Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Oct 24, 2024

This story features ACROW LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ACF

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ACF   AMP   ARB   BPT (3)   DUG   EVT   FLT (2)   GMD   HGO (2)   HLS   IDX   LGP   OBM (2)   OFX   PPT   S32   SHL   STO (2)   TWE  

ACF    ACROW LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $1.08

Moelis rates ((ACF)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Moelis initiates coverage of Acrow with a Buy rating and $1.08 target price.

The company is a major framework and access operator including formwork and scaffolding with 15 branches, and a 400-person workforce across Australia.

Infrastructure and civil projects are expected to act as earnings tailwinds for Acrow.  Moelis forecasts compound average EPS growth of 9.5% for FY24 to FY26.

The stock is seen as having a reasonable valuation. Ongoing momentum is anticipated from record hire revenue and pipeline infrastructure projects.

Buy. Target $1.08.

This report was published on October 18, 2024.

Target price is $1.08 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If ACF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.28, suggesting upside of 18.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.1, implying annual growth of 36.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.80 cents and EPS of 12.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.5, implying annual growth of 3.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMP    AMP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $1.44

Jarden rates ((AMP)) as Neutral (3) –

Third quarter flows for AMP broadly matched Jarden’s forecasts across the key Australian Wealth Management (AWM) and Bank divisions.

While lowering outer year forecasts for net interest margin (NIM) for the Bank to better reflect continued competition, the broker highlights a potential inflection point for AWM flows in the next 12 months based on an improving trajectory.

The Neutral rating and $1.35 target are unchanged.

This report was published on October 18, 2024.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: minus $0.085 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting downside of -0.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 9.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of 1106.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 11.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.9, implying annual growth of 30.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARB    ARB CORPORATION LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $42.18

Goldman Sachs rates ((ARB)) as Neutral (3) –

ARB Corp’s AGM trading update revealed a weaker start to sales for FY25, Goldman Sachs observes, at 6.5%, which is below consensus and the broker’s forecasts.

Australian aftermarket’s 5.5% growth was below expectations and OEM sales’ decline of -2% was well below the analyst’s estimate of 12.1% growth and consensus at 13% growth.

Net profit for 1Q25 was also down year-on-year from impacts in labour, transaction costs and investments.

The stock is Neutral rated with a $40 target price.

This report was published on October 17, 2024.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $42.18 Difference: minus $2.18 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $43.30, suggesting upside of 2.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 140.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.7, implying annual growth of 8.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 153.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 152.2, implying annual growth of 12.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.28

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BPT)) as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) –

Canaccord Genuity highlights Beach Energy reported a “solid” 1Q25 result, compared to a lacklustre previous nine months.

Production rose 10% and sales revenue grew 4% on the previous quarter to $427m. Net debt declined by -$28m and Waitsia guidance was retained. First gas is anticipated in early 2025.

Beach Energy is upgraded to Hold from Sell on valuation grounds with an unchanged target price of $1.25.

This report was published on October 18, 2024.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: minus $0.035 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.45, suggesting upside of 12.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 13.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of 22.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((BPT)) as Overweight (2) –

While September quarter results for Beach Energy were in line with Jarden’s forecasts, construction at Waitsia remains challenged. Further delays can’t be discounted, but the joint venture is sending in its own staff to keep the project on schedule, explain the analysts.

Production for Q1 of 5.2mmboe was 10% higher than in the prior quarter, and beat the consensus forecast by 4%, while matching the broker’s estimate.

An average of $10.30/GJ for the realised gas price was in line with the prior quarter and also in line with forecasts by consensus and Jarden.

The Overweight rating is retained, and the target edges up to $1.35 from $1.34.

This report was published on October 21, 2024.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.065
If BPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.45, suggesting upside of 12.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 16.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 26.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of 22.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((BPT)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons highlights Beach Energy reported 1Q25 production, 4% above consensus and internal estimates. Revenue advanced 5% which was also better than anticipated.

Waitsia timing and capex guidance remain unchanged while the Otway gas plant produced 24% more on the quarter because of Enterprise volumes. Bass basin produced 81% more on the quarter due to the intervention program.

Wilsons forecasts FY25 production at 21,55mmboe, a lift of 5%. This stands at the upper end of guidance, assuming no change in Waitsia timing.

No change to Overweight rating and $1.66 target price.

This report was published on October 21, 2024.

