Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 30-01-26

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This story features 29METALS LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 29M
The company is included in ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday January 26 to Friday January 30, 2026
Total Upgrades: 24
Total Downgrades: 26
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 63.23%; Hold 28.72%; Sell 8.05%

For the week ending Friday, January 30, 2026, FNArena tracked twenty-four upgrades and twenty-six downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

All ten of the average target price increases in the table below relate to the Mining sector, yet the sector is also responsible for most falls in average earnings forecasts for the week, with Coronado Global Resources appearing in both tables.

As explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/01/30/coronados-fate-lays-with-coal-prices/, Coronado’s December quarter update revealed ‘misses’ against consensus forecasts of between -6-7% for run-of-mine, production, and sales.

Macquarie raised its target for the coal company to 40c from 25c thanks to a higher valuation multiple, while UBS set a target of 53c, up from 44c, and upgraded to Buy from Neutral given a better risk/reward outlook due to improved operational resilience and more clarity around the outlook.

Average current financial year earnings forecasts for Coronado, Whitehaven Coal and Stanmore Resources fell by -29%, -19%, and -12%, respectively.

Analysts observed a strong December quarter operational performance by Whitehaven and believe FY26 guidance is on track. Three brokers downgraded their ratings as the share price had risen 21% since early December and 34% over the last three months.

Stanmore delivered record December quarter results across run-of-mine, saleable product and product sales while dealing with unseasonally high rainfall. The percentage fall in the company’s average 2025 forecast earnings was exaggerated by the small numbers involved.

Both Ord Minnett and Morgans raised their targets for Stanmore, with Morgans downgrading its rating to Trim from Buy.

Iluka Resources suffered the largest fall in average earnings forecast (-71% for FY25) following a mixed December quarter result as weaker realised prices weighed on revenue and FY26 volume guidance came in less than expected.

Morgan Stanley explained December quarter pricing for zircon and rutile disappointed due to Chinese discounting and product mix, offsetting much of the volume upside.

Ord Minnett suggested management will need to raise equity to deal with the current debt overhang, as there is scant cash flow from the operations at prevailing prices.

Average earnings forecasts for copper producer AIC Mines and fuel and convenience retailer Ampol also fell by -38% and -34%, respectively.

Copper production for AIC was around -13% below Ord Minnett’s expectations due to lower throughput. While leaving its target price unchanged, the broker explained disappointment was more than offset by higher gold output at the Cracow operation in central Queensland, along with improved group costs and capital spending.

While Ampol’s guidance for FY25 earnings matched the consensus estimate, both Ord Minnett and Macquarie are concerned about the outlook for refining margins.

Turning to falls in average target prices, here medical technology company ImpediMed and graphite producer Syrah Resources top the list with falls of -16% and -12%, respectively.

Morgans explained ImpediMed’s December quarter update showed ongoing weakness in US sales due to hospital budget constraints, with Bell Potter noting a slight decline in the installed base and churn rising to 4%.

For Syrah Resources, Macquarie envisages a more subdued near-term earnings outlook post the fourth quarter result. While production rose by 2%, sales were down -3%, with pricing missing consensus forecasts by -26% due to product mix changes, explained the broker.

Given Syrah owns one of the world’s largest natural graphite operations, the analyst retained an Outperform rating.

On the flipside, Greatland Resources received a 25% increase in average target from brokers, with fellow gold miner Bellevue Gold’s target also around 12% higher. The latter was solely due to higher gold price forecasts by Ord Minnett (as part of a general commodity price review) with gold and copper estimates rising by 19% and 14%, respectively.

While Greatland’s earnings forecast also benefited from Ord Minnett’s higher pricing estimates, December quarter production was tracking at the upper end of guidance and at the lower end for costs.

Given such a strong production and cost performance in the financial year-to-date, analyst at Macquarie felt there could be an opportunity for management to increase production guidance, reduce cost guidance, or narrow the guidance range.

Citi could also envisage upside risks from future drilling at the West Dome Underground mining area and the Stage 2 extension at the Telfer operation in Western Australia.

Ord Minnett’s higher commodity pricing forecasts were also behind a rise in target price for Minerals 260 (gold and lithium), 29Metals (copper and zinc), and lithium miner PLS Group of 23%, 12%, and 10%, respectively.

This broker upgraded its rating for PLS Group to Accumulate from Hold. Morgans raised its target to $4.60 from $3.10 and upgraded to Trim from Sell following a spodumene price rally of 90% since mid-December and over 180% in the last six months.

The latter analyst noted batteries and energy systems offer another leg of demand on top of electric vehicles.

Peer Liontown also appears on the lists below for positive change to target price and earnings forecast following its December quarter update. Production, sales, and costs beat Macquarie’s expectations, though lower realised spodumene prices drove an around -8% revenue miss.

Management maintained FY26 guidance, with improving lithium prices expected to lift realised prices and cash flow. Bell Potter highlighted expansion options at Kathleen Valley (up to 4Mtpa) are being re-assessed for potential approval in mid-2026.

Only DigiCo Infrastructure REIT appears above Liontown on the earnings upgrade table after both Bell Potter and Macquarie reviewed their outlooks for the local REIT sector, though it should be noted the percentage increase is exaggerated by the small number involved.

Bell Potter’s sector outlook concludes the outlook for REITs has weakened amid higher inflation expectations, rising bond yields and expectations of RBA rate hike(s).

As a counterbalance, it’s thought strong transaction activity, early cap rate compression, hedged debt costs, healthy balance sheets, and renewed M&A should support earnings resilience.

Macquarie noted higher bond yields with the rising risk the RBA raises rates in the first quarter of 2026, with global rates expected to move up in the second half of 2026.

Mineral Resources appears third on the target price table after its December quarter (2Q26) update beat Morgans’ expectations across Mining Services, lithium and iron ore. Strong execution, improved lithium pricing and lower-than-guided costs were the highlights, suggested the broker.

Woodside Energy is next with a 16% rise in average target price after December quarter sales volumes and revenue came in ahead of market expectations, while 2025 production came in modestly ahead of guidance.

Cost guidance for 2025 suggests upgrades to Ord Minnett’s underlying profit numbers, auguring well for the final dividend, according to the analyst.

Total Buy ratings for the eight stockbrokerages daily monitored by FNArena still sit at an historically elevated percentage of 63.29%.

With only 8.05% in Sell ratings, this leaves 28.72% for Neutral/Holds.

Upgrade

29METALS LIMITED ((29M)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/0/1

Ord Minnett brought forward its commodity price review (last done on December 12) after over 20% spike in key minerals, lifting 2026 forecasts. Silver led the gain, with 90% rise in the forecast to US$105/oz, gold up 19% and copper up 14%.

Lithium spodumene and copper remain the broker’s key pick for 2026, supported by supply tightness and electrification demand, while iron ore and lithium forecasts are unchanged. A modest AUD appreciation only partly offsets the stronger outlook, with forecasts generally above market expectations.

No change to FY25-26 forecasts for 29Metals, while FY27 is lifted by 30.6%. Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.

Target rises to 60c from 45c.

AUSTRALIAN ETHICAL INVESTMENT LIMITED ((AEF)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Ord Minnett notes the -30% decline in Australian Ethical Investment’s share price over the last three months. This followed lower-than-expected fund inflows, APRA directives on its manager selection methods in its superannuation business and further conditions on its licence.

Positively, member growth in the December quarter grew 15%, and the negatives are believed to be discounted in the share price.

Target price $7.50. The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -2.9% for FY26 and -3.3% for FY27.

ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED ((ALK)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Ord Minnett upgrades Alkane Resources to Buy from Accumulate with a higher target price of $2.05 from $1.70. This follows a robust 2Q26 report which was largely pre-released but came in above expectations, with production up 9% and costs down -8%, a beat.

Post a recent site visit to Costerfield, the analyst has a higher degree of confidence around the asset base and upgraded expectations for Tomingley to 85koz-plus by FY28.

The broker anticipates the discount the stock trades on will narrow as more investors outside of a top-100 mandate seek higher-margin spot price exposure and reliable gold production.

ARENA REIT ((ARF)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Macquarie notes higher bond yields with the rising risk the RBA hikes rates in 1Q2026, with global rates expected to move up in 2H2026.

Arena REIT is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral on valuation grounds with the stock price down around -10% over the last three months. Target moved to $4 from $4.01.

The stock remains one of the preferred REITS.

BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED ((BOQ)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Macquarie upgrades its sector view on banks to Neutral, noting favourable macro conditions support earnings upside despite elevated valuations.

Higher RBA interest rate expectations have improved bank funding costs and near-term margin outlook, the broker highlights, creating earnings upside risk for FY26 that is not yet fully reflected in consensus.

The broker lifted Bank of Queensland’s FY26 EPS forecast by 4.4% and FY27 by 6.0%.

Target rises to $6.50 from $5.90. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underperform.

This report was published January 22.

CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT ((CLW)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/4/0

Macquarie notes higher bond yields with the rising risk the RBA hikes rates in 1Q2026, with global rates expected to move up in 2H2026.

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform based on valuation with a lower target of $3.96 from $4.20.

The analyst forecasts a further circa 17bps of cap rate expansion versus prior forecast.

CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP ((CNI)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/3/1

Macquarie notes higher bond yields with the rising risk the RBA hikes rates in 1Q2026, with global rates expected to move up in 2H2026.

Centuria Capital is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform due to around a -13% decline in the share price over the last three months with an unchanged target price of $2.10.

See also CNI downgrade.

CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC ((CRN)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 1/2/1

UBS upgrades Coronado Global Resources to Buy from Neutral with a higher target of 53c from 44c, with the analyst seeing a better risk/reward outlook due to improved operational resilience and more clarity around the outlook.

The miner is positioned to be more leveraged to met coal markets, boosted by a better balance sheet. Specifically, mine performance at Curragh and Buchanan continue to improve.

A Mammoth review is still forthcoming, with a final report over the next few weeks. The analyst views the market as over-emphasising the risk, and assuming a six-week disruption.

UBS is looking for met coal prices to average around US$235 through 2026, supported by weather issues in Australia.

DIGICO INFRASTRUCTURE REIT ((DGT)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 5/0/0

Bell Potter notes FY26 outlook for REITs has weakened amid higher inflation expectations, rising bond yields and expectations of RBA rate hike(s).

However, strong transaction activity, early cap rate compression, hedged debt costs, healthy balance sheets and renewed M&A support earnings resilience. The broker expects REITs to still deliver 7-8% compounded 3yr EPS growth after mark-to-market.

Target for DigiCo Infrastructure REIT rises to $3.25 from $3.20. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.

GLOBAL LITHIUM RESOURCES LIMITED ((GL1)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Ord Minnett brought forward its commodity price review (last done on December 12) after over 20% spike in key minerals, lifting 2026 forecasts. Silver led the gain, with 90% rise in the forecast to US$105/oz, gold up 19% and copper up 14%.

Lithium spodumene and copper remain the broker’s key pick for 2026, supported by supply tightness and electrification demand, while iron ore and lithium forecasts are unchanged. A modest AUD appreciation only partly offsets the stronger outlook, with forecasts generally above market expectations.

In lithium, the broker’s top picks are IGO Ltd and PLS Group. In the case of Global Lithium Resources, the broker lifted FY27 EPS forecast by 12.5%.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target price lifted to 65c from 60c.

ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED ((ILU)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/1

Macquarie sees value emerging at Iluka Resources following a mixed 4Q2025 result, where a 54% production beat and solid sales offset weaker ilmenite output and a heavy exceptional charge.

The broker notes net debt of $1.06bn was in line, while revenue beat expectations by 18%, despite a -$0.6bn impairment and inventory write-down reflecting ongoing market weakness.

Guidance for 2026 disappointed on volumes, with synthetic rutile production guided to zero and zircon output tracking below consensus, although management flagged meaningful working capital release from inventory sales.

The analyst tweaks EPS forecasts for 2025 while 2026 is cut by -15%, and outer-year forecasts largely unchanged.

Macquarie upgrades the stock to Outperform to from Neutral and target cut to $6.50 from $7.10.

LIONTOWN LIMITED ((LTR)) Upgrade to Trim from Sell by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/1/2

Morgans emphasises the spodumene price rally, up 90% since mid December and over 180% in the last six months, with batteries and energy systems another leg of the demand driver on top of EVs.

The analyst upgrades Liontown to Trim from Sell with a higher target of $2 from 89c. The rally in the share price is viewed as limiting the upside support unless lithium prices rise further.

NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED ((NAB)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/1/3

Macquarie upgrades its sector view on banks to Neutral, noting favourable macro conditions support earnings upside despite elevated valuations.

Higher RBA interest rate expectations have improved bank funding costs and near-term margin outlook, the broker highlights, creating earnings upside risk for FY26 that is not yet fully reflected in consensus.

The broker lifted National Australia Bank’s FY26 EPS forecast by 2.4% and FY27 by 4.4%.

Target rises to $45 from $39. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

This report was published January 22.

NEWMONT CORPORATION REGISTERED ((NEM)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/0/0

Ord Minnett brought forward its commodity price review (last done on December 12) after over 20% spike in key minerals, lifting 2026 forecasts. Silver led the gain, with 90% rise in the forecast to US$105/oz, gold up 19% and copper up 14%.

Lithium spodumene and copper remain the broker’s key pick for 2026, supported by supply tightness and electrification demand, while iron ore and lithium forecasts are unchanged. A modest AUD appreciation only partly offsets the stronger outlook, with forecasts generally above market expectations.

Newmont Corp is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate and remains one of the preferred gold stocks. The broker remains upbeat on gold.

Target price is raised to $215 from $160 and an upgrade in 2026 EPS forecast of 40.7% with 2025 left unchanged.

NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED ((NWL)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/2/0

Morgans upgrades Netwealth Group to Accumulate from Hold with a lower target price of $28.90 from $35.48.

The group reported 2Q26 net flows of $4.16bn and total FUA of $125.6bn, which met consensus and should allow FY26 net flow targets to be achieved.

The analyst lowers underlying earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -2% for FY26 and -8% for FY27 due to management’s margin guidance and the inclusion of debt to finance First Guardian client remediation costs.

ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED ((OBM)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Ord Minnett brought forward its commodity price review (last done on December 12) after over 20% spike in key minerals, lifting 2026 forecasts. Silver led the gain, with 90% rise in the forecast to US$105/oz, gold up 19% and copper up 14%.

Lithium spodumene and copper remain the broker’s key pick for 2026, supported by supply tightness and electrification demand, while iron ore and lithium forecasts are unchanged. A modest AUD appreciation only partly offsets the stronger outlook, with forecasts generally above market expectations.

Ora Banda Mining is upgraded to Buy from Hold with a new target of $2.25 from $1.50. The broker raises EPS estimates by 16.1% for FY26 and 29.4% for FY27.

PREDICTIVE DISCOVERY LIMITED ((PDI)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Ord Minnett brought forward its commodity price review (last done on December 12) after over 20% spike in key minerals, lifting 2026 forecasts. Silver led the gain, with 90% rise in the forecast to US$105/oz, gold up 19% and copper up 14%.

Lithium spodumene and copper remain the broker’s key pick for 2026, supported by supply tightness and electrification demand, while iron ore and lithium forecasts are unchanged. A modest AUD appreciation only partly offsets the stronger outlook, with forecasts generally above market expectations.

Predictive Discovery is upgraded to Buy from Hold, with the broker raising EPS estimate by 28.1% for FY27, with FY26 unchanged.

Target price $1.15.

PLS GROUP LIMITED ((PLS)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett and Upgrade to Trim from Sell by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Ord Minnett brought forward its commodity price review (last done on December 12) after over 20% spike in key minerals, lifting 2026 forecasts. Silver led the gain, with 90% rise in the forecast to US$105/oz, gold up 19% and copper up 14%.

Lithium spodumene and copper remain the broker’s key pick for 2026, supported by supply tightness and electrification demand, while iron ore and lithium forecasts are unchanged. A modest AUD appreciation only partly offsets the stronger outlook, with forecasts generally above market expectations.

The broker upgrades PLS Group to Accumulate from Hold. Target lifts to $5.50 from $4.05 and the EPS estimates are raised by 41% for FY26 and down -15% for FY27.

Morgans emphasises the spodumene price rally, up 90% since mid December and over 180% in the last six months, with batteries and energy systems another leg of the demand driver on top of EVs.

The analyst upgrades PLS Group to Trim from Sell with a higher target price of $4.60 from $3.10, due to the view that sector valuations are largely fully priced on fundamentals.

PRO MEDICUS LIMITED ((PME)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Macquarie upgrades Pro Medicus to Outperform from Neutral and views the share price weakness as temporary as US feedback reinforces the analyst’s confidence of market share gains over the near term.

The feedback also supported AI developments in the Visage platform which are expected to “strengthen” the Visage offering and enhance market share improvements.

FY26 to date, seven contracts have been announced with total value of around $280m. The broker moderates its longer-term assumptions pending further details on cardiology and digital pathology and now assumes 30% market share by FY40.

Macquarie tweaks EPS estimates up 1% for FY26 and 3% for FY27 with a downgrade in target price of -9% to $291.30 from $321.60 on changes to EPS forecasts in outer years for the discounted cash flow model.

PERSEUS MINING LIMITED ((PRU)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/0

Ord Minnett brought forward its commodity price review (last done on December 12) after over 20% spike in key minerals, lifting 2026 forecasts. Silver led the gain, with 90% rise in the forecast to US$105/oz, gold up 19% and copper up 14%.

Lithium spodumene and copper remain the broker’s key pick for 2026, supported by supply tightness and electrification demand, while iron ore and lithium forecasts are unchanged. A modest AUD appreciation only partly offsets the stronger outlook, with forecasts generally above market expectations.

The broker upgrades Perseus Mining to Hold from Lighten with a higher target of $6.40 from $5 and raises FY27 EPS estimate by 9% with FY26 unchanged.

REECE LIMITED ((REH)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Citing US branch roll-out opportunity, US housing cycle tailwinds and capital management optionality, Morgan Stanley upgrades Reece to Overweight from Equal-weight. Target rises to $16 from $12.

RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED ((RSG)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Ord Minnett brought forward its commodity price review (last done on December 12) after over 20% spike in key minerals, lifting 2026 forecasts. Silver led the gain, with 90% rise in the forecast to US$105/oz, gold up 19% and copper up 14%.

Lithium spodumene and copper remain the broker’s key pick for 2026, supported by supply tightness and electrification demand, while iron ore and lithium forecasts are unchanged. A modest AUD appreciation only partly offsets the stronger outlook, with forecasts generally above market expectations.

The broker upgrades Resolute Mining to Buy from Hold with a new target price of $1.90 from $1.25. The 2026 EPS forecast is raised by 36.5% and 2025 is unchanged.

ST. BARBARA LIMITED ((SBM)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Ord Minnett upgrades St. Barbara to Speculative Buy from Hold with a higher target of $1.00 from 65c following PNG government approval of the mining lease extension for the new Simberi gold project to 2038.

The analyst views this as a major de-risking event ahead of the final investment decision expected in the current quarter, with deal finalisation to follow with Lingbao and Kumul.

Following the 2Q26 trading update, the broker lowers EPS forecasts for FY26 by around -30%.

Downgrade

AMCOR PLC ((AMC)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 5/1/0

On negative organic volume momentum, despite Berry acquisition integration/synergies being on track and an attractive valuation, Morgan Stanley downgrades Amcor to Equal-weight from Overweight.

Negative organic volume momentum is Morgan Stanley’s key concern.Target falls to $68.66 from $88.45.

BOSS ENERGY LIMITED ((BOE)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Ord Minnett and Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/3/2

Ord Minnett downgrades Boss Energy to Sell from Hold while raising the target to $1.50 from $1.15, noting the circa 10% share price rally on the December quarter result. The broker suggests this should be used to divest stock with no earnings transparency post guidance for 2H26.

The miner has continued to produce from central well-fields at Honeymoon and lowered costs by maximising reagent use and adjusting FY26 guidance.

The broker stresses there is no guidance for FY27 onwards, which is a potential issue as it will depend on the results from testing management’s new production plan at Honeymoon, which remain unknown.

Boss retains a robust balance sheet with $53m in cash and $110m of U3O8 inventory, offset by a negative legacy contract with realised prices at just 65-70% of spot U3O8 prices.

Boss Energy’s Honeymoon mine produced 456klbs in the December quarter (2Q26), beating expectations due to the benefit from higher lixiviant tenors and processing throughput, Bell Potter highlights.

FY26 production guidance was maintained at 1.6Mlb.The broker notes costs improved materially, with AISC guidance cut to $60-64/lb from $64-60/lb, supporting stronger cash flow.

Key downside remains a legacy contract covering 15% of output at 65-70% of spot, alongside softer 3Q26 production due to declining tenors, maintenance, and commissioning delays. FY26 net profit forecast lifted by 5% but FY27 trimmed by -2%.

Target $1.95. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy.

CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP ((CNI)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/3/1

Bell Potter notes FY26 outlook for REITs has weakened amid higher inflation expectations, rising bond yields and expectations of RBA rate hike(s).

However, strong transaction activity, early cap rate compression, hedged debt costs, healthy balance sheets and renewed M&A support earnings resilience. The broker expects REITs to still deliver 7-8% compounded 3yr EPS growth after mark-to-market.

Target for Centuria Capital cut to to $2.25 from $2.40. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy.

See also CNI upgrade.

CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT ((CQR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/3/0

Macquarie notes higher bond yields with the rising risk the RBA hikes rates in 1Q2026, with global rates expected to move up in 2H2026.

Charter Hall Retail REIT is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform based on valuation with a lower target price of $4.01 from $4.41.

DELTA LITHIUM LIMITED ((DLI)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/1

Ord Minnett brought forward its commodity price review (last done on December 12) after over 20% spike in key minerals, lifting 2026 forecasts. Silver led the gain, with 90% rise in the forecast to US$105/oz, gold up 19% and copper up 14%.

Lithium spodumene and copper remain the broker’s key pick for 2026, supported by supply tightness and electrification demand, while iron ore and lithium forecasts are unchanged. A modest AUD appreciation only partly offsets the stronger outlook, with forecasts generally above market expectations.

In lithium, the broker’s top picks are IGO Ltd and PLS Group. No change to forecasts for Core Lithium.

Rating downgrade to Sell from Hold. Target price lifted to 21c from 17c.

DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED ((DRR)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/1

Ord Minnett brought forward its commodity price review (last done on December 12) after over 20% spike in key minerals, lifting 2026 forecasts. Silver led the gain, with 90% rise in the forecast to US$105/oz, gold up 19% and copper up 14%.

Lithium spodumene and copper remain the broker’s key pick for 2026, supported by supply tightness and electrification demand, while iron ore and lithium forecasts are unchanged. A modest AUD appreciation only partly offsets the stronger outlook, with forecasts generally above market expectations.

The broker trimmed Deterra Royalties’ FY26 EPS forecast by -1.5% and FY27 by -5.4%.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target unchanged at $4.60.

DEEP YELLOW LIMITED ((DYL)) Downgrade to Lighten from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Ord Minnett brought forward its commodity price review (last done on December 12) after over 20% spike in key minerals, lifting 2026 forecasts. Silver led the gain, with 90% rise in the forecast to US$105/oz, gold up 19% and copper up 14%.

Lithium spodumene and copper remain the broker’s key pick for 2026, supported by supply tightness and electrification demand, while iron ore and lithium forecasts are unchanged. A modest AUD appreciation only partly offsets the stronger outlook, with forecasts generally above market expectations.

The broker lifted Deep Yellow’s FY27 EPS forecast by 2.5% and FY28 by 26%. Rating downgraded to Lighten from Accumulate.

Target rises to $2.35 from $2.00.

FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED ((FBU)) Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 0/2/2

Given ongoing cyclical pressures, structural and legacy risks and unattractive valuation, Morgan Stanley downgrades Fletcher Building to Underweight from Equal-weight.

Target falls to $2.89 from $3.13.

GREATLAND RESOURCES LIMITED ((GGP)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/1/0

Greatland Resources’ second quarter gold and copper production were pre-reported, while costs were in line with consensus. Greatland indicated production is tracking at the upper end of production of guidance and the lower end of costs.

In Macquarie’s view, given the strong production and cost performance in the financial year-to-date there could have been an opportunity to increase production guidance, reduce cost guidance, or narrow the guidance range.

The stock has had a strong run and is up 77% over three months (versus peers up 37%). Following its strong run, in Macquarie’s view it is now fairly valued.

Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform. Target rises to $13.00 from $11.40.

GPT GROUP ((GPT)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Macquarie notes higher bond yields with the rising risk the RBA hikes rates in 1Q2026, with global rates expected to move up in 2H2026.

The analyst downgrades GPT Group to Neutral from Outperform with a fall in target price of -11% to $5.55 from $6.23 due to around a 30bps expansion in cap rate.

HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT ((HDN)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Bell Potter notes FY26 outlook for REITs has weakened amid higher inflation expectations, rising bond yields and expectations of RBA rate hike(s).

However, strong transaction activity, early cap rate compression, hedged debt costs, healthy balance sheets and renewed M&A support earnings resilience. The broker expects REITs to still deliver 7-8% compounded 3yr EPS growth after mark-to-market.

The broker notes HomeCo Daily Needs REIT has a high debt load, with a focus on refinancing margin benefits to help offset higher floating-rate costs.

Target for HomeCo Daily Needs REIT trimmed to $1.35 from $1.40. Rating downgraded to Sell from Hold.

HMC CAPITAL LIMITED ((HMC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Macquarie notes higher bond yields with the rising risk the RBA hikes rates in 1Q2026, with global rates expected to move up in 2H2026.

The analyst downgrades HMC Capital to Neutral from Outperform with a lower target of $4.63 from $4.90 due to slight changes in earnings forecasts.

KAROON ENERGY LIMITED ((KAR)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/1

Karoon Energy saw a solid fourth quarter thanks to Who Dat, while 2026 guidance is slightly better than Macquarie had forecast. However it will be a heavy investment year, resulting in negative free cash flow.

The Neon oil project appears to the broker to be slowing, likely on the lower oil price outlook, hence Macquarie reduces its value inclusion for Neon. The broker believes it will be difficult for the stock to perform given oil headwinds and the transition to new management.

Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral. Target falls to $1.50 from $1.65.

MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Ord Minnett brought forward its commodity price review (last done on December 12) after over 20% spike in key minerals, lifting 2026 forecasts. Silver led the gain, with 90% rise in the forecast to US$105/oz, gold up 19% and copper up 14%.

Lithium spodumene and copper remain the broker’s key pick for 2026, supported by supply tightness and electrification demand, while iron ore and lithium forecasts are unchanged. A modest AUD appreciation only partly offsets the stronger outlook, with forecasts generally above market expectations.

The broker downgrades Mineral Resources to Hold from Accumulate with a higher target of $64 from $57, while lifting EPS forecasts by 14.7% for FY26 and lowering FY27 by -13.1%.

NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED ((NHC)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/1

Ord Minnett brought forward its commodity price review (last done on December 12) after over 20% spike in key minerals, lifting 2026 forecasts. Silver led the gain, with 90% rise in the forecast to US$105/oz, gold up 19% and copper up 14%.

Lithium spodumene and copper remain the broker’s key pick for 2026, supported by supply tightness and electrification demand, while iron ore and lithium forecasts are unchanged. A modest AUD appreciation only partly offsets the stronger outlook, with forecasts generally above market expectations.

New Hope is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate with a slightly higher target price of $4.35 from $4.30 with no change to FY26 EPS forecast and FY27 is raised by 13.1%.

NATIONAL STORAGE REIT ((NSR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/4/0

Macquarie notes higher bond yields with the rising risk the RBA hikes rates in 1Q2026, with global rates expected to move up in 2H2026.

The analyst downgrades National Storage REIT to Neutral from Outerperform with no change in target at $2.63. The scheme of implementation with the Brookfield & GIC consortium is expected in 2Q26.

RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED ((RHC)) Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 1/4/1

Ahead of reporting season, Morgan Stanley downgrades Ramsay Health Care to Underweight from Equal-weight and lowers the target price of $34.20 from $34.80.

The analyst lowers earnings forecasts due to a forecast -10bps y/y decline in earnings (EBIT) margin.

Industry View: In-Line.

RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RMS)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/1/0

Ramelius Resources’ Dec Q production of 45.6koz was pre-released, while costs of $1,977/oz were 7% higher than consensus forecasts. Exploration at Galaxy could displace lower-grade tonnes, Macquarie suggests, providing upside to the five-year plan.

Following a strong share price performance, Macquarie views valuation as fair on an FY27 enterprise value to earnings multiple of 10.3x (improving to 6.8x at spot gold of US$5,400/oz).

Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform. Target rises to $4.80 from $4.60.

SOUTH32 LIMITED ((S32)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Ord Minnett downgrades the stock to Accumulate from Buy while lifting the target price to $4.60 from $4.25.

The broker lifts EPS forecasts by 5.2% in FY26 and 5% in FY27, incorporating updated cost assumptions and revised commodity price forecasts.

December quarter production exceeded consensus expectations across most commodities, although aluminium disappointed as the Brazilian JV operated by Alcoa ((AAI)) was impacted by processing issues.

Unit costs were broadly in line with guidance, with aluminium again the outlier due to cost pressure at the Worsley bauxite and alumina operations in WA.

SCENTRE GROUP ((SCG)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/1

Macquarie notes higher bond yields with the rising risk the RBA hikes rates in 1Q2026, with global rates expected to move up in 2H2026.

The analyst downgrades Scentre Group to Underperform from Neutral with a decline in target by -12% to $3.64 from $4.15 due to higher real bond yields and expected impact on cap rates and asset values.

SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((SHL)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Citi notes A&NZ healthcare stocks delivered negative returns in 2025 due to stock-specific issues rather than sector-wide weakness, and sees 2026 again driven by individual company narratives.

The broker sees recovery potential in top picks Telix Pharmaceuticals and ResMed, remains Neutral on most services names, and downgrades Sonic Healthcare on risk of 1H26 underperformance.

Worsening Medicare pathology data prompts the broker to halve its near-term Australian pathology growth assumptions for Sonic Healthcare. This pushed estimates below consensus, leading to a cut in target price and rating downgrade.

The broker sees downside risk to FY26 estimates if 1H underwhelms, despite radiology holding up better. Target lowered to $21.00 from $23.50, and target cut to Sell from Neutral.

A 30-day negative catalyst watch is initiated..

STANMORE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SMR)) Downgrade to Trim from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Stanmore Resources delivered record quarterly results in December across run-of-mine, saleable product and product sales while dealing with unseasonally high rainfall, Morgans notes.

However Isaac Downs is expected to deliver materially lower output in 2026 as mining progresses deeper into the pit and approaches less economic zones. Poitrel’s production is also forecast to ease after a standout 2025 performance.

Morgans downgrades Stanmore to Trim from Buy while raising its target to $2.95 from $2.70. The broker’s target is set at a discount to net present value to reflect opacity in the short-term coal price outlook.

WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED ((WHC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie and Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Bell Potter and Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/4/2

Whitehaven Coal’s Dec Q saw beats across run-of-mine (12%), coal production (9%), and sales (10%), while realised pricing was slightly weaker (-5%) versus consensus. 

FY26 guidance is on track, Macquarie notes, with Whitehaven guiding run-of-mine, production and sales towards the upper end of the guidance range.

As the share prices has risen 21% since early December and 34% over three months, Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target rises to $10.00 from $8.75.

Whitehaven Coal’s December quarter (2Q26) production and sales beat Bell Potter’s expectations, with strong Narrabri performance driving higher realised prices. The company maintained FY26 guidance, and the broker notes metrics are tracking in the upper half of ranges.

Queensland met coal and NSW thermal coal pricing remained solid in the quarter, though near-term production will be disrupted by heavy rainfall and Cyclone Koji, the broker explains.

The broker expects met coal prices to ease as weather impacts subside and supply normalises, with a softer 2H outlook implied by guidance midpoints. Modest EPS downgrades across FY26-27.

Rating downgraded to Sell from Hold following share price moves. Target unchanged at $8.40.

Whitehaven Coal delivered a strong December quarter (2Q26) beat on production, materially reducing 2H execution risk and positioning the company to benefit from higher hard-coking coal prices, Morgans highlights.

The broker lifted FY26 ROM production and coal sales forecasts to the upper half of guidance. This drove material upgrades to revenue, EBITDA and net profit forecasts.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Accumulate. Target rises to $9.75 from $7.95.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup <img alt="3dbar" src="https://www.fnarena.com/charts/fnarena/3dbar.php?mydata=1&mylabels=BellPotter,Citi,Macquarie,MorganStanley,Morgans,OrdMinnett,ShawandPartners,UBS&b0=230,148,181,102,258,254,174,145&h0=130,138,171,108,165,151,26,174&s0=12,27,42,52,33,37,6,29″ style=”border:1px solid #000000″>

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