GARDA PROPERTY GROUP (GDF)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

06/08/2024

1

Add

$1.59

32.50%

Garda Property's FY24 result appears to have fallen a touch shy of Morgans' expectation.

The company closed the year with gearing of 36.5% and hedging of 69% and its ICR covenant stood at 1.5x.

The portfolio was valued at roughly $500m with an 80% weighting to industrial following the $100m sale of a Melbourne office with a weighted average lease expiry of 4.8 years.

Add rating retained. Target price falls to $1.59 from $1.65.

FORECAST
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 6.30 cents.
Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.20 cents and EPS of 6.40 cents.

23/10/2024

1

Buy

$1.66

38.33%

Garda Property has announced the sale of its industrial development site at North Lakes for $114.0m. The deal has several conditions attached, but these are anticipated to be satisfied by Q4 of FY25.

Moelis comments this deal allows Garda Property to reduce gearing to 22% (assuming all goes well). It is noted the deal has been concluded at a -2.4% discount to the independent on-completion value of $116.8m.

The broker notes it is the intention to make a one-off special distribution to assist security holders with the tax associated with the capital gain from the sale of North Lakes.

The broker also makes the point asset sales are materially accretive to earnings given proceeds will be used to retire most, if not all of the REIT's variable debt facilities.

Buy. Target lifts to $1.66. EPS and DPS forecasts made a small jump.

FORECAST
Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.20 cents and EPS of 6.80 cents.
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents.