Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 16-01-26

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This story features AMP LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMP
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday January 12 to Friday January 16, 2026
Total Upgrades: 15
Total Downgrades: 12
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 62.89%; Hold 29.39%; Sell 7.72%

Australia is gradually waking up from last year’s end-of-year holiday break.

For the week ending Friday, 16th January 2026, FNArena registered no less than 15 upgrades in ratings for ASX-listed stocks. All but two shifted to Buy with Baby Bunting and PLS Group (formerly Pilbara Minerals) the two exceptions that didn’t move beyond Neutral/Hold.

Twelve downgrades included four ratings moving to Sell. Receivers were Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, Boss Energy, Endeavour Group, and Treasury Wine Estates.

This early into the new calendar year, the three Dominant Themes are: upgrades for commodity pricing projections, companies issuing disappointing market updates (mostly), and initial re-appraisals and previews ahead of the upcoming February results season.

Five of the upgrades went to financials, including two banks, and three REITs and property owners. Only Monadelphous and PLS Group can be directly linked to the resurgence in cyclical commodities.

Among the downgrades one also finds Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, Endeavour Group, and Super Retail Group; all three also received an upgrade during the week.

Maybe more important is the observation four resources stocks are among the downgrades.

The presence of Amcor in changes to target prices and forecasts should be ignored. Its shares are about to consolidate 5-for-1 and this is playing havoc because of analysts adjusting for the change (not yet reflected in today’s share price).

Resources continue to dominate the table for largest positive adjustments to valuations and price targets. The one exception is Codan, thanks to a better-than-anticipated operational update ahead of February.

Lithium exposures are noticeably included in the week’s Top Ten (nine minus Amcor).

The table for negative adjustments has Super Retail on top (bottom?) following yet another disappointing market update.

Here uranium companies Boss Energy and Lotus Resources are the two sole commodity representatives.

Negative adjustments on average are smaller than positive increases for the week.

Regal Partners and Codan are the two notable exceptions when it comes to upgrades to earnings forecasts. In particular PLS Group (63%), Greatland Resources (53%) and Regal Partners (49%) enjoyed some eye-catching re-adjustments, followed by Deep Yellow and Liontown on 25% and 24% increases.

On the opposite side, Paladin Energy stands out with its consensus forecast dropping by -20%, followed by TPG Telecom on -15%. Super Retail and Endeavour Group –both having issued disappointing trading updates– follow next.

Gold producer Northern Star, which also started 2026 on a disappointing note, is equally included.

In summary: earnings forecasts are on the rise ahead of the February results season, but it’s predominantly linked to mining companies as analysts are preparing for/adjusting to a better environment ahead.

Total Buy ratings for the eight stockbrokerages daily monitored by FNArena still sit at an historically elevated percentage of 62.89%. With only 7.72% in Sell ratings, this leaves less than 30% for Neutral/Holds.

Morgan Stanley and UBS are the only two where Buy ratings do not represent the largest percentage of total ratings. This is highly unusual with local indices near an all-time record high and most likely linked to the polarised nature of the market and the narrow group of companies that has done most of the lifting post covid.

If, as suggested by many, the global bull market in equities remains poised to broaden out and include many of yesteryear’s laggards, including on the ASX, it’ll be interesting to observe whether this also results in a normalising of broker ratings in line with historically more prevalent trends and percentages.

Upgrade

AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Citi expects further capital return initiatives with AMP’s FY25 result, supported by strong platform flows, cost control, and stabilising bank earnings.

Attractions are seen despite low bank returns, with the broker citing scope for platform multiple expansion as the share price has fallen.

The  broker’s forecast earnings tweaks are modest after mark-to-market and debt repayment adjustments.

Citi keeps its $2.10 target and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((ANZ)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/2/1

Citi believes ASX-listed bank outperformance looks unlikely in 2026 given relatively full valuations, even as the broader macro backdrop remains supportive.

The broker points to forecasts for two rate rises, alongside strong aggregate demand and labour conditions, which are expected to underpin net interest margins (NIMs), credit growth and asset quality.

The analysts note valuation concerns persist, yet argue absolute multiples may be a weak signal into 2026 amid fundamental and relative sector support.

Citi raises its target for ANZ Bank to $40.30 from $37.00 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral citing benefits into 2026 from strong tailwinds, driven by disciplined execution on costs and strategy. The bank’s valuation is also seen as undemanding relative to peer.

Among the majors, the broker’s order of preference is ANZ, Westpac, National Australia Bank and CommBank.

BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED ((BBN)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Following the recent share price pullback, Morgans upgraded Baby Bunting’s rating to Hold from Trim.

The broker notes refurbished stores continue to outperform expectations, with the initial three delivering 30% sales growth, and further performance updates expected at the 1H26 result.

No change to forecasts or valuation, with risk–reward now considered as more balanced at 14x FY27 estimated PE. Target price $2.70.

This report was published Friday.

BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED ((BOQ)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/2/2

Citi believes ASX-listed bank outperformance is unlikely in 2026 given relatively full valuations, even as the broader macro backdrop remains supportive.

The broker points to forecasts for two rate rises, alongside strong aggregate demand and labour conditions, which are expected to underpin net interest margins (NIMs), credit growth and asset quality.

The analysts note valuation concerns persist, yet argue absolute multiples may be a weak signal into 2026 amid fundamental and relative sector support.

Citi raises its target for Bank of Queensland to $7.15 from $7.00 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral citing efficient execution on a targeted strategy to lift medium-term returns.

Capital deployment into business banking is being prioritised, explain the analysts, while enhancing retail banking profitability.

Among challengers and regional banks, the broker prefers Judo Capital and Bank of Queensland, both rated Buy, while Bendigo and Adelaide Bank is rated Sell.

BRAMBLES LIMITED ((BXB)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Citi views Brambles’ recent share price underperformance as an opportunity, despite a muted consumer environment and near-term uncertainty.

Comfort is drawn by the broker from factors which de-risk 2H of FY26, alongside confidence in volumes and margin drivers extending from FY26 into FY27.

Upside to medium-term earnings is identified, with the analyst seeing an attractive 12-month outlook.

Citi upgrades to Buy from Neutral and retains a target of $26.75.

CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT ((CLW)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/1

Post a review of the property sector which factors in possible interest rate rises in 2026, Ord Minnett increases the estimated interest costs for all property stocks, with the risk-free rate forecast rising to 4.5% from 4%.

The broker upgrades Charter Hall Long WALE REIT to Accumulate from Hold with a lowered target price of $4.05 from $4.25. EPS forecasts  are lowered by -0.2% for FY26 and -4.2% for FY27.

COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED ((CPU)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/2/1

Citi lowers its target for Computershare to $39.60 from $40.40 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

Risk is now skewed to the upside, according to the broker, with rising M&A, IPO and debt issuance activity potentially offsetting softer margin income. The company is seen as increasingly leveraged to lower rates, stimulating US capital markets.

The broker trims its medium-term EPS forecasts to reflect further US rate cut prospects, but considers additional downside from margin income increasingly limited.

It’s noted debt issuance trends remain encouraging across multiple asset classes, while corporate action shows early signs of recovery.

ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED ((EDV)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/3/1

After further analysis of yesterday’s trading update, Citi raises its target for Endeavour Group to $4.10 from $3.92 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

The broker believes the promotion-led downgrade was largely anticipated. Absent a further deterioration in trading conditions or the need for additional pricing or investment support, the analyst sees scope for this to be the last downgrade in the near term.

A summary of Citi’s initial thoughts yesterday follows.

Today’s trading update by Endeavour Group showed improving retail sales trends, Citi notes. However, discounting pressured margins, driving a -7.5% miss to the consensus profit (PBT) forecast.

As part of an early assessment, the broker highlights retail gross margins fell sharply year on year, raising questions over sustainable margin levels amid intense competition. Hotels delivered resilient earnings in line with the analyst’s expectations.

Citi sees limited near-term relief, noting retail strategy changes will take time to emerge and significant one-off costs were flagged outside consensus forecasts.

See also EDV downgrade.

INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED ((IAG)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Macquarie notes severe weather exceeded allowances in 1H26 and is likely to pressure Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group’s ordinary dividends in February.

At the 1H26 results, the broker expects the insurer to reaffirm FY26 reported margin guidance of 14-16%, noting its forecast is 14.4%. GWP (gross written premium) growth is forecast at 9.4% vs guidance of 10%.

The broker trimmed FY26 EPS forecast by -6.3% and FY27 by -6.1%. Target cut to $8.90 from $9.10.

Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral on valuation reasons, with 1H26 result eyed as a catalyst.

INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP ((INA)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/1/0

Post a review of the property sector which factors in possible interest rate rises in 2026, Ord Minnett increases the estimated interest costs for all property stocks, with the risk-free rate forecast rising to 4.5% from 4%.

Ingenia Communities is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold with a new target of $5.30. No change to FY26 EPS forecast and FY27 slips by -0.2%.

MIRVAC GROUP ((MGR)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Post a review of the property sector which factors in possible interest rate rises in 2026, Ord Minnett increases the estimated interest costs for all property stocks, with the risk-free rate forecast rising to 4.5% from 4%.

Ord Minnett upgrades Mirvac Group to Buy from Hold, expecting growth to return on the back of higher development revenue and wider margins. The office segment, which represents around 40% of the portfolio, looks to have stabilised and reached the trough of the cycle.

The broker forecasts an EPS CAGR of 9% over three years.

Target price slips to $2.25 from $2.35.

MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED ((MND)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 4/1/0

Monadelphous Group has had strong contract momentum since November, securing $835m of new EC and M&I work, Bell Potter highlights. This has lifted FY26 year-to-date awards to $1.4bn, with major wins from Rio Tinto in the Pilbara.

Given multi-year contract terms, the broker reckons this supports a positive revenue growth outlook through FY26-28. FY26 to-date wins annualise to $2.6bn, likely exceeding FY26 revenue growth guidance, the broker reckons.

FY27 EPS forecast upgraded by 12% and FY28 by 9%, and the broker highlights these are now ahead of consensus. 

Target rises to $33 from $24, driven by lower WACC. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.

PLS GROUP LIMITED ((PLS)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/5/1

Bell Potter notes lithium prices rebounded strongly in the December quarter, with SC6 price up 35% q/q and lithium carbonate up 18%. Spot prices have surged further due to improving demand and normalising inventories.

Pricing strength reflects continued EV growth, rising ESS demand and policy support, particularly in China, with spodumene responding faster than contract lithium chemicals.

The broker upgraded its outlook, estimating SC6 at US$1,750/t in 2026 before stepping down to a long-term US$1,400/t from 2030, a material uplift from prior assumptions.

Sharp lifts to PLS Group’s EPS forecasts for FY26-28. Target rises to $4.55 from $2.65, and it assumes an upside-case long-term SC6 price of US$1,680/t, 20% above the base case.

Rating upgraded to Hold from Sell.

SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED ((SUL)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Super Retail offered 1H26 trading update with sales growth of 4.2%, which met Morgans’ and consensus expectations but weaker margins are weighing on profit before tax which were guided some -7% below the consensus outlook.

The broker downgrades EPS forecasts by -10.8% for FY26 and -9.7% for FY27, with an accompanying lowering of the target price to $17 from $19.35. Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold with the recent decline in the share price viewed as an opportunity.

In the Dec quarter new vehicle deliveries rose 3% y/y with 2H2025 volumes up 2.2% on the prior year but down -1.3% on the previous half.

The analyst views auto sector fundamentals as having stabilised for both volume and margins in 2025 and continues to envisage better conditions in 2026. Preferred exposures are Eagers Automotive ((APE)), ARB Corp ((ARB)) and Motorcycle Holdings ((MTO)).

See also SUL downgrade.

LOTTERY CORPORATION LIMITED ((TLC)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Macquarie keeps its target for Lottery Corp at $5.40 though upgrades to Outperform from Neutral as the recent share price fall provides a buying opportunity, in the analyst’s view.

