Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Oct 17, 2024

This story features 29METALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 29M

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

29M   AIA   ALD   ALK (2)   ASB   BAP   BBN   CNB   COE   CYL   DMP   EVN   EVT   FWD   HGO   HUB (3)   IGO   LTR   MAC   MLX   NIC   NXL   ORA   ORI   PLL   PLS   SFR   SYA   TCG   TLX   TPG (2)   TTM   TYR   WEB (3)  

29M    29METALS LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $0.49

Canaccord Genuity rates ((29M)) as Sell (5) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews fundamentals for base metals and electric vehicle materials and updates forecasts for relevant stocks under research coverage.

The broker increases its near-term nickel and zinc price forecasts to US$7.71/lb and US$1.25/lb, respectively, and lowers the near-term cobalt price to US$12.50/lb, and to US$13.61/lb for both 2025 and 2026.

The near-term lithium price forecasts for spodumene and chemicals fall by -9% and -14%, respectively.

For 29Metals, the target rises to 35c from 32c on higher zinc pricing and model adjustments, explains the broker. Sell.

This report was published on October 15, 2024.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.53, suggesting upside of 6.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -11.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AIA    AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $6.70

Jarden rates ((AIA)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

Auckland International Airport has completed a NZ$1.4bn capital raising which Jarden views as sufficient to support the company’s NZ$6.6bn planned aeronautical investment program and capex, with the NZ Commerce Commission’s draft PSE4 pricing report also supportive.

The company has signed an -NZ$800m contract for the development of the domestic jet terminal building as part of the NZ$2.2bn project.

Jarden raises net profit forecasts by 8% to 12% for FY25 to FY27 on the back of lower interest expenses. EPS estimates are essentially unchanged for FY26/FY27.

Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral with a higher target price of NZ$7.79, up from NZ$7.59.

This report was published on October 14, 2024.

Current Price is $6.70. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.71 cents and EPS of 18.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 14.73 cents and EPS of 21.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of 8.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.8.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALD    AMPOL LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $28.99

Goldman Sachs rates ((ALD)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs observes a much lower than expected Lytton gross profit in 3Q24 compared to expectations, resulting from extended maintenance on the catalytic cracker.

The analyst points to the extended downtime as the reason for a gross margin of only US$1.48/bbl.

Capex is expected to decline by -$50m in 2025. 

Target declines -2% to $32.30. Neutral rating with a preference for Viva Energy Group ((VEA)). 

This report was published on October 16, 2024.

Target price is $32.30 Current Price is $28.99 Difference: $3.31
If ALD meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.96, suggesting upside of 12.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 114.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.3, implying annual growth of -37.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 97.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 114.00 cents and EPS of 165.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 209.0, implying annual growth of 45.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALK    ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.53

Moelis rates ((ALK)) as Buy (1) –

Alkane Resources reported better than expected 1Q25 results, Moelis notes, with gold production above estimates, lower all-in-sustaining costs and higher gold sales.

Management reiterated FY25 production guidance.

The broker highlights Roswell was the star where grades came in around 22% higher than expectations. There is still upside grade potential from Roswell.

The decline in the stock’s share price compared to gold peers reflects the extended capital program at Tomingley, the broker surmises.

Target price lifts to 75c from 70c with an ongoing Buy rating.

This report was published on October 14, 2024.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.22
If ALK meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.93.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.07.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Petra Capital rates ((ALK)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital notes the underground Roswell operations provided for a solid 1Q25 quarterly report from Alkane Resources.

Gold production advanced 6% on the quarter with lower than forecast all-in-sustaining costs.

The September quarter reflected the highest production in two years, the analyst highlights. Roswell is expected to underpin a strong annual production of 73koz, Petra Capital estimates, versus 57koz in FY24.

Target price lifts to $1.04 from $1 with a Buy rating.

This report was published on October 16, 2024.

Target price is $1.04 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.51
If ALK meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.14.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.45.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASB    AUSTAL LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies – Overnight Price: $3.08

Petra Capital rates ((ASB)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital has reviewed some of the assumptions for Austal’s earnings forecasts due to more “conservative” delivery timelines for works.

The analyst has upgraded EPS for estimates for FY25 by 5% but downgraded FY26 EPS forecasts by -45% based on the delay in revenues from existing orders and new contract wins, lower overhead costs in FY25, and more modest margin forecasts.

Austal is reiterated as a Buy rating with a downward revision in the target price to $3.14 from $3.23. 

This report was published on October 14, 2024.

Target price is $3.14 Current Price is $3.08 Difference: $0.06
If ASB meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.26, suggesting upside of 4.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.5, implying annual growth of 229.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 13.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 33.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BAP    BAPCOR LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $5.08

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BAP)) as Hold (3) –

Both Canaccord Genuity and consensus had forecast 1.9% revenue growth for the 1H of FY25 but at the end of Q1 there has only been a 0.7% lift, revealed management at the AGM.

Given evidence of market share losses, the broker is dubious Bapcor can meet 1H expectations.

Due to a potential revenue shortfall, the broker highlights cost save targets assume greater importance. According to management, targeted savings of -$20-30m remain in place and on track.

The Hold rating and $4.80 target are maintained.

This report was published on October 17, 2024.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If BAP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 3.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.8, implying annual growth of 11.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BBN    BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $1.93

Wilsons rates ((BBN)) as Overweight (1) –

Baby Bunting offered a trading update at the AGM with gross profit margins rising 240bps to 40.3% and total sales up 2.4% year-on-year.

Wilsons notes sales remain subdued, but management reconfirmed net profit guidance of $9.5m-$12.5m with better gross margins.

Margins gains are seemingly generated from structural factors such as loyalty changes, supplier negotiations and brand partnerships, the broker explains.

Overweight rating unchanged. Target price lifts 5% to $2.20.

This report was published on October 16, 2024.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.27
If BBN meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting downside of -6.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 550.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.1, implying annual growth of 47.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNB    CARNABY RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.35

Moelis rates ((CNB)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Moelis begins research coverage of copper and gold developer Carnaby Resources with a Buy rating and 86c target price.

Management is targeting projects throughout Australia with copper, gold and lithium deposits. Currently the flagship asset is the Greater Duchess Project, approximately 70km southeast of Mt Isa, with in an in situ resource of over 300kt of copper equivalent.

The point of difference for this project, according to Moelis, is a low up front capital requirement as well as relative speed to production.

Modelling points to a low upfront capital requirement to establish an initial open pit mine followed by underground mining, highlights the analyst.

Management’s intention is to rail ore directly to Glencore’s Mt Isa copper concentrator and process under a toll treating arrangement
for an initial period of nine years.

This report was published on October 16, 2024.

Target price is $0.86 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.505
If CNB meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 142% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE    COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.20

Wilsons rates ((COE)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons believe the record production for Cooper Energy at 1Q25 results with $65.8m in revenue, a rise of 15% on 4Q24 will permit the company to deleverage over the near term.

The strong production was generated from Sole gas field and Orbost plant due to improvements at the gas plant. The broker highlights the new extended absorber has reduced cleaning times underwriting plant productivity improvements.

Wilsons increases forecast production plateau at Sole/Orbost to 62.9Tj/d from 58.3Tj/d, while lifting 1H25 production estimate by 8% with expected maintenance to lower 2H25 expectations by -5.5%.

Overweight rating. Target price set at 24c, unchanged.

This report was published on October 16, 2024.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.035
If COE meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 32.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 190.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 0.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 58.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 0.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.6, implying annual growth of 225.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CYL    CATALYST METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $3.06

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CYL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

First quarter gold production and costs (AISC) for Catalyst Metals were in line with Canaccord Genuity’s forecasts and both the Plutonic operations in WA and Henty (Tasmania) remain on track to meet FY25 guidance.

Management’s three-year production and AISC outlook remain unchanged.

The Speculative Buy rating and $4.00 target are retained.

This report was published on October 16, 2024.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $0.94
If CYL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 47.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.51.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 73.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.19.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DMP    DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $36.67

Petra Capital rates ((DMP)) as Hold (3) –

Petra Capital views Domino’s Pizza Enterprises’ valuation aligns with international peers and the lower end of the premium price-to-earnings range against the ASX200.

Other observations include net store roll out which is tracking lower at -1.8% for FY25-to-date, due to pulling forward store openings in France and Japan versus store closures.

On the cost front, Japan’s minimum wage will advance around 5% from Oct with no change in the company’s other major markets.

A higher Japanese Yen versus the US dollar offers some relief on the FX front.

Hold rating unchanged. Target price rises to $34.40 from $34.

This report was published on October 15, 2024.

Target price is $34.40 Current Price is $36.67 Difference: minus $2.27 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $34.14, suggesting downside of -7.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 118.60 cents and EPS of 147.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 141.8, implying annual growth of 32.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 111.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 132.50 cents and EPS of 166.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 167.6, implying annual growth of 18.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 132.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN    EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $5.01

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EVN)) as Buy (1) –

Evolution Mining remains on track to hit FY25 guidance, according to management, after a production beat at the Red Lake operation in Q1, explains Canaccord Genuity.

Group gold production of 194koz exceeded the 187koz forecast by consensus, notes the broker.

The analysts highlight group free cash flow (FCF) was $81m for Q1 and deleveraging of the balance sheet continues at pace. Capital management options are expected to be on the table. In FY26, Canaccord forecasts $500m surplus cash flow.

The broker’s target rises to $5.20 from $5.00. Buy.

This report was published on October 16, 2024.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.01 Difference: $0.19
If EVN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting downside of -11.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.4, implying annual growth of 42.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of 11.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVT    EVT LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $10.81

Jarden rates ((EVT)) as Buy (1) –

Based on Jarden’s inaugural entertainment box office tracker, the broker believes it is the time to be looking at EVT Ltd.

The current share price suggests to the analyst cinemas are a liability whereas the broker views cinema earnings are at an “inflection point” with a return to growth in FY25, both domestically and globally.

EVT Ltd continues to trade at a discount to its net tangible asset value post covid, which is viewed as excessive by Jarden.

Buy rated with a $12.46 target price.

This report was published on October 16, 2024.

Target price is $12.46 Current Price is $10.81 Difference: $1.65
If EVT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 26.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.34.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.14.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FWD    FLEETWOOD LIMITED

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $2.10

Moelis rates ((FWD)) as Buy (1) –

Visibility is on the improve for near-term contracted utilisation, highlights Moelis, after management at Fleetwood struck an agreement with Saipem Clough Joint Venture for accommodation at Searipple Village.

The JV has secured a supply of rooms at the Village in Karratha from October 2024 for a two year period on a take or pay basis, explains the broker. Around $13.5m of additional revenue is now expected for Fleetwood’s Community Solutions division.

Target rises to $2.20 from $2.09. Buy retained.

This report was published on October 16, 2024.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.1
If FWD meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 21.20 cents and EPS of 21.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.91.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 29.10 cents and EPS of 29.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 13.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.22.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HGO    HILLGROVE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $0.06

Canaccord Genuity rates ((HGO)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews fundamentals for base metals and electric vehicle materials and updates forecasts for relevant stocks under research coverage.

The broker increases its near-term nickel and zinc price forecasts to US$7.71/lb and US$1.25/lb, respectively, and lowers the near-term cobalt price to US$12.50/lb, and to US$13.61/lb for both 2025 and 2026.

The near-term lithium price forecasts for spodumene and chemicals fall by -9% and -14%, respectively.

Management at Hillgrove Resources pre-reported 3Q production and beat the broker’s estimates.

The Speculative Buy rating and 10c target are maintained.

This report was published on October 15, 2024.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.038
If HGO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB    HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $65.41

Jarden rates ((HUB)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden highlights a robust equity market and net inflows boosted 1Q25 results for Hub24 with the extension of the EQT Trustees ((EQT)) transition pushed out to the later part of FY25 from 1H25.

The outlook for net inflows appears to be positive to the broker with the EQT flows still to come, creating an upbeat outlook for FY26.

Jarden revises EPS forecasts by 3.4% in FY26.

Target price is raised to $49.50 from $47.30. Underweight rating unchanged as the analyst believes a lot of the good news on funds inflows is discounted in the share price.

This report was published on October 16, 2024.

