Daily Market Reports | 9:00 AM
This story features MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MGH
The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Weakness in software stocks dragged the Nasdaq lower. The S&P500 equally retreated from its fresh all time high.
After a third weak session in Australia on Thursday, ASX200 futures are pointing to a flat to slightly weaker start for the final session of the week.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 8828.00 | – 4.00 | – 0.05% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8793.40 | – 50.20 | – 0.57% |
| S&P500 | 7108.40 | – 29.50 | – 0.41% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 24438.50 | – 219.06 | – 0.89% |
| DJIA | 49310.32 | – 179.71 | – 0.36% |
| S&P500 VIX | 19.31 | + 0.39 | 2.06% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.32 | + 0.03 | 0.68% |
| USD Index | 98.66 | + 0.24 | 0.24% |
| FTSE100 | 10457.01 | – 19.45 | – 0.19% |
| DAX30 | 24155.45 | – 39.45 | – 0.16% |
Good Morning,
The ASX200 fell for a third straight session on Thursday, down -50 points or -0.6%, to 8,793.
Miners led the fall by -1.1% as did banks, while energy outperformed, up 3.1%.
On the calendar today are quarterly updates from Newmont Corp ((NEM)), IGO Ltd ((IGO)), Insignia Financial ((IFL)) and PLS Ltd ((PLS))
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
Today’s Big Picture, J.L. Bernstein extract
Software Sector Takes Its Worst Day In Over A Year
ServiceNow had its worst day in a decade. IBM slid on flat guidance. The software ETF dropped hard and dragged Microsoft down with it.
The fear driving all of it is simple: why pay ServiceNow or Oracle thousands per seat per year when ChatGPT and Claude can build the same workflow in an afternoon?
Nobody knows if that actually plays out. But you saw what the market was willing to price in today.
This probably isn’t the last bad day for the group.
Oil Climbs For A Fourth Straight Day
Brent crude pushed above US$105 after US-Iran talks failed to restart. Trump ordered the Navy to shoot any boat laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
The head of the IEA called this the biggest energy security threat in history. That’s the chief of the global energy watchdog saying “biggest ever”.
It’s why American Airlines just cut its 2026 profit outlook by over a dollar per share and why AmEx is flagging a spike in customer refund requests.
Expensive fuel eventually shows up in everything you buy.
Chip Rally Gets Broader And More Stretched
Texas Instruments had its biggest day since October 2000 after guiding Q2 revenue way above consensus.
The semi index has made 12 straight intraday records. Chips have added over US$3 trillion in market cap in 17 trading days, a move almost nobody in the market today has lived through.
The index now sits more stretched above its 200-day moving average than at any point since the dot-com bubble.
You know how that one ended.
NAB Markets Today Research extract
Markets moved into a more cautious footing as tensions around the Iran conflict escalated further, driving a sharp rise in oil prices and weighing on risk assets.
US equities fell modestly, led by technology stocks, while bond yields edged higher amid oil-driven inflation concerns and heavy geopolitical headlines.
The USD firmed marginally, commodity currencies weakened, and credit spreads widened slightly despite steady primary issuance in both the US and Europe.
Geopolitical risks intensified markedly as President Trump ordered the US military to escalate its response in the Strait of Hormuz, instructing naval forces to shoot any Iranian boat laying mines and maintaining a blockade of Iranian ports.
Iran responded by deploying additional naval mines, increasing the risk to global energy flows through the world’s most critical oil chokepoint.
Israel further heightened tensions, signalling readiness to resume military action should it receive US approval, adding to already fragile risk sentiment.
Compounding diplomatic risks, reports suggested Iran’s Parliament Chairman Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf resigned from the negotiation team following intervention by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), with Israeli media suggesting the IRGC is now driving decision-making amid a diminished role for Supreme Leader Khamenei.
Meanwhile, President Trump faces an eight-day deadline (1 May) under the War Powers Resolution, increasing near-term political pressure and uncertainty.
Diplomatic efforts continue to face headwinds, with US rhetoric and the ongoing naval blockade undermining prospects for renewed negotiations despite mediation efforts by regional partners.
Preliminary April PMI data reinforced a widening divergence between manufacturing and services globally. Manufacturing activity strengthened across all major economies, with particularly strong expansion in the US (54.0), Japan (54.9) and the UK (53.6).
In contrast, services activity deteriorated sharply in Europe, dragging composite PMIs into contraction in the Eurozone, Germany and France.
The US and UK stood out as relative outperformers, supported by both manufacturing and services expansion, while Europe continues to bear the brunt of geopolitical spillovers and weaker consumer demand.
Looking ahead it will be interesting to see if the recent strength in manufacturing has been aided by firms looking to get ahead of the Iran conflict, if so, the expansionary improvement may prove short-lived.
Meanwhile weakness in services, particularly in Europe could be a signal of what is yet to come, if the hit to disposable income from higher energy prices persist.
Commodity markets were dominated by energy, with Brent rising 3.2% to around US$105/bbl and WTI up 3.2% to just under US$96/bbl, reflecting escalating risks to supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
In contrast, safe-haven demand did not extend to precious metals, with gold falling. Industrial commodities softened, with iron ore down -0.6%, copper lower by around -1.2%, and broader base metals also weaker, highlighting concerns around global demand despite supply-side disruptions in energy markets.
US equities declined modestly, with the S&P500 down 0.41%, the Dow Jones lower by 0.36%, and the Nasdaq underperforming with a -0.89% fall as technology stocks came under pressure amid stock specific news.
Within the S&P500, Utilities, Industrials, and Consumer Staples outperformed, while Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials lagged. European equities were broadly flat, with the Stoxx600 up 0.1%, while Asian markets declined, led by losses in the Hang Seng (-1.0%), Nikkei (-0.8%), and ASX200 (-0.6%).
On corporate news, Meta announced plans to cut approximately -8,000 jobs and halt the filling of 6,000 open roles as it seeks to offset aggressive AI investment, while Microsoft unveiled a voluntary buy-out programme alongside a record US$25bn AI and cloud investment in Australia.
Separately, Intel delivered a strong earnings surprise and upbeat revenue guidance driven by AI infrastructure demand, sending its shares sharply higher in after-hours trading.
US Treasury yields edged higher during the US session, led by the belly of the curve, with 2-year yields up around 1.3bp to 3.82% and 10-year yields essentially unchanged at 4.32%.
In Europe, core yields were little changed, with 10-year Bund yields broadly flat around 3.01%, while UK gilts underperformed modestly. Australian bond futures showed a mild outperformance with both the 3y and 10y edging higher in price terms to 95.31 and 94.99.
Currency markets reflected a mild risk-off tone. The USD index rose by 0.25% (DXY), supported by higher yields and geopolitical uncertainty. News from Iran have not helped sentiment with the USD strength gaining momentum in the past few hours.
The AUD is down -0.45% over the past 24 hours, now trading at 0.7128, after initially climbing to an overnight high of 0.7162 and falling to an overnight low of 0.7111%.
The NZD is the G10 underperformer, down -0.85% on the day, unwinding its gain seen in the wake of stronger CPI data earlier this week. The NZD fell to a low of 0.5840 and is currently 0.5854.
Yesterday, Moody’s decision to downgrade NZ’s sovereign credit rating outlook from stable to negative, following a similar action by Fitch Ratings last month, did not prompt any market response.
NZ’s fiscal accounts are experiencing pressure, much like those of many of its peers, meaning the country does not stand out in this regard.
Japan’s CPI today is the data to watch during our time zone.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Swissquote
If you handed a market chart to an alien, any of the big ones, including US, European or tech-heavy Asian indices, they would barely guess that the world is being shaken by intense geopolitical tensions that brought transit at one of the planet’s most critical chokepoints to a near-halt, that the situation has been going on for nearly two months, threatening a man-made energy shortage across the planet, and that there is no light at the end of the tunnel.
They wouldn’t guess either that world leaders now prefer tweeting threats on social media as a new form of diplomacy.
Both the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 posted fresh new highs yesterday on news that the ceasefire would be extended without a deadline, although it is being extended because the US and Iran are failing to find common ground. And there is probably too much ego and reputational damage for either party to back down.
Alas, tech investors care increasingly less. VanEck’s semiconductor ETF rallied in 13 of the past 14 sessions on renewed AI optimism.
On Wednesday, Google gained more than 2% after revealing a new TPU chip designed to make AI computing faster and cheaper. Amazon also gained more than 2% after announcing a US$5bn investment in AI’s rising star Anthropic, on top of the US$8bn already committed, and said there could be US$20bn more –- a deal that includes Anthropic spending over US$100bn on Amazon Web Services (AWS) over around 10 years.
Circular, yes? But investors have now digested the circular nature of these deals, or they simply view them as preferable to war-exposed assets.
A shadow on optimism this morning, TSMC says ASML’s new machines are too pricey. Alas, that’s the only one to produce these machines.
What is also interesting is that we are seeing pretty much the same sell-off-and-recovery pattern we saw last April, after the so-called Liberation Day.
The choice of words still makes me smile a year or so later, especially given the US has just released a web platform to refund taxes that were allegedly collected over months. And while trade uncertainties persisted, major US, and other global indices kept rallying.
This is what we see today: a dip on initial shock, followed by a rebound to all-time highs. It is almost safe to say that, no matter the news, markets rally. But of course, gains come with the risk of sharp reversals, as an energy crisis is still looming. But that’s just a blip.
Still, US crude was trading above the US$100/bbl psychological mark this morning on extended uncertainties in the Middle East, while Brent crude traded past US$106/bbl, the highest level in more than two weeks.
The latter is weighing on appetite for equities as well. US and European futures point to a lower open, while the Japanese Nikkei and Kospi retreat from all-time highs.
One pattern is clear today: tech-heavy indices and energy are outperforming other sectors, as the global economic outlook deteriorates due to higher energy prices.
Further upside is possible for crude oil, but gains will likely remain short-lived, as at these levels demand typically slows enough to cap further upside. So far, US$120/bbl has acted as a strong resistance to bullish moves.
Globally, the US dollar is gaining ground, but more slowly compared to the first days of the conflict –- as some investors hedge higher energy risks via USD exposure.
Another wave of upward pressure on oil prices could give the US dollar a short-term boost. But in the longer run, the US economic outlook is also weakening. Happily for investors, the tech story is masking deteriorating fundamentals.
Inside tech, Tesla announced its first-quarter earnings in line with expectations. Revenue grew 16% from a year earlier (helped by an easy comparison, as sales were tumbling this time last year), but operating expenses ballooned 37% to nearly US$3.8bn.
In addition, the company ramped up capex to US$25bn this year, to keep up with the AI race, basically three years of combined spending.
The shares first popped in after-hours trading, but then reversed gains. Elon Musk has been incredibly successful in selling his tech dreams to the world, helped by a cash-generating machine that kept investors on board.
Today, that cash machine is sputtering. Unless Elon Musk’s new projects start generating meaningful cash flow, investors may start pulling back.
It is very difficult to put a price tag on Tesla. The company currently trades at a P/E ratio of nearly 320. If it traded near a P/E ratio of 30, its share price would be around US$36.
Of course, this is a very linear calculation and does not take into account growth potential from new technologies.
But when you trade a company like Tesla, it’s critical to understand that one is funding the dream of Elon Musk –- one that could change the world, but also carries significant risk.
ANZ Bank, Australian Morning Focus, Commodities Extract
Crude oil traded above US$100/bbl as tensions continue to mount in the absence of a peace deal.
Israel’s defence minister stated that the country is ready to restart military operations and is waiting for approval from Washington, this increases the possibility of a resumption of hostility. Iran attacked at least three vessels in the waterway, diverting two of them into its waters, on Wednesday.
The number of Iran-linked bulk carriers transiting the Persian Gulf fell to one on Thursday, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
This will be another disruption to export flows, as Iran has been loading 1.6–1.7mb/d in March and early this month. If the US blockade continues, reduced exports from Iran will fill storage facilities and prompt production curtailments.
Meanwhile, the US has released 79.7mbbl of oil from its strategic reserve to 12 companies, with more than 50% to be exported by June to Europe, Asia and Latin America.
European gas clawed back its losses to EUR45/MWh as tension continues over the control of Strait of Hormuz. While supply flows remain disrupted, production is increasing elsewhere.
