Weekly Reports | Mar 21 2025
This story features CAR GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CAR
The company is included in ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300, ALL-ORDS and ALL-TECH
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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CAR GROUP LIMITED ((CAR)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden has lowered the forecast for CAR Group’s 5-year compounded annual revenue growth rate to 9% from 10% to reflect the risks from a soft macro environment, particularly in the US.
Still, the broker sees downside risks to consensus and its FY26 forecasts.
Target price cut to $33.00 from $34.60. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underweight after recent sell-off.
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ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED ((EDV)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Goldman Sachs expects Endeavour Group’s liquor business to remain under pressure due to a structural decline in per capita volume, and cyclical trade-down by consumers amid cost of living pressures.
The broker is positive about the Dan Murphy brand but thinks BWS is losing its convenience differentiator edge.
The broker lowered the group sales forecast by -1% across three years mainly due to the retail businesses losing market share. EBIT forecasts see deeper cuts with -4% for FY25 and -5% for FY26 on a lower margin forecast.
Target price drops to $4.50 from $5.10. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy.
JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC ((JHX)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Near-term macro risks, including tariff uncertainties, makes Jarden cautious of James Hardie Industries, prompting a downgrade in rating to Neutral from Overweight.
The broker believes pulp cost inflation from higher tariffs is a key operational risk, along with the increasing risk of a US recession. The broker also sees M&A as a risk, noting the company’s deal with Fermacel failed to achieve pre-acquisition forecasts.
The broker has lowered volume growth forecasts and raised input cost estimates, leading to a -2-3% decline in average earnings forecasts.
Target price lowered to $53.50 from $54.00.
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED ((NAB)) Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden thinks there’s more to it than meets the eye in Nathan Goonan’s resignation as CFO at National Australia Bank to move to the same role at Westpac ((WBC)). The broker reckons it may be an indication of other pressures at NAB, likely in business banking.
The broker is also suspicious of NAB appointing an acting head of business and private banking given the transition period between the departee and the new joinee on July 1 is only 15 days.
In a previous report, the broker highlighted pressure on banks’ CET1 from capital-intensive business/corporate lending and phasing out of hybrid capital in January 2027. This, in turn, would limit dividend payout, with the broker seeing current consensus expectations for NAB’s dividend payout ratio as too high.
The broker’s believes it may have to adjust down to the high-60s from 75%, 75% and 74% forecast for FY25/26/27 respectively.
In this report, the broker cut FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts by -2.4% and -2.9% to reflect higher margin erosion and costs, and removed the estimated 1H25 buyback. Target price cut to $30 from $38.
Rating downgraded to Underweight from Overweight reflecting uncertainties around management change.
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION ((WBC)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Westpac’s first quarter update was solid, Jarden suggests, featuring good volumes, slight margin compression and low bad debts, but weak capital generation. Looking forward, the bank has management change and a material IT transformation project to execute.
Jarden sees UNITE as an overdue but welcome comprehensive rewiring of Westpac architecture, likely involving significant execution risk and internal focus, but also sees risk of project creep, with much higher investment than has previously been indicated.
Therefore, this result, while operationally pleasing, is in Jarden’s view somewhat redundant. The broker downgrades to Underweight from Neutral on valuation. Target unchanged at $31.20.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | |||||
| 1 | CAR GROUP LIMITED | Neutral | Sell | Jarden | |
| Downgrade | |||||
| 2 | ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Goldman Sachs | |
| 3 | JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC | Neutral | Buy | Jarden | |
| 4 | NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED | Sell | Buy | Jarden | |
| 5 | WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION | Sell | Neutral | Jarden | |
Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACE | Acusensus | $1.12 | Wilsons | 1.23 | N/A | N/A |
| ASB | Austal | $4.10 | Petra Capital | 3.77 | 4.07 | -7.37% |
| CAR | CAR Group | $33.68 | Jarden | 33.00 | 34.60 | -4.62% |
| CKF | Collins Foods | $8.60 | Goldman Sachs | 8.25 | 10.00 | -17.50% |
| CRD | Conrad Asia Energy | $0.76 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.80 | 2.17 | -17.05% |
| EBR | EBR Systems | $1.89 | Wilsons | 3.50 | 1.62 | 116.05% |
| EDV | Endeavour Group | $3.94 | Goldman Sachs | 4.50 | 5.50 | -18.18% |
| GDG | Generation Development | $4.86 | Moelis | 5.92 | N/A | N/A |
| JHX | James Hardie Industries | $46.43 | Jarden | 53.50 | 54.00 | -0.93% |
| LOT | Lotus Resources | $0.20 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.34 | 0.37 | -8.11% |
| LTR | Liontown Resources | $0.70 | Goldman Sachs | 0.69 | 0.71 | -2.82% |
| Jarden | 0.67 | 0.63 | 6.35% | |||
| NAB | National Australia Bank | $33.09 | Jarden | 30.00 | 38.00 | -21.05% |
| NHC | New Hope | $4.20 | Goldman Sachs | 4.30 | 4.40 | -2.27% |
| NXG | NexGen Energy | $8.00 | Petra Capital | 14.33 | 14.10 | 1.63% |
| ORG | Origin Energy | $10.61 | Jarden | 10.30 | 10.25 | 0.49% |
| ORI | Orica | $17.49 | Goldman Sachs | 21.50 | 21.40 | 0.47% |
| PMV | Premier Investments | $21.04 | Goldman Sachs | 22.00 | 27.85 | -21.01% |
| PNR | Pantoro | $0.17 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.19 | 0.18 | 5.56% |
| PSC | Prospect Resources | $0.13 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.40 | 0.30 | 33.33% |
| SPZ | Smart Parking | $0.82 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.25 | 1.10 | 13.64% |
| SUN | Suncorp Group | $19.06 | Goldman Sachs | 22.00 | 24.67 | -10.82% |
| WBC | Westpac | $30.61 | Jarden | 31.20 | 30.00 | 4.00% |
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
More Highlights
CTM CENTAURUS METALS LIMITED
Nickel Overnight Price: $0.38
Canaccord Genuity rates ((CTM)) as Speculative Buy (1)
Centaurus Metals has been granted the installation licence for Jaguar Nickel Sulphide Project in Brazil which will allow more site preparation while it awaits the mining lease, likely in the next few months.
Canaccord Genuity notes the company is in discussion for strategic partnerships and a -10% project sell-down at the final investment decision stage (later in 2025) would leave it with a -US$360m funding gap.
The broker expects this to be bridged with a mix of equity and debt.
Target price unchanged at 80c with a Speculative Buy rating.
This report was published on March 17, 2025.
Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.425
If CTM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 113% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 46.88.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.79.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three source
EBR EBR SYSTEMS INC
Medical Equipment & Devices Overnight Price: $1.73
Wilsons rates ((EBR)) as Overweight (1)
Wilsons raised both initial and long-term average selling price assumptions for EBR Systems’ WiSE-CRT system.
The initial pricing estimate is US$45,000, up US$10,000 from the company’s IPO estimate, and the long-term pricing forecast is doubled to US$30,000.
The broker’s confidence comes from SOLVE-CRT (which evaluates WiSE’s safety) clearing the FDA’s trial and pre-approval inspections.
Target price is lifted to $3.50 from $1.62, reflecting an anticipation of FDA approval and a rise in selling price forecasts.
The broker estimates an un-risked price of up to $8.50. Overweight.
This report was published on March 18, 2025.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $1.775
If EBR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 103% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 18.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.16.
Forecast for FY26:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 20.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.22.
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RMS RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED
Gold & Silver Overnight Price: $2.19
Canaccord Genuity rates ((RMS)) as Buy (1)
Ramelius Resources and Spartan Resources ((SPR)) have entered into an agreement where Ramelius will take its stake to 100% (from 19.9%) via a combination of shares and cash.
Canaccord Genuity notes the deal is at 11% premium to Spartan’s closing share price on March 14.
If unsuccessful, Ramelius will undertake a conditional off-market takeover offer, but three shareholders owning 18.9% of the target’s equity are already favouring the scheme and the takeover offer.
The broker notes the deal would make Ramelius the largest mid-tier Australian gold producer with a market cap of $4.2bn.
The analyst’s standalone valuation for Ramelius is $3.317bn and for Spartan is $2.667bn, and the proforma valuation for the combination is $5.372bn.
Target price for Ramelius is unchanged at $2.9 and the rating remains Buy.
This report was published on March 18, 2025.
Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $0.71
If RMS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 12.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.84.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 65.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.43.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of -34.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SPZ SMART PARKING LIMITED
Hardware & Equipment Overnight Price: $0.85
Canaccord Genuity rates ((SPZ)) as Buy (1)
Following Smart Parking’s 1H25 result, Canaccord Genuity made minor changes to its core EBITDA forecasts but those increased after factoring in the acquisition of US-based Peak Parking.
The broker lifted EBITDA forecasts for FY25 and FY26 by 8% and 31% respectively, offset by share dilution. The analyst reckons the acquisition multiple was undemanding given Peak Parking’s business quality and solid revenue growth.
The broker believes the share price weakness post-acquisition provides an entry point as it was driven by macro factors.
Target price rises to $1.25 from $1.10. Buy retained.
This report was published on March 18, 2025.
Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.4
If SPZ meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.42.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.61.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TYR TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit Overnight Price: $0.76
Canaccord Genuity rates ((TYR)) as Buy (1)
Tyro Payments made a conditional takeover bid for Smartpay Holdings ((SMP)) but another global company speculated to be Shift4 Payments has also made an offer.
Smartpay has granted due diligence to both parties and has reciprocal due diligence with Tyro.
Canaccord Genuity considers the strategic rationale for the acquisition to be sound, but estimates cost synergies would need to be over $20m for the deal to be accretive as a full scrip merger at 73c Tyro share price.
The broker thinks the offer price of NZ$1.00 undervalues Smartpay and is unlikely to be accepted, but because of two offers the deal would get competitive.
Target price of $1.65 and Buy rating are unchanged.
This report was published on March 17, 2025.
Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: $0.895
If TYR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 119% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 62.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.78.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.2, implying annual growth of -34.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.25.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of 28.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CAR - CAR GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EDV - ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JHX - JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NAB - NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WBC - WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION