Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Apr 09, 2025

This story features ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALK

The company is included in ALL-ORDS

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALK   ALL   AOV (2)   ASX   BRG   CWY   D2O   FPH   GYG   KAR   LIC   LNW   LOV   MFG (2)   NXL   WDS  

ALK    ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.65

Moelis rates ((ALK)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis considers Alkane Resources’ 3Q25 production and cash outcomes to be broadly in line with its forecasts and marked a solid rebound from the December quarter.

The company reiterated FY25 production guidance of 70-80koz, and the broker believes the lower end is easily achievable given the output so far is 50.9koz. The broker’s forecast is 70.9koz.

The analyst also noted recent drilling results at Tomingley were encouraging and show potential for broader resource expansion.

Buy retained. Target price $1.00.

This report was published on April 7, 2025.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.35
If ALK meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.83.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.55.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALL    ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $59.58

Jarden rates ((ALL)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden considers the possibility of Aristocrat Leisure opting for an M&A given the US$750m buyback program is not utilised yet.

The broker is not supportive of any such potential move because it would increase the company’s investment risk, and recent M&A activity such as in the James Hardie ((JHX)) instance, has heightened concerns around strategic acquisition.

Neutral maintained. The broker will turn positive on the stock if 1H25 result surprises to the upside or share price declines.

Target price rises to $68 from $67 on updated valuation assumptions. 

This report was published on April 4, 2025.

Target price is $68.00 Current Price is $59.58 Difference: $8.42
If ALL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $77.07, suggesting upside of 27.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 90.00 cents and EPS of 266.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 266.8, implying annual growth of 30.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 89.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 297.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 296.1, implying annual growth of 11.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 99.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AOV    AMOTIV LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $7.28

Goldman Sachs rates ((AOV)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs’ notes Amotiv’s trading update was disappointing, but the commentary on the effect of US tariffs suggested minimal impact.

The company flagged the lighting, power and electrical (LPE) segment continues to experience challenges from muted Australian reseller demand, but US was strong. The 4WD segment was affected by soft new vehicle sales demand. 

The powertrain and undercar (PU) segment was performing well due to the resilience of the wear and repair markets. Regarding tariffs, the company’s current revenue exposure to the US was only 8%, and it was exploring re-sourcing, re-pricing and alternative manufacturing and supply locations.

Buy. Target unchanged at $12.20.

This report was published on April 4, 2025.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $7.28 Difference: $4.92
If AOV meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.65, suggesting upside of 65.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.8, implying annual growth of 14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.9, implying annual growth of 5.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((AOV)) as Overweight (1) –

Following Amotiv’s trading update, Wilsons has lowered earnings forecasts on weak lighting, power and electrical (LPE) demand and assumptions of margin contraction due to headwinds from tariffs and forex.

The broker has a bullish view on 4WD and SUV demand, but this is offset by weaker earnings momentum and the company’s mixed track record on M&A.

Overweight retained. Target drops to $9.39 from $12.70.

This report was published on April 7, 2025.

Target price is $9.39 Current Price is $7.28 Difference: $2.11
If AOV meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.65, suggesting upside of 65.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 81.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.8, implying annual growth of 14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 84.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.9, implying annual growth of 5.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX    ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $64.69

Goldman Sachs rates ((ASX)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs notes 3Q25 was a broadly strong quarter for ASX, but listings under performed, with total entities dropping to 2,092 from 2,116 in December.

Futures volumes rose 27% on a year earlier due to strong activity in the liquid 90-day bill, and 3-year and 10-year bonds. Cash market trading volumes were robust, and total billable cash market value cleared was up 12.8% on the previous quarter.

The broker acknowledges the company qualifies for a defensive exposure amid uncertain environment but it faces regulatory challenges that could result in more expenses.

Sell retained. Target price rises to $62 from $61.

This report was published on April 7, 2025.

Target price is $62.00 Current Price is $64.69 Difference: minus $2.69 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $63.34, suggesting downside of -2.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 221.00 cents and EPS of 255.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 260.9, implying annual growth of 6.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 219.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 228.00 cents and EPS of 260.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 266.8, implying annual growth of 2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 223.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRG    BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $26.75

Goldman Sachs rates ((BRG)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs has assessed the impact of US President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, noting it was not only higher than expected but included Breville Group’s alternative sourcing markets for US sales (other than China).

The broker estimates 49% of the company’s FY25 revenues originate largely from the US, and 40% of the group’s purchases will incur tariffs.

The analyst cut FY26-27 group sales forecasts by -1% and -2%, respectively, and lowered FY25/26/27 earnings before interest and tax forecasts by -2%/-11%/-11%, respectively.

Buy maintained. Target drops to $35.00 from $40.80.

This report was published on April 8, 2025.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $26.75 Difference: $8.25
If BRG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.64, suggesting upside of 44.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.8, implying annual growth of 12.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 97.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.6, implying annual growth of 12.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWY    CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $2.67

Jarden rates ((CWY)) as Buy (1) –

Citing Bloomberg core EPS revisions data, Jarden reckons the negative earnings momentum impacting Cleanaway Waste Management’s share price over the past year has now faded.

The broker notes the momentum has turned positive, looking ahead to FY26 estimates. The analyst expects earnings to benefit from lower interest costs, and considers the Contract Resources Group acquisition to provide strategic advantage, apart from being EPS accretive in FY27.

Buy. Target unchanged at $3.10.

This report was published on April 4, 2025.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.43
If CWY meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 18.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 9.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 26.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.20 cents and EPS of 11.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of 23.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

D2O    DUXTON WATER LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $1.38

Petra Capital rates ((D2O)) as Buy (1) –

Duxton Water has agreed with current manager Duxton Capital Australia to internalise the management team. The original management agreement is due to expire in July 2026, and a transition services agreement will now be put in place, subject to shareholder approval.

Petra Capital estimates the total payment to Duxton Capital Australia will equate to 3% of NAV post-tax, and the transition agreement amount is 29% higher than the current management fee forecast.

No changes to forecasts as the broker awaits more details in the independent expert report to be released in May. 

Buy. Target unchanged at $2.10.

This report was published on April 7, 2025.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.725
If D2O meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.40 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.55.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.70 cents and EPS of 10.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.97.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FPH    FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $31.03

Jarden rates ((FPH)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

The key change in US President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement last week that has implications for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare was nil tariff on Mexican imports and 10% tariff on NZ imports.

Jarden notes almost all of the company’s Mexico imports are compliant with United StatesMexicoCanada Agreement (USMCA), which would mean no tariff. Last month, the broker conducted an analysis on an assumption of a 25% Mexico imports tariff.

The broker’s revised estimate suggests the additional cost to the company would be NZ$30m in FY26, down from the previous analysis of NZ$100m. Factoring this into the forecasts, plus exchange rate changes, lowered the FY26 EPS estimate by -3%.

Target lifts to NZ$33.20 from NZ$30.10 on longer-term earnings upgrade and roll forward. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underweight.

This report was published on April 3, 2025.

Current Price is $31.03. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 38.69 cents and EPS of 58.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 41.88 cents and EPS of 67.27 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.4, implying annual growth of 19.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.8.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GYG    GUZMAN Y GOMEZ LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $31.10

Wilsons rates ((GYG)) as Overweight (1) –

Guzman y Gomez recorded strong same-store sales growth in its Australian business in 3Q25, up 11.1% year-on-year versus 5.9%.

Wilsons’ notes network sales was up 24% to $290m, with Australia network contributing $268m, up 23%, Singapore $17m, and Japan $2m.

The company reaffirmed FY25 guidance for 31 store openings in Australia and other key metrics.

Overweight. Target of $42.47 is under review as the broker sees scope for a modest upgrade on likely upward revision to its 8.5% FY25 same-store sales growth forecast.

This report was published on April 8, 2025.

Target price is $42.47 Current Price is $31.10 Difference: $11.37
If GYG meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $38.33, suggesting upside of 19.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 146.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 259.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 33.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 91.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 108.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 124.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR    KAROON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.31

Goldman Sachs rates ((KAR)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs notes Karoon Energy’s Brazil oil production was down 67% in March on the previous month due to a planned shutdown from March 7 until March 27.

Buy. Target price $2.09.

This report was published on April 4, 2025.

Target price is $2.09 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.78
If KAR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.22, suggesting upside of 76.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.37 cents and EPS of 24.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.9, implying annual growth of 14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LIC    LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $7.44

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LIC)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity assesses Lifestyle Communities’ 3Q25 update as positive, with unsold inventory declining to 242 homes at the end of March from 269 in December.

The company is well-advanced to generate $80-$100m from land sales and will use it to repay debt but doesn’t expect the funds until the back end of FY26.

The broker has a cautious outlook on sales ahead of Easter and the school holiday period.

Hold. Target unchanged at $8.99.

This report was published on April 8, 2025.

Target price is $8.99 Current Price is $7.44 Difference: $1.55
If LIC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.57, suggesting upside of 32.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.3, implying annual growth of -16.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 34.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.5, implying annual growth of -2.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNW    LIGHT & WONDER INC

Gaming – Overnight Price: $132.45

Jarden rates ((LNW)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden believes Light & Wonder’s decision to withdraw -150 US gaming ops. machines could lend some credence to Aristocrat Leisure’s ((ALL))  amended litigation to include Jewel of the Dragon.

While this is not a palatable scenario, the broker reckons the litigation won’t have much financial impact. The analyst is focusing on the company’s reiteration of adjusted FY25 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $1.4bn, and upside from Grover Gaming earnings growth.

The broker considers the company’s discount to Aristocrat to be excessive, following share price decline.

Buy retained. Target drops to $197 from $200.

This report was published on April 3, 2025.

Target price is $197.00 Current Price is $132.45 Difference: $64.55
If LNW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $202.60, suggesting upside of 58.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 934.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 603.9, implying annual growth of 5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1086.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 743.5, implying annual growth of 23.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOV    LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $21.94

Jarden rates ((LOV)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Jarden has assessed the impact of US tariffs on Lovisa Holdings, noting the company could take steps to mitigate margin impact.

However, it is also likely to face additional headwind from volume decline due to the impact of higher prices and falling consumer sentiment.

The broker’s scenario analysis suggests tariffs on China would lower FY25 profit before tax by -3% and by -11% in FY26.

Relocating supply chains is one of the options, but it is difficult given the lack of cost-effective suppliers near the US and with other Southeast Asian locations also impacted by tariffs.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight. Target cut to $22.87 from $29.02.

This report was published on April 6, 2025.

Target price is $22.87 Current Price is $21.94 Difference: $0.93
If LOV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.25, suggesting upside of 38.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 80.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.0, implying annual growth of 10.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 87.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.6, implying annual growth of 27.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 90.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MFG    MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $6.96

Goldman Sachs rates ((MFG)) as Neutral (3) –

Magellan Financial’s funds under management fell by $1.1bn over the March quarter due to -$0.4bn net retail outflows and -$0.7bn net institutional outflows.

Goldman Sachs notes markets have been very weak since early April and outflows have been persistent, with infrastructure flows under pressure.

The broker cut earnings estimates by up to -14% to reflect both weaker flows and weaker markets. Target cut to $8.75 from $10.20.

Neutral retained.

This report was published on April 7, 2025.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $6.96 Difference: $1.79
If MFG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.84, suggesting upside of 26.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.3, implying annual growth of -36.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.4, implying annual growth of -14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((MFG)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden notes the upcoming departure of Magellan Financial’s infrastructure portfolio manager Gerard Stack in July has started to impact flows, with the last six-month institutional net outflow averaging -$0.13bn per month.

The broker expects Stack’s leaving to continue to weigh as institutional clients revisit mandates only once a PM exits or at periodic intervals.

The analyst lowered the FY25 EPS forecast by -0.1% and FY26 by -0.6%.

Underweight maintained. Target cut to $8.55 from $8.60.

This report was published on April 4, 2025.

Target price is $8.55 Current Price is $6.96 Difference: $1.59
If MFG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.84, suggesting upside of 26.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 49.80 cents and EPS of 80.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.3, implying annual growth of -36.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 37.70 cents and EPS of 71.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.4, implying annual growth of -14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXL    NUIX LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $2.55

Moelis rates ((NXL)) as Hold (3) –

Nuix lowered its guidance in the latest trading update, expecting annualised contract value growth in FY25 to be at the lower end of 11%-16% guidance as macro uncertainties are expected to impact deal closure timeframes.

Moelis left FY25 forecasts unchanged but increased R&D expenses to 28% of sales from FY26 onwards. This reduced margins across the forecast period, impacting FY26 estimates and DCF valuation.

Target price drops to $3.07 from $4.95. Hold maintained.

This report was published on April 7, 2025.

Target price is $3.07 Current Price is $2.55 Difference: $0.52
If NXL meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 134.21.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WDS    WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $19.89

Goldman Sachs rates ((WDS)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs believes Woodside Energy’s sell-down of the Louisiana LNG Infrastructure development to Stonepeak takes it one step closer to a final investment decision this quarter despite an uncertain backdrop.

The broker notes the impact of recently announced tariffs on the project capex is unclear. The analyst understands Louisiana LNG is in a foreign trade zone, so might be exempt from tariff.

No change to estimates as the sale isn’t completed yet (expected in 2Q25).

Neutral. Target unchanged at $24.50.

This report was published on April 7, 2025.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $19.89 Difference: $4.61
If WDS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.77, suggesting upside of 33.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 72.15 cents and EPS of 144.31 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 199.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 146.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 35.31 cents and EPS of 70.62 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 131.6, implying annual growth of -34.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 93.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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