Target price is $49.50 Current Price is $65.41 Difference: minus $15.91 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $59.67, suggesting downside of -9.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 55.40 cents and EPS of 110.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 109.8, implying annual growth of 88.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 60.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 68.90 cents and EPS of 137.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 133.0, implying annual growth of 21.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((HUB)) as Hold (3) –

Moelis states Hub24 has commenced FY25 with robust results because of strong inflows via organic growth and tailwinds from market momentum.

The broker expects 2Q25 net inflows of $1.5bn will include EQT Trustees ((EQT)) as a one-off lift to the portfolio with $0.9bn delayed into 2H25.

Management continues to execute well, Moelis highlights, including the announcement of a strategic alliance with Reach Alternative Investments. The agreement is a minority equity stake with collaboration on providing alternative investment opportunities.

Hold rating retained. Target price rises to $67.92.

This report was published on October 15, 2024.

Target price is $67.92 Current Price is $65.41 Difference: $2.51
If HUB meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $59.67, suggesting downside of -9.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 112.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 58.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 109.8, implying annual growth of 88.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 60.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 66.30 cents and EPS of 136.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 133.0, implying annual growth of 21.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((HUB)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons remains Overweight on Hub24 with the company continuing to execute strong results in 1Q25 with funds under administration rising 41% on the previous corresponding period. Gross inflows advanced 35% without the contribution from EQT Trustees ((EQT)).

The analyst believes the valuation gap between Hub24 and Netwealth Group ((NWL)) will continue to shrink as Hub24 has the superior earnings growth profile.

Wilsons is seeking to review forecasts post the company’s Strategy Day on November 28 in Sydney. Target price $74.41.

This report was published on October 15, 2024.

Target price is $74.41 Current Price is $65.41 Difference: $9
If HUB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $59.67, suggesting downside of -9.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 117.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 109.8, implying annual growth of 88.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 60.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 151.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 133.0, implying annual growth of 21.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $5.41

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IGO)) as Sell (5) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews fundamentals for base metals and electric vehicle materials and updates forecasts for relevant stocks under research coverage.

The broker increases its near-term nickel and zinc price forecasts to US$7.71/lb and US$1.25/lb, respectively, and lowers the near-term cobalt price to US$12.50/lb, and to US$13.61/lb for both 2025 and 2026.

The near-term lithium price forecasts for spodumene and chemicals fall by -9% and -14%, respectively.

For IGO Ltd, a focus at upcoming 1Q results will be on Greenbushes sales and distributions to joint venture parties, suggests the broker.

The $4.70 target and Sell rating are maintained.

This report was published on October 15, 2024.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $5.41 Difference: minus $0.71 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.73, suggesting upside of 3.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 67.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.7, implying annual growth of 1981.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 72.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.1, implying annual growth of 213.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LTR    LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.82

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LTR)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews fundamentals for base metals and electric vehicle materials and updates forecasts for relevant stocks under research coverage.

The broker increases its near-term nickel and zinc price forecasts to US$7.71/lb and US$1.25/lb, respectively, and lowers the near-term cobalt price to US$12.50/lb, and to US$13.61/lb for both 2025 and 2026.

The near-term lithium price forecasts for spodumene and chemicals fall by -9% and -14%, respectively.

For Liontown Resources, the broker anticipates management commentary at upcoming 1Q results will focus on costs and the cash balance which is expected to be around $351m.

The target falls to 90c from $1.00. Hold.

This report was published on October 15, 2024.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.075
If LTR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.98, suggesting upside of 14.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAC    METALS ACQUISITION LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $18.52

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MAC)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews fundamentals for base metals and electric vehicle materials and updates forecasts for relevant stocks under research coverage.

The broker increases its near-term nickel and zinc price forecasts to US$7.71/lb and US$1.25/lb, respectively, and lowers the near-term cobalt price to US$12.50/lb, and to US$13.61/lb for both 2025 and 2026.

The near-term lithium price forecasts for spodumene and chemicals fall by -9% and -14%, respectively.

For Metals Acquisition, the target falls to $22 from $26. Buy. While pre-reported 3Q production was a slight beat against the analyst’s forecast, working capital resulted in a -US$20m cash miss.

This report was published on October 15, 2024.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $18.52 Difference: $3.48
If MAC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MLX    METALS X LIMITED

Tin – Overnight Price: $0.43

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MLX)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews fundamentals for base metals and electric vehicle materials and updates forecasts for relevant stocks under research coverage.

The broker increases its near-term nickel and zinc price forecasts to US$7.71/lb and US$1.25/lb, respectively, and lowers the near-term cobalt price to US$12.50/lb, and to US$13.61/lb for both 2025 and 2026.

The near-term lithium price forecasts for spodumene and chemicals fall by -9% and -14%, respectively.

For Metals X’s upcoming 1Q operational result, the broker expects a 10% quarter-on-quarter lift in production, with cash of $182m. The target is increased to 48c from 45c. Hold.

This report was published on October 15, 2024.

Target price is $0.48 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.05
If MLX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NIC    NICKEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $0.96

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NIC)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews fundamentals for base metals and electric vehicle materials and updates forecasts for relevant stocks under research coverage.

The broker increases its near-term nickel and zinc price forecasts to US$7.71/lb and US$1.25/lb, respectively, and lowers the near-term cobalt price to US$12.50/lb, and to US$13.61/lb for both 2025 and 2026.

The near-term lithium price forecasts for spodumene and chemicals fall by -9% and -14%, respectively.

For Nickel Industries, the broker expects a 3Q bounce in EBITDA to US$110m on stronger volumes from rotary kiln-electric furnaces (RKEF’s) and mining operations.

The target rises to $1.00 from 85c.

This report was published on October 15, 2024.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: $0.04
If NIC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.10, suggesting upside of 13.8%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.3, implying annual growth of 116.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXL    NUIX LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $6.71

Petra Capital rates ((NXL)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Petra Capital downgrades Nuix to a Hold from Buy due to the strong price appreciation since coverage was initiated in July.

Momentum has been assisted with investor events in Sydney, London and Nashville with an introduction to cognitive Ai in the new NEO product offering, the broker explains.

Nuix guided to a rise in annualised contract values for FY25 of around 15% in August, above market expectations. NEO sales were also revealed as positive with 23 licenses of $12.1m in contract value accretion.

Hold with a rise in the target price to $6.73 from $5.43.

This report was published on October 14, 2024.

Target price is $6.73 Current Price is $6.71 Difference: $0.02
If NXL meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 122.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 82.84.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORA    ORORA LIMITED

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $2.52

Jarden rates ((ORA)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden has returned from research restriction with a Buy rating on Orora and a $2.70 target price.

The broker believes the outlook for the company remains mixed, but the risk of further disappointment on earnings has declined with Saverglass restocking improving.

Sale of OPS will also boost Orora’s balance sheet with net proceeds of $1.7bn. Buy. $2.70 target price.

This report was published on October 16, 2024.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: $0.18
If ORA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting upside of 0.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.70 cents and EPS of 14.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.2, implying annual growth of 2.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.90 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 19.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORI    ORICA LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $18.02

Goldman Sachs rates ((ORI)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs notes a 2H24 trading update from Orica including segment disclosure. 

The broker lowers net profit estimates by -3% for FY24/FY25 because of increased minorities.

Target price rises 1% to $21.40 from $21.20. Buy rated.

This report was published on October 14, 2024.

Target price is $21.40 Current Price is $18.02 Difference: $3.38
If ORI meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $19.65, suggesting upside of 7.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 84.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.4, implying annual growth of 34.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 104.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.1, implying annual growth of 22.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLL    PIEDMONT LITHIUM INC

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.20

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PLL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews fundamentals for base metals and electric vehicle materials and updates forecasts for relevant stocks under research coverage.

The broker increases its near-term nickel and zinc price forecasts to US$7.71/lb and US$1.25/lb, respectively, and lowers the near-term cobalt price to US$12.50/lb, and to US$13.61/lb for both 2025 and 2026.

The near-term lithium price forecasts for spodumene and chemicals fall by -9% and -14%, respectively.

For Piedmont Lithium, the broker is expecting a $46m cash balance at upcoming 3Q results. 

The Speculative Buy rating and 35c target are maintained.

This report was published on October 15, 2024.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.145
If PLL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS    PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $2.69

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PLS)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews fundamentals for base metals and electric vehicle materials and updates forecasts for relevant stocks under research coverage.

The broker increases its near-term nickel and zinc price forecasts to US$7.71/lb and US$1.25/lb, respectively, and lowers the near-term cobalt price to US$12.50/lb, and to US$13.61/lb for both 2025 and 2026.

The near-term lithium price forecasts for spodumene and chemicals fall by -9% and -14%, respectively.

For Pilbara Minerals at upcoming 1Q results, the broker expects annualised production will beat guidance but should be flat quarter-on-quarter.

The target falls to $3.90 from $4.00. Buy.

This report was published on October 15, 2024.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $1.21
If PLS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting upside of 4.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.8, implying annual growth of -67.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 97.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.3, implying annual growth of 303.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR    SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $10.81

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SFR)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews fundamentals for base metals and electric vehicle materials and updates forecasts for relevant stocks under research coverage.

The broker increases its near-term nickel and zinc price forecasts to US$7.71/lb and US$1.25/lb, respectively, and lowers the near-term cobalt price to US$12.50/lb, and to US$13.61/lb for both 2025 and 2026.

The near-term lithium price forecasts for spodumene and chemicals fall by -9% and -14%, respectively.

For Sandfire Resources, the broker anticipate fairly flat 1Q production, with lower cost driving cashflow of $37m.

The $11 target and Buy rating are maintained.

This report was published on October 15, 2024.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $10.81 Difference: $0.19
If SFR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.38, suggesting downside of -14.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.56 cents and EPS of 69.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 15.12 cents and EPS of 93.71 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.3, implying annual growth of 27.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYA    SAYONA MINING LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.04

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SYA)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews fundamentals for base metals and electric vehicle materials and updates forecasts for relevant stocks under research coverage.

The broker increases its near-term nickel and zinc price forecasts to US$7.71/lb and US$1.25/lb, respectively, and lowers the near-term cobalt price to US$12.50/lb, and to US$13.61/lb for both 2025 and 2026.

The near-term lithium price forecasts for spodumene and chemicals fall by -9% and -14%, respectively.

For Sayona Mining’s upcoming 1Q result, Canaccord believes the market focus will be on the cash balance. The broker forecasts $84m.

The Speculative Buy rating and 5c target are maintained.

This report was published on October 15, 2024.

Target price is $0.05 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.014
If SYA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TCG    TURACO GOLD LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.36

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TCG)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Turaco Gold has returned strong intercepts at the Herman mine in six of the seven diamond drill holes completed over a 300m strike at the Afema Gold Project located in southeastern Cote d’Ivoire.

As per Canaccord Genuity, at Herman, management has observed the same alteration style as that seen at the company’s nearby Woulo Woulo deposit where a 1.25moz maiden resource was recently declared.

The Speculative Buy rating and 70c target are maintained.

This report was published on October 15, 2024.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.34
If TCG meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 94% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLX    TELIX PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $21.23

Wilsons rates ((TLX)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons takes a deep dive into Telix Pharmaceuticals’ glioma assets since the company IPO’ed with an estimated total addressable market of US$3.18bn for TLX101 which is targeting approval in recurrent glioblastoma initially before addressing newly diagnosed disease.

The broker believes Telix Pharmaceuticals is setting up its glioma therapies PiXCLARA and TLX01 as a “re-run” of the US prostate cancer market with PSMA,

Overweight retained. Target price is upgraded 14% to $25.

This report was published on October 16, 2024.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $21.23 Difference: $3.77
If TLX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 109.43.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 93.52.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPG    TPG TELECOM LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.85

Goldman Sachs rates ((TPG)) as Sell (5) –

TPG Telecom announced the proposed sale of its fibre network assets and enterprise, government and wholesale fixed business (including Vision Network) to Vocus for up to $5.25bn with an expected completion date in 2H25, subject to regulatory approval.

Goldman Sachs notes the proceeds will be employed to retire debt and depending on the final balance sheet leverage, a special un-franked dividend could be paid.

The broker remains Sell rated with a $4.40 target price. Earnings forecasts do not include the proposed transaction.

This report was published on October 14, 2024.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.85 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If TPG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting downside of -0.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of 490.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.0, implying annual growth of 47.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((TPG)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden observes the proposed sale of TPG Telecom’s fibre and fixed enterprise government and wholesale assets to Vocus for $4.65bn-$4.75bn with up to $250m in contingent consideration. Completion is expected in 2H25 and subject to regulatory approvals.

As per the broker, management is planning to employ the funds to lower debt levels with an additional excess of cash to return to shareholders via a circa 74c or 79c special dividend per share.

An Overweight rating is retained with $5.25 target price. Earnings forecasts do not yet reflect the transaction.

This report was published on October 14, 2024.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.85 Difference: $0.4
If TPG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting downside of -0.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of 490.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 15.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.0, implying annual growth of 47.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TTM    TITAN MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.45

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TTM)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

A drilling program is set to commence at Titan Minerals’ Dynasty Gold project in Ecuador following confirmation of surface mineralisation over the entire nine-kilometre epithermal corridor, explains Canaccord Genuity.

The program will target lateral and depth extensions in the resource as well as new exploration targets, explains the broker.

Canaccord Genuity highlights Dynasty offers one of the highest grade open-pit options on the ASX.

The broker maintains a $1.30 target and Speculative Buy rating.

This report was published on October 15, 2024.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.85
If TTM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 189% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TYR    TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.81

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TYR)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity initiates coverage with a Buy rating for Tyro Payments, the fifth-largest merchant acquiring bank in Australia which provides payment solutions to 71,000 merchants via more than 115,000 terminals. A target of $1.65 is set.

Recently moving into profitability, Tyro Payments has reported a five-year gross profit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20%, notes the broker. Management targets a FY26 EBITDA/gross profit margin of 29% on gross profit growth of 11%.

Uniquely, the company has a banking licence and is the only specialised payment provider in Australia able to provide its own banking products, including interest-bearing deposits and loans, highlights Canaccord.

This report was published on October 15, 2024.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.835
If TYR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 102% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 85.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.0, implying annual growth of -38.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.6, implying annual growth of 53.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WEB    WEB TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $4.46

Goldman Sachs rates ((WEB)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs lowers earnings estimates on the back of WEB Travel’s profit warning which results in a decline of forecast revenues/EBITDA and EPS by -8 to -10%, -18% to -26%, and -21% to -33%, respectively.

The analyst observes an increase in structural competition in Europe with a rise in volume-based incentives, resulting in a decline in revenue margin to 6.5% versus 7.3% previously.

Buy rating with a $6.70 target price, down from $8.20.

This report was published on October 14, 2024.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $4.46 Difference: $2.24
If WEB meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.36, suggesting upside of 42.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.4, implying annual growth of 29.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of 37.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((WEB)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden downgrades FY25 EBITDA forecasts by -15% as a results of WEB Travel’s reduced FY25 guidance and longer-term revenue targets.

This results in a fall of -22% for FY25 EPS estimate and -32% decline in compound average EPS growth between FY25 to FY29.

The analyst points to the weak revenue margin at circa 6.54% in 1H25 against guidance of around 7% at the AGM. The revised terminal guidance is circa 6.5% compared to previous guidance at 7%-7.5%.

Jarden believes part of the problem is structural, with competitive pressures rising in Europe.

An Overweight rating remains with target price lowered to $7.10 from $7.70.

This report was published on October 14, 2024.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $4.46 Difference: $2.64
If WEB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.36, suggesting upside of 42.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.4, implying annual growth of 29.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 24.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of 37.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((WEB)) as Overweight (1) –

WEB Travel reported disappointing preliminary 1H25 results, Wilsons highlights, with mixed outcomes as total transaction values and booking growth met the AGM update but the revenue margin was guided lower to circa 6.4%. 

The broker notes this is the third downgrade in 2024. Contrary to management’s belief the margin will stabilise, Wilsons is more circumspect and revises down the forecast margin to 6.2% in FY26 and to 6% in FY27.

The broker lowers forecast EBITDA between FY25 to FY27 by -40% to -44%.

Wilsons retains an Overweight rating. Target price is lowered to $5.17.

This report was published on October 16, 2024.

Target price is $5.17 Current Price is $4.46 Difference: $0.71
If WEB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.36, suggesting upside of 42.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.4, implying annual growth of 29.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of 37.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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