Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 23, 2024

This story features ALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALQ

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALQ (2)   BSL   BTH   COI   EVN   IPL   LOT (2)   MYX   PXA   PYC   QOR   SGM   TTM   UNI   VR8   WR1  

ALQ    ALS LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $13.86

Goldman Sachs rates ((ALQ)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs observes the 1H25 trading update from ALS Ltd with a -5% decline in expected net profit because of weaker commodities and higher financing costs, via leases and interest expenses.

Life sciences offset some of the weakness including over 10% growth in environmental across all geographies.

The broker cuts EBIT forecasts by -6% in FY25 and -4% in FY26.

Buy rating unchanged. Target price falls -5% to $14.85.

This report was published on September 19, 2024.

Target price is $14.85 Current Price is $13.86 Difference: $0.99
If ALQ meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.43, suggesting upside of 12.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.3, implying annual growth of 2308.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.5, implying annual growth of 12.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((ALQ)) as Overweight (2) –

Following ALS Ltd’s 1H trading update, Jarden sees potential for consensus downgrades to both core profit and core EPS forecasts of around -5% and -7%, respectively.

The update highlighted deteriorating volumes in the Geochemistry business and higher net interest costs, explains the broker, both of which should drive an around -5% decline in “Core NPAT” relative to the 1H, according to management.

More positively, the Life Sciences business is proving resilient, which the analysts forecast will contribute circa 60%-70%  of incremental EBIT growth moving forward.

The target falls to $14.20 from $14.90. The Overweight. rating is kept given the recent fall in ALS Ltd’s share price, explains Jarden.

This report was published on September 20, 2024.

Target price is $14.20 Current Price is $13.86 Difference: $0.34
If ALQ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.43, suggesting upside of 12.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 36.80 cents and EPS of 64.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.3, implying annual growth of 2308.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 42.60 cents and EPS of 71.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.5, implying annual growth of 12.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL    BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $21.07

Jarden rates ((BSL)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden highlights the downgrade in Q3 2024 earnings for North America’s largest steel producer Nucor on the back of softer selling prices in its steel mills, steel products and raw materials.

The broker views this as a negative for BlueScope Steel given around 63% of the company’s forecast EBIT will be generated in its North American operations in FY25.

With BlueScope Steel’s guidance of $350m to $420m in 1H25 the analyst believes the projections already discount challenging market conditions.

Separately, management conceded in an investor call (including Jarden) about ESG that safety outcomes at the company require significant improvement and pointed to a new global safety program.

The program is designed to increase employee compliance, particularly for new employees, following higher recent staff turnover levels.

The Overweight rating is kept and the target climbs to $23 from $22.90 after the broker adjusts valuation multiples.

This report was published on September 18, 2024.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $21.07 Difference: $1.93
If BSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.25, suggesting upside of 6.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 104.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 130.0, implying annual growth of -27.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 179.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 205.6, implying annual growth of 58.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BTH    BIGTINCAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $0.17

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BTH)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity notes Bigtincan Holdings has received another non-binding proposal from Vector Capital Management for 20c or a premium of 67% to the pre-offer price of 12c.

The company said it will evaluate the revised offer. The broker believes this third offer is the most legitimate.

Hold rating unchanged with a revised target price of 20c although a higher bid may emerge the analyst stresses.

This report was published on September 18, 2024.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.035
If BTH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 165.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 82.50.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COI    COMET RIDGE LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $0.17

Petra Capital rates ((COI)) as Buy (1) –

Management has provided an update for the 57%-owned Mahalo joint venture, as well for Mahalo North and Mahalo East which are fully owned by Comet Ridge.

Petra Capital has deferred its first production forecast at the joint venture by a year and risk-weighted development by -10% in the analyst’s valuation to reflect uncertainty after progress by key operator Santos ((STO)) has slowed.

Drilling at Mahalo East begins in October, while the broker awaits final approvals at Mahalo North where pre-front-end engineering design (FEED) upstream activities continue.

The Buy rating is maintained, and the target reduced to 29c from 35c.

This report was published on September 20, 2024.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.12
If COI meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 56.67.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 42.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN    EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $4.40

Jarden rates ((EVN)) as Underweight (4) –

Evolution Mining joined the Denver Gold Forum but did not reveal any major changes to the outlook according to Jarden.

The broker raises the gold price forecast to US$2450oz for the quarter and the FY25 forecast lifts 10.5% to US$2375oz with US$2075oz for FY26 up from US$2000oz.

All-in-sustaining costs rise to $1529oz for FY25 from $1463oz, which means despite the lift in the gold price FY25 EPS forecasts are largely unchanged. but could fall the analyst highlights.

Jarden’s FY26 EPS declines to 24c from 30c previously because of higher costs.

No change to Underweight rating. Target price lifts to $3.25 from $3.13.

This report was published on September 18, 2024.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: minus $1.15 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.20, suggesting downside of -4.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 30.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.9, implying annual growth of 49.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 23.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.2, implying annual growth of -8.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPL    INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $3.10

Jarden rates ((IPL)) as Overweight (2) –

Incitec Pivot announced a global explosives plan aiming for EBIT to reach $300m by FY28 which suggests to Jarden its FY28 EBIT forecast would increase by around $254m.

At the November FY24 results, the broker expects further updates on fertilisers sale with the distribution business ready to be sold and Phosphate Hill plant closed before it requires more capex investment.

Management is also aiming for $60m in EBIT from expanding Latam and Emea which Jarden believes will be challenging without acquisitions.

The analyst lowers net profit forecasts by -6% for FY24 and -2% in FY25.

No change to Overweight rating with a $3.15 target price.

This report was published on September 18, 2024.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $0.05
If IPL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 0.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.10 cents and EPS of 18.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of -35.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 20.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of 7.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOT    LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $0.23

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LOT)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Lotus Resources updated scoping study on its Letlhakane uranium project in Botswana. Canaccord Genuity highlights the update includes average annual production of 2mlbsp.a. from 3.5mlbs p.a. and a 15-year mine life, down from 20 years.

The expected initial capex is -US$488.5m against the broker’s previous forecast of -US$526m.

Lotus Resources has stated a total cash cost of US$42/lb versus the analyst’s previous forecast of US$40.8lb.

The Speculative Buy rating remains. Target price falls to 52c from 54c.

This report was published on September 19, 2024.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.29
If LOT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 126% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.54, suggesting upside of 107.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 76.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 46.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Petra Capital rates ((LOT)) as Buy (1) –

The scoping study for Lotus Resources’ Letlhakane project in Botswana confirms key value drivers for further optimisation studies due in the December quarter, explains Petra Capital.

The analyst still assumes a longer mine life than management’s 15-year base case, given the broker’s positive view of very-long-term uranium pricing.

The Buy rating is unchanged, but the broker’s target falls to 33c from 37c on revised parameters for Letlhakane.

This report was published on September 20, 2024.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.1
If LOT meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.54, suggesting upside of 107.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 76.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYX    MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $4.58

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MYX)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes some positive news in the dermatology M&A space which the broker believes is positive for the “biotech outlook.”

Dermatology is highlighted as the preferred space for Mayne Pharma with the acquisition by US-based Organon of Dermavant offering an insight into current valuations.

Unchanged Buy rating. Target price $6.25 reiterated.

This report was published on September 19, 2024.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $1.67
If MYX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PXA    PEXA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $14.60

Jarden rates ((PXA)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden expects transfer activity to remain around 4.7% of dwellings in FY25 and FY26 based on annual price increases of 6%-8% for Pexa Group.

The broker anticipates refinancing activity with decline to 3% of dwellings in FY25 from 3.3% in FY24, resulting in lower forecast billable items growth of around -2% to 0.2% in FY25.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -3% for FY25.

Neutral rating unchanged. Target price lifts to $14.90 from $14.45 due to medium-term EPS forecast changes.

This report was published on September 18, 2024.

Target price is $14.90 Current Price is $14.60 Difference: $0.3
If PXA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.87, suggesting upside of 9.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 57.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 44.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.6, implying annual growth of 36.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PYC    PYC THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.14

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PYC)) as Buy (1) –

Two international licensing deals by Novo Nordisk in the RNA editing space are potentially positive for PYC Therapeutics and the biotech sector in general, suggests Bell Potter.

RNA editing is increasingly being recognised as a way to effectively and efficiently modulate protein production, with a positive impact on targeting certain diseases, highlights the broker.

The Buy rating and 22c target are maintained.