Target price is $1.66 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.375
If BPT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.45, suggesting upside of 12.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.90 cents and EPS of 19.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 25.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of 22.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DUG    DUG TECHNOLOGY LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $1.89

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DUG)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity highlights the $30m placement and $5m share purchase plan at $1.90 for Dug Technology to fund data centre infrastructure in Houston, Middle East working capital alongside developing sales and supply chains for DUG Nomad.

On the back of 1Q25 trading update, the broker expects 11% sales revenue growth for FY25 versus 16%, previously, which means the next three quarters’ revenue growth will need to come in at 13% and 2H25 at 20% on a year earlier.

FY25 EBITDA margins remain at the guided 30% with a 2H25 weighting to 36%.

Buy rating. Target price falls to $3.20 from $3.50 accounting for the capital raising.

This report was published on October 18, 2024.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: $1.31
If DUG meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 189.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.25.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVT    EVT LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $11.00

Jarden rates ((EVT)) as Buy (1) –

EVT Ltd’s 1Q Hotel earnings were robust while Thredbo’s were weak, observes Jarden, as management flagged at FY24 results. Overall, 1Q earnings (EBITDA) fell by -30.2% year-on-year, but only by -4% compared to Q1 FY19.

When the broker assumes admissions recover to 90% of FY19 levels by FY27, Jarden’s estimate for total shareholder returns increases to 35%. This scenario conservatively ignores management’s success in increasing yield per admit, note the analysts.

The broker is upbeat on the outlook citing two of the company’s three segments are at cyclical lows for earnings and these are expected to improve, while cinemas’ box office profile is looking increasingly positive.

Buy rated. The target falls to $12.29 from $12.46.

This report was published on October 21, 2024.

Target price is $12.29 Current Price is $11.00 Difference: $1.29
If EVT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 21.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.93.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 33.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.45.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FLT    FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $16.37

Jarden rates ((FLT)) as Buy (1) –

When Flight Centre Travel’s Q1 update is viewed in combination with Web Travel’s ((WEB)) recent update, Jarden believes it would be incorrect to conclude the competitive backdrop is getting tougher.

Management stated Q1 underlying pre-tax profit was up ‘marginally’ on the $63m in the previous corresponding period.

The broker believes margins for the group will improve but not to the extent of achieving the 2% stretch profit (PBT) margin target.

One quarter does not establish a trend, the analysts remind investors, highlighting the business remains a leaner, higher return on invested capital (ROIC) business post covid, with potential upside from market share gains

Target falls to $23.70 from $24.60. Buy retained.

This report was published on October 21, 2024.

Target price is $23.70 Current Price is $16.37 Difference: $7.33
If FLT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $23.81, suggesting upside of 45.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 75.00 cents and EPS of 130.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 129.1, implying annual growth of 102.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 94.00 cents and EPS of 150.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.1, implying annual growth of 14.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((FLT)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons highlights a “disappointing” trading update from Flight Centre Travel with airfare deflation having a more pronounced impact and tailwinds from corporate and higher-growth leisure segments not offsetting the global travel cycle.

The broker lowers earnings estimates by -14% for FY25 and FY26 due to changes in corporate segment expectations.

Target price falls by -22% to $22.29 as the valuation multiple ascribed contracts to 16x from 20x, in line with the long-term average. Overweight rating unchanged.

This report was published on October 21, 2024.

Target price is $22.29 Current Price is $16.37 Difference: $5.92
If FLT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $23.81, suggesting upside of 45.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.60 cents and EPS of 122.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 129.1, implying annual growth of 102.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 35.30 cents and EPS of 141.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.1, implying annual growth of 14.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMD    GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.56

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GMD)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity observes Genesis Minerals reported 1Q25 production which was in line with expectations at 36koz. All-in-sustaining-costs fell -3% on the June quarter and met forecasts.

Cash and bullion declined by -$10m to $163m. The analyst notes the Laverton mill restarted six months earlier than the five-year plan which was announced March 2024.

Buy rating unchanged with a higher target price of $3.80 from $3.75.

This report was published on October 17, 2024.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $1.24
If GMD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.62, suggesting upside of 2.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 133.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of 3.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HGO    HILLGROVE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $0.07

Canaccord Genuity rates ((HGO)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity highlights a maiden ore reserve at Kanmantoo of 2.8mt at 0.91% of copper and 0.15g/t gold for Hillgrove Resources.

The broker believes the update validates the company’s operational plan to increase mine life including an extension beyond the five-years currently assumed, as likely.

