Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 06-02-26

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This story features ARENA REIT, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ARF
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday February 2 to Friday February 6, 2026
Total Upgrades: 23
Total Downgrades: 14
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 63.70%; Hold 28.45%; Sell 7.85%

For the week ending Friday, February 6, 2026, FNArena tracked twenty-three upgrades and fourteen downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

In the early stages of the February reporting season, there are around a dozen entries in FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor (https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/06/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-06-02-2026/), including commentary on Centuria Office REIT which received two ratings upgrades by separate brokers last week following interim results.

Mineral Resources also received two ratings upgrades after a strong operating performance in the December quarter with realised prices for iron ore and lithium spodumene exceeding consensus estimates, along with improved cost control, Ord Minnett noted.

Macquarie raised its FY26 EPS forecast for the company by 30%, with further upgrades of between 28-67% across FY27-30 following portfolio-wide changes to pricing forecasts.

This broker’s target was raised to $70 from $56 on earnings forecast upgrades plus a lift in valuation multiples.

Mineral Resources appears fourth on the table for positive change to average target price, preceded by gold miners Ramelius Resources, Genesis Minerals, and Newmont Corp with respective increases of 20%, 16%, and 9%.

No less than four brokers in the FNArena database conducted commodity price reviews last week.

Following the January gold price rally, Morgans remains bullish despite a recent correction, upgrading its price forecasts across FY26-FY29, as well as longer-term. 

The broker’s focus is on disciplined producers with strong execution and production-led cash flow growth, rather than just current free cash flow.

In the large-cap space, Newmont Corp is preferred over Northern Star Resources, and in the mid-cap space it is Ramelius Resources. The broker’s small-cap preference is Catalyst Metals.

Morgans upgraded its rating for Ramelius to Buy from Accumulate, while UBS downgraded to Neutral from Buy after setting a higher target price. (Note: the table below suggesting two downgrades includes Morgans first downgrading then upgrading the stock within three days).

Ramelius is also one of the preferred gold exposures at Shaw and Partners, which raised its gold price forecast by 53.8% in 2026 and predicts US$6500/oz in 2027, up from US$3,600/oz.

The company pre-released its headline second quarter metrics last week, showing costs less than Ord Minnett’s forecasts. All-in sustaining costs of -$1,977/oz compare to -$2,500/oz for peers due to high grade deposits, explained the analyst.

As mentioned above, Newmont is preferred at Morgans. The broker’s target price was raised to $190 from $162 and its rating upgraded to Buy from Hold due to higher gold price forecasts. For the same reason, UBS also raised its forecasts and target for Newmont.

The average target for Genesis Minerals rose by 16% due to a combination of higher gold price forecasts and a “strong” December quarter operational report, according to Macquarie, with management on track to meet FY26 guidance. 

On the flipside, the average target price for GrainCorp fell by nearly -16% last week after management provided earnings and profit guidance well below consensus estimates (profit warning).

Macquarie explained depressed supply chain margins have been a constant for the company over the past three years, driven by elevated global grain supplies, feeding into volumes with low prices inducing growers to move less grain through GrainCorp’s system.

This broker lowered its target to $6.60 from $8.30 and downgraded to Neutral from Outperform given a lack of near-term catalysts to support a lift in margins and earnings growth, combined with expected normalisation for the upcoming season.

For a more fulsome coverage of broker opinions on GrainCorp see FNArena’s article that is ready to be published later today.

Xero is currently providing a domestic example of the global turmoil for software company share prices and is placed second on the week’s table for negative change to price target.

As explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/05/is-ai-nemesis-or-opportunity-for-xero/, management last week addressed central concerns around AI monetisation, disruption, and a stronger growth outlook for the recently acquired payments-led workflow platform Melio.

Turning to earnings forecasts by brokers, here in the general dairy/nutrition space, New Zealand-based dairy processor Synlait and Australian infant and baby food nutrition company Bubs Australia appear first and third for negative changes.

