Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 29, 2025

This story features A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A2M

The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

A2M   AEL   ALQ   BC8   CCR   CNB   ERD (2)   EVO   MAC   MAP   NEU   ORG (2)   SLC   SMP   SVL   TLS   VAU   WBC   WTC (2)  

A2M    A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED

Dairy – Overnight Price: $8.11

Jarden rates ((A2M)) as Overweight (2) –

Media reports suggest a2 Milk Co may pursue a -$350m acquisition of manufacturing assets in New Zealand.

Jarden would consider such a move as consistent with the company’s strategy to expand China-label market access and internalise manufacturing to improve margin and supply chain control.

The broker believes the likely target may be Yashili, New Zealand’s blending and canning facility. It’s thought this would allow a2 Milk Co to diversify beyond Synlait Milk ((SM1), access additional Chinese label registrations, and improve gross margins by NZ$2-3 per tin.

Jarden maintains an Overweight rating and NZ$7.75 target price.

This report was published on May 26, 2025.

Current Price is $8.11. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $7.40, suggesting downside of -8.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.87 cents and EPS of 24.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 19.60 cents and EPS of 25.99 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of 13.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.0.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AEL    AMPLITUDE ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.19

Jarden rates ((AEL)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden highlights a positive market update for Amplitude Energy citing stronger-than-expected production trends and a likely upgrade to 2P reserves at the Sole gas field.

Management anticipates production at the Orbost plant will track towards the upper end of FY25 guidance (72.3 TJe/day). The Sole field performance has exceeded the broker’s expectations, with a potential 10% uplift in reserves seen as adding 2cps to valuation.

Although Athena and Cooper Basin production was slightly reduced due to operational issues, management signed new gas contracts and is leveraging spot/contract price spreads to lock in more volumes, notes the broker.

No change to 25c target and Buy rating.

This report was published on May 26, 2025.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.06
If AEL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 36.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 63.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.4, implying annual growth of 166.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALQ    ALS LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $16.30

Goldman Sachs rates ((ALQ)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs notes ALS Ltd’s FY25 underlying net profit was in line with its forecasts, with revenue for the life sciences division matching its expectations and for the commodities division exceeding by 1%.

The broker noted the equity raising of $350m at a -5.3% discount to last traded price, and $230m of that will be used for lab expansions.

The balance amount of $120m will likely be deployed for acquisitions, and potential focus areas will be minerals and environmental testing.

Buy. Target unchanged at $17.80.

This report was published on May 27, 2025.

Target price is $17.80 Current Price is $16.30 Difference: $1.5
If ALQ meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.91, suggesting upside of 16.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.3, implying annual growth of 38.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2.

Forecast for FY27:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY27 EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.8, implying annual growth of 14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BC8    BLACK CAT SYNDICATE LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.81

Petra Capital rates ((BC8)) as Buy (1) –

Strong drill results from Black Cat Syndicate’s Imperial deposit, including 5m at 12.97g/t gold, point to its likely inclusion in an updated mine plan, accelerating the Kal East project ramp-up, highlights Petra Capital.

First ore from Fingals is expected in December 2025, with Majestic and Myhree underground mines following in 2026, positioning the company to fill its Lakewood Mill with 100% company ore by 2H26, notes the analyst.

The company remains unhedged and debt-free, with $67.5m in cash and bullion as of March 2025, and is targeting production growth to around 25koz by March 2026 from 6koz in June 2025.

Petra Capital retains a Buy rating on Black Cat Syndicate and slightly lowers the target price to $1.82 from $1.83 following a modest change in share count.

This report was published on May 27, 2025.

Target price is $1.82 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $1.01
If BC8 meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 125% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 32.40.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 28.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.87.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCR    CREDIT CLEAR LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $0.23

Petra Capital rates ((CCR)) as Buy (1) –

Management at Credit Clear has lowered FY25 revenue guidance to $46-47m from $48-50m. Petra Capital explains this is due to cyclone impacts, delays in receiving credit files from key clients, and slower onboarding of Tier-1 customers.