Speculative Buy rating and 10c target remain.

This report was published on October 18, 2024.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.034
If HGO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.30.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((HGO)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons observes a substantial increase in the mineral resource base for Hillgrove Resources, almost doubling the copper from under 80kt to around 150kt.

Since initiating coverage of the stock six weeks ago, the analyst notes the share price has risen over 25%, but remains relatively unknown to investors regarding the “rebirth” of the Kanmantoo operation, as an existing copper producer.

The broker stresses the “very high potential” for resource upgrades and resulting mine life expansion. The latest announcement is seen as just the start of an upgrade resource cycle with ongoing potential in the future.

Wilsons reiterates an Overweight rating and 8c target price.

This report was published on October 18, 2024.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.014
If HGO meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.71.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLS    HEALIUS LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $1.69

Jarden rates ((HLS)) as Neutral (3) –

Channel checks conducted by Jarden indicate that September was another very strong month for the diagnostics space following the strength of the July and August Medicare data, which augers well for upcoming AGM’s.

The broker’s key pick in the ASX Diagnostics sector is Integral Diagnostics aided by the proposed merger with Capitol Health ((CAJ)) and the deregulation of MRI licences.

For Healius, the $1.67 target and Neutral rating are maintained.

This report was published on October 21, 2024.

Target price is $1.67 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If HLS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.50, suggesting downside of -11.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 65.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.8, implying annual growth of 87.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IDX    INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $3.11

Jarden rates ((IDX)) as Overweight (2) –

Channel checks conducted by Jarden indicate that September was another very strong month for the diagnostics space following the strength of the July and August Medicare data, which augers well for upcoming AGM’s.

The broker’s key pick in the ASX Diagnostics sector is Integral Diagnostics aided by the proposed merger with Capitol Health ((CAJ)) and the deregulation of MRI licences.

For Integral Diagnostics, the $3.67 target and Overweight rating are maintained.

This report was published on October 21, 2024.

Target price is $3.67 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.56
If IDX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.70 cents and EPS of 10.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.49.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.80 cents and EPS of 14.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.01.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LGP    LITTLE GREEN PHARMA LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.14

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LGP)) as Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes 1Q25 results for Little Green Pharma could be considered a “watershed” moment, whereby the company reported revenue growth, falling operating expenses and its first positive free cash flow.

These results support the de-risking of the stock, resulting in the analyst lifting revenue and margin forecasts with the elimination of a net debt position.

Target price is raised to 21c from 17c. The stock is upgraded to Speculative Buy from Hold.

This report was published on October 21, 2024.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.065
If LGP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.71.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.33.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OBM    ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.89

Canaccord Genuity rates ((OBM)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Ora Banda Mining reported 1Q25 production of 24.3koz which came in above Canaccord Genuity’s forecast. All-in-sustaining-costs were better than anticipated and down -21% on the previous quarter.

Management retained FY25 guidance for production and costs. 

Incorporating the quarterly update the analyst raises FY25 EBITDA estimate by 7% and net profit after tax by 9%.

Speculative Buy rating remains. Target price rises to 85c from 74c.

This report was published on October 17, 2024.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If OBM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((OBM)) as Hold (3) –

Moelis believes Ora Banda Mining reported “strong” 1Q25 results. Costs were lower than expected but still outside the guidance range due to one-off items. Riverina started steady state production which is highlighted as a milestone for the company.

The broker believes the current share price is either discounting sustained higher gold prices, above $4000/oz or production output of over 150koz per annum, which is possible but relies on removal of any delivery and price risks.

Target price lifts 21% to 81c from 67c. No change to Hold rating.

This report was published on October 20, 2024.

Target price is $0.81 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If OBM meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.87.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.90.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OFX    OFX GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $1.36

Canaccord Genuity rates ((OFX)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity highlights OFX Group announced an unexpected trading update with an “unprecedented” decline in average transaction value of -15% in 1H25 with the UK falling -22% and Canada by -7%.

The broker notes the weakness is more specific to September,  less so for August and relates to the expected decline in US interest rates.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -9% in FY25 and FY26.

Target price slips to $2.20 from $2.60. No change to Buy rating.

This report was published on October 18, 2024.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.84
If OFX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.46.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.77.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPT    PERPETUAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $20.43

Jarden rates ((PPT)) as Overweight (2) –

Perpetual’s 1Q funds under management (FUM) in the Asset Management division beat Jarden’s forecast by 1.3%. FUM in Australia was a 6% beat, the Americas was broadly in line, while Europe and the UK (EUKA) missed by -3.4%.

