The Overnight Report: Happy HoHoHo Record

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This story features GOODMAN GROUP, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GMG
The company is included in ASX20, ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Led higher by precious metals and technology stocks, the S&P500 reached a new all time high ahead of Christmas Eve.

After a strong performance yesterday, despite the hawkish tone in the RBA's December meeting minutes, ASX200 futures are suggesting some weakness at the open.

The market closes today at 2.15pm.

Good Morning,

The Australian market closed up 95.8pts on Tuesday or 1.1% on lower-than-normal volume.

Real Estate rallied by 3% led by Goodman Group ((GMG)). All of eleven sectors gained on the day.

AMP’s Shane Oliver shared on X:

RBA minutes reinforce the hawkish tone of the Dec meeting with concerns inflation could be “a little more persistent”.

Our view remains rates on hold in 2026 but with risks on the upside and 1Q2026 trimmed mean inflation the near term key: 0.8% q/q or less equals a greater chance of a hold; but 0.9% q/q or more equals a hike?

What happened overnight

Stocks closed higher for a fourth straight session boosted by AI-related companies. The S&P500 closed up 0.46% and is sitting just below its intraday all time high of 6,920.34 and closed at a new record high.

Precious metals continued to rally, led by silver, up almost 4%. 

The yield on the 2-yr Treasury note rose to 3.55%. and the 10-yr Treasury yield was up to 4.17% after the Bureau of Economic Analysis said the US economy grew at a 4.3% annual rate in the 3Q2025.

AI-related spending accounted for 15% growth over the last two quarters, according to Bespoke Investment Group finding it only represented less than 5% of overall GDP.

Traders continue to bet the Federal Reserve will lower its benchmark rate next year even after the strong economic data.

National Economic Council Director, Kevin Hassett said the Federal Reserve is not cutting interest rates fast enough. He said in an interview with CNBC “If you look at central banks around the world, the U.S. is way behind the curve in terms of lowering rates”.

In a post on Truth Social, President Trump decried how recent good economic data had been greeted with a mixed response from Wall Street, after stocks initially fell after the stronger than expected GDP print.

“I want my new Fed Chairman to lower Interest Rates if the Market is doing well, not destroy the Market for no reason whatsoever,” Trump wrote.

“I want to have a Market the likes of which we haven’t had in many decades, a Market that goes up on good news, and down on bad news, the way it should be, and the way it was. Inflation will take care of itself and, if it doesn’t, we can always raise Rates at the appropriate time— But the appropriate time is not to kill Rallies, which could lift our Nation by 10, 15, and even 20 GDP points in a year — and maybe even more than that!”

US stock and bond markets will close early tomorrow at 1pm ad 2pm, respectively eastern time.

US markets will reopen with normal trading hours on Friday, Dec 26.

Linh Tran, Market Analyst at XS.com

The S&P500 continues to maintain a positive tone as recently released U.S. economic data indicate the economy is cooling in a controlled manner rather than weakening abruptly.

This development keeps markets leaning toward a soft-landing scenario, thereby supporting investor sentiment, even as a degree of caution persists given that several risks have yet to fully dissipate.

Growth indicators reflect a slowdown in the economy, though not uniformly. The manufacturing sector remains under pressure, with regional surveys such as the Empire State and Philly Fed indices returning to negative territory, highlighting weak demand and elevated costs as ongoing headwinds for businesses.

Preliminary PMI readings also edged lower from the prior month, suggesting growth momentum is slowing, though not yet slipping into a severe contraction. This reinforces the view the U.S. economy is undergoing an adjustment phase rather than entering a deep recessionary cycle.

In the labor market, job creation remains modest, while the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, the highest level in nearly four years. Meanwhile, monthly wage growth slowed to 0.1%, signaling a clear easing in wage pressures.

These signals suggest the labor market is cooling, helping to reduce the risk of a renewed rise in inflation. CPI y/y, released last week, declined to 2.7% from 3.0% previously, indicating the disinflation trend is continuing at a gradual yet relatively sustainable pace.

With recent economic data pointing to slowing growth, easing inflation, and a gradually cooling labor market, the Federal Reserve now has some room to consider further rate cuts in a cautious and conditional manner, rather than being forced to maintain a prolonged restrictive stance as in the previous period.

The absence of renewed inflationary pressure affords the Fed greater policy flexibility and reduces the risk of additional monetary tightening amid an ongoing economic adjustment.

For the S&P500, the key factor is not an immediate rate cut by the Fed, but rather that real interest rates and bond yields do not continue to rise.

When interest rates stabilize or trend gradually lower over the medium term, equity markets can retain underlying support even as economic growth slows.

This environment allows the S&P500 to continue performing constructively, albeit cautiously, with greater reliance on the quality of corporate earnings and capital flows rather than expectations of aggressive monetary easing.

However, beyond domestic factors, geopolitical risks and energy security concerns remain notable variables for the market outlook.

Tensions in the Middle East, particularly surrounding Israel-Iran relations, along with the risk of disruptions along the strategic Red Sea shipping route, are heightening concerns over energy supply and logistics costs.

In addition, uncertainties related to Venezuelan oil and the Russia-Ukraine conflict remain key issues to monitor.

Any shock that drives energy prices higher could disrupt the disinflation process, potentially forcing the Fed to maintain a cautious stance for longer and exposing the S&P500 to periods of correction.

Corporate news in Australia

– Goodman Group ((GMG)) shares jumped over 8% announcing a $14bn European data centre partnership, a 50-50 venture that involves an initial -$3.9bn capital commitment to develop data centres in Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Paris

– Seven West Media ((SWM)) shares rose 4.2% as the Supreme Court of NSW approved its merger with Southern Cross Media ((SXL))

-Ramsay Health Care ((RHC)) announced it has moved to acquire the assets and operations of National Capital Private Hospital in Canberra from Healthscope receivers for -$251m

-Scentre Group ((SCG)) has sold a -19.9 % stake in its flagship Westfield Sydney precinct to the Australian Retirement Trust (ART) for $864m

– Core Lithium ((CXO)) has completed the sale of its non-core uranium assets to Elevate Uranium for $5m

– Perseus Mining ((PRU)) has lifted its debt facility to US$400m and extended it to a three-year term plus an option to extend for two years.

-At least 1700 jobs have been put at risk after MA Services Group entered voluntary administration following a string of high-profile scandals

-Electro Optic Systems ((EOS)) has secured a contract to deliver remote weapon systems (RWS) to General Dynamics Land Systems including hardware, development, spare parts and training for US$22m.

-AirTrunk is spending -$5bn for a second Melbourne data centre

-Lend Lease Group ((LLC)) is developing a -$2.2bn commercial tower in central Sydney by 2032 above Hunter Street Sydney Metro

-Blackstone acquires Queensland’s Hamilton Island for more than -$1bn

On the calendar today:

-AU Early close of trading on ASX; 2.10pm

-UK Weekly Jobless Claims

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

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