 2024.

Target price is $19.70 Current Price is $18.50 Difference: $1.2
If TNE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.74, suggesting downside of -4.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 13.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.9, implying annual growth of 16.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VNT    VENTIA SERVICES GROUP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $3.95

Canaccord Genuity rates ((VNT)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity has initiated coverage on Ventia Services with a Buy rating and a price target of $4.40.

The company provides essential infrastructure services across Defence & Social Infrastructure, Infrastructure Services, Telecommunications, and Transport in A&NZ with the broker highlighting the outlook is supported by long-term contracts with government and blue-chip clients.

Canaccord Genuity believes Ventia Services is offering great exposure to structural tailwinds such as population growth and ageing infrastructure.

Buy rating. $4.40 target.

This report was published on July 1, 2024.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0.45
If VNT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 3.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.5, implying annual growth of 10.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.8, implying annual growth of 9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WTC    WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $97.30

Goldman Sachs rates ((WTC)) as Neutral (3) –

The organic revenue growth outlook for Cargowise, the key product for WiseTech Global, needs to accelerate to approximately 30% in FY25 if the company is to meet consensus expectations, according to Goldman Sachs.

Three product releases could boost revenue growth by 6%-7%, the broker estimates, as well as a boost from recent customer wins.

On balance, the analyst expects there is limited scope for an upside earnings surprise for FY25 and believes the stock is fully valued.

Neutral rating is unchanged and the target raised to $91 from $85.

This report was published on July 1, 2024.

Target price is $91.00 Current Price is $97.30 Difference: minus $6.3 (current price is over target).
If WTC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $94.49, suggesting downside of -3.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 120.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.5, implying annual growth of 25.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 120.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 109.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 89.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.1, implying annual growth of 38.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 86.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

XRO    XERO LIMITED

Accountancy – Overnight Price: $135.87

Goldman Sachs rates ((XRO)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs has returned from Xercon and June UK meetings with accountants, competitors, and experts with a 10% target price increase on Xero, as a result of the upbeat take on the company’s refreshed strategy and product focus.

The analyst highlights the positive reception for new products like tap-to-pay and JAX, tolerable price increases, unchanged competitive threats, and significant tailwinds from private equity-backed M&A in the UK accounting sector.

Goldman Sachs predicates its forecast revenue growth on improved market penetration and product enhancements.

Buy rating unchanged with a $180 target price, up from $164. 

This report was published on July 1, 2024.

Target price is $180.00 Current Price is $135.87 Difference: $44.13
If XRO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $152.27, suggesting upside of 12.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 154.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 87.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 95.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 201.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 67.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 189.0, implying annual growth of 32.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 72.0.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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