Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Nov 21, 2024

This story features ALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALQ

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALQ   CMM (2)   DUG   ELD   GNE   HLS   ILU   KMD (2)   ORI   PDN   PLT   RDY   RHC   RIC   SHA   SHL   STO   TNE  

ALQ    ALS LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $15.33

Jarden rates ((ALQ)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

ALS Ltd’s 1H25 core profit of $152m came in slightly ahead of consensus at $150m, driven by stable performance in Life Sciences and resilience in Commodities margins despite volatile geochemistry sampling flows, notes Jarden.

Commodities division EBIT margins remained robust at 31%, driven by larger miners contributing 70-75% of testing flows, though the broker observes sampling flow growth declined by -0.5% year-on-year.

Life Sciences achieved growth through organic expansion and contributions from recent M&A (including Nuvisan), highlights the analyst.

Jarden downgrades ALS Ltd to Neutral from Overweight, citing limited near-term earnings catalysts, and increases the target price to $14.40 from $14.25.

This report was published on November 20, 2024.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $15.33 Difference: minus $0.93 (current price is over target).
If ALQ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.35, suggesting upside of 6.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 37.40 cents and EPS of 63.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.4, implying annual growth of 2274.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 42.50 cents and EPS of 71.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.4, implying annual growth of 14.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMM    CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $6.44

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CMM)) as Buy (1) –

Capricorn Metals announced a 41% increase in reserves at the Mt Gibson Gold Project to 2.6moz, extending the life of mine (LOM) to 17 years, notes Canaccord Genuity.

Production is projected at 150koz per annum over the first 15 years at a cost (AISC) of between $1,650-$1,750/oz, with total pre-production capex of -$343m.

The updated pre-feasibility study includes higher-grade reserves and a streamlined construction timeline targeting first production in the September quarter of 2026, explain the analysts 

Canaccord Genuity raises its target price to $8.30 from $8.10 and retains a Buy rating, citing an extended mine life and improved production profile.

This report was published on November 20, 2024.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $6.44 Difference: $1.86
If CMM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.31, suggesting upside of 13.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of 44.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of -2.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((CMM)) as Buy (1) –

Capricorn Metals announced a 41% increase in reserves at the Mt Gibson Gold Project to 2.59moz, extending the life of mine (LOM) to 17.5 years, notes Jarden.

Production is expected to average 150koz per annum over the first 15 years at costs (AISC) of $1,650-$1,750/oz, note the analysts, with a focus on optimising existing pits and evaluating underground development potential.

Capital requirements include -$83m in pre-production capex and -$75m for non-sustaining growth, highlights the broker, while recent metallurgical work confirmed recoveries of 91.8%.

Jarden raises the target price to $6.96 from $6.93, citing potential upside from exploration and expedited development timelines, and retains a Buy rating.

This report was published on November 18, 2024.

Target price is $6.96 Current Price is $6.44 Difference: $0.52
If CMM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.31, suggesting upside of 13.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 34.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of 44.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 29.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of -2.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DUG    DUG TECHNOLOGY LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $1.60

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DUG)) as Buy (1) –

DUG Technology delivered FY24 revenue growth of 29% year-on-year and anticipates further growth of 11% in FY25, supported by a record sales pipeline, notes Canaccord Genuity.

The company’s Elastic MP-FWI technology has gained validation from leading players like Chevron and Shell, positioning it as a key tool for seismic reservoir management, suggests the analyst.

While quarterly performance has been volatile, management aims to achieve $8m for earnings EBITDA per quarter in 2H25 with a margin near 36%, highlights the broker, driven by pipeline conversion and increased demand for Elastic MP-FWI.

Canaccord retains a Buy rating and a $3.20 target price, viewing the recent share price sell-off as overdone.

This report was published on November 20, 2024.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $1.595
If DUG meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 99% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 160.50.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.13.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELD    ELDERS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $7.47

Wilsons rates ((ELD)) as Market Weight (3) –

FY24 earnings for Elders were negatively impacted by weak livestock prices in Q1 and agchem margin contraction, notes Wilsons.

Gross profit increased by 3% year-on-year to $638m, driven by Real Estate and Wholesale, but operating cash flow of $83m was well below prior levels due to higher working capital requirements, explain the analysts.

Management announced the -$475m acquisition of Delta Agribusiness, funded by a $246m equity raise, $190m in scrip, and $110m in debt. The transaction is expected to deliver mid-single-digit EPS accretion, improving to mid-teens post-synergies.

Wilsons raises its target price to $8.38 from $8.07, reflecting the initial expected accretion from the Delta acquisition, and maintains a Market Weight rating.

This report was published on November 20, 2024.

Target price is $8.38 Current Price is $7.47 Difference: $0.91
If ELD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.33, suggesting upside of 24.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 53.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.7, implying annual growth of 115.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 55.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.2, implying annual growth of 14.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNE    GENESIS ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $1.94

Jarden rates ((GNE)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden maintains a Buy rating for Genesis Energy and raises the target price to NZ$3.15 from NZ$3.00, citing management’s strategy to monetise assets and achieve 95% renewable generation by 2035.

The 8 by 2028 strategy is projected to add NZ$90m to earnings (EBITDA) by FY28, with operating earnings (EBITDA) expected to reach NZ$550m, notes the broker.

The strategy includes optimising thermal capacity, leveraging hydro and retail assets, and exploring renewable growth opportunities, explain the analysts.

EPS estimates are revised downward for FY25-27 due to lower thermal contributions and ongoing regulatory risks, but cashflow improvements are expected to support dividends, highlights the broker, with a potential NZ32.7c payout by FY28.

Jarden highlights the competitive value of Genesis’ hydro assets and anticipates growing investor confidence as the company transitions to renewable integration and cost-effective energy solutions.

This report was published on November 20, 2024.

Current Price is $1.94. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.24 cents and EPS of 7.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.41.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 13.70 cents and EPS of 11.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.59.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLS    HEALIUS LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $1.34

Jarden rates ((HLS)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral (4) –

The Healius AGM revealed a downgrade in the outlook for the Pathology division, with no details provided on the margin deterioration, notes Jarden.

The recent sale of Lumus Imaging, expected to complete in early 2H25, leaves management focusing on remaining operations. Stranded costs from the sale and potential funding cuts pose challenges to the earnings outlook, suggest Jarden.

Management intends to return proceeds from the Lumus sale to shareholders via a special dividend, unlocking $160m in franking credits.

The broker downgrades FY25-27 EPS forecasts by -88.7%, -47.9%, and -42.7%, respectively, and lowers the target price to $1.25 from $1.67. The rating is downgraded to Underweight from Neutral.

This report was published on November 18, 2024.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If HLS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.27, suggesting downside of -5.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 446.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.70 cents and EPS of 2.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU    ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $5.49

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ILU)) as Hold (3) –

Funding uncertainty persists for the Eneabba Rare Earth Refinery, with the Australian government yet to confirm whether it will address all, part, or none of the funding gap, which has significant implications for the project’s future, highlights Canaccord Genuity.

Without government support, the broker notes the refinery is unlikely to proceed, leading to a shift in focus toward monetising monazite stockpiles through third-party sales.

Mineral sands operations face declining reserves, with Jacinth-Ambrosia expected to conclude in 2027 unless extended, explain the analysts.

Canaccord maintains a cautious outlook, citing limited visibility on a recovery in mineral sands demand, and retains a Hold rating with a target price of $6.30.

This report was published on November 20, 2024.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.49 Difference: $0.81
If ILU meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.83, suggesting upside of 24.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.9, implying annual growth of -35.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.7, implying annual growth of 18.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KMD    KMD BRANDS LIMITED

Sports & Recreation – Overnight Price: $0.39

Canaccord Genuity rates ((KMD)) as Hold (3) –

KMD Brands’ Q1 FY25 trading update revealed a -5.8% year-on-year decline in group sales, with Rip Curl down -6.7%, Kathmandu down -2.7%, and Oboz down -8.6%, notes Canaccord Genuity.

Stronger direct-to-consumer (D2C) sales partially offset a weaker wholesale performance, particularly as the wholesale channel works through destocking for Rip Curl and Oboz, explains the broker.

The Kathmandu brand showed early signs of recovery, highlights the analyst, with gross profit up 3.6% year-on-year despite challenges in New Zealand, supported by improved Australian D2C sales and seasonal product offerings.

Canaccord retains a Hold rating and maintains the target price at 48c, citing the need for further sales improvements in the key Black Friday and Christmas periods.

This report was published on November 20, 2024.

Target price is $0.48 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.09
If KMD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 60.65.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 2.57 cents and EPS of 3.49 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.17.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((KMD)) as Overweight (2) –

KMD Brands’ 1Q25 group sales declined by -5.8% year-on-year, an improvement from the -8% decline recorded in 2H24, with direct-to-consumer sales recovering, particularly for the Kathmandu brand in Australia, notes Jarden.

Wholesale channels remained weak, with Rip Curl sales down -15% and Oboz sales down -8% year-on-year, though 2H25 forward orders suggest improving trends.

Group gross margins improved year-on-year, notes the broker, supported by clearance sales activity in August 2023, though inflationary pressures continue to pose challenges.

Jarden trims earnings forecasts for Rip Curl and Oboz, maintaining an Overweight rating for KMD and lowering the target price to NZ$0.63 from NZ$0.67, citing potential for positive momentum by 3Q25.