The company’s valuation now sits at the low end of historical ranges, highlights the broker. It’s felt earnings revisions, rather than bond yields, remain the key driver of share price performance.

The broker trims its lottery volume and EPS forecasts modestly, reflecting softer jackpot activity in FY26 year-to-date, though base games continue to grow. Second-half volume recovery is expected, with management commentary at the upcoming result a key focus.

The analyst expects earnings to smooth over time as jackpot conditions normalise.

Downgrade

BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED ((BEN)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/1/3

Citi believes ASX-listed bank outperformance is unlikely given relatively full valuations, even as the broader macro backdrop remains supportive.

The broker points to forecasts for two rate rises, alongside strong aggregate demand and labour conditions, which are expected to underpin net interest margins (NIMs), credit growth and asset quality.

The analysts note valuation concerns persist, yet argue absolute multiples may be a weak signal into 2026 amid fundamental and relative sector support.

Citi raises its target for Bendigo & Adelaide Bank to $10.25 from $10.10 and downgrades to Sell from Neutral given the recent share price rally.

Among challengers and regional banks, the broker prefers Judo Capital and Bank of Queensland, both rated Buy, while Bendigo and Adelaide Bank is rated Sell.

BOSS ENERGY LIMITED ((BOE)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/3/2

Macquarie downgrades Boss Energy to Underperform from Neutral, citing the re-rating of the stock price as excessive post the unimpressive update on Honeymoon.

The stock has risen 33% since the December update, which implies a U308 price of around US$100/lb, while the Honeymoon update pointed to a more “modest” resource for Honeymoon.

No change to $1.25 target price.

ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED ((EDV)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Ord Minnett lowers its target for Endeavour Group and downgrades to Lighten from Hold after 1H FY26 earnings (EBIT) guidance came in almost -6% below the consensus expectation.

The broker explains price discounting to support sales weighed on retail margins. Liquor earnings were the key drag, with margins contracting sharply despite sales meeting forecasts, highlights the analyst.

Management is prioritising volume growth, with Dan Murphy’s and BWS delivering solid sales momentum, while hotels performance remained robust on gaming and refurbishments, notes Ord Minnett.

The broker highlights the risk is whether competitors follow the pricing lead, extending margin pressure across the sector.

Target price $3.

See also EDV upgrade.

ELEVRA LITHIUM LIMITED ((ELV)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Ahead of December quarter reports for Critical Mineral stocks, Macquarie highlights lithium price gains accelerated in early January, presenting near-term earnings upside. 

The broker lifted the EV/EBITDA valuation multiple to 20.0x from 5.0x for Elevra Lithium, reflecting near-term earnings upside from strong spot spodumene prices, which are 100% and 75% above its 2026 and 2027 forecasts. Target rises to $8.50 from $7.00.

The broker forecasts 2Q26 spodumene production of 48kt, down -8% q/q as plant recoveries normalise, while FY26 output estimate of 203kt remains at the guidance midpoint. Shipments are expected to more than double q/q due to lumpy cargo timing, driving temporarily lower unit costs but expected to normalise over time.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform on recent share price gains.

HIGHCOM LIMITED ((HCL)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Post an updated 1H26 revenue and earnings (EBITDA) loss guidance update from HighCom, Bell Potter downgrades the stock to Hold from Buy and lowers the target to 32c from 40c.

Management has flagged revenue range at $10.5-$11m and an earnings loss of -$5m to -$5.8m versus 1H26 revenue of $26.6m and $1.9m in earnings.

The weak update was attributed to the long US Government shutdown in October and November which delayed contracts and procurements. The outlook for 2H26 remains upbeat, management noted, with both revenue and earnings expected to exceed 1H26 and earnings to become more positive.

The broker accordingly revises EPS estimate to a loss for FY26 and FY27 down by -22%. The company also announced the resignation of CEO Todd Ashurst who was appointed in March and is being replaced immediately by Geoffrey Knox.

HMC CAPITAL LIMITED ((HMC)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Post a review of the property sector which factors in possible interest rate rises in 2026, Ord Minnett increases the estimated interest costs for all property stocks, with the risk-free rate forecast rising to 4.5% from 4%.

The broker downgrades HMC Capital to Hold from Buy with a lower target of $4. No change to FY26 EPS forecast with FY27 forecast down -1.5%.

IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/3/1

Ahead of December quarter reports for Critical Mineral stocks, Macquarie highlights lithium price gains accelerated in early January, presenting near-term earnings upside. 

The broker lifted the EV/EBITDA valuation multiple to 20.0x from 8.0x for IGO Ltd, reflecting near-term earnings upside from strong spot spodumene prices, which are 100% and 75% above its 2026 and 2027 forecasts. Target rises to $9.00 from $7.50.

The broker’s forecast for Greenbushes spodumene output of 359kt is 3% above consensus. with full-year production estimate near the midpoint of 1,500-1,650kt guidance. Nova performance is assumed to be weaker, with nickel and copper volumes -12% and -19% below consensus, respectively.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform on recent share price gains.

NATIONAL STORAGE REIT ((NSR)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Post a review of the property sector which factors in possible interest rate rises in 2026, Ord Minnett increases the estimated interest costs for all property stocks, with the risk-free rate forecast rising to 4.5% from 4%.

National Storage REIT is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate with a new target of $2.75. No change to FY26 EPS forecast with FY27 down -0.4%.

PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED ((PDN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 5/1/1

Macquarie downgrades Paladin Energy to Neutral from Outperform due to the strong re-rating of the stock, rising over 49% over four months since the equity raising. Target sits at $11.10.

The broker anticipates U308 term prices will continue to advance in 2026 as utilities look to incentivise supply, noting the industry consultant TradeTech’s term price stands at US$87/lb now. This should provide a floor to assist greenfield projects to go ahead.

With the restart of Langer Heinrich, the analyst flags production could be in excess of 4-4.4mlb FY26 guidance, forecasting 4.6mlbs.

SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED ((SUL)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Ord Minnett lowers its target for Super Retail to $17 from $19 and downgrades to Hold from Accumulate.

Management has flagged margin pressure in 1H26, with higher marketing spend at Rebel and weaker conditions for BCF offsetting modest same-store sales growth, explains the analyst.

Revenue met the broker’s expectations but profit missed consensus by more than -7%, prompting forecasts for a near -80bp full-year margin contraction.

Intensified competition from global brands and elevated promotional costs led to EPS downgrades by Ord Minnett across FY26-28.

See also SUL upgrade.

TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED ((TWE)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 0/4/1

Citi sees more downside risks for Treasury Wine Estates following reports distributor RNDC may sell operations in seven states. RNDC is a wholesaler for the company’s products in at least five of them, and Citi anticipates an impact as soon as 2H26.

The broker sees no immediate risk to 1H26 guidance issued in December, but cautions upside is limited after the 8% share price rise since mid-December.

Within the F&B sector, the broker’s top pick is a2 Milk Co ((A2M) , followed by Endeavour Group ((EDV)).

Rating downgraded to Sell from Neutral. Target unchanged at $4.80.

VICINITY CENTRES ((VCX)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/3/2

Post a review of the property sector which factors in possible interest rate rises in 2026, Ord Minnett increases the estimated interest costs for all property stocks, with the risk-free rate forecast rising to 4.5% from 4%.

The broker downgrades Vicinity Centres to Hold from Accumulate with the stock up 30% over the last year. Target price slips to $2.40 from $2.55. The EPS forecasts lift by 0.5% for FY26 and fall by -0.5% for FY27.

Vicinity continues to experience good sales momentum, the analyst states, with a 99.95% occupancy rate, although the redevelopment of the Chatswood Galleria project is impacting funds from operations.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup <img alt="3dbar" src="https://www.fnarena.com/charts/fnarena/3dbar.php?mydata=1&mylabels=BellPotter,Citi,Macquarie,MorganStanley,Morgans,OrdMinnett,ShawandPartners,UBS&b0=227,148,181,101,258,254,174,140&h0=132,138,169,111,165,152,26,178&s0=10,26,42,50,32,34,6,31″ style=”border:1px solid #000000″>

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