NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED (NHF)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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25/08/2026

3

Neutral

$7.40

12.98%

After another look, the target price is lowered to $7.40 from $7.60 and EPS forecasts are largely unchanged.

FY26 Australian Residents Health Insurance margin came under pressure from increased reliance on aggregator sales, which represented 45% of 2H sales, and premium discounting, with the latter detracting around -210bps from the 2H margin.

This potentially puts nib's 6%–7% net margin target at risk. The analyst expects the company to reset its sales strategy towards more profitable growth.

The implications for policy growth and market share remain uncertain, particularly if non-listed private health insurers continue competing aggressively. UBS remains cautious and retains Neutral.

First read: nib's FY26 result is broadly in line, with underlying operating profit around -1% below UBS' expectations, while NPAT was 3%–4% ahead due to stronger investment income.

Australian Residents Health Insurance was the key weakness, some -10% below expectations as policy growth slowed and net margins fell to 6.2%, partly offset by much stronger NZ earnings.

FY27 underlying operating profit guidance of $265–$285m is around -3% below consensus at the midpoint, with UBS cautious that weaker Australian health insurance momentum and the unusually strong 2H26 NZ margins will persist.

The broker nevertheless highlights balance sheet flexibility and potential capital management following the sale of nib Travel.

Neutral. Target $7.60.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents.

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25/08/2026

2

Overweight

$7.70

17.56%

Jarden maintains its Overweight recommendation for nib Holdings with an unchanged target price of $7.70 following a FY26 financial result featuring an underlying operating profit of $260.9m, which met expectations while reported net profit after tax reached $184.7m, driven by stronger investment income.

Underlying operating profit for the core Australian residents health insurance business fell -10% to $187.9m due to weaker-than-expected policyholder growth of 1.9% and a net margin deterioration to 6.2%.

Management declared a final dividend alongside an additional special dividend of 5.0c, signalling intentions for further capital management options following proceeds from nib Travel.

Guidance for FY27 group underlying operating profit was established at $265m to $285m, sitting slightly below market consensus at the midpoint.

The analyst notes that while short-term pressures on Australian residents health insurance gross margins and soft FY27 guidance may weigh on near-term trading, the stock remains well-supported by ongoing capital returns.