This report was published on November 20, 2024.

Current Price is $0.39. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.64.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 2.76 cents and EPS of 3.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.35.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORI    ORICA LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $18.07

Jarden rates ((ORI)) as Neutral (3) –

Orica’s FY24 results aligned with consensus, delivering FY24 EPS of 85.4c and management upgraded three-year return on net assets (RONA) targets to 13-15% from 12-14%, notes Jarden.

Australian domestic pricing remained strong, according to the broker, driving 11.5% year-on-year EBIT growth, and earnings (EBITDA) in FY25 are expected to benefit from re-contracting at the Burrup ammonium nitrate plant, despite rising input costs.

The balance sheet remains under-geared at 26%, and the broker anticipates a potential buyback of $400m in FY25 as part of a revised capital management framework.

Jarden maintains a Neutral rating and a target price of $18.50, citing limited catalysts in 1H25 and downside risks to FY26 earnings from slower repricing and higher costs.

This report was published on November 18, 2024.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $18.07 Difference: $0.43
If ORI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.84, suggesting upside of 15.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 55.20 cents and EPS of 99.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.5, implying annual growth of -10.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 58.20 cents and EPS of 105.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 115.0, implying annual growth of 15.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PDN    PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $7.81

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PDN)) as Buy (1) –

Paladin Energy has received an extension for the national security review of its proposed acquisition of Fission Uranium, with a new conclusion date set for 30 December, notes Canaccord Genuity.

The broker highlights potential valuation implications, as the transaction includes Fission’s PLS development project and a cash balance of CAD146m.

If the acquisition does not proceed, Canaccord’s valuation for Paladin would decrease to $12.00 per share from $15.20.

The 2026 production outlook remains supported by progress at the Langer Heinrich mine, a critical component of Paladin’s growth strategy, notes the analyst.

Canaccord retains a Buy rating, citing strong long-term potential despite near-term risks.

This report was published on November 20, 2024.

Target price is $15.20 Current Price is $7.81 Difference: $7.39
If PDN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 95% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.33, suggesting upside of 57.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.7, implying annual growth of 305.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLT    PLENTI GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.74

Wilsons rates ((PLT)) as Overweight (1) –

Plenti Group reported 1H25 results with cash profit up 260% year-on-year to $5.5m and a 14% increase in its loan book to $2.3bn, driven by strong origination growth across all verticals, notes Wilsons.

The cost-to-income ratio improved by 442 basis points to 24.3%, reflecting strong operating leverage, while net credit losses remained below 1%, underscoring the quality of the loan book, explains the analyst.

The National Australia Bank (NAB) partnership is advancing, with the first NAB/Plenti product now available, and Wilsons highlights significant long-term growth potential as new products are rolled out and the partnership’s loan portfolio expands.

Wilsons retains an Overweight rating and a target price of $1.50, citing enhanced earnings quality and growth optionality from the NAB partnership.

This report was published on November 20, 2024.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.76
If PLT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 103% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RDY    READYTECH HOLDINGS LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $2.87

Wilsons rates ((RDY)) as Overweight (1) –

As part of ReadyTech’s AGM update, management lowered FY25 revenue growth guidance to “low double digits”, down from “low to mid-double digits”.

Wilsons explains delays in implementation of key client wins in the Local Government segment were behind the reduced guidance.

Management remains confident these deals will contribute in early 2025, while other segments, including Workforce Solutions and Education, are performing in line with expectations, supported by growing TAFE opportunities.

Wilsons highlights medium-term growth catalysts, including cross-sell opportunities, CPI-linked contracts, and strategic M&A, despite near-term challenges in timing.

The Overweight rating and a target price of $3.70 are retained.

This report was published on November 20, 2024.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: $0.83
If RDY meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.64.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.42.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RHC    RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $38.09

Jarden rates ((RHC)) as Neutral (3) –

Ramsay Health Care has received an update from the NHS in the UK, revising the tariff payment for April 2024 to March 2025 to 3.9% from 0.6%, with the increase back-paid to 1 April and included in Ramsay’s 1H results, notes Jarden.

The broker explains these payments will help offset inflationary pressures and improve the earnings outlook for the company’s UK operations.

Jarden highlights risks to UK funding beyond 1H25 and ongoing EBA pressures in Australia, maintaining its Neutral rating and $48.22 target price.

This report was published on November 18, 2024.

Target price is $48.22 Current Price is $38.09 Difference: $10.13
If RHC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $44.00, suggesting upside of 15.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 76.90 cents and EPS of 127.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 131.3, implying annual growth of -65.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 114.50 cents and EPS of 190.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 175.7, implying annual growth of 33.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 110.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIC    RIDLEY CORPORATION LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $2.72

Wilsons rates ((RIC)) as Overweight (1) –

Ridley Corporation’s AGM trading update aligned with Wilsons expectations for growth in FY25 across both the Bulk Stockfeeds and Packaged and Ingredients segments.

