Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Nov 12, 2024

This story features ALLIGATOR ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AGE

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AGE   APE   AVA   BMN   BRG (2)   BSL   CEH   CKF   CNB   COE   COI   CRD   CVN   DHG   DMP   DRE   DUR   GLL   HVN   JBH   JHX   LNW   LOV   NAB   NEC   NEU (2)   NHF   NXG   PER   PFP   PSC   SDF   SUN (2)   SWM   TLX  

AGE    ALLIGATOR ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $0.04

Petra Capital rates ((AGE)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital highlights ASX uranium equities are down year-to-date compared to the U308 contract price which has risen 18% on low volumes.

The broker believes uranium stocks have the potential to rally with any uranium spot price rises which is believed to be most likely given term contracting volumes need to play catch up.

In terms of new projects, Petra Capital likes Alligator Energy and Aura Energy ((AGE)) with the former continuing to develop its Samphire project in SA.

Buy rated with an 10c target price.

This report was published on August 8, 2024.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.06
If AGE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APE    EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $11.51

Canaccord Genuity rates ((APE)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity highlights October vehicle sales in Australia fell by -6.4% year-on-year, impacted by an uneven order book across brands, with Toyota, Ford, and Mitsubishi showing growth while Mazda, Hyundai, MG and Subaru are in decline.

The broker expresses cautious sentiment due to near-term cyclicality affecting Eagers Automotive’s performance, despite its leading market position.

Hold rating. Target $11 unchanged.

This report was published on November 7, 2024.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $11.51 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If APE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.87, suggesting upside of 3.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 96.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.4, implying annual growth of -16.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 87.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.0, implying annual growth of 1.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVA    AVA RISK GROUP LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $0.14

Canaccord Genuity rates ((AVA)) as Buy (1) –

Ava Risk’s 1Q25 update showed order intake of $8.9m, sustaining a strong backlog and supporting FY25 revenue guidance of $42.7$55.2m, implying a “substantially stronger” second half, Canaccord Genuity observes.

The analyst notes Detect remains the key revenue driver, estimated to contribute $29m for FY25, a 58% increase year-on-year. The pipeline for Direct applications is highlighted by the broker as over $100m in opportunities.

Management attributes AVA’s growth to improved processes, product offerings, and reduced competition. Buy rating retained with 30c target price.

This report was published on November 6, 2024.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.16
If AVA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 114% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.77.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.85 cents and EPS of 3.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.52.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BMN    BANNERMAN ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $2.85

Petra Capital rates ((BMN)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital is tactically upbeat on Bannerman Energy and believes the stock is fundamentally cheaper than its Namibian developer peer, Deep Yellow (DYL).

The Etango project has received its mining license, with all necessary permits in place and early works underway. A final investment decision is extended into 2025.

The company is a tactical preference for the broker, who sees opportunities in ASX uranium stocks, which have under-performed North American peers like Cameco.

Buy rated with a $4.51 target price.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $4.51 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $1.66
If BMN meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 285.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1425.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRG    BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $31.08

Goldman Sachs rates ((BRG)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs notes Breville Group’s positive trends from 2H24 have continued into 1H25, with growth across all three regions: the US, APAC, and Europe.

The broker forecasts 1H25 group product sales growth of 9.8% year-on-year, supported by a 10% increase in the US and APAC region, and 8.5% in Europe.

Management anticipates a potential impact from increased US tariffs on Chinese imports but has implemented measures to mitigate this by shifting production out of China, explain the analysts.

The broker expects FY25 earnings (EBITDA) to reach $200m, aligned with consensus.

Goldman Sachs reiterates a Buy rating with a target price of $34.20.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $34.20 Current Price is $31.08 Difference: $3.12
If BRG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.73, suggesting upside of 7.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 92.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 13.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 108.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.4, implying annual growth of 13.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Jarden rates ((BRG)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden notes Breville Group’s strong performance in 1H25, highlighted by robust sales across all key regions, including the US, APAC, and Europe, supported by new product launches and market expansion.

The broker observes management has successfully managed cost pressures, particularly logistics costs, which are being offset by gains from reallocation of production outside China to mitigate potential tariff impacts.

The analysts forecast FY25 earnings (EBITDA) growth of 11.5%, with expectations for continued sales momentum as the group’s presence expands in new regions, including a potential push into China.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating, citing valuation considerations, with an unchanged target price of $26.30.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $26.30 Current Price is $31.08 Difference: minus $4.78 (current price is over target).
If BRG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.73, suggesting upside of 7.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 95.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 13.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 105.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.4, implying annual growth of 13.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL    BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $21.58

Jarden rates ((BSL)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden highlights BlueScope Steel’s resilience in a challenging US steel market, as peers face weak spreads and softer demand, particularly from the auto sector.

The recent downgrades by competitors underscore BlueScope’s competitive cost structure at North Star, which benefits from proximity to key service centres, suggests the broker.

While the current environment limits short-term earnings, the analysts explain BlueScope’s debottlenecking project aims to add 300kt of capacity by FY28, supporting medium-term growth.

Jarden remains constructive on BlueScope’s long-term prospects, expecting higher earnings streams as economic conditions stabilise.

The broker retains a Neutral rating with an unchanged target price of $21.90.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $21.90 Current Price is $21.58 Difference: $0.32
If BSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.59, suggesting upside of 4.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 72.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.1, implying annual growth of -53.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 155.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 187.6, implying annual growth of 125.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CEH    COAST ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $0.45

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CEH)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes year-to-date performance for Coast Entertainment shows an 8% increase in revenue and a 49% rise in EBITDA, as announced at the AGM.

The company reported a new buyback program for 10% of its shares, following the completion of a previous buyback in August 2024.

Capital expenditure includes Rivertown’s expected December opening and a new $13-1$4m attraction, projected for late 2025.

The analyst’s forecasts for FY25 have been lowered slightly, with revenue and EBITDA reduced by -1% and -11%, respectively?.

Buy rating and 60c target remain.

This report was published on November 6, 2024.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.15
If CEH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 45.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CKF    COLLINS FOODS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $8.42

Wilsons rates ((CKF)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons assesses Yum! Brands’ 3Q24 results as broadly neutral for Collins Foods, as KFC sales trends align with Collins Foods’ August trading update.

Yum’s KFC Australia sales rose by 2%, with Europe seeing a 6% increase, though this reflects a sequential slowdown in both regions, according to the analysts.

The broker notes residual cost inflation will require Collins Foods’ same-store sales (SSS) growth to turn positive to support margin recovery.

No changes have been made to Wilsons’ earnings forecasts, with SSS for KFC Australia of -0.2% expected in 1H25, improving to 1.5% in 2H25.

Wilsons maintains an Overweight rating and a target price of $11.79.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $11.79 Current Price is $8.42 Difference: $3.37
If CKF meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.46, suggesting upside of 12.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 43.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.9, implying annual growth of -4.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 61.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of 27.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNB    CARNABY RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.39

Petra Capital rates ((CNB)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital notes significant copper sulphide intersections for Carnaby Resources from ongoing drilling at Mount Hope Central within the Greater Duchess Copper-Gold Project.

Infill drilling results include 40m at 1.9% copper and 36m at 1.4% copper from the Boomerang Lode, with additional high-grade copper from the Chalcus Lode, supporting potential for a resource update in Q1 2025, predicts the analyst.

Further drilling at the Mohawk Prospect yielded promising early-stage results, with potential expansion to be tested northwards later this month, according to the broker.

The updated resource is expected to inform a pre-feasibility study by mid-2025, as Carnaby targets open pit production by 2026, explains Petra Capital.

The broker retains a target price of $1.45. Buy.