Despite softer top-line growth, FY25 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of circa $7m is unchanged, with a -$2m cost-out program offsetting the revenue shortfall, explains the analyst.

Management expects record monthly revenues in May and June and continues to secure Tier-1 wins, with 13 new client additions year-to-date.

Petra sees longer collection cycles and recurring revenues from Tier-1 clients as supportive for margin expansion.

A private equity approach has been received, while management is also actively exploring internal M&A options.

Petra lowers its price target to $0.49 from $0.57 on reduced near-term forecasts but maintains a Buy rating given operating leverage and strategic client wins.

This report was published on May 27, 2025.

Target price is $0.49 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.255
If CCR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 109% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 33.57.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.11.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNB    CARNABY RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.37

Moelis rates ((CNB)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis maintains a Buy rating and 80 cent target for Carnaby Resources following strong initial assay results from Trekelano, a high-grade copper-gold deposit located in northwest Queensland.

A pre-feasibility study (PFS) is targeted for 2H 2025.

The broker sees these results as reinforcing the geological prospectivity of the Duchess project area and notes potential for an upgrade to the current production outlook.

Moelis highlights the advantage of existing rail and processing infrastructure at Duchess, allowing for a rapid and capital-efficient development.

In short, the broker believes the current valuation gap offers an attractive entry point for long-term investors.

This report was published on May 27, 2025.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.43
If CNB meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 116% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.74.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.78.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ERD    EROAD LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $1.25

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ERD)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity highlights Eroad beat its forecasts for FY25 revenue, EBIT and free cash flow for three consecutive years.

The company’s FY26 revenue guidance of over NZ$205m was higher than the broker’s forecast, prompting an upward revision. Deal pipeline continues to increase with opportunities for FY26 in North America.

The broker lifted FY26-28 revenue forecasts but cut EBITDA forecasts due to more expensing of R&D costs.

Buy. Target rises to NZ$2.00 from NZ$1.60.

This report was published on May 27, 2025.

Current Price is $1.25. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.56.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.76.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((ERD)) as Neutral (3) –

Eroad has delivered FY25 free cash flow of NZ$16m, its first positive result since FY21, highlights Jarden.

Revenue grew 7% to NZ$194m, supported by strength in Australia and New Zealand, while North America remains weak, with unit declines as management prioritises enterprise clients, explain the analysts.

FY26 revenue is guided above NZ$205m, with upside from late-stage pipeline deals.

Cost discipline and operational efficiencies are improving margin and cash conversion, observes the broker.

Jarden raises the target price to NZ$1.20 from NZ$1.05 and retains a Neutral rating.

This report was published on May 26, 2025.

Current Price is $1.25. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.28.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.09.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVO    EMBARK EARLY EDUCATION LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $0.69

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EVO)) as Buy (1) –

Embark Early Education announced the acquisition of two childcare centres for -$3.7m, funded by bank debt. Canaccord Genuity believes the company could spend $96m on acquisitions, assuming a 4.5x multiple, which would add 88% to group EBITDA.

A trading update was provided, showing year-to-date EBITDA was tracking 40% higher y/y, which compares with the broker’s FY25 forecast for 34% growth. Revenue was up 8% despite occupancy pressure.

The broker cut the FY25 occupancy forecast slightly lower, with a new forecast -3% y/y. EBITDA and net profit forecasts were cut by -1%.

Buy. Target lifts to $1.09 from $1.04 on valuation roll-forward to FY26.

This report was published on May 27, 2025.

Target price is $1.09 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.405
If EVO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.70.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 10.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.40.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAC    MAC COPPER LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $18.67

Moelis rates ((MAC)) as Buy (1) –

MAC Copper has agreed to a US$12.25/share all-cash takeover offer from South African miner Harmony Gold, representing a 20.7% premium to its last US close, notes Moelis.

The MAC board unanimously recommends the deal, which is structured as a Jersey court-approved scheme and expected to complete in the December quarter 2025.

At the current exchange rate, the offer equates to $18.93/share, below Moelis’ $25 price target.

The broker sees the bid as validating management’s operational improvements and the strategic value of its CSA Cobar Copper asset, which the equity market has failed to fully reflect.

Moelis expects the deal to proceed absent a competing offer and anticipates the share price will quickly align with the bid price when trading resumes. Subsequently, shares were trading at $18.75 during the 29/5 afternoon session on the ASX.

This report was published on May 28, 2025.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $18.67 Difference: $6.33
If MAC meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAP    MICROBA LIFE SCIENCES LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.15

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MAP)) as Upgrade to Buy from Buy, High Risk (1) –

Canaccord Genuity has revised its estimates for Microba Life Sciences after considering a prescriber-based model across Australia, UK and the US markets.

Target price revised down to 26c from 44c as the broker assumes a conservative market adoption rate for MetaXplore and Meta Panel in all three key markets.

The sales assumptions in the forecasts, however, only include Australia and UK, where the operations currently sit. The US opportunity is estimated separately.

Rating revised to Buy from Speculative Buy.

This report was published on May 27, 2025.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.11
If MAP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEU    NEUREN PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $13.81

Petra Capital rates ((NEU)) as Buy (1) –

Management at Neuren Pharmaceuticals has confirmed the Phase 3 trial for NNZ-2591 in Phelan-McDermid Syndrome (PMS) will begin by mid-2025, with co-primary endpoints already agreed with the FDA.

The trial will enrol 160 children aged 3-12 and is expected to cost -US$80-90m, in line with prior guidance, and fully funded from the company’s $341m cash balance as of March 2025.

The company also provided initial details on a new indication, Hypoxic-Ischemic Encephalopathy (HIE), and plans to engage the FDA on a potential Phase 2/3 trial design.

This HIE opportunity expands NNZ-2591’s addressable market and supports Neuron’s broader development pipeline, highlight the analysts.

Buy. Target price $31.45.

This report was published on May 28, 2025.

Target price is $31.45 Current Price is $13.81 Difference: $17.64
If NEU meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 128% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 116.05.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 170.49.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG    ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $10.55

Goldman Sachs rates ((ORG)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating on Origin Energy and trims its price target to $10.10 from $10.15.

FY25 guidance was updated with Energy Markets earnings raised to $1.3-1.4bn from $1.1-.4bn, in line with Goldman’s $1.37bn forecast.

Octopus is now expected to post a loss of up to -$100m due to reduced UK gas demand amid unseasonably warm weather, and one-off regulatory impacts, explains the broker.

The re-pricing of the 7.6mtpa APLNG contract with Sinopec was confirmed, reducing the oil indexation slope to 13% from 14% as expected, pressuring the analyst’s forward revenue assumptions.

Goldman warns that while Energy Markets is performing well, risks remain around underappreciated APLNG capex needs, now expected to double to circa -$1.2bn by FY30.

This report was published on May 26, 2025.

Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $10.55 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.57, suggesting downside of -0.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 89.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.1, implying annual growth of 9.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.4, implying annual growth of -26.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((ORG)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral (4) –

Jarden notes the APLNG contract price review initiated by Sinopec concluded with a price lower than its forecasts. As a result, the broker cut Origin Energy’s (27.5% stake in APLNG) FY25-26 EPS forecasts by up to -3%.

The new price formula will last until the contract expiry, but APLNG has an option to request a price review in 2030, meaning there’s only upside risk to the price.

Broadly, the broker reckons the rally in the company’s share price is surprising given headwinds from lower oil prices, APLNG price review and the possibility of APLNG capex increase. Rating therefore downgraded to Underweight from Neutral.

Target price cut to $10.05 from $10.25.

The above dates from May 23. The below is from three days later, on May 26.

Jarden describes Origin Energy’s latest update as mixed. FY25 Energy Markets earnings guidance was raised to $1.3-1.4bn from $1.1-1.4bn, due to stronger generation, favourable market conditions, and lower green certificate costs.