During a first half performance update (January year-end), management at Synlait noted manufacturing challenges at the Dunsandel facility (large-scale dairy processing), which have now been largely resolved, but related cost and operational impacts still weigh, explained Macquarie.

Lower relative returns for the company’s commodities portfolio are also impacting negatively, pointed out the analyst.

As a result of these disappointments, first half earnings guidance was lowered and loss guidance was raised.

Management at Bubs Australia offered no FY26 guidance during a second quarter update which showed strong US sales growth, but as explained by Shaw and Partners, offset by inventory and trading challenges in Australia, China and the rest of the world (ROW). 

US infant formula growth was the main driver of revenue growth. Bell Potter raised its target to 18c from 17c and upgraded to Speculative Buy from Hold.

The percentage fall in Bubs’ projected earnings was exaggerated by the small forecast numbers involved, which helps explain the above positive commentary by analysts.

Uranium play Lotus Resources’ average target fell by -21% after a return to mining in the December quarter for the first time since 2014. Ord Minnett noted mill recoveries outperformed despite early start-up and acid supply issues.

Given production at nameplate levels and first U3O8 shipments have both been pushed back by one quarter, the broker trimmed its FY26 EPS forecast.

More positively, PLS Group and Bellevue Gold received a boost to average earnings forecasts of 51% and 9%, respectively.

Commenting on PLS Group’s December quarter report, Macquarie noted sales were 6% ahead of consensus and realised prices materially exceeded expectations. The lithium producer benefited from lagged pricing and the January lithium price rally, while production was broadly in line, the broker highlighted. Management maintained FY26 guidance.

In the current quarter, the board will assess a potential restart at Ngungaju (processing plant), the Indigenous ownership and profit participation structure at the Pilgangoora lithium mine in Western Australia.  Approval is contingent on confidence in sustained lithium market pricing, explained Macquarie.

The analyst at UBS likes Bellevue Gold as it approaches a cash “inflection point”. This broker’s target rose by 20c to $2.25 on the back of higher gold price forecasts.

Total Buy ratings for the eight stockbrokerages daily monitored by FNArena still sit at a historically elevated percentage of 63.70%.

With only 7.85% in Sell ratings, this leaves 28.45% for Neutral/Holds.

Upgrade

ARENA REIT ((ARF)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/1/0

UBS upgrades Arena REIT to Buy from Neutral and the target edges down to $4.05 from $4.06, noting that instead of rate cuts the market focus is now on rate hikes, with in-house economists expecting the cash rate to lift by 50 basis points this year.

The rate backdrop may have turned less favourable for the real estate sector but the broker does not expect a repeat of 2022/23 when asset values corrected around -15-20%. A lack of supply is expected to underpin income growth and rising debt costs should be countered by a more proactive hedging/debt margin compression.

The broker has taken a review of the earnings profile across its coverage and forecasts “solid” FY26-29 compound growth in EPS of 5.3%.

UBS assesses the key downside risk for Arena REIT is any acceleration in the supply of new childcare centres amid broad declines in centre occupancy.

BUBS AUSTRALIA LIMITED ((BUB)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 3/0/0

Bubs Australia’s Dec Q net revenue of $29.9m was up 4% year on year. US infant formula growth was up 46% to $17.4m and the main driver of revenue growth, Bell Potter notes.

Product manufacturing costs were up 60% and correspond to the previously disclosed requirement to reset inventory positions in the US. Bubs continues to progress with its US FDA application for permanent access.

Bell Potter upgrades to Buy (Speculative) from Hold. Dec Q revenue growth was consistent with expectations and new management looks to be increasing brand support, resulting in a more consistent US revenue profile.

Target rises to 18c from 17c.

CHARTER HALL GROUP ((CHC)) Upgrade to Buy from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 3/2/0

UBS upgrades Charter Hall to Buy from Sell and its target to $26.50 from $19.93, noting that instead of rate cuts the market focus is now on rate hikes, with in-house economists expecting the cash rate to lift by 50 basis points this year.

The rate backdrop may have turned less favourable for the real estate sector but the broker does not expect a repeat of 2022/23 when asset values corrected around -15-20%.

A lack of supply is expected to underpin income growth and rising debt costs should be countered by a more proactive hedging/debt margin compression.

The broker’s analysis signals that once volatile performance and transaction fees are excluded, the REIT’s funds management multiple is in line with its 10-year trailing average.

Coverage of Charter Hall has been transferred to Solomon Zhang with this note.

CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP ((CNI)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 1/4/0

UBS upgrades Centuria Capital to Neutral from Sell, reducing the target to $2.03 from $2.10, noting that instead of rate cuts the market focus is now on rate hikes, with in-house economists expecting the cash rate to lift by 50 basis points this year.

The rate backdrop may have turned less favourable for the real estate sector but the broker does not expect a repeat of 2022/23 when asset values corrected around -15-20%.

A lack of supply is expected to underpin income growth and rising debt costs should be countered by more proactive hedging/debt margin compression.

The broker has taken a review of the earnings profile across its coverage and forecasts “solid” FY26-29 compound growth in EPS of 5.3%.

For Centuria Capital UBS believes the recent rate pivot will cause retail demand for fund product to soften and this will mean a slower recovery in earnings growth compared with expectations.

Still, valuation is now seen as largely reflecting these headwinds.

CENTURIA OFFICE REIT ((COF)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS and Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 0/3/1

UBS upgrades Centuria Office REIT to Neutral from Sell, with the target reduced to $1.03 from $1.20.

The broker considers the “downtime” over FY25/26 has dragged on earnings yet, while there are leasing headwinds, the issues are known and largely priced in, suggesting the risk/reward is more balanced.

Instead of rate cuts the market focus is now on rate hikes, with in-house economists expecting the cash rate to lift by 50 basis points this year.

The rate backdrop may have turned less favourable for the real estate sector but the broker does not expect a repeat of 2022/23 when asset values corrected around -15-20%.

A lack of supply is expected to underpin income growth and rising debt costs should be countered by more proactive hedging/debt margin compression.

Centuria Office REIT’s 1H26 result was marginally below expectations, though FY26 guidance was reaffirmed and leasing outcomes materially de-risked the previously flagged lease expiry cliff, Bell Potter highlights.

Balance sheet metrics improved with lower gearing, higher valuations, and NTA growth, supported by asset sales and positive revaluations. Pro-forma gearing fell to 42.5% from 44% in FY25, and property valuations rose 2.2%.

However, sizeable vacancies at key assets and remaining 2H26 expiries are likely to cap upside, in the broker’s view, limiting the scope for a top-end FY26 FFO outcome.

Target unchanged at $1.05. Rating upgraded to Hold from Sell as the broker believes downside risks are now better contained, leading to a more balanced risk–reward profile.

ELEVRA LITHIUM LIMITED ((ELV)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/0/0

In early January, Macquarie downgraded all lithium producers under coverage, questioning the sustainability of the sharp lithium price rally and its implications for long-term value creation at these companies.

Many lithium equities have declined by double digits in recent days. Macquarie expects lithium consumption activity to soften through February.

On the recent sell-off, the broker upgrades Elevra Lithium to Outperform from Neutral. Target unchanged at $8.50.

EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/3/2

Morgans remains bullish on gold despite a recent correction, upgrading its price forecasts across FY26-FY29 and long term following the January rally. 

In terms of gold stocks, the broker’s focus is on disciplined producers with strong execution and production-led cash flow growth, rather than just current free cash flow.

In the large-cap space, Newmont Corp is preferred over Northern Star Resources, and in the mid-cap, it is Ramelius Resources. Small-cap preference is Catalyst Metals.

Target price for Evolution Mining lifted to $14.30 from $13.20. Rating upgraded to Hold from Trim.

This report was published February 3.

GLOBAL LITHIUM RESOURCES LIMITED ((GL1)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/0/0

In early January, Macquarie  downgraded all lithium producers under coverage, questioning the sustainability of the sharp lithium price rally and its implications for long-term value creation at these companies.

Many lithium equities have declined by double digits in recent days. Macquarie expects lithium consumption activity to soften through February.

On the recent sell-off, the broker upgrades Global Lithium Resources to Outperform from Neutral. Target unchanged at 65c.

GPT GROUP ((GPT)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 4/2/0

UBS upgrades GPT Group to Buy from Neutral and raises the target to $6.00 from $5.55, noting that instead of rate cuts the market focus is now on rate hikes, with in-house economists expecting the cash rate to lift by 50 basis points this year.

The rate backdrop may have turned less favourable for the real estate sector but the broker does not expect a repeat of 2022/23 when asset values corrected around -15-20%. A lack of supply is expected to underpin income growth and rising debt costs should be countered by more proactive hedging/debt margin compression.

The broker has taken a review of the earnings profile across its coverage and forecasts “solid” FY26-29 compound growth in EPS of 5.3%.

The main downside risks for the stock are a slower-than-expected leasing of vacancies across office exposures, higher redemptions and outflows from GWOF and slower unattributed growth across the funds platform.

Coverage of GPT Group has been transferred to Solomon Zhang with this note.

LIONTOWN LIMITED ((LTR)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/1

In early January, Macquarie downgraded all lithium producers under coverage, questioning the sustainability of the sharp lithium price rally and its implications for long-term value creation at these companies.

Many lithium equities have declined by double digits in recent days. Macquarie expects lithium consumption activity to soften through February.

On the recent sell-off, the broker upgrades Liontown to Neutral from Underperform. Target unchanged at $1.70.

MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((MGH)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Maas Group is to sell its Construction Materials (CM) division, pivoting the business to focus on digital, AI and electrification infrastructure. The pivot is cornerstoned by a $100m investment in Firmus, Morgans notes, further aligning and supporting the recent JLE contract win.

Based on the share price reaction, Maas is now reflecting a negative implied equity value for the Civil Construction and Hire (CC&H) division. Even excluding the pivot to electrification, the discount being applied to the Civil business is excessive, Morgans suggests.

The Maas investment thesis has pivoted with the sale of CM, Morgans notes. Maas now has $550m of net cash and is well positioned to expand further into digital, AI and electrification infrastructure – a vertical which offers 20%-plus return on capital projects.

Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate. Target falls to $5.10 from $5.45.

MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett and Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/1/1

Ord Minnett notes Mineral Resources provided a strong operating performance in the December quarter with realised prices for iron ore and lithium spodumene exceeding consensus estimates. Cost control was also in evidence.

The company is now on track for annualised free cash flow of around $2bn per annum on the broker’s numbers, allowing it to continue reducing its debt position.

Estimates for EPS are raised by 4.9% for FY26 with the target rising to $65 from $64. Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold on valuation.

The highlight of Mineral Resources’ December quarter report was production beats across key assets, driving a reduction in net debt to $4.9bn, Macquarie points out. 

The broker notes improved lithium asset performance underpinned higher production guidance, while Onslow continues to push capacity limits. 

FY26 EPS forecast lifted by 30%, with further upgrades of 28-67% in FY27-30 following portfolio-wide assumption changes. Target rises to $70 from $56 on earnings upgrades plus a lift in valuation multiples to 8x from 6.5x.

Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

NEWMONT CORPORATION REGISTERED ((NEM)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/0/0

Morgans remains bullish on gold despite a recent correction, upgrading its price forecasts across FY26-FY29 and long term following the January rally. 

In terms of gold stocks, the broker’s focus is on disciplined producers with strong execution and production-led cash flow growth, rather than just current free cash flow.

In the large-cap space, Newmont Corp is preferred over Northern Star Resources, and in the mid-cap, it is Ramelius Resources. Small-cap preference is Catalyst Metals.

Target price for Newmont lifted to $190 from $162. Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.

This report was published February 3.

NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED ((NST)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/1/1

Morgans remains bullish on gold despite a recent correction, upgrading its price forecasts across FY26-FY29 and long term following the January rally. 