This report was published on November 7, 2024.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $1.06
If CNB meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 272% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.80.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.58.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE    COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.17

Canaccord Genuity rates ((COE)) as Buy (1) –

Cooper Energy increased its production guidance to 6572 TJe/day from the previous 6269 TJe/day, though recent volatility at Orbost limited further upgrades.

Canaccord Genuity’s forecasts remain based on 69 TJe/day, with FY25 EBITDAX projected at $145.6m.

The broker sees potential for further production increases, with management flagging no changes to FY25 cost or capex guidance, set at -$55-63m for production expenses and -$50-60m for capex. 

No change to Buy rating and 31c target price.

This report was published on November 6, 2024.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.14
If COE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 55.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 85.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.6, implying annual growth of 271.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COI    COMET RIDGE LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $0.16

Canaccord Genuity rates ((COI)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity observes east coast gas prices fell in the September quarter, averaging $12.50/GJ, down from $13.66/GJ in the previous quarter but up 20% year-on-year.

Gas-fired power generation demand rose with Longford’s gas plant 1 scheduled to shut in November, reducing capacity to 700 TJ/day.

AEMO revoked its warnings on gas supply shortfalls, and Mineral Resources (MIN) sold its gas interests in the Perth Basin for up to $1.13bn.

Canaccord Genuity notes Comet Ridge is progressing with applications for State and Federal approvals of Mahalo North.

Hold rating and 21c target remain unchanged.

This report was published on November 6, 2024.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.05
If COI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRD    CONRAD ASIA ENERGY LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.90

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CRD)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity observes east coast gas prices fell in the September quarter, averaging $12.50/GJ, down from $13.66/GJ in the previous quarter but up 20% year-on-year.

Gas-fired power generation demand rose with Longford’s gas plant 1 scheduled to shut in November, reducing capacity to 700 TJ/day.

AEMO revoked its warnings on gas supply shortfalls, and Mineral Resources (MIN) sold its gas interests in the Perth Basin for up to $1.13bn.

The broker highlights Conrad Asia Energy’s gas sale agreement with Sembcorp which is believed will underwrite the project. A final investment decision is expected by the end of 2024.

Speculative Buy rating and $2.17 target price.

This report was published on November 6, 2024.

Target price is $2.17 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $1.27
If CRD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 141% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.48.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.66.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CVN    CARNARVON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.17

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CVN)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity observes east coast gas prices fell in the September quarter, averaging $12.50/GJ, down from $13.66/GJ in the previous quarter but up 20% year-on-year.

Gas-fired power generation demand rose with Longford’s gas plant 1 scheduled to shut in November, reducing capacity to 700 TJ/day.

AEMO revoked its warnings on gas supply shortfalls, and Mineral Resources (MIN) sold its gas interests in the Perth Basin for up to $1.13bn.

Carnarvon Energy continued to look into opportunities for the Dorado project.

Speculative Buy rating and 26c target unchanged.

This report was published on November 6, 2024.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.09
If CVN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DHG    DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $2.70

Goldman Sachs rates ((DHG)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating on Domain Holdings Australia, noting a mixed performance in 1Q25 with listings growth meeting expectations at 8%, though controllable yield was softer at 6% due to depth downgrades.

Year-on-year, depth penetration remains strong, with cost guidance retained at 8%, supporting mid-term pricing strategies and depth growth, suggest the analysts.

Challenges persist in the Developer segment amid high construction costs, impacting project approvals and contributing to the broker’s weaker yield assumptions.

Goldman Sachs adjusts FY25-27 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -1% and lowers the target price to $3.20 from $3.40.

The broker retains a Neutral rating, citing balanced risk-reward despite valuation discounts to peer REA Group ((REA)).

This report was published on November 7, 2024.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.5
If DHG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 18.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of 29.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.6, implying annual growth of 21.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DMP    DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $30.02

Jarden rates ((DMP)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden views the outlook for Domino’s Pizza Enterprises as uncertain following a recent update from new CEO Mark van Dyck, while  FY25 guidance appears challenging to achieve amid weak same-store sales growth in Asia and Europe.

The CEO outlined six priorities, including rebuilding value for stakeholders and improving franchisee partnerships, while also targeting cost improvements and EBIT margin gains across regions, particularly in France and Japan, explains the broker.

The analysts leave earnings forecasts unchanged, projecting group same-store sales (SSS) growth of -0.8% in 1H25, improving to 1.5% in 2H25, with a three-year EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% through FY28.

Jarden maintains an Overweight rating with a target price of $42.00.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $30.02 Difference: $11.98
If DMP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.73, suggesting upside of 15.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 146.00 cents and EPS of 142.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 136.6, implying annual growth of 28.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 101.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 189.00 cents and EPS of 183.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 161.3, implying annual growth of 18.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 118.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRE    DREADNOUGHT RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.02

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DRE)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Dreadnought Resources is expected to release a maiden gold resource estimate for the Star of Mangaroon prospect, targeting cash flow generation to fund further exploration, Canaccord Genuity explains.

Recent high-grade drill results at Star of Mangaroon include 2.7m at 55.5g/t Au, highlighting the prospect’s potential.

Management is considering a partnership model for open-pit mining, with processing possibly arranged through discussions with Black Cat Syniicate’s ((BC8)) Paulsens Gold Operation.

The broker values the company based on its rare earth resource, maintaining nominal value for other assets. Speculative Buy with a 5c target price.

This report was published on November 6, 2024.

Target price is $0.05 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.03
If DRE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DUR    DURATEC LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $1.60

Taylor Collison rates ((DUR)) as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (2) –

Taylor Collison initiates coverage on Duratec with an Outperform rating, noting the company’s unique position as a remediation-focused contractor within sectors such as defence, mining, and energy.

The broker suggests the defence sector operations (comprising around 40% of revenue) are a significant advantage, given the long-term government investment in Australian defence infrastructure.

Duratec’s proprietary MEnD Consulting division provides additional differentiation, suggests the analyst, enhancing margins and generating cross-selling opportunities through its durability engineering services.

Taylor Collison forecasts revenue growth supported by major contracts, including projects with Rio Tinto ((RIO)) and BHP Group ((BHP)).

It’s anticipated gross margins will improve as management decreases reliance on subcontractors in favour of internal capabilities.

The current valuation is attractive, in Taylor Collison’s view, given the industry fundamentals and the company’s growth trajectory.

Taylor Collison sets a price target of $1.87.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $1.87 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $0.27
If DUR meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.64, suggesting upside of 4.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.10 cents and EPS of 9.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of 23.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.20 cents and EPS of 10.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.5, implying annual growth of 16.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GLL    GALILEE ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $0.01

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GLL)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity observes east coast gas prices fell in the September quarter, averaging $12.50/GJ, down from $13.66/GJ in the previous quarter but up 20% year-on-year.

Gas-fired power generation demand rose with Longford’s gas plant 1 scheduled to shut in November, reducing capacity to 700 TJ/day.

AEMO revoked its warnings on gas supply shortfalls, and Mineral Resources (MIN) sold its gas interests in the Perth Basin for up to $1.13bn.

Galilee Energy announced a binding heads of agreement with Vintage Energy ((VEN)) for a merger, via a scheme of arrangement whereby Vintage will acquire all the company’s shares on issues.

Hold rating with 3c target price.

This report was published on November 6, 2024.

Target price is $0.03 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.02
If GLL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 200% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HVN    HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $4.49

Goldman Sachs rates ((HVN)) as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) –

Goldman Sachs has downgraded Harvey Norman to Sell from Neutral, reducing the target price to $4.00 from $4.50 ahead of the company’s trading update.

The downgrade is based on the broker’s expectations of market share losses in A&NZ due to increased competition from JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) and Officeworks ((WES)), as well as lower anticipated earnings.

The broker’s forecast earnings sit below consensus estimates by -8% to -13% for FY25 to FY27.

Goldman Sachs has revised valuation multiples down for A&NZ franchises and raised the cap rate for property valuation to 6.25%, citing a challenging macro environment.

This report was published on November 6, 2024.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.49 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.95, suggesting upside of 10.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of 14.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.3, implying annual growth of 9.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH    JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $85.62

Goldman Sachs rates ((JBH)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs assesses strong first-quarter results and expects ongoing market share gains for JB Hi-Fi.

Year-on-year revenue and earnings (EBITDA) forecasts for FY25-FY27 rose by between 4% to 7% and 5% to 11%, respectively, reflecting improved execution and better fixed-cost leverage, explain the analysts.

The broker raises the earnings outlook due to JB Hi-Fi Australia’s ongoing market share growth in a challenging electronics market and stable costs amid a weaker competitor landscape.

Goldman increases its target to $66.9 from $54.4 and retains a Sell rating on valuation concerns.

This report was published on November 7, 2024.

Target price is $66.90 Current Price is $85.62 Difference: minus $18.72 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $76.30, suggesting downside of -11.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 264.00 cents and EPS of 405.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 419.9, implying annual growth of 4.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 303.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 274.00 cents and EPS of 420.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 446.6, implying annual growth of 6.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 298.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX    JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $50.00

Jarden rates ((JHX)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden considers US-based competitor Louisiana-Pacific’s engineered wood siding a rising competitive threat to James Hardie Industries.

Louisiana-Pacific experienced 22% year-on-year growth in siding for the third quarter of 2024, compared to Hardie’s projected -3.2% in the US market, points out the broker.

Regardless, Jarden views Hardie as well-positioned to counter competition through its product range and investment in rebates, brand, and sales distribution.

Despite soft US conditions, Jarden expects structural undersupply in housing will provide market opportunities for both companies, particularly within the re-siding segment.

The broker retains an Overweight rating with a target price of $52.00.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $50.00 Difference: $2
If JHX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $56.81, suggesting upside of 14.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 222.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 226.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 256.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 268.3, implying annual growth of 18.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNW    LIGHT & WONDER INC

Gaming – Overnight Price: $157.29

Jarden rates ((LNW)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden anticipates a strong 3Q24 for Light & Wonder, supported by continued growth in land-based gaming and iGaming.

Land-based gaming is expected to benefit from a larger installed base, especially with Dragon Train’s 2,200 units, and strong performance in International Gaming due to a significant order from Entain, explains the broker.

The analysts expect SciPlay’s revenue to grow by 6% year-on-year, driven by gains in the Social Casino segment, with a focus on direct-to-consumer sales enhancing margins.

Jarden forecasts FY25 earnings (AEBITDA) of US$1.4bn, aligned with management’s guidance.

A Buy rating and target price of $174 are maintained.

This report was published on November 11, 2024.

Target price is $174.00 Current Price is $157.29 Difference: $16.71
If LNW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $169.20, suggesting upside of 7.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 444.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 434.4, implying annual growth of 61.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 588.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 570.1, implying annual growth of 31.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOV    LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $29.99

Jarden rates ((LOV)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden considers Lovisa Holdings a high-quality retailer but notes downside risks to consensus forecasts.

The broker suggests year-on-year revenue per store growth projections for A&NZ and Europe of 4.2% and -1.2%, respectively, may be optimistic given weak Australian foot traffic and comparable data from Pandora.

The analysts highlight potential risks if the expected reacceleration in the US store rollout does not materialise, following only eight net new stores added in the August update.

Jarden maintains its earnings forecasts but expresses caution over management’s ability to achieve store growth targets in 1H25 without substantial acceleration.

The broker retains a Neutral rating with an unchanged target price of $30.59.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $30.59 Current Price is $29.99 Difference: $0.6
If LOV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.29, suggesting upside of 10.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 90.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.6, implying annual growth of 26.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 113.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.9, implying annual growth of 23.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 99.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB    NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $39.99

Jarden rates ((NAB)) as Overweight (2) –

National Australia Bank’s FY24 was softer-than-anticipated by Jarden due to impacts from a lower net interest margin (NIM) and reduced markets income.

While business lending spreads remain solid, NAB’s NIM fell by -2bps in 2H24 to 1.70%, pressured by mortgage competition and a shift in deposit mix, explain the analysts.

Credit quality in business banking saw some stress from specific names in manufacturing and wholesale trade, though coverage remains robust, assesses the broker.

The broker lowers its FY25-26 EPS forecasts by -1.3% and -1.4%, respectively, reflecting the softer margin and higher costs.

Jarden maintains an Overweight rating with an unchanged target price of $37.00.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $39.99 Difference: minus $2.99 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $32.48, suggesting downside of -16.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 169.00 cents and EPS of 229.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 221.1, implying annual growth of -1.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 170.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 170.00 cents and EPS of 237.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 226.2, implying annual growth of 2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 173.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEC    NINE ENTERTAINMENT CO. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $1.13

Goldman Sachs rates ((NEC)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs highlights a cautious outlook for the Australian TV market following 1Q25 updates from Nine Entertainment and Seven West Media ((SWM)).

Management at Nine Entertainment expects a -10% revenue decline in Total TV for 2Q25 and has withheld prior 2H25 growth forecasts, but has reiterated FY25 cost-saving targets.

Goldman Sachs lowers FY25-27 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -5% to reflect weaker TV revenues.

The analyst maintains a preference for Nine Entertainment over Seven West Media, citing its attractive valuation and stronger balance sheet, despite ongoing structural challenges in the TV sector.

Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating with a -13% lower target of $1.65.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: $0.52
If NEC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.73, suggesting upside of 53.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 9.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 33.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 10.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.4, implying annual growth of 34.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEU    NEUREN PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $16.33

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NEU)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity points to Neuren Pharmaceuticals’ royalty income from Daybue sales for Rett syndrome reached $13.2m in 3Q2024, contributing to $37.5m year-to-date.

The broker highlights 2024 revenue guidance for Daybue, managed by Acadia Pharmaceuticals, has been narrowed to the lower end. The analyst believe this is a positive for the company.

A sales milestone of US$50m was triggered, alongside an expected US$50m from the sale of Acadia’s priority review voucher.

Canaccord Genuity emphasises Neuren Pharmaceuticals is valued primarily on Daybue, with upside potential tied to its NNZ-2591 pipeline asset, targeted for Phase III in Phelan-McDermid syndrome.

No change to Buy rating and $29 target.

This report was published on November 7, 2024.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $16.33 Difference: $12.67
If NEU meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.16.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 88.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.56.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Wilsons rates ((NEU)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons highlights a robust 3Q performance for Neuren Pharmaceuticals, noting Acadia’s Daybue sales of US$91.2m in the US, largely in line with expectations.

Growth stemmed primarily from price increases and patient titration (gradually adjusting the dose of a medication), explains the broker, while stable patient numbers supported ongoing revenue.

Wilsons anticipates Neuren will benefit from a US$50m milestone payment after surpassing US$250m in annual sales, alongside additional revenue from Acadia’s recent sale of a Priority Review Voucher for US$150m.

The broker’s forecasts for Daybue remain unchanged, while FY24 revenue estimates increase due to the voucher sale.

Wilsons maintains an Overweight rating with a revised target price of $30.94, up from $29.56.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $30.94 Current Price is $16.33 Difference: $14.61
If NEU meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 107.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.16.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 314.04.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHF    NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $6.00

Goldman Sachs rates ((NHF)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs assesses a strong start to FY25 for nib Holdings with Australian residents health insurance (ARHI) policyholder growth at 3.2% as of October, outpacing guidance.

International inbound health insurance (IIHI) growth softened to 10.8% by October, down from 14.1% in June, while New Zealand policyholder growth slowed to 0.8%, reflecting impacts from repricing initiatives, explain the analysts.

For health management initiatives, revenue from Midnight Health rose by 116.4% year-on-year to $16.2m, and Honeysuckle saw a 25.1% increase to $7.9m, with break-even expected in FY25 and FY26, respectively, highlights the broker.

Goldman Sachs raises its 12-month target price to $6.75 from $6.60, maintaining a Buy rating on nib Holding.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $6.00 Difference: $0.75
If NHF meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.05, suggesting upside of 21.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.40 cents and EPS of 38.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.9, implying annual growth of 14.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 30.30 cents and EPS of 44.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.6, implying annual growth of 8.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXG    NEXGEN ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $11.11

Petra Capital rates ((NXG)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital believes NexGen Energy is one of the few listed global uranium stocks offering sufficient liquidity to accommodate “generalist” capital inflows.

The company is one of the broker’s preferred tactical exposures, with ASX uranium stocks seen presenting an opportunity due to relative under-performance compared to North American peers like Cameco.

Buy rated with a target price of $4.51.

This report was published on November 11, 2024.

Target price is $12.15 Current Price is $11.11 Difference: $1.04
If NXG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PER    PERCHERON THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.09

Wilsons rates ((PER)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons highlights Percheron Therapeutics’ recent capital raise of $13m, ensuring funding into 2025 as the company approaches its December Phase IIb topline data readout for avicursen in non-ambulatory Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD).

Positive data could demonstrate a stabilisation in upper limb function, representing a significant de-risking catalyst for avicursen and a potential breakthrough in DMD treatment, explains the analyst.

The 48-participant trial spans 16 sites across five countries, with additional 12-month data anticipated by mid-2025 to support regulatory and market expansion, suggests the broker.

Wilsons maintains an Overweight rating and lowers the target price to 25c from 27c, reflecting recent share dilution.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.16
If PER meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 178% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.90.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.29.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PFP    PROPEL FUNERAL PARTNERS LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $5.92

Moelis rates ((PFP)) as Hold (3) –

Moelis highlights Propel Funeral Partners’ robust start to 1H FY25 was supported by material growth in comparable Australian funeral volumes and acquisitions contributing to a 13% rise in total funeral volumes year-on-year.

The broker observes the 1Q earnings (EBITDA) margin of 26.8% slightly declined from the prior comparable period yet exceeded expectations due to the volume growth.

Revenue per funeral grew by approximately 3%, consistent with long-term trends, demonstrating to the analyst pricing strength.

Moelis projects FY25 earnings (EBITDA) of $63.4m, factoring in 2% organic volume growth and ongoing contributions from recent acquisitions. Propel’s funding capacity is considered strong post-equity raise, allowing for further expansion.

The broker raises the target price to $6.20 from $6.01 and maintains a Hold rating.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.92 Difference: $0.28
If PFP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting upside of 11.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 15.60 cents and EPS of 19.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.6, implying annual growth of 38.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 17.10 cents and EPS of 21.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.8, implying annual growth of 6.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PSC    PROSPECT RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.11

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PSC)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity observes assay results from Prospect Resources’ Mumbezhi Copper Project in Zambia indicate a down dip extension of sulphide mineralisation, with notable intercepts including 36.1m at 0.95% copper and 64.3m at 0.53% copper.

The ongoing Phase 1 drilling program expanded to 8,500m and management expects additional results by 2Q2025, alongside a maiden mineral resource estimate.

A recent Zambian mining initiative is not anticipated to impact the company’s operations as an existing operator. No updates have been made to financial forecasts?, the broker notes.

Price target 30c. Speculative Buy.

This report was published on November 7, 2024.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.19
If PSC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 173% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDF    STEADFAST GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $5.56

Goldman Sachs rates ((SDF)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs notes Steadfast Group’s recent acquisition of H.W. Wood Limited and HWI France to expand its London market capabilities, with an acquisition price of approximately -$46m, funded by existing debt and free cash flow.

This transaction supports Steadfast’s guidance of $150m in acquisitions for FY25, marking halfway to its $300m overall target, note the analysts.

The acquisition strengthens the group’s London market service offering and provides additional growth potential, which the broker considers important amid potential changes in Australian merger laws.

Goldman Sachs retains a Neutral rating and a target price of $6.50.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.56 Difference: $0.94
If SDF meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.82, suggesting upside of 22.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of 36.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of 6.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN    SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $18.63

Goldman Sachs rates ((SUN)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs views Suncorp Group’s Investor Day positively, noting solid margins and targeted investments for growth, with reinsurance and capital management frameworks seen as supportive.

Year-on-year growth projections remain stable, with planned expenses of -$560m for Digital Insurer by 2027, mostly covered by capital reserves, observes the broker.

Management aims for market leadership in Home and Motor insurance and a No. 2 position in Commercial insurance by 2030, driven by brand strength and product innovation.

Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating.

The target rises to $19.20 from $18.50.

This report was published on November 7, 2024.

Target price is $19.20 Current Price is $18.63 Difference: $0.57
If SUN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $19.14, suggesting upside of 2.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 123.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.8, implying annual growth of 6.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 91.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 84.00 cents and EPS of 119.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.3, implying annual growth of 15.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Jarden rates ((SUN)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes Suncorp’s increased focus on technology modernisation and simplification as it transitions to a pure-play general insurer.

The FY25-27 strategy includes platform modernisation and AI-enabled transformation to improve costs and claims efficiencies, highlights the broker.

Management has reiterated its FY25 guidance, targeting mid-to-high single-digit growth in gross written premium (GWP) despite signs of faster-than-expected rate moderation in commercial property.

The broker also points to management’s exploration of alternative reinsurance structures to enhance stability, observing a rational reinsurance market with flat-to-down rates.

Jarden maintains an Overweight rating and a target price of $17.50.

This report was published on November 7, 2024.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $18.63 Difference: minus $1.13 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $19.14, suggesting upside of 2.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 103.50 cents and EPS of 101.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.8, implying annual growth of 6.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 91.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 114.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.3, implying annual growth of 15.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SWM    SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $0.17

Goldman Sachs rates ((SWM)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs highlights a cautious outlook for the Australian TV market following 1Q25 updates from Nine Entertainment ((NEM)) and Seven West Media.

Management at Seven West has reiterated FY25 cost-saving targets, aiming to reduce costs by -$20-30m.

Goldman Sachs lowers FY25-27 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -3%, reflecting weaker TV revenues.

The broker maintains a preference for Nine Entertainment, citing its attractive valuation and stronger balance sheet, despite ongoing structural challenges in the TV sector.

Goldman Sachs maintains a Sell rating on Seven West Media with a -7% lower target of 13c.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If SWM meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.15, suggesting downside of -13.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.7, implying annual growth of 25.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 3.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.0, implying annual growth of 8.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLX    TELIX PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $23.34

Wilsons rates ((TLX)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons notes Telix Pharmaceuticals stands to benefit from competitor Lantheus’s recent challenges, as Pylarify sales missed expectations in 3Q24 and Splash Phase III results underperformed.

Lantheus’s market share defence tactics indicate potential for Telix’s Illuccix to capture additional prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) imaging market share, particularly as Pylarify’s transitional pass-through status ends in January.

Wilsons expects Telix’s TLX007-CDx to be approved by March 2025, with a potential transitional pass-through (TPT) payment phase beginning in October, enhancing competitive advantage.

Overweight rating. Target $25.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $23.34 Difference: $1.66
If TLX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 120.31.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 102.82.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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