This report was published on September 20, 2024.

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.08
If PYC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QOR    QORIA LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $0.40

Canaccord Genuity rates ((QOR)) as Buy (1) –

In a material and strategic deal, according to Canaccord Genuity, Qoria has struck a partnership with Schools Broadband, the UK’s largest K-12 (kindergarten to 12th grade) Managed Service Provider to offer its Smoothwall Monitor solution.

The broker anticipates a strong take-up from schools from the 2Q of FY25, and a more than $9m near-term revenue opportunity at elevated incremental earnings (EBIT) margins of circa 80%.

The Buy rating and 50c target are retained.

This report was published on September 20, 2024.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.1
If QOR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.53.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 40.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM    SIMS LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $12.36

Jarden rates ((SGM)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Following a 1Q trading update for the Metals business, Jarden raises its target for Sims to $12.50 from $12.00 but downgrades to Neutral from Overweight after recent share price strength.

The broker is encouraged by the turnaround in the North America (NAM) segment suggesting it offers the greatest improvement opportunity via pivoting towards domestic customers  and consolidating regional markets.

Reducing NAM’s exposure to global trading markets provides another avenue for improvement, according to the analysts.

This report was published on September 20, 2024.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $12.36 Difference: $0.14
If SGM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.85, suggesting upside of 4.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.60 cents and EPS of 35.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.20 cents and EPS of 79.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.1, implying annual growth of 94.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TTM    TITAN MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.45

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TTM)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity highlights the binding joint venture and earn-in agreement over the Linderos Copper Project with Titan Minerals and Hanrine.

This project is around 25km southwest of Titan Minerals’ flagship 3.1moz Dynasty Gold project in southern Ecuador.

The earn-in allows Hanrine to pay -US$2m for an initial 5% stake in Linderos, suggesting a US$40m value for the project with the potential to earn up to 80%. The broker includes the valuation of Linderos in its Titan Minerals valuation.

Unchanged $1.30 target and Speculative Buy rating.

This report was published on September 18, 2024.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.85
If TTM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 189% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UNI    UNIVERSAL STORE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $6.91

Petra Capital rates ((UNI)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Petra Capital initiates research coverage with a Buy rating on Australian specialty retailer of youth fashion apparel, Universal Store.

A point of difference over other retailers, in the broker’s view, is management’s ability to understand customer preferences and maintain high service standards, as well as a fast supply chain.

These high standards apply across the company’s 102 stores and online channels, spanning three retail formats including Universal Store, Perfect Stranger and Thrills, explains the analyst.

Full brand control, including product development, brand position and the pricing/marketing strategy produce higher gross margins and single-brand store format opportunities, explains Petra Capital.

A $7.50 target price is set.

This report was published on September 20, 2024.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.91 Difference: $0.59
If UNI meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.70, suggesting upside of 11.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 33.20 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.6, implying annual growth of 5.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 51.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.2, implying annual growth of 9.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VR8    VANADIUM RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.04

Petra Capital rates ((VR8)) as Buy (1) –

As part of the ongoing development of vanadium deposits at the Steelpoortdrift Vanadium Project, management at Vanadium Resources has signed an Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Financing (EPC+F) memorandum of understanding (MOU).

The MOU is with CEIG (a world-class provider of EPC and renewable energy solutions, according to the broker) a subsidiary of Hong-King-listed China Energy Engineering Corporation (CEEC).

The analyst suggests Vanadium Resources is now well positioned to secure a funding solution by its targeted timeline of mid-2025, enabling the start of mine and concentrator construction in H2 of 2025.

The Buy rating and 16c target are unchanged.

This report was published on September 20, 2024.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.115
If VR8 meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 256% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.50.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WR1    WINSOME RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.46

Canaccord Genuity rates ((WR1)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity observes the scoping study for Winsome Resources’ Adina project in Quebec with the possible development of a 1.7mtp.a. operation, implying existing infrastructure from the Renard Diamond mine.

The operation is expected to produce 256ktp.a. of spodumene over a 21-year mine life with cash costs of US$615t and all-in-sustaining costs of US$716t.

This is assessed as a “brownfield” project by the broker.

Speculative Buy rating and $1.75 target remain.

This report was published on September 18, 2024.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $1.29
If WR1 meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 280% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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