The Monday Report – 13 July 2026

Array
(
    [0] => Array
        (
            [0] => ((INA))
            [1] => ((PPC))
            [2] => ((MYX))
            [3] => ((SXL))
            [4] => ((NXT))
            [5] => ((MQG))
            [6] => ((BCN))
            [7] => ((CKF))
            [8] => ((QUB))
            [9] => ((TRA))
        )

    [1] => Array
        (
            [0] => INA
            [1] => PPC
            [2] => MYX
            [3] => SXL
            [4] => NXT
            [5] => MQG
            [6] => BCN
            [7] => CKF
            [8] => QUB
            [9] => TRA
        )

)

This story features INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: INA
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

US markets closed higher on Friday despite the on-again, off-again tit-for-tat exchange of hostilities between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.

The Australian market closed higher on Friday.

While ASX200 futures are pointing to another positive start, Middle East tensions could overshadow the narrative as the US and Iran continue to exchange fire.

Good Morning,

The ASX200 rallied late on Friday, rising 44 points, or 0.5%, to end the week down -38 points, or -0.43%, at 8,806.

This was broadly in line with the levels at which the index has closed over the past four weeks.

Materials led the declines on weaker commodity prices, falling -5.29%, while Energy rallied 3.19% on higher oil prices as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz escalated (yet again).

As IG reports, the Australian interest rate market starts the week pricing in around 6bps of tightening for the RBA’s August meeting, with a cumulative 14bps of rate hikes priced in for the remainder of 2026.

Today’s Big Picture, J.L. Bernstein extract

SK Hynix’s Debut Reshuffled The Chip Trade

SK Hynix priced at US$149, opened at US$170, and raised US$26.5 billion, the largest U.S. listing a foreign company has ever done.

The catch: Micron and the other memory names slipped as buyers rotated into the new name.

The AI trade isn’t fading. It’s just picking new favorites.

The Week Ended Green, Iran And All

The S&P500 and Nasdaq closed out a winning week even as the U.S. and Iran traded fire again.

That’s the tell worth noticing: the market is treating the conflict as a headline, not a threat to earnings.

Nvidia and Meta did most of the lifting.

Oil Slipped As Iran Talks Restarted

Oil eased today after Qatar and Pakistan helped nudge the U.S. and Iran back toward the table.

Bigger picture, the IEA now sees global oil demand falling this year, the first drop since 2020.

Keep in mind, inventories are thin, so any flare-up still moves prices fast.

ANZ Bank Australian Market Focus, extract

President Trump said the ceasefire with Iran is over, as the conflict escalated over the weekend.

US equities wavered on the news but closed the week in the green.

The reaction in fixed income and oil was limited.

The S&P500 closed 0.4% higher with the Dow up 0.3%. In Europe, the EuroStoxx50 fell -0.2%, while the FTSE100 rose 0.2%.

The yield on the US 10y Treasury note rose 1bp to 4.56%.

In commodities, the active WTI future fell -0.9% to US$71.4/bbl. Gold rose 0.5% to US$4,119.9/oz. 

The Middle East conflict escalated over the weekend. The US launched a third round of strikes on Iranian targets after a Cyprus-flagged container ship was damaged in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran responded with missile and drone attacks across the Gulf. Iran has said the Strait is closed until further notice, but the US and maritime authorities maintain that shipping can still transit the waterway.

The latest exchange of strikes has raised fresh doubts about the prospects of a lasting agreement, despite continuing diplomatic contacts.

Key themes and views from data-dependent Fed:

Financial markets have continued to pare expectations of near-term rate hikes from the Fed. Markets see around a 25% chance of the Fed hiking in July and a roughly 70% chance of a hike by September.

The minutes from the FOMC’s June meeting, released earlier this week, pointed to the Fed remaining data dependent. While a few participants did see a case for a hike in June, ultimately the decision to hold was unanimous.

Members discussed scenarios in which inflation would begin to ease soon as tariff impacts and the energy price shock fade, and others in which inflation proves persistent.

Members assessed that maintaining or eventually lowering rates would be appropriate if the first scenario plays out, while some policy tightening would be appropriate if there is a lack of progress.

In our assessment, that does not signal any urgency to adjust policy, and ultimately the evolution of inflation in coming months will determine the path for monetary policy.

This week, the US June CPI is due out. It is expected to show annual headline and core inflation have peaked. The headline CPI is expected to fall 0.1% m/m (3.8% y/y), reflecting lower oil prices, while the core measure is expected to be subdued, rising 0.2% m/m (2.8% y/y).

The exogenous shocks of tariffs and higher energy prices are not something that monetary policy can compensate for directly, and we think that as these shocks dissipate over coming months, underlying disinflation will resume.

That underpins our expectation that the Fed will remain on hold this year, although that view is inevitably dependent on how the inflation data evolve over the coming months.

US Market Call: Great Expectations, Ed Yardeni & Toby Hearst extract

The S&P500 has been meandering around 7,500 since mid-May. Earnings should continue to drive the stock market higher.

However, investors may be fretting that expectations for the upcoming earnings reporting season are so high that if they aren’t exceeded, the market might swoon again in July as it did in June.

If so, dip buyers are likely to limit the downside. We still expect the S&P500 to hit 8,250 by year-end.

Consider the following:

(1) Earnings. Fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO) moderated slightly heading into the Q2 2026 earnings season. S&P500 companies’ aggregate forward earnings per share reached another record high last week as the consensus 2027 EPS estimate edged higher, while the 2026 estimate eased.

Forward earnings are expected to converge with the 2027 estimate by the end of this year, and that estimate is likely to continue rising. If it reaches US$412.50 by year-end, a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 20.0 would imply an S&P500 level of 8,250.

Alternatively, the index could reach that level with earnings of US$400 and a 20.6 multiple.

Analysts trimmed aggregate Q2 earnings expectations slightly last week, but forecasts remain robust, with consensus pointing to 21.6% year-on-year growth on a like-for-unlike basis. Expectations for Q3 and Q4 are currently similarly strong.

On a pro forma basis, comparing the current S&P500 constituents with the same companies a year earlier, expected Q2 earnings growth is even stronger at 23.7%. The Energy and Information Technology sectors are leading earnings growth, while Health Care continues to lag.

Given the strength of current expectations, upside surprises may be difficult to achieve. That could weigh on market sentiment through the remainder of July and into early August. However, if companies simply meet rather than exceed expectations, any weakness is likely to attract dip buyers.

(2) Breadth. Market breadth remains healthy, with revenue growth increasingly translating into earnings gains beyond the S&P500. Forward earnings for the S&P400 MidCap and S&P600 SmallCap indices are also reaching record highs.

The S&P500’s collective forward profit margin recently rose to a record 16.1%. Profit margins for the S&P400 and S&P600 remain lower but are also approaching previous highs.

The Magnificent Seven have regained some momentum after underperforming for much of the year. Even so, the group remains up just 2.6% year-to-date, compared with 14.3% for the S&P500 excluding the Magnificent Seven and 10.7% for the overall index.

Market concentration has also eased, with the ratio of the S&P100 to the S&P500 declining to 0.49, remaining well below its dot-com era peak of 0.55.

(3) Rotation. Value stocks continue to perform well and could extend gains as the earnings season unfolds. Expectations for S&P500 Growth companies may prove overly optimistic, creating scope for a rotation out of crowded growth names into Financials and other value-oriented sectors should earnings disappoint.

Another sign of a broadening bull market is the Russell2000, which has continued to strengthen since bottoming on March 30 and has moved to new highs.

(4) Outperformers. Employment-related stocks continue to perform strongly, consistent with a resilient labour market, led by ADP. June’s weaker-than-expected payrolls data had little impact on the sector.

Technology remains resilient despite ongoing concerns about a correction. Semiconductor shares have retreated from recent highs, but further weakness could present buying opportunities.

Memory chip manufacturers also remain in a longer-term uptrend despite recent pullbacks, with Micron and SanDisk both more than -15% below their all-time highs.

Health Care is also attracting renewed investor interest, particularly Biotechnology and Pharmaceuticals, which continue to outperform.

Financials appear well positioned ahead of what is expected to be a favourable earnings season. Broker-dealers, capital markets firms and banks continue to perform well, supported by solid loan demand and robust investment banking activity. Banks may also boost earnings by reducing loan-loss provisions.

(5) Credit. Private credit exchange-traded funds remain under pressure, although this is not viewed as signalling a broader economy-wide credit crunch.

Commercial bank lending continues to expand, while the Invesco KBW Bank ETF has reached a record high.

Share prices of consumer credit companies have also been trending higher, providing another encouraging signal for the credit environment.

Margin debt has risen alongside equity markets to a record high. However, elevated margin debt has historically been an unreliable indicator of an imminent bear market.

Corporate news in Australia:

• Ingenia Communities Group ((INA)) confirms preliminary takeover discussions with Peet Ltd ((PPC))
• Mayne Pharma Group ((MYX)) investors call for a company break-up after failed takeover proposal
• Gull New Zealand and NPD merge to create a NZ$1bn fuel retail group
• Southern Cross Media Group ((SXL)) exits View Media Group, selling its minority stake for $1 and writing off its investment
• NextDC ((NXT)) secures an additional $500m in debt facilities to fund data centre roll-out
• Jarden plans a capital raising to increase employee ownership to 70%
• Macquarie Group ((MQG)) reopens 17 private credit funds following a review

On The Calendar Today

-BEACON MINERALS LIMITED ((BCN)) ex-div 25.50c (100%)

-COLLINS FOODS LIMITED ((CKF)) ex-div 15.00c (100%)

-QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED ((QUB)) ex-div 34.65c (100%)

-TURNERS AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED ((TRA)) ex-div 7.39c (85%)

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author’s and not by association FNArena’s – see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts on the website and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: “Your Feedback (Thank You)” – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms