The Overnight Report: Big Tech Rallies On

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Momentum buyers chased stocks higher for the third day despite ongoing tariff and economic concerns. The ASX futures are up by 0.58%, can the rally hold today?

World Overnight
SPI Overnight	8033.00	+ 47.00	0.59%
S&P ASX 200	7942.50	+ 5.60	0.07%
S&P500	5776.65	+ 9.08	0.16%
Nasdaq Comp	18271.86	+ 83.26	0.46%
DJIA	42587.50	+ 4.18	0.01%
S&P500 VIX	17.15	– 0.33	– 1.89%
US 10-year yield	4.31	– 0.02	– 0.55%
USD Index	103.86	– 0.11	– 0.11%
FTSE100	8663.80	+ 25.79	0.30%
DAX30	23109.79	+ 257.13	1.13%

Good Morning,

US indices traded higher but the rally is showing signs of weakness under the surface.

What happened overnight

The major equity indices closed higher for a third consecutive day, led by Big Tech stocks, which continue to see follow-up buying and a positive momentum trade. The Nasdaq index lifted almost 0.5%, with the DJIA flat and the S&P500 eking out a small gain.

The S&P500 is now above its 200-day moving average (5,754), for those who follow the charts.

Overall, there was a negative bias under the index surface as investors and traders continue to fret about US trade policy and economic growth. Consumer Discretionary and Communications managed gains near 1% but were offset elsewhere, with Utilities, Healthcare, and Real Estate in the red.

The US Consumer Confidence Index fell for a fourth consecutive time, with the monthly consumer confidence index declining in March to 92.9, a four-year low, from an upwardly revised 100.1 in February. It was forecast to be 94.0.

The US Expectations Index fell to its lowest level (65.2) in 12 years, with worries about future employment prospects and inflation prospects driving that downturn. US sources say DOGE is creating much of the uncertainty.

New home sales increased slightly by 1.8% in February versus January, yet higher-priced homes made up a smaller percentage of sales than in the prior month.

In other housing market-related news, KB Home’s shares fell -5.2% to a 52-week low after the home builder reported below-consensus 1Q earnings and lowered its FY25 housing revenue outlook, increasing concerns about an intensifying housing market slowdown. The downgrade comes on the back of Lennar’s downbeat update last week.

Buyers turned to the safety trade, Treasuries, and the 10-yr yield dropped by two basis points to 4.31%, while the 2-yr yield dropped three basis points to 4.00%. Today’s US$69bn US 2-yr note sale met strong demand.

On the geopolitical front, the US reported Russia and Ukraine have reached a ceasefire in the Black Sea and agreed to work out processes to implement the ban on strikes against energy and infrastructure.

US retail investors buying the dip, FOMO alive and well?

The FT reported, “Individual investors have pumped almost $70bn into US stocks this year even as professional money managers are slashing their exposure to the market on fears over Donald Trump’s policies. Net inflows from retail investors into US equities and exchange-traded funds have registered $67bn in 2025, down only slightly from the $71bn spent in the final quarter of 2024, according to data provider VandaTrack.”

Commodities

-Glencore said it’s cutting planned coal production and will produce between -5 to -10m tonnes less coal than previously expected at its Cerrejn mine in Colombia.

-World crude steel production for the 69 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (worldsteel) was 144.7m tonnes in February 2025, a -3.4% decrease compared to February 2024.

-Overnight, US copper futures rose to a record high as traders stockpile ahead of the potential April 2 tariffs, as well as a shipment from Chile being halted. NAB Markets Today noted, “US Copper has gained almost 30% this year, but underlying demand is soft and there is now a large premium of about 15% for US prices compared to London prices.”

Aus: February CPI Indicator Preview from National Australia Bank

-We forecast the headline February CPI indicator fell to 2.4% year-on-year from 2.5%

-Lower fuel prices than a year ago are one factor, while volatile travel prices and electricity measurement are key uncertainties clouding interpretation of the headline

-Annual trimmed mean could slip back to 2.7% from 2.8%

-The February data will shape expectations for the full quarterly CPI on 26 April. We expect a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter trimmed mean outcome, though the risk skews to 0.7% quarter-on-quarter.

Australian Federal Budget 202526 extract from ANZ Economic Update

-In a broad sense, the underlying budget deficit across the coming budget year 2025-26 and the three subsequent forward estimate years is little changed versus the forecasts contained in the December 2024 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO). The Budget Papers show a forecast deficit of -$27.6bn (1.0% of GDP) in 2024-25 and -$42.1bn (1.5% of GDP) in 2025-26.

