Daily Market Reports | 8:43 AM
This story features LENDLEASE GROUP, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
US markets recovered on Friday on speculation around (finally) a resolution to the government shutdown.
The ASX200, having fallen for two consecutive weeks, is looking to start Monday on a positive note according to SPI futures.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 8794.00 | + 23.00 | 0.26% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8769.70 | – 58.60 | – 0.66% |
| S&P500 | 6728.80 | + 8.48 | 0.13% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 23004.54 | – 49.46 | – 0.21% |
| DJIA | 46987.10 | + 74.80 | 0.16% |
| S&P500 VIX | 19.08 | – 0.42 | – 2.15% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.09 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| USD Index | 99.47 | – 0.09 | – 0.09% |
| FTSE100 | 9682.57 | – 53.21 | – 0.55% |
| DAX30 | 23569.96 | – 164.06 | – 0.69% |
Good Morning,
ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) has released its FY25 financials this morning and it looks like the key profit number is below consensus expectation.
***
The ASX200 slipped -1.26% last week for -112points to finish at 8769, a second consecutive week of losses.
This week’s important economic event is Thursday’s release of October labour force data.
Employment rose by 14.9k in September, lower than the 20k consensus, and the unemployment rate moved to 4.5% from the revised 4.3%.
The market expects 20k additional jobs and the unemployment rate to rise slightly to 4.4%.
What happened overnight, NAB Markets Today Research
US equities staged a late recovery on Friday as hopes for a shutdown deal lifted sentiment, but the Nasdaq still posted a -3% weekly loss, dragged down by declines in Alphabet, Tesla, and chip stocks.
The S&P500 and Dow managed small gains on Friday but ended the week down -1.6% and -1.2%, respectively. In Europe, the Eurostoxx600 fell -1.2% on the week, while the FTSE 100 and DAX also closed lower.
Asia saw Japan’s Nikkei tumble -4.1%. its worst week since April, amid concerns over tech valuations and a global pullback in risk appetite. SoftBank and other tech names led the decline, though some positive earnings revisions (e.g., Nintendo) provided a partial offset. China’s CSI300 bucked the trend, rising 0.8%.
The US government shutdown entered its sixth week with no resolution in sight. While Senate Democrats offered a scaled-back proposal to extend health care subsidies for a year in exchange for reopening the government, Republicans swiftly rejected the offer, calling it a “nonstarter”.
The positive sign is that we are now seeing politicians engaging in credible dialogues and although the weekend session ended without a breakthrough, there is a growing sense of urgency to reach a compromise.
The economic consequences are mounting: the Congressional Budget Office estimates the shutdown could shave -1.5% (annualised) points off quarterly GDP growth by mid-November. Polls suggest most Americans support extending health care tax credits but blame for the impasse is split; 52% point to Republicans and Trump, while 42% blame Democrats.
The shutdown’s impact is increasingly visible, with thousands of flights canceled as air traffic controllers work without pay, and federal data releases, including payrolls and inflation, delayed or at risk of cancellation. Reduction in flight capacity took effect on Friday, due to safety reason with capacity reduced by -4%, increasing by 1% per day until it reaches -10% this week.
Thanksgiving is approaching (November 27) and the increase in flight cancellation is ramping the pressure on politicians to reach a compromise.
US consumer sentiment tumbled to near-record lows in November, with the University of Michigan’s preliminary index dropping -3.3 points to 50.3 just above the all-time low set in June 2022.
The current conditions index slumped -6.3 points to a record low of 52.3, while the expectations index edged down to 49.0. The decline was broad-based across age, income, and political groups, with Democrats and independents registering the lowest confidence since 1984.
Inflation expectations remain elevated: one-year expectations ticked up to 4.7%, while five-to-ten-year expectations eased to 3.6%, still well above pre-pandemic averages.
Moving on to rates markets, US Treasury yields ended Friday slightly higher, with the 10-year yield up 1.4bps to 4.10% and the 30-year up 1.9bps to 4.70%. The curve steepened, with the 2s10s spread widening by 1bp.
Over the week, the 10-year yield rose 2bps, while the 30-year climbed nearly 5bps. Fed policy expectations remained steady, pricing around a 66% chance of a -25bp cut at the December meeting.
European bond yields also moved higher over the week. UK 10-year gilts rose 5bps to 4.46%, their first weekly increase since September, while German 10-year bunds climbed 3.3bps to 2.67%. The 5s30s German curve steepened to the upper end of its recent range. Money markets are now pricing in a 70% chance of a quarter-point BoE cut in December.
Iron ore futures fell -2.5% on Friday and -4.6% for the week, weak Chinese steel demand and shrinking mill margins weighed on sentiment. Ample supply and subdued macro catalysts added to the pressure.
Oil prices edged higher on Friday (WTI up 0.5%, Brent up 0.4%) but posted weekly losses of around -2% amid oversupply concerns. Gold was little changed on the day but up 0.3% for the week, while silver and base metals saw mixed moves. Coal prices rose 6% over the week, while copper and aluminum declined.
China’s consumer prices were released over the weekend , CPI headline rose 0.2% y/y in October, emerging from two months of deflation, as holiday demand boosted travel, food, and transport. Core CPI climbed 1.2%, while producer price deflation eased to -2.1% y/y.
The rebound in inflation is a welcome sign for policymakers, though price growth remains subdued and nominal GDP expansion lags real growth. Beijing continues to prioritise breaking the deflationary cycle, but progress has been slow amid concerns about jobs and economic momentum.
On Friday, China’s trade data for October revealed a sharp slowdown in export growth, with exports falling -1.1% year-on-year in US dollar terms after an 8.3% rise in September, well below expectations.
While US tariffs continued to weigh, the weakness was driven by broad-based declines in shipments to non-US markets, including Europe, ASEAN, and Latin America, maybe reflecting a limit to brisk pace of growth since in recent months, impact from anti re-routing measures from the US and loss competitiveness.
Imports also cooled markedly, rising just 1.0% year-on-year versus 7.5% previously, as gains in oil and soybean stockpiling were offset by declines in chips and industrial metals, signaling ongoing weakness in construction activity
Australian labour force data on Thursday; we expect a lift of 20k employment and unemployment to tick down to 4.4%. RBA Deputy Governor Hauser speaks Monday, and Consumer confidence and the NAB Business Survey are Tuesday.
From Ai Zen to AI Jitters, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research extract
The S&P500 peaked at a record high of 6890.59 on October 28. It is down -2.4% since then. It retested its 50-day moving average on Friday, falling slightly below it around noon. It then closed higher on the day on hopes that a compromise proposal from the Democrats might end the government shutdown. Negotiations are reportedly happening, but they remain tense and far from resolution.
A week ago, we warned: “While earnings are bullish, sentiment is bearish in the very short term. There are too many bulls.” A quick test of the 200-day moving average is possible and would amount to an -11% correction. That would be a buying opportunity. We are still aiming for the S&P500 to end the year at or closer to a record high of 7000.
Investors are jittery about AI-related stocks, as evidenced by the -4.9% drop in the MAGS ETF since October 29. We are not in the AI bubble camp. The cash flow of the AI hyperscalers continues to exceed their rapidly rising capital spending, with a payoff manifest in the rapidly increasing revenues of the cloud providers.
Still unambiguously bullish is that the S&P500 forward earnings per share continues to soar to record highs. It is now US$302.83 with the forward P/E at 22.2.
Earnings were much stronger than industry analysts expected in Q1 and Q2. The same can be said for Q3. At the start of the Q3 earnings season, they expected a 6.5% y/y increase in S&P500 earnings per share. The quarter is currently on track to exceed 14.0%!
Meanwhile, on the economic front, investors’ jitters were exacerbated last week by a jump in October layoff announcements and by the weakness in the preliminary November Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI). The layoffs were concentrated in technology and warehousing. They were not widespread and reflected the impact of productivity-boosting AI and automation advancements on these two industries.
The CSI has been a useless economic indicator since the pandemic. Besides, when American consumers are happy, they spend money. When they are depressed, they sometimes spend even more, as long as they remain employed.
The signs of weakness in the labor market are unlikely to convince the majority of FOMC voters to cut the federal funds rate again in December, as actual and expected inflation remain elevated.
Corporate news in Australia
-Tuas’ ((TUA)) M1 takeover is facing a new challenge with M1’s largest customer asking Singapore’s regulator to allow it to tear up its contract for the deal to proceed.
-Lendlease Group ((LLC)) acquires the NSW Government’s stake in TCorp.
-Pacific Equity Partners has dropped its bid for Alliance Aviation Services ((AQZ)) after the latter’s profit warning.
-Italian investors are looking at acquiring Pilbara Rail Maintenance for $180m.
On the calendar today:
-AU RBA Dep Gov Hauser speech
-AU Sept Dwelling Approvals
-ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((ANZ)) earnings report
-DYNO NOBEL LIMITED ((DNL)) FY25 Result
-DEVELOP GLOBAL LIMITED ((DVP)) AGM
-INTELLIGENT MONITORING GROUP LIMITED ((IMB)) AGM
-LINDIAN RESOURCES LIMITED ((LIN)) AGM
-SKY METALS LIMITED ((SKY)) AGM
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 4009.80 | + 15.90 | 0.40% |
| Silver (oz) | 48.14 | + 0.30 | 0.63% |
| Copper (lb) | 4.96 | – 0.02 | – 0.36% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.30 | + 0.01 | 0.46% |
| Nickel (lb) | 6.75 | + 0.02 | 0.24% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.39 | + 0.01 | 0.45% |
| West Texas Crude | 59.75 | + 0.17 | 0.29% |
| Brent Crude | 63.63 | + 0.11 | 0.17% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 103.34 | – 1.74 | – 1.66% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days…
| Index | 07 Nov 2025 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Nov) | Quarter To Date (Oct-Dec) | Year To Date (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8769.70 | -1.26% | -1.26% | -0.89% | 7.48% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| ADH | Adairs | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate | Morgans |
| AMC | Amcor | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate | Morgans |
| APE | Eagers Automotive | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS |
| ASX | ASX | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| BRG | Breville Group | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
| CAT | Catapult Sports | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Bell Potter |
| CCP | Credit Corp | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| GMG | Goodman Group | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS | ||
| JHX | James Hardie Industries | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
| LOV | Lovisa Holdings | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
| NAB | National Australia Bank | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight | Morgan Stanley |
| Downgrade to Sell from Lighten | Ord Minnett | ||
| SVM | Sovereign Metals | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ANZ - ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AQZ - ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DNL - DYNO NOBEL LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DVP - DEVELOP GLOBAL LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IMB - INTELLIGENT MONITORING GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LIN - LINDIAN RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LLC - LENDLEASE GROUP
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SKY - SKY METALS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TUA - TUAS LIMITED