Growth in FY25 across these two segments is being driven by premiumisation in pet food and volume increases enabled by de-bottlenecking, notes the broker.

Recent acquisitions, including Carrick Feedmill and OMP, are progressing well, with Carrick volumes expected to grow from 12kt to 60kt per annum over the coming years, highlight the analysts.

Wilsons notes multiple earnings growth drivers, including volume growth in Bulk Stockfeeds, premiumisation in Ingredients, and increased pet food volumes, supported by strategic reinvestment.

The target price is raised to $2.94 from $2.54, reflecting a valuation roll-forward and increased confidence in sustained earnings growth, while the Overweight rating is retained.

This report was published on November 20, 2024.

Target price is $2.94 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: $0.22
If RIC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 14.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.50.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.59.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHA    SHAPE AUSTRALIA CORPORATION LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $2.89

Moelis rates ((SHA)) as Buy (1) –

Shape Australia reported $350m in project wins year-to-date FY25, up 20% compared to the prior corresponding period, and backlog orders increased by 5% to $480.3m, notes Moelis.

The company’s new capabilities in Modular, Design & Build, and Aftercare and Facilities Maintenance are progressing positively, feels the broker, with a major project win secured under Design & Build slated to begin construction in early-2025.

Management highlighted ongoing project delays due to rising construction costs and interest rates but remains confident in the medium-term outlook supported by a strong order book.

Moelis raises its FY25-27 EPS forecasts by 2% and increases the target price to $3.24 from $2.95, retaining a Buy rating based on management’s operational execution and strong backlog.

This report was published on November 20, 2024.

Target price is $3.24 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: $0.35
If SHA meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.30 cents and EPS of 20.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.31.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 19.90 cents and EPS of 21.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.57.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL    SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $27.79

Jarden rates ((SHL)) as Neutral (3) –

Sonic Healthcare’s AGM update highlighted robust trading for the first four months of FY25, with group revenue growth of 10% year-on-year, supported by organic growth of 5%, notes Jarden.

Australian pathology revenue grew 8%, exceeding the broker’s 1H25 forecast of 6%, while imaging revenue rose 11%, outperforming the 5% forecast.

Management reaffirmed FY25 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $1.7-1.75bn and expects the top end of this range is achievable, supported by cost management initiatives and strong operational performance.

Jarden raises EPS forecasts by 4.6% for FY25 and 3.9% for FY26 and increases the target price to $28.06 from $25.88, maintaining a Neutral rating.

This report was published on November 20, 2024.

Target price is $28.06 Current Price is $27.79 Difference: $0.27
If SHL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.70, suggesting downside of -0.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 108.70 cents and EPS of 112.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.9, implying annual growth of 1.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 112.80 cents and EPS of 135.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 124.9, implying annual growth of 14.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO    SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $6.79

Jarden rates ((STO)) as Overweight (2) –

Santos’ investor day highlighted a revised capital allocation framework prioritising shareholder returns from 2026, supported by production guidance of 100-120 mmboe and a 60% payout of all-in free cash flow (FCF), notes Jarden.

The broker raises its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 by between 2.9%-26.6% due to higher 2025 production estimates and revised cost assumptions.

The Overweight rating is maintained, with the target price marginally adjusted to $7.85 from $7.90.

This report was published on November 20, 2024.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $6.79 Difference: $1.06
If STO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.14, suggesting upside of 19.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 34.08 cents and EPS of 57.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 36.34 cents and EPS of 60.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.4, implying annual growth of -2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TNE    TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $29.36

Wilsons rates ((TNE)) as Overweight (1) –

TechnologyOne delivered FY24 results with annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $470m, up 20% year-on-year, in line with Wilsons forecast and exceeding consensus by 3%.

SaaS now represents 92% of total revenue, with the company on track to surpass its $500m ARR target by 1H25, observes the broker.

Profit before tax (PBT) grew by 18% to $153m, at the upper end of guidance, with a 50bps margin expansion to 30.2%.

The recently announced acquisition of CourseLoop is expected to contribute positively, adding $9m in ARR and expanding TechnologyOne’s education sector offering, explain the analysts.

Overweight rating. Target $22.28.

This report was published on November 20, 2024.

Target price is $22.28 Current Price is $29.36 Difference: minus $7.08 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $28.73, suggesting downside of -2.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 43.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 67.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.4, implying annual growth of 17.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 69.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 26.70 cents and EPS of 50.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 58.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.5, implying annual growth of 19.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 58.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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