This prompts a modest 3.1% upgrade to the broker’s FY25 Energy Markets earnings (EBITDA) forecast to $1.36bn.

The downside came from Octopus Energy, with FY25 earnings downgraded by -$100m due to unusually warm spring weather in the UK, note the analysts. One-off effects tied to the 2022 UK price guarantee scheme also weighed.

Jarden has left its valuation of Octopus unchanged but raised the Energy Markets valuation by 10c per share, lifting the Origin target price to $10.15 from $10.05. Underweight retained.

This report was published on May 26, 2025.

Target price is $10.15 Current Price is $10.55 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.57, suggesting downside of -0.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 82.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.1, implying annual growth of 9.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 64.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.4, implying annual growth of -26.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLC    SUPERLOOP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $2.62

Wilsons rates ((SLC)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons reiterates an Overweight rating on Superloop and raises the target price to $2.85 from $2.48, citing strong subscriber growth and momentum from Origin Energy’s ((ORG)) broadband offering.

The company added 42,000 NBN services in the March quarter, and is on track to add another around 41,000 in 4Q25, driven by Origin’s discounted broadband promotion, explain the analysts.

Superloop remains debt-free, generating improving cash flows, highlights the broker.

Key catalysts, according to Wilsons, include ASX200 index inclusion, sustained market share gains, and improved NBN pricing dynamics.

This report was published on May 28, 2025.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.23
If SLC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting downside of -2.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 100.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of 32.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SMP    SMARTPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.93

Wilsons rates ((SMP)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons maintains an Overweight rating on Smartpay following a stronger-than-expected 2H result, with total transaction volume (TTV) of $3.6bn up 14% year-on-year, 4% above the broker’s forecast.

Revenue of $53.9m was in line with the analysts’ estimates, while earnings (EBITDA) of $8.0m exceeded forecasts due to lower-than-expected operating expenses. Delayed costs ahead of Smartpay’s NZ Acquiring launch later in 2025 also weighed.

NZ Acquiring refers to the company’s move into providing full payment processing (merchant acquiring) services in New Zealand, in addition to supplying EFTPOS terminals.

The EBITDA margin declined slightly (1.23%), likely due to softer pricing or lower usage of high-margin international cards, the broker speculates.

A net loss of -$1.2m was slightly better than forecast by the analyst, and negative free cash flow of -$9.6m was in line with expectations.

There was no update on inbound M&A activity, and Wilsons expects limited share price movement until further clarity emerges.

This report was published on May 28, 2025.

Target price is $1.32 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.395
If SMP meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 144.98.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.98.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SVL    SILVER MINES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.10

Petra Capital rates ((SVL)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital reiterates a Buy rating and 17c target price on Silver Mines after a major permitting milestone for its Bowdens Silver Project.

The NSW Department of Planning ruled the proposed powerline is no longer part of the mine’s unified development, allowing the mine’s approval process to proceed independently.

Management expects to resubmit information shortly and anticipates development approval and a mining lease by December 2025, with construction to start in March 2026 and first production in December 2027.

The company remains well-funded with $23.3m in cash and no debt, and Petra Capital assumes the company will raise an additional $100m in equity during FY26 to support development.

The broker sees the permitting reset as a positive inflection point and a key step toward unlocking value from one of the world’s largest undeveloped silver resources.

This report was published on May 28, 2025.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.071
If SVL meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 49.50.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 49.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLS    TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.74

Goldman Sachs rates ((TLS)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs describes Telstra Group’s newly released “Connected Future 30” strategy as consistent with expectations, with a clear focus on mobile, digital infrastructure, and disciplined capital management.

Management targets a mid-single digit cash earnings compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to FY30, underpinned by positive operating leverage and a 10% return on invested capital (ROIC) target. Cash EPS is also projected to grow at circa 8% annually.

Capital management remains central, observe the analysts, with plans to grow fully-franked dividends and execute buybacks, leveraging over $20bn of financial capacity by FY30.

The company re-affirmed FY25 guidance, expecting to finish at the top end of free cash flow ($3-3.4bn) and capex (-$3.2-3.4bn) ranges.

Goldman maintains its Buy rating with a 12-month price target of $4.90. The broker sees valuation support through Telstra’s unique assets, though notes the lack of more aggressive mobile or fixed enterprise targets as a mild surprise.

This report was published on May 27, 2025.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: $0.16
If TLS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting downside of -0.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of 37.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of 11.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VAU    VAULT MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.44

Jarden rates ((VAU)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden reiterates a Buy rating on Vault Minerals with an increase in target price to 59c from 57c, following updated guidance and mine expansion plans at King of the Hills (KoTH).

KoTH’s reserve upgrade, driven by a higher Australian dollar gold price assumption, has extended open pit mine life by four years and boosted production guidance, notes the broker.

Despite lower grades, throughput uplift from the stage 2 expansion and enhanced recovery rates are expected to keep costs (AISC) competitive and improve overall earnings.

Capital expenditure timelines have been pulled forward, with stage 1 capex revised to -$22m for FY25 from -$8m, and stage 2 adding a further -$4m this year. 

Jarden raises its FY25-27 EPS estimates, upgrades earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by 6-9%, and sees the project’s long-term leverage to gold prices as a structural advantage.

This report was published on May 27, 2025.

Target price is $0.59 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.15
If VAU meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.36.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.21.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC    WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks – Overnight Price: $31.47

Jarden rates ((WBC)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden is comparing Westpac with ANZ Bank ((ANZ)), noting both have new CEOs. 

The key difference, according to Jarden, is on the technology side. ANZ is migrating to “future readiness” with ANZ Plus but Westpac is not yet investing in new modern kit.

The latter will likely happen once the Unite program is completed, which is not before FY29. Underweight. Target price $30.

This report was published on May 26, 2025.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $31.47 Difference: minus $1.47 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $28.98, suggesting downside of -8.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 153.00 cents and EPS of 198.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 195.6, implying annual growth of -2.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 152.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 155.00 cents and EPS of 196.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 197.9, implying annual growth of 1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 156.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WTC    WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $107.50

Goldman Sachs rates ((WTC)) as Buy (1) –

WiseTech Global has announced the acquisition of US-listed E2open for -US$2.1bn, expected to be 8-10% accretive to FY27 earnings.

Goldman Sachs sees this transaction as a significant strategic step in advancing WiseTech’s ambition to be the operating system for global logistics, expanding the Cargowise platform across the US$57bn global market.

FY25 EPS guidance was maintained. The broker notes the standalone development commencement yield on cost hit a record 11% in the March quarter, led by the Vernon data centre.

Goldman Sachs retains a Buy rating with a -2% lower target price of $126.

This report was published on May 26, 2025.

Target price is $126.00 Current Price is $107.50 Difference: $18.5
If WTC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 21.57 cents and EPS of 109.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 98.29.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 29.27 cents and EPS of 146.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 73.46.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((WTC)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden maintains a Neutral rating on WiseTech Global but raises its target price to $100 from $94 following the proposed US$2.1bn acquisition of e2open.

While the broker views the deal as strategically sound, with potential to unlock US$1bn in post-tax synergies, it flags execution risks, particularly around integration, product overlap, and e2open’s less predictable revenue model.

The transaction is expected to be EPS neutral in FY25 but could become 10% accretive by FY27 if management at WiseTech delivers -US$50m in targeted cost savings, explain the analysts.

FY25 guidance remains unchanged, with revenue expected at the lower end of $792-858m and earnings (EBITDA) margins at the upper end.

Jarden highlights much of the valuation already reflects long-term execution, and notes unresolved governance concerns and uncertainty around FY26 delivery as reasons to remain on the sidelines. 

This report was published on May 27, 2025.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $107.50 Difference: minus $7.5 (current price is over target).
If WTC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 70.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 153.13.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 18.50 cents and EPS of 91.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 117.36.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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