New CEO Bernard Reilly highlighted the need to “right size the cost base”, noting management “can go further than” the reiterated -$25-35m per annum cost savings.

The broker’s target price for Perpetual rises to $22.70 from $22.35. Overweight.

This report was published on October 18, 2024.

Target price is $22.70 Current Price is $20.43 Difference: $2.27
If PPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.70, suggesting upside of 11.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 96.70 cents and EPS of 171.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 174.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 108.50 cents and EPS of 193.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 182.0, implying annual growth of 4.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 129.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32    SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $3.65

Canaccord Genuity rates ((S32)) as Sell (5) –

Canaccord Genuity highlights “mixed” results for South32’s 1Q25 earnings report. Alumina, silver, zinc and now divested met coal were below expectations, aluminum, copper, nickel and manganese ore were all in line with forecasts.

The company maintained guidance across all aspects of the business. The analyst assesses this quarter as “neutral to negative”. A strong balance sheet features post the IMC sale, but the earnings base has shrunk at a time when capex needs are rising.

US$123m was spent at Hermosa, above the expected run-rate and -US$188m 1H25 expectation.

No change to Sell rating and $2.25 target price.

This report was published on October 21, 2024.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: minus $1.4 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 5.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.41 cents and EPS of 8.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.61 cents and EPS of 11.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.2, implying annual growth of 28.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL    SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $27.15

Jarden rates ((SHL)) as Neutral (3) –

Channel checks conducted by Jarden indicate that September was another very strong month for the diagnostics space following the strength of the July and August Medicare data, which augers well for upcoming AGM’s.

The broker’s key pick in the ASX Diagnostics sector is Integral Diagnostics aided by the proposed merger with Capitol Health ((CAJ)) and the deregulation of MRI licences.

For Sonic Healthcare, the $25.88 target and Neutral rating are maintained.

This report was published on October 21, 2024.

Target price is $25.88 Current Price is $27.15 Difference: minus $1.27 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $27.70, suggesting upside of 2.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 103.00 cents and EPS of 108.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.9, implying annual growth of 1.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 108.20 cents and EPS of 130.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 124.9, implying annual growth of 14.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO    SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $6.94

Goldman Sachs rates ((STO)) as Buy (1) –

Santos reported 3Q2024 results. Goldman Sachs observes production was 4% higher than expected and sales were in line.

The company announced a -US$300m capex rise for Pikka Phase 1 which equals around 1% of the estimated net asset value. The increase is attributed to inflation and pipelays. First production may move forward to early Dec 2025, although the broker is targeting 2Q2026.

Barossa is on track to meet first production in 3Q2025 and currently within budget. Moomba carbon capture and storage began in September.

Target falls to $7.90 from $8,  No change to Buy rating.

This report was published on October 17, 2024.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $6.94 Difference: $0.96
If STO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.15, suggesting upside of 17.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 33.22 cents and EPS of 58.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.69 cents and EPS of 39.26 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.8, implying annual growth of -3.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((STO)) as Overweight (2) –

After reviewing in-line 3Q results for Santos, Jarden suggests the key update was confirmation of a 20% capex increase at Pikka Phase 1, thereby reducing the broker’s target to $7.90 from $8.00.

The Overweight rating is kept by the broker in anticipation free cash flow (FCF) will turnaround sharply in the next year courtesy of start ups at both Pikka and Barossa LNG.

This report was published on October 18, 2024.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $6.94 Difference: $0.96
If STO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.15, suggesting upside of 17.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 33.53 cents and EPS of 56.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.50 cents and EPS of 48.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.8, implying annual growth of -3.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE    TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $11.85

Jarden rates ((TWE)) as Buy (1) –

The AGM update by Treasury Wine Estates revealed few surprises, observes Jarden, and FY25 guidance was maintained. It’s felt management is executing well and the current valuation is seen as compelling based on three-year guidance. Buy.

The mooted Commercial sale should deliver a net positive cash flow outcome, suggests the broker, and the decision to combine the global Premium portfolio provides scope to demerge in time. 

Target price falls to $14.10 from $14.20.

This report was published on October 18, 2024.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $11.85 Difference: $2.25
If TWE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.71, suggesting upside of 15.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 62.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.7, implying annual growth of 385.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 74.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.5, implying annual growth of 15.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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