The Wheatstone LNG plant in Australia resumed full production after shutting down during a storm last month. The long-awaited Golden Pass LNG project in the US has shipped its first cargo.
Imports have been strong in the region to replenish depleted gas inventories. Europe’s 30-day moving average for LNG imports was 228,000t/day, 8.6% higher than the five-year seasonal average, according to ship-tracking data.
Asian LNG prices rose above US$16/MMBtu, as supply flows are disrupted. China has started facing gas shortages, impacting utilities operations. China’s 30-day moving average for LNG imports on 22 April was 112kt, -17% lower than a year ago, according to shiptracking data.
Copper prices declined on rising tensions in the Middle East, after peace talks faltered raising concerns of an economic growth slowdown. China’s domestic demand looks relatively strong, and inventory levels are retreating, supporting prices.
Aluminium prices held near US$3,600/t amid escalating tension in the Middle East. The region’s exports meet 18% of global ex-China demand, while production fell by -28kt y/y to 495kt in March due to the conflict.
Iron ore remained steady amid restocking ahead of the May Day holidays 1–5 May. Home sales and property price declines have eased, supporting demand prospects.
Improving steel production along with the prospect of supply disruptions due to fuel shortages is supporting market sentiment. Lower imports and improved offtake from steel mills saw inventories retreating from their recent highs.
Gold prices traded with a negative bias, as renewed escalation drives energy prices and inflation expectations higher, which will likely delay interest rate cuts. Higher yield and renewed strength in the USD weighed on the market sentiment.
Such developments on the macro front saw investors resuming liquidating their ETF holdings this week. Silver prices fell further US$75/oz amid increasing economic growth concerns.
Corporate news in Australia
-Morgans backs Firmus Technologies IPO and promotes related exposure to Maas Group ((MGH))
-Telstra Group ((TLS)) integrates AI into board-level decision making to manage growing data complexity
-ACCC questions whether Woolworths Group ((WOW)) altered pricing practices following regulatory scrutiny
-Gina Rinehart’s company opens its financials as part of an ongoing royalty dispute
-Westpac ((WBC)) engages Bain & Company to assist with strategy and performance improvement
-Australia’s telecom sector faces pressure after backlash over a controversial triple-zero emergency services survey
On the calendar today:
-JP March CPI, PPI (services)
-UK March retail sales
-US April Uni of Mich sentiment
-INSIGNIA FINANCIAL LIMITED ((IFL)) Qtrly Update
-IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) Qtrly update
-IRESS LIMITED ((IRE)) AGM
-NEWMONT CORPORATION ((NEM)) Qtr Update
-PLS GROUP LIMITED ((PLS)) Qtrly Report
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 4708.60 | – 49.80 | – 1.05% |
| Silver (oz) | 75.45 | – 2.25 | – 2.90% |
| Copper (lb) | 6.03 | – 0.11 | – 1.82% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.64 | – 0.00 | – 0.26% |
| Nickel (lb) | 8.36 | + 0.11 | 1.35% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.57 | – 0.00 | – 0.25% |
| West Texas Crude | 97.00 | + 4.12 | 4.44% |
| Brent Crude | 105.88 | + 4.22 | 4.15% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 107.06 | – 0.05 | – 0.05% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days…
| Index | 23 Apr 2026 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Apr) | Quarter To Date (Apr-Jun) | Year To Date (2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8793.40 | -1.72% | 3.67% | 3.67% | 0.91% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| ARB | ARB Corp | Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Morgans |
| BAP | Bapcor | Downgrade to Trim from Hold | Morgans |
| BHP | BHP Group | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| BOQ | Bank of Queensland | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Macquarie | ||
| Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS | ||
| COH | Cochlear | Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight | Morgan Stanley |
| Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi | ||
| Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS | ||
| GLF | Gemlife Communities | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate | Morgans |
| HUB | Hub24 | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
| MQG | Macquarie Group | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS |
| MSV | Mitchell Services | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Morgans |
| NAB | National Australia Bank | Upgrade to Lighten from Sell | Ord Minnett |
| NCK | Nick Scali | Upgrade to Hold from Sell | Ord Minnett |
| SUL | Super Retail | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Morgans | ||
| TWE | Treasury Wine Estates | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
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