-In aggregate (that is, over the four years from 2025-26 to 2028-29), the cost of net policy decisions has been offset by parameter and other variations. That is, a stronger-than-expected economy lifting revenues, while on the expenses side there is a range of lower-than-expected payments.

-There is a policy centrepiece in the Budget: a modest income tax cut of -$3bn in 2026-27, rising to -$6.7bn in 2027-28, and being delivered through a reduction in the first marginal tax rate from its current 16% to 15% on 1 July 2026 and then to 14% on 1 July 2027. The design of the tax cut is such that all taxpayers will see an income tax reduction.

-Across 2024/25, 2025-26, and 2026-27 the amount of net new spending is (in aggregate) consistent with expectations. There is a little less in 2024-25 and 2025-26, and a little more in 2026-27 than we expected, but across the three years the amounts are not a surprise. While we had not anticipated the tax cuts contained in the Budget, their 1 July 2026 start date and their initial modest size mean they are within the envelope of the fiscal easing we expected in the Budget over the next few years.

-As a result, there is no direct impact on our near-term growth, trimmed mean inflation, or RBA forecasts. We expect one more rate cut from the RBA in August, although global uncertainty could see additional easing (especially if it spills over into local consumer and business confidence).

-The Budget Papers project that the fiscal position will return to balance in 2035-36, with an increase in receipts as a share of GDP, beyond the forward estimates period, closing the gap to payments.

Corporate news in Australia

-Gold Road Resources ((GOR)) received and rejected a non-binding indicative offer from Gold Fields for $3.3bn.

-Ampol ((ALD)) has forecast repair costs from ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred of -$35m.

-Glencore said it’s cutting planned coal production and will produce between 5 to 10m tonnes less coal than previously expected at its Cerrejn mine in Colombia.

-Stonepeak is in discussions to purchase Kinetic’s A&NZ bus operations, part of a $4bn sale process that is ongoing.

-Nickel Industries ((NIC)) forecasts 20% earnings growth despite flood impacts.

-Qantas Airways ((QAN)) to launch Project Sunrise, ultra long-haul flights in early 2027 with direct Sydney-London and Sydney-New York.

-Koala is preparing for an IPO roadshow to raise around $100m for a $500m valuation.

-Endeavour Group ((EDV)) executive chairman Ari Mervis is conducting a major review of Dan Murphy’s liquor stores and hundreds of pubs which may result in the break-up of the company.

On the calendar today:

-AU Feb CPI

-JP Feb PPI

-UK Feb CPI, PPI

-US Feb durable goods

-FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED ((FLT)) ex-div 11c (100%)

-TUAS LIMITED ((TUA)) earnings report

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures
Gold (oz)	3054.81	+ 13.67	0.45%
Silver (oz)	34.18	+ 0.69	2.07%
Copper (lb)	5.21	+ 0.12	2.42%
Aluminium (lb)	1.17	– 0.00	– 0.25%
Nickel (lb)	7.15	– 0.01	– 0.15%
Zinc (lb)	1.34	+ 0.01	0.93%
West Texas Crude	69.13	– 0.08	– 0.12%
Brent Crude	72.50	+ 0.07	0.10%
Iron Ore (t)	102.18	– 0.17	– 0.17%

The Australian share market over the past thirty days

Index	25 Mar 2025	Week To Date	Month To Date (Mar)	Quarter To Date (Jan-Mar)	Year To Date (2025)
S&P ASX 200 (ex-div)	7942.50	0.14%	-2.81%	-2.65%	-2.65%

BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS
CWY	Cleanaway Waste Management	Upgrade to Add from Hold	Morgans
CYL	Catalyst Metals	Upgrade to Buy from Hold	Bell Potter
DRR	Deterra Royalties	Upgrade to Buy from Neutral	Citi
FMG	Fortescue	Upgrade to Neutral from Sell	UBS
HLI	Helia Group	Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform	Macquarie
JDO	Judo Capital	Upgrade to Add from Hold	Morgans
JHX	James Hardie Industries	Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight	Morgan Stanley
		Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform	Macquarie
MVP	Medical Developments International	Downgrade to Hold from Buy	Bell Potter
NHC	New Hope	Downgrade to Neutral from Buy	Citi
NSR	National Storage REIT	Upgrade to Buy from Neutral	UBS
PMV	Premier Investments	Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy	Ord Minnett
S32	South32	Downgrade to Neutral from Buy	UBS

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

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