Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 09, 2024

This story features AUSTAL LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ASB

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ASB   AZJ   BKT   BXB   CVN   DDR   DGL   FCL   FEX   GDG   GMD   GTK   IPL   LOT (2)   MHJ   MTO   MYE   OBM   OML   ORA   PTM   REA   RHC   SFR   SMR   SNL   SVW   SYA   TPG   VIT   WES  

ASB    AUSTAL LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies – Overnight Price: $2.13

Petra Capital rates ((ASB)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital assesses Austal’s underlying FY24 performance was positive and points out the EBIT margin is already trending higher. Support division revenues and margin were higher, while US shipbuilding delivered a 2.9% margin on lower revenue.

A 424bps EBIT margin gain to 3.9% more than offset lower revenue and higher D&A and interest expenses, explains the broker.

Petra Capital reiterates a Buy rating and the target slips to $3.21 from $3.33.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $3.21 Current Price is $2.13 Difference: $1.08
If ASB meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 49.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.4, implying annual growth of 226.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 14.50 cents and EPS of 28.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 34.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZJ    AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $3.35

Jarden rates ((AZJ)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden deconstructs the market expectations for Aurizon Holdings from its 2021 strategy day when management set a baseline EBITDA growth rate for Bulk and OneRail.

Due to differences in earnings growth before and after interest/tax, the broker believes consensus earnings have been too high for Bulk with average EBIT growth outlook cut by around -20% since FY24 out to FY27.

The broker notes EPS forecasts sit around -4% and -5% compared to consensus for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Underweight rating and $3.25 target unchanged.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.35 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.52, suggesting upside of 5.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.20 cents and EPS of 23.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.7, implying annual growth of 12.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 20.90 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of 9.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKT    BLACK ROCK MINING LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.05

Petra Capital rates ((BKT)) as Buy (1) –

As a cornerstone for the equity funding of the Mahenge graphite mine, explains Petra Capital, POSCO has signed the long-awaited binding agreement to invest -US$40m into shares of Black Rock Mining.

POSCO will now commit as an offtaker for Module 2 fines graphite on top of Module 1 offtake, explains the analyst.

Black Rock has previously secured US$153m in bank funding and a US$10m prepayment from POSCO.

Buy rating retained. the target falls to 21c from 25c on the issue of additional shares, explains Petra Capital.

This report was published on September 5, 2024.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.156
If BKT meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 289% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 27.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BXB    BRAMBLES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $18.63

Jarden rates ((BXB)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden highlights some of the updates which may be presented at Brambles’ Investor Day, Sept 11-13 including the sustainability of capex cuts; the factors for increased operating leverage beyond FY25 and plans for the balance sheet/capital management.

The analyst is also seeking answers on return on capex; the future expectations around pricing/competition and a finalising of the irrecoverable pooling equipment provision debate.

Overweight rating and $17.90 target price unchanged. No changes to earnings forecasts.

This report was published on September 3, 2024.

Target price is $17.90 Current Price is $18.63 Difference: minus $0.73 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $18.76, suggesting upside of 1.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 84.56 cents and EPS of 93.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 91.86 cents and EPS of 101.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.8, implying annual growth of 13.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CVN    CARNARVON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.15

Jarden rates ((CVN)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) –

Jarden adjusts the outlook for Carnarvon Energy on the back of recent commentary from Santos ((STO)) on Dorado.

The analyst points at frustration around the fact the operator of the company’s key asset is flagging a challenging environment, including the decision to lower the risk weighting on Dorado to 75% from 100%.

Jarden maintains its forecasts for the final investment decision date in 2026 and first production in 2030.

Rating downgraded to Overweight from Buy. Target price moves to 21c from 24c.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.06
If CVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 150.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DDR    DICKER DATA LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $8.90

Petra Capital rates ((DDR)) as Buy (1) –

Overall, the 1H performance by Dicker Data was positive and should continue to improve over the next 18 months, according to Petra Capital.

The broker highlights a 2Q growth rate of 8.3% reflected increasing demand across several product categories and further market share gains.

For H2, management expects both revenue and profits will return to growth, driven by the much-anticipated PC refresh, suggests the broker.

Buy retained, and target rises to $10.71 from $10.41.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $10.71 Current Price is $8.90 Difference: $1.81
If DDR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.57, suggesting upside of 19.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 45.50 cents and EPS of 45.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.2, implying annual growth of -0.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.50 cents and EPS of 57.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.2, implying annual growth of 13.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DGL    DGL GROUP LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies – Overnight Price: $0.49

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DGL)) as Hold (3) –

DGL Group reported revenue for FY24 below Canaccord Genuity’s expectations and operating expenses higher than forecast. EBITDA was in line with estimates at mid-$60m the analyst notes.

Management offered no FY25 guidance, but the trading update revealed more robust volumes in the 1H25 due to better growing conditions for crops. Labour markets remain tight in Australia with lower raw material prices evidenced as commodity markets steady.

The broker’s EPS forecasts are revised by -15% and -13%, for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Hold rating unchanged. Target price falls to 51c from 60c as the broker awaits an improvement on return on capital.

This report was published on September 4, 2024.

Target price is $0.51 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.02
If DGL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.56, suggesting upside of 15.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.6, implying annual growth of 13.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.4, implying annual growth of 14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FCL    FINEOS CORPORATION HOLDINGS PLC

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $1.35

Goldman Sachs rates ((FCL)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs lowers its target for Fineos Corp by -13% to $1.65 following 1H results due to higher operating expense forecasts over FY24-26.

As management’s new FY24 guidance suggests a weaker Subscription revenue outlook, the broker reduces its Subscription valuation multiple, which also negatively impacts the target price.

The Neutral rating is unchanged.

This report was published on September 4, 2024.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: $0.295
If FCL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2765.31.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2053.03.

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FEX    FENIX RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $0.24

Petra Capital rates ((FEX)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital highlights record iron ore sales from the Iron Ridge mine in FY24, while $77m of cash on hand will allow Fenix Resources to progress production growth initiatives.

The broker forecasts production will rise to 2.6mt in FY25 as Shine and Beebyn-W11 ramp-up, with further growth to 4.2mt for FY26.

By FY26, the analyst  predicts the company will be exporting 6mt of iron ore (internal and third party) to become a significant bulk commodities logistics provider in Western Australia’s Mid-West region.

Target falls to 44c from 47c. Buy retained.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $0.44 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.195
If FEX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 80% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.95.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GDG    GENERATION DEVELOPMENT GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $2.75

Petra Capital rates ((GDG)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital assesses a “strong” FY24 result for Generation Development driven by a record year for annual Investment Bond sales (now No 1 for market share) and a 76% rise for Lonsec associate income.

Regarding the Investment Bonds, funds under management (FUM) rose by 27% year-on-year to $3.3bn, driven by new sales of $657m and a positive investment experience of $219m, explains the broker. FUM for Lonsec increased by 20%.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $2.95 from $2.78.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: $0.2
If GDG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.20 cents and EPS of 7.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.81.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 2.40 cents and EPS of 10.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.46.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMD    GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.18

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GMD)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes an increase in FY25 production guidance for Genesis Minerals by around 18% to 190-210koz with Laverton expected to re-start in October instead of March quarter 2025.

All-in-sustaining guidance is revised by -2% to $2,200-$2,400. Management highlighted FY25 will be the peak investment.

Buy and $3.15 target retained.

This report was published on September 3, 2024.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $0.97
If GMD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting upside of 13.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.4, implying annual growth of 99.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 14.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GTK    GENTRACK GROUP LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $9.53

Goldman Sachs rates ((GTK)) as Buy (1) –

Harking back to Gentrack Group’s “strong” 1H results (September year-end) on May 20 and looking forward to management guidance in November, Goldman Sachs is becoming increasingly confident in the growth outlook.

This confidence partly stems from management’s track record of upgrading and beating guidance, success in the international strategy and expansion into new markets via M&A.

Despite ongoing investment and recent customer wins, the market is placing minimal value on Gentrack’s ability to grow its international pipeline, in the analysts’ opinion.

The target rises by 2% to NZ$11.75, and the Buy rating is kept.

This report was published on September 4, 2024.

Current Price is $9.53. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $11.23, suggesting upside of 17.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 86.10.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 93.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.5.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPL    INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $3.08

Jarden rates ((IPL)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden expects Incitec Pivot to announce the transformation of the global explosives business at the upcoming Investor Days Sept 16-17 at Salt Lake City under the new CEO.

The broker anticipates management will expand via acquisitions in explosives distribution networks rather than manufacturing capacity in EMEA and LATAM markets.

The strategy is viewed as a mirror of Orica’s ((ORI)) Exsa acquisition.

Overweight rating and $3.15 target unchanged. No alteration in earnings forecasts.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.08 Difference: $0.07
If IPL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.07, suggesting upside of 0.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.80 cents and EPS of 19.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of -33.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 21.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of 4.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOT    LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $0.21

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LOT)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity highlights Lotus Resources has signed two uranium off-take agreements for 1.5mlbs of U308 for 2026-2029.

A binding sales agreement has been announced with Curzon Uranium for 0.7mlb with an additional 0.2mlb option for 2030-2032, including a US$15m unsecured loan facility.

North American utility PSEG Nuclear has agreed to a non-binding term sheet for 0.8mlb of uranium, conditional on the execution of a full-form document in the next four months, alongside the decision to restart Kayelekera.

The Speculative Buy rating and target price of 54 cents are retained.

This report was published on September 3, 2024.

Target price is $0.54 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.33
If LOT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 157% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 35.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 70.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Petra Capital rates ((LOT)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital believes near-term contracting volumes for Lotus Resources will overcome market concerns around funding dilution.

The broker was commenting after management signed a binding offtake with Curzon Uranium and agreed a term sheet for offtake with North American utility, PSEG Nuclear. Several further offtake arrangements are anticipated.

Based on drawdown terms, the analyst suspects the securing of US$15m in unsecured debt from Curzon is more for over-run financing than mainstream funding.

Buy. Target falls to 37c from 41c.

This report was published on September 5, 2024.

Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.16
If LOT meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 105.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MHJ    MICHAEL HILL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Luxury – Overnight Price: $0.53

Jarden rates ((MHJ)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes Michael Hill’s group sales for the first eight weeks of FY25 turned positive, suggesting a turnaround from a very challenging FY24.

A&NZ were the weaker locations with Canada generating flat sales year-on-year for FY24 with some indication of market share gains.

In the first eight weeks same store sales grew 5% in Australia and 4% in Canada with NZ down -6.2%.

Gross margins came under pressure from discounting in May/June although sales picked up.

Management highlighted net new stores of -4 with FY25 capex expected to be lower as new store formats and products are “bedded down” for Bevilles.

Target price moves to NZ78c from NZ72c. Overweight rating unchanged.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Current Price is $0.53. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.32.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.07.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTO    MOTORCYCLE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $1.66

Moelis rates ((MTO)) as Buy (1) –

Motorcycle Holdings reported FY24 results which came in at the upper end of guidance.

Moelis observes revenue met expectations while gross profit margins were slightly lower than anticipated at 26%, against 27% in FY23.

The broker highlights what appears to be some demand recovery post a prolonged period of weakness from Nov 2023 to April 2024, which infers the market might be bottoming.

Management is looking to cost out initiatives for FY25 as well as an improvement in margins.

The analyst lifts EPS forecasts by 20% in FY25 and 30% in FY26. Buy rating unchanged. Target price $2.37.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $2.37 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: $0.715
If MTO meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 18.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.76.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.20 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.32.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYE    METAROCK GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.18

Petra Capital rates ((MYE)) as Buy (1) –

After FY24 results exceeded consensus expectations and management outlined growth opportunities, Petra Capital stays with the Speculative Buy rating for Metarock Group and raises the target to 36c from 35c.

The broker highlights ongoing strength of the Mastermyne and Wilson mining businesses.

For FY25, the analyst forecasts an earnings (EBITDA) margin of 8.5%, increasing to 9.1% by FY27, due to scale and operating benefits.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.18
If MYE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.14.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.62.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OBM    ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.57

Canaccord Genuity rates ((OBM)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity points to positive drilling results at Riverina UG which emphasises the high-grade, continuous nature of the ore body for Ora Banda Mining.

The broker notes a second exploration is expected to commence this month to boost resource extension and exploration drilling.

Mining has started at Sand King with the first ore expected for Dec quarter 2024.

Management retained guidance while a slight adjustment to the analyst’s model to 102koz at all-in-sustaining costs of $2125 with around a 55% 2H24 weighting results in a target price lift to 65c from 51c.

 Speculative Buy retained. 

This report was published on September 3, 2024.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.08
If OBM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OML    OOH!MEDIA LIMITED

Out of Home Advertising – Overnight Price: $1.30

Goldman Sachs rates ((OML)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs observes new contract wins for oOh!media including Waverley Council (Sydney), the new Eastlink Motorway in Melbourne and expansion of Sydney northern beaches with 293 shelters.

The broker forecasts the new contracts will add $38m in revenue. Although, the contracts were largely expected the broker still views them as a positive for the company.

Neutral rating and $1.50 target price unchanged.

This report was published on September 9, 2024.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.2
If OML meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.67, suggesting upside of 29.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of 55.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 9000.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 0.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.5, implying annual growth of 17.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORA    ORORA LIMITED

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $2.62

Goldman Sachs rates ((ORA)) as No Rating (-1) –

Goldman Sachs notes the binding agreement for Orora to sell its Orora Packaging Solutions to Veritiv for US$1.2bn.

The offer is expected to generate net proceeds for $1.68 after tax and other adjustments which will pull forward $135m-$140m in capital investment to expand cans capacity at Rocklea in Qld.

Management is also expected to reduce debt. Goldman Sachs is restricted from a rating or target price.

This report was published on September 4, 2024.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.13
If ORA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting downside of -1.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.2, implying annual growth of 2.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 19.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PTM    PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $0.94

Jarden rates ((PTM)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

Jarden observes Platinum Asset Management reported weaker than forecast FY24 earnings because of softer revenue and one-off costs.

Although ongoing funds outflows are anticipated, the analyst believes Platinum Asset Management has done a commendable job in right sizing the business, including -$25m in cost outs planned for FY25.

The broker revises EPS forecasts by 5% for FY25 and -9% for FY26. Upgraded to Neutral from underweight. Target price $1 from $1.05.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: $0.06
If PTM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.00, suggesting upside of 9.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 8.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.6, implying annual growth of 8.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.90 cents and EPS of 8.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.9, implying annual growth of -19.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA    REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $204.66

Jarden rates ((REA)) as Sell (5) –

Jarden takes a look at the possible takeover by REA Group of RightMove in the UK with a mixture of cash/shares.

The analyst notes RightMove’s business model is subscription based whereas REA Group’s is slanted to more “depth”, with both business viewed as high quality.

With a lack of details, Jarden withholds any firm views on the possible takeover but calculates compound growth in revenue between FY24-FY28 of 11% for the combined entity and EBITDA growth of 13%, which are broadly in line with consensus.

Sell rating unchanged with a $164 target price on valuation grounds.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $164.00 Current Price is $204.66 Difference: minus $40.66 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $218.46, suggesting upside of 8.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 223.40 cents and EPS of 420.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 426.5, implying annual growth of 86.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 237.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 255.30 cents and EPS of 479.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 504.0, implying annual growth of 18.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 280.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RHC    RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $39.84

Jarden rates ((RHC)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden assesses the Australia earnings margin was disappointing for Ramsay Health Care’s FY24 earnings while the UK generated robust 21.6% revenue growth as expected.

Ramsay Sante was slightly above forecasts on revenue but below on earnings margin.

The outlook for the company has deteriorated as activity levels slow alongside indexation/pricing not keeping pace with inflation.

Jarden lowers EPS forecasts by -17.4% in FY25 and -23.7% for FY26.

Target price cut to 48.22 from $54.27. Neutral weighting unchanged.

This report was published on August 31, 2024.

Target price is $48.22 Current Price is $39.84 Difference: $8.38
If RHC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $48.49, suggesting upside of 23.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 76.90 cents and EPS of 127.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 168.5, implying annual growth of -55.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 98.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 114.50 cents and EPS of 190.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 187.0, implying annual growth of 11.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR    SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $8.30

Goldman Sachs rates ((SFR)) as Neutral (3) –

Sandfire Resources pre-reported FY24 results, Goldman Sachs observes. FY25 guidance suggests a 13% increase in copper equivalent production with 5.2mtp.a. at Motheo and 4.6mtp.a. at Matsa.

The broker adjusts EPS forecasts by -40% in FY25 and -19% in FY26 because of higher operating costs at Motheo as well as general/admin expenses and amortisation/depreciation charges.

Neutral rating unchanged. Target price revised to $8.20 from $8.50.

This report was published on September 4, 2024.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $8.30 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.22, suggesting upside of 11.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 15.21 cents and EPS of 38.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 24.34 cents and EPS of 77.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.4, implying annual growth of 9.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SMR    STANMORE RESOURCES LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $2.60

Petra Capital rates ((SMR)) as Buy (1) –

Stanmore Resources has gone to 100% ownership after acquiring the better half (in Petra Capital’s view) of the Isaac South deposit, thereby adding incremental value to the Queensland coking coal business.

All else being equal, this move would add 7% to the broker’s assessment of net present value (NPV) for Stanmore, but after recent coking coal price weakness, Petra Capital’s target falls by -3% to $5.32. The Buy rating is retained.

This report was published on September 5, 2024.

Target price is $5.32 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $2.72
If SMR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 105% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.14 cents and EPS of 41.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.31.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.80 cents and EPS of 37.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.86.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SNL    SUPPLY NETWORK LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $29.25

Goldman Sachs rates ((SNL)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs raises its target for Supply Network to $30.50 from $27.40 and maintains a Buy rating in the expectation of market
share gains and ongoing positive industry dynamics for the long-term.

After releasing in-line FY24 results, management forecast FY25 revenue growth will return to historical levels of around 14%, with industry growth of between 5-10% pa over the next decade.

Market share gains will be supported by the trend to aftermarket from OEM, consolidation in aftermarket, and an expanding site capacity and catalogue.

This report was published on September 6, 2024.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $29.25 Difference: $1.25
If SNL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.14.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 105.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.86.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SVW    SEVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $40.63

Goldman Sachs rates ((SVW)) as Buy (1) –

Due to upgraded peer multiples for both WesTrac and Coates, Goldman Sachs’ target for Seven Group rises by around 5% to $45.90. Buy.

Also, the broker suggests price and cost disciple displayed by Boral ((BLD)) is currently underappreciated by the market. The analysts upgrade Boral’s FY25 EBIT forecast by 3% due to an estimated 130bps of margin expansion.

This report was published on September 4, 2024.

Target price is $45.90 Current Price is $40.63 Difference: $5.27
If SVW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $41.73, suggesting upside of 2.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 244.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 229.9, implying annual growth of 82.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 282.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 262.3, implying annual growth of 14.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYA    SAYONA MINING LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.02

Petra Capital rates ((SYA)) as Buy (1) –

Sayona Mining incurred a loss of -$119m in FY24 as lithium prices were below the cost of production at North American Lithium (NAL) while production ramped-up, explains Petra Capital.

While these are testing times in the lithium space, the broker sees a lot of leverage for Sayona to any lithium price improvement. It’s also felt the company’s assets are being overly discounted by the wider market.

Target eases to 14c from 15c, Buy retained.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.12
If SYA meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 600% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.67.

Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPG    TPG TELECOM LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.99

Jarden rates ((TPG)) as Overweight (2) –

TPG Telecom reported weaker 1H24 results according to Jarden with an unexpected miss on postpaid mobile. 

Subscribers fell -47% against gains for Optus and Telstra and which results in a decline in average revenue per user forecasts for FY24.

Jarden makes small changes to EPS forecasts.

The Overweight rating and $5.25 target price are retained.

This report was published on August 31, 2024.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: $0.26
If TPG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.29, suggesting upside of 6.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.3, implying annual growth of 441.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 15.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.0, implying annual growth of 46.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VIT    VITURA HEALTH LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.09

Petra Capital rates ((VIT)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Petra Capital adopts a conservative stance on the outlook for Vitura Health, despite management’s update that performance is tracking
ahead of budget for the first two months of FY25.

Due to recent competitive pressures, margins have come under pressure, explains the broker. Tangible progress is awaited of management executing the turnaround strategy before making any upward revisions to forecasts.

The Speculative Buy rating and 12c target are unchanged.

This report was published on September 5, 2024.

Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.03
If VIT meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.43.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES    WESFARMERS LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $70.01

Jarden rates ((WES)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden commends Wesfarmers on another quality FY24 result including robust cash conversion.

The broker notes FY25 has got off to a slow start with concerns around the extent of earnings growth for Bunnings, as well as the outlook for Heath/OneDigital.

With a lack of recent investment in “material” projects, Jarden harbours earnings growth concerns overall and lowers FY25 EPS estimates by -3%.

Neutral rating retained. Target price lifted to $61.20 from $60.70.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $61.20 Current Price is $70.01 Difference: minus $8.81 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $64.33, suggesting downside of -7.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 208.00 cents and EPS of 237.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.9, implying annual growth of 5.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 207.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 233.00 cents and EPS of 267.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 258.1, implying annual growth of 8.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 224.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Disclaimer:
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