Daily Market Reports | Oct 17 2024
An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.
In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.
One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.
Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.
Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.
The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
29M AIA ALD ALK (2) ASB BAP BBN CNB COE CYL DMP EVN EVT FWD HGO HUB (3) IGO LTR MAC MLX NIC NXL ORA ORI PLL PLS SFR SYA TCG TLX TPG (2) TTM TYR WEB (3)
29M 29METALS LIMITED
Copper - Overnight Price: $0.49
Canaccord Genuity rates ((29M)) as Sell (5) -
Canaccord Genuity reviews fundamentals for base metals and electric vehicle materials and updates forecasts for relevant stocks under research coverage.
The broker increases its near-term nickel and zinc price forecasts to US$7.71/lb and US$1.25/lb, respectively, and lowers the near-term cobalt price to US$12.50/lb, and to US$13.61/lb for both 2025 and 2026.
The near-term lithium price forecasts for spodumene and chemicals fall by -9% and -14%, respectively.
For 29Metals, the target rises to 35c from 32c on higher zinc pricing and model adjustments, explains the broker. Sell.
This report was published on October 15, 2024.
Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.53, suggesting upside of 6.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents.
How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is -11.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.
How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.4.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AIA AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities - Overnight Price: $6.70
Jarden rates ((AIA)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) -
Auckland International Airport has completed a NZ$1.4bn capital raising which Jarden views as sufficient to support the company's NZ$6.6bn planned aeronautical investment program and capex, with the NZ Commerce Commission's draft PSE4 pricing report also supportive.
The company has signed an -NZ$800m contract for the development of the domestic jet terminal building as part of the NZ$2.2bn project.
Jarden raises net profit forecasts by 8% to 12% for FY25 to FY27 on the back of lower interest expenses. EPS estimates are essentially unchanged for FY26/FY27.
Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral with a higher target price of NZ$7.79, up from NZ$7.59.
This report was published on October 14, 2024.
Current Price is $6.70. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.71 cents and EPS of 18.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.13.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.7.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 14.73 cents and EPS of 21.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.64.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of 8.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.8.
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ALD AMPOL LIMITED
Consumer Products & Services - Overnight Price: $28.99
Goldman Sachs rates ((ALD)) as Neutral (3) -
Goldman Sachs observes a much lower than expected Lytton gross profit in 3Q24 compared to expectations, resulting from extended maintenance on the catalytic cracker.
The analyst points to the extended downtime as the reason for a gross margin of only US$1.48/bbl.
Capex is expected to decline by -$50m in 2025.
Target declines -2% to $32.30. Neutral rating with a preference for Viva Energy Group ((VEA)).
This report was published on October 16, 2024.
Target price is $32.30 Current Price is $28.99 Difference: $3.31
If ALD meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.96, suggesting upside of 12.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 114.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.43.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.3, implying annual growth of -37.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 97.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 114.00 cents and EPS of 165.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.57.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 209.0, implying annual growth of 45.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ALK ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED
Gold & Silver - Overnight Price: $0.53
Moelis rates ((ALK)) as Buy (1) -
Alkane Resources reported better than expected 1Q25 results, Moelis notes, with gold production above estimates, lower all-in-sustaining costs and higher gold sales.
Management reiterated FY25 production guidance.
The broker highlights Roswell was the star where grades came in around 22% higher than expectations. There is still upside grade potential from Roswell.
The decline in the stock's share price compared to gold peers reflects the extended capital program at Tomingley, the broker surmises.
Target price lifts to 75c from 70c with an ongoing Buy rating.
This report was published on October 14, 2024.
Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.22
If ALK meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.93.
Forecast for FY26:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.07.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Petra Capital rates ((ALK)) as Buy (1) -
Petra Capital notes the underground Roswell operations provided for a solid 1Q25 quarterly report from Alkane Resources.
Gold production advanced 6% on the quarter with lower than forecast all-in-sustaining costs.
The September quarter reflected the highest production in two years, the analyst highlights. Roswell is expected to underpin a strong annual production of 73koz, Petra Capital estimates, versus 57koz in FY24.
Target price lifts to $1.04 from $1 with a Buy rating.
This report was published on October 16, 2024.
Target price is $1.04 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.51
If ALK meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.14.
Forecast for FY26:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.45.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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