In terms of gold stocks, the broker’s focus is on disciplined producers with strong execution and production-led cash flow growth, rather than just current free cash flow.

In the large-cap space, Newmont Corp is preferred over Northern Star Resources, and in the mid-cap, it is Ramelius Resources. Small-cap preference is Catalyst Metals.

Target price for Northern Star lifted to $33 from $26. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.

This report was published February 3.

See also NST downgrade.

PLS GROUP LIMITED ((PLS)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/5/0

Morgans upgrades PLS Group to Hold from Trim with an unchanged target price of $4.60 post a robust 2Q26 result.

Spodumene sales beat the analyst’s and consensus expectations by 9%/6%, respectively, of 232kt, with revenue up 49% q/q to $373m. Higher realised prices assisted and unit costs were stable.

Cash rose 12% q/q to $954m and the broker expects a net cash position around $500m at the 1H26 result.

Management reiterated FY26 guidance with the possibility of the Ngungaju plant being restarted, which could produce up to 200ktpa of spodumene.

The earnings forecasts now include the restart of the Ngungaju plant in FY27 (from FY28) previously, Morgans points out.

PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LIMITED ((PNI)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Morgans upgrades Pinnacle Investment Management to Buy from Accumulate and lowers its target price to $23.21 from $26.30.

The analyst points to 1H26 net profit after tax as a miss on consensus by -4%, but excluding one-off items it was basically in line and was, under the surface, a more robust result than the numbers infer.

Pinnacle announced it will acquire the remaining circa 79% of its UK affiliate, Pacific Asset Management, for -GBP212m or -$418m with a -GBP121m cash component and GBP91.8m in shares issued at $17.157.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts for FY26 by -7% on the softer than expected 1H26 result and EPS dilution from the equity issuance, while raising the FY27 EPS estimate by 8% for the earnings accretion from this acquisition.

PANTORO GOLD LIMITED ((PNR)) Upgrade to Buy from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/1/0

Morgans remains bullish on gold despite a recent correction, upgrading its price forecasts across FY26-FY29 and long term following the January rally. 

In terms of gold stocks, the broker’s focus is on disciplined producers with strong execution and production-led cash flow growth, rather than just current free cash flow.

In the large-cap space, Newmont Corp is preferred over Northern Star Resources, and in the mid-cap, it is Ramelius Resources. Small-cap preference is Catalyst Metals.

Target price for Pantoro Gold lifted to $6.04 from $5.00, after increasing FY26 revenue forecast by 8%, with no change to FY27. Rating upgraded to Buy from Trim.

This report was published February 3.

RESMED INC ((RMD)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 6/0/0

Morgans saw ResMed yet again delivering a better-than-forecast quarterly performance, describing the December quarter update as a “beat across the board.” It featured double-digit revenue and earnings growth, further gross margin expansion and solid cash generation.

As operating leverage improved again, forecasts have been ever so slightly increased. Commentary highlights gross margin gains from manufacturing and logistics efficiencies.

Management has tightened FY26 guidance to 62-63% (from 61-63%), reinforcing confidence in ongoing margin progression, the broker notes.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate as, despite the quarterly ‘beat’, the stock’s valuation remains below historical averages. The broker adds fundamentals are sound, with the outlook supported by structural tailwinds from GLP-1-driven therapies, expanding diagnosis and profitability.

Price target lifts to $47.73 from $47.04.

RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RMS)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Morgans remains bullish on gold despite a recent correction, upgrading its price forecasts across FY26-FY29 and long term following the January rally. 

In terms of gold stocks, the broker’s focus is on disciplined producers with strong execution and production-led cash flow growth, rather than just current free cash flow.

In the large-cap space, Newmont Corp is preferred over Northern Star Resources, and in the mid-cap, it is Ramelius Resources. Small-cap preference is Catalyst Metals.

Target price for Ramelius Resources lifted to $5.76 from $5.50. Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.

This report was published February 3.

See also RMS downgrade.

REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/1/2

Morgans remains bullish on gold despite a recent correction, upgrading its price forecasts across FY26-FY29 and long term following the January rally. 

In terms of gold stocks, the broker’s focus is on disciplined producers with strong execution and production-led cash flow growth, rather than just current free cash flow.

In the large-cap space, Newmont Corp is preferred over Northern Star Resources, and in the mid-cap, it is Ramelius Resources. Small-cap preference is Catalyst Metals.

Target price for Regis Resources lifted to $9.13 from $8.05 after raising the revenue forecast by 7%, with no change to FY27. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.

This report was published February 3.

VICINITY CENTRES ((VCX)) Upgrade to Buy from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 1/3/1

UBS upgrades Vicinity Centres to Buy from Sell and raises the target to $2.80 from $2.42, noting that instead of rate cuts the market focus is now on rate hikes, with in-house economists expecting the cash rate to lift by 50 basis points this year.

The rate backdrop may have turned less favourable for the real estate sector but the broker does not expect a repeat of 2022/23 when asset values corrected around -15-20%.

A lack of supply is expected to underpin income growth and rising debt costs should be countered by more proactive hedging/debt margin compression.

The broker has taken a review of the earnings profile across its coverage and forecasts “solid” FY26-29 compound growth in EPS of 5.3%.

The broker expects retail A-REITs to be the main beneficiaries of the current macro environment and prefers Vicinity Centres over Scentre Group because of its stronger EPS growth profile at a lower PE multiple.

Coverage of Vicinity Centres has been transferred to Solomon Zhang with this note.

Downgrade

AMCOR PLC ((AMC)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Ord Minnett downgrades Amcor to Accumulate from Buy with a lower target of $70 from $73 post the December quarter update. Packaging volumes fell -2% y/y, but this was noted as an improvement from the -3% decline in the prior quarter.

Management offered FY26 EPS guidance of US$4-US$4.15 per share, as well as March quarter guidance of US$0.90-US$1 per share, which infers to the analyst operating earnings in the June quarter will be -US$200m lower than the March quarter.

Positively, Ord Minnett highlights that recent US industry scanner data shows volume growth in Amcor’s key customer segments had risen in the four weeks to January 24, the first rise in more than 12 months.

The broker trims EPS estimates by -0.2% for FY26 while lowering the FY27 forecast by -3.7% due to higher cost expectations.

BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 0/3/4

UBS downgrades Beach Energy to Sell from Neutral as limited uplift in dividends or total shareholder returns is expected over the next 12-24 months due to prioritisation of capital toward M&A and exploration.

1H26 result was in line with the broker’s forecast and beat consensus, driven by lower operating costs

While the company has ample liquidity and a broad pipeline of growth options, these are largely greenfield and capex-intensive, the broker explains. This means cash returns might be deferred further, and with major investment decisions complicated by uncertainty around Australia’s Domestic Gas Review until late 2026.

FY26-27 EPS forecasts lifted by 1-2%. The broker trimmed the target price to $1.05 from $1.15 on roll forward.

CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT ((CLW)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 1/3/1

UBS downgrades Charter Hall Long WALE REIT to Sell from Neutral and reduces the target to $3.75 from $4.55. Commentary states the stock is vulnerable to earnings downgrades amid limited self-help initiatives outside of asset sales.

Instead of rate cuts the market focus is now on rate hikes, with in-house economists expecting the cash rate to lift by 50 basis points this year.

The rate backdrop may have turned less favourable for the real estate sector but the broker does not expect a repeat of 2022/23 when asset values corrected around -15-20%.

A lack of supply is expected to underpin income growth and rising debt costs should be countered by more proactive hedging/debt margin compression.

Coverage of Charter Hall Long WALE REIT has been transferred to Solomon Zhang with this note.

DEXUS ((DXS)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 2/2/1

UBS downgrades Dexus to Neutral from Buy, reducing the target to $7.34 from $8.60.

Commentary suggests there remains value on offer at the current discount to NTA of -23%, but the broker envisages lower earnings growth throughout FY27 will be an impediment to unlocking value.

Instead of rate cuts the market focus is now on rate hikes, with in-house economists expecting the cash rate to lift by 50 basis points this year.

The rate backdrop may have turned less favourable for the real estate sector but the broker does not expect a repeat of 2022/23 when asset values corrected around -15-20%.

A lack of supply is expected to underpin income growth and rising debt costs should be countered by more proactive hedging/debt margin compression.

The broker has taken a review of the earnings profile across its coverage and forecasts “solid” FY26-29 compound growth in EPS of 5.3%.

UBS believes GPT Group ((GPT)) is an “easier” exposure to office markets.

GRAINCORP LIMITED ((GNC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Depressed supply chain margins have been a constant for GrainCorp the past three years, Macquarie notes, driven by elevated global grain supplies.

This has also fed into volumes with low prices inducing growers to move less grain through GrainCorp’s system.

Macquarie thinks there is also a structural element considering GrainCorp’s market share is down -10ppts versus prior large seasons (FY22/23).

Northern east coast areas have seen back-to-back bumper harvests with Victoria recovering in the 25/26 season.

Rainfall in the coming months will shape the next season and there are some pockets of dryness emerging. At this stage the broker expects a 26/27 east coast winter harvest down -15% year on year.

A lack of catalysts near term to support a lift in margins and earnings growth, combined with normalisation in the season ahead, drives Macquarie’s downgrade to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to $6.60 from $8.30.

NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED ((NST)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 4/1/1

UBS global strategy team has upgraded near-term gold pricing, viewing US$5,200/oz as sustainable for the balance of 2026, before “tapering”.

Across the Australian stock coverage, gold equities are pricing between US$3,235/oz and US$4,200/oz compared to the broker’s new peak forecast (US$5,200/oz).

The analyst downgrades Northern Star Resources to Sell from Neutral due to valuation concern with recent operational issues and lower leverage to the gold price upgrade from reduced production and hedge book. Target price rises to $28.30 from $26.90

UBS lifts EPS forecasts by 12% for 2026 and 26% for 2027 due to the higher gold price assumption.

See also NST upgrade.

ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED ((OBM)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Ora Banda Mining’s December quarter (2Q26) production of 32koz missed Macquarie’s and consensus expectations, and AISC (cost) of $3,505/oz was materially higher. This led to a 16% increase in FY26 cost guidance, with growth capex also lifted by $57m.

Higher costs drove downgrades to the broker’s EPS forecasts of -25% for FY26 and -10% for FY27.  

Positively, the broker notes drilling results remain encouraging and acceleration of the 3Mtpa plant study could provide upside if ongoing exploration success converts into reserves.

Target cut to $1.40 from $1.50. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

PROTEOMICS INTERNATIONAL LABORATORIES LIMITED ((PIQ)) Downgrade to Trim from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/0/0

Morgans downgrades Proteomics International Laboratories to Trim from Hold with an unchanged target of 43c on the 2Q26 report, which revealed a soft financial performance including operating cash outflows of around -$2.9m with limited customer receipts.

The analyst highlights the R&D rebate of $2.7m was the only metric keeping operating cash flow near breakeven.

A new CEO has removed the DTC strategy, which is viewed as acknowledgement of the internal challenges around skillsets and headcount.

The recent share price rally is considered as “speculative” and sentiment driven around the removal of DTC. Currently, Morgans would prefer to stay on the bench and watch from the sidelines.

PERSEUS MINING LIMITED ((PRU)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 0/4/0

UBS global strategy team has upgraded near-term gold pricing, viewing US$5,200/oz as sustainable for the balance of 2026, before “tapering”.

Across the Australian stock coverage, gold equities are pricing between US$3,235/oz and US$4,200/oz compared to the broker’s new peak forecast (US$5,200/oz).

The analyst downgrades Perseus Mining to Neutral from Buy due to higher costs (royalties) and the recent share price strength. Target price rises to $7.10 from $6.65.

UBS lowers FY26 EPS forecast by -9% and raises FY27 by 9%

RURAL FUNDS GROUP ((RFF)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 1/1/0

UBS downgrades Rural Funds to Neutral from Buy with the target edging up to $2.11 from $2.10. Instead of rate cuts the market focus is now on rate hikes, with in-house economists expecting the cash rate to lift by 50 basis points this year.

The rate backdrop may have turned less favourable for the real estate sector but the broker does not expect a repeat of 2022/23 when asset values corrected around -15-20%.

A lack of supply is expected to underpin income growth and rising debt costs should be countered by more proactive hedging/debt margin compression.

For Rural Funds, the share price has been observed under pressure amid ongoing balance sheet/growth concerns, although performance has improved recently. UBS emphasises there is still value on offer but the short term is mixed.

REGION GROUP ((RGN)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/2/1

UBS downgrades Region Group to Sell from Neutral and reduces the target to $2.15 from $2.40.

While the fundamentals appear “fine”, the broker notes the stock is trading on the highest PE and P/NTA multiple among its retail peers while offering the lowest three-year EPS growth based on estimates.

Instead of rate cuts the market focus is now on rate hikes, with in-house economists expecting the cash rate to lift by 50 basis points this year.

The rate backdrop may have turned less favourable for the real estate sector but the broker does not expect a repeat of 2022/23 when asset values corrected around -15-20%.

A lack of supply is expected to underpin income growth and rising debt costs should be countered by more proactive hedging/debt margin compression.

Coverage of Region Group has been transferred to Solomon Zhang with this note.

RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RMS)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS and Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/0

UBS global strategy team has upgraded near-term gold pricing, viewing US$5,200/oz as sustainable for the balance of 2026, before “tapering”.

Across the Australian stock coverage, gold equities are pricing between US$3,235/oz and US$4,200/oz compared to the broker’s new peak forecast (US$5,200/oz).

The analyst downgrades Ramelius Resources to Neutral from Buy with a higher target of $5.20 from $4.20.

UBS lfts EPS forecasts by 24% for FY26 and 35% for FY27.

Ramelius Resources reported its Dec Q result, delivering production of 45.6koz at a cost of A$1,977/oz. Ramelius remains on track to meet FY26 guidance of 185-205koz at a cost of $1,700-$1,900/oz, Morgans notes.

Importantly, Morgans points out, development at Dalgaranga has now accessed the high-grade Never Never orebody, with initial development ore stockpiled, providing a positive lead indicator for grade uplift into coming quarters.

With the long-term vision for Mt Magnet-Dalgaranga now outlined, Morgans sees Ramelius as the standout gold producer on the ASX, capable of delivering both earnings and growth – two attributes typically not synonymous.

Target rises to $5.50 from $4.50, rating pulled back to Accumulate from Buy on valuation.

See also RMS upgrade.

TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED ((TWE)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 0/3/2

After re-assessing the investment thesis for Treasury Wine Estates, UBS downgraded to Sell from Neutral, despite significant share price declines.

The broker reckons structural industry headwinds persist, including weaker alcohol demand among younger consumers, wine underperformance versus RTDs (ready to drink) and spirits. Additionally, conditions are particularly challenging in China and the US.

Company-specific issues compound this, the broker explains, with elevated Penfolds grey-market inventory in China, mixed US execution and distributor risk, and elevated gearing limiting financial flexibility.

FY26 EPS forecast cut by -1.2% and FY27 by -1.5% after factoring in FX, with the broker’s forecast now -5% and -13% below consensus, respectively.

UBS trims the target to $4.75 from $5.25 on earnings downgrade and lower multiple of 11.3x from 11.5x.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup <img alt="3dbar" src="https://www.fnarena.com/charts/fnarena/3dbar.php?mydata=1&mylabels=BellPotter,Citi,Macquarie,MorganStanley,Morgans,OrdMinnett,ShawandPartners,UBS&b0=233,149,180,102,260,255,170,144&h0=130,137,170,107,164,150,26,173&s0=11,27,41,52,31,37,5,30″ style=”border:1px solid #000000″>

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