MESOBLAST LIMITED (MSB)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

02/03/2026

1

Speculative Buy

$4.45

120.30%

Mesoblast had pre-released revenue details for the first half while the loss of the EBITDA level was higher than Bell Potter expected because of an increase in R&D expenses.

Guidance is for FY26 net revenue from Ryoncil sales of $110-120m, and the broker suspects second half EBITDA will be close to break even.

The company expects to achieve 20% market penetration in paediatric SR aGvHD by the fourth quarter of FY26 with a longer term goal of 40% and in the absence of any other effective treatment Bell Potter believes this is a "low bar".

Speculative Buy rating and $4.45 target unchanged.

FORECAST
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -7.77 cents.
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.92 cents.

09/02/2026

1

Buy

$3.32

64.36%

Canaccord Genuity notes the number of bullish announcements from Mesoblast over recent weeks with a trading update reiterating the strength of Ryoncil in the paediatric aGVHD market.

Given patient adherence and strong real-world results the broker assesses an estimate of more than US$200m in peak sales is well supported.

The broker calculates the current core business on a stand-alone basis supports free cash flow of around US$115m, providing internal funding for the growing pipeline. Buy. Target rises to $3.32 from $3.11.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -2.13 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -4.12 cents.