SUMMERSET GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (SNZ)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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12/05/2026

1

Outperform

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Macquarie believes enhanced cash flow disclosures from Summerset Group understate the portfolio's mature earnings potential, with current FY25 CFEO yield at 1.1% versus 5.3% for more mature villages.

The broker sees several factors suppressing both cash flow and valuation metrics and estimates mature CFEO yield could improve by around 180bps to 7.1%, or 8.5% excluding head office costs.

The portfolio's mature cash generation potential of around NZ$320m is believed to more than support the current share price, even before development pipeline upside.

FY26 and FY27 EPS forecasts fall -5% and -6% due to new sales volumes changes, respectively, while the target price decreases to NZ$15.12 from NZ$15.86 because of lower near term earnings forecasts.

No change to Outperform.

FORECAST
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 89.06 cents.
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 19.97 cents and EPS of 100.03 cents.

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09/07/2026

3

Neutral

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Jarden maintains a Neutral rating for Summerset Group with a NZ$10.52 target price following a 2Q26 sales update.

Commentary observes resales momentum continues to perform well in line with turnover, while new sales reflect strong contracting and settlement activity at two of four new village centre buildings opened during 1H26.

The analyst notes the New Zealand delivery target for FY26 has been revised down by 50 homes to 600–650 units and beds, whereas the Australian pipeline remains on track to deliver 100–150 homes.

Refinancing margins held broadly flat with FY25 levels in 1H26, introducing potential upside if trends persist into 2H26.

Jarden remains cautious due to high leverage and substantial development priced into the valuation, with further operational details anticipated upon the 1H26 result release on 27 August 2026.