OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Citi rates FBU as Neutral

Citi assesses potential risks from rising resin costs on A&NZ Building Products exposures, noting force majeure events and widening crack spreads are creating early signs of supply pressure.

The broker identifies Reece and Fletcher Building as more exposed to potential disruption linked to the Middle East conflict.

It's felt Reliance Worldwide and James Hardie Industries face more moderate and limited impacts, respectively, due to differences in sourcing and regional exposure.

For Fletcher Building, Neutral rating and target of NZ$3.70.

Citi rates NEM as Buy

Citi expects Newmont Corp's 1Q26 results on April 23 to show operations tracking broadly in line with guidance, with EPS forecast at US$2.32 per share and EBITDA at US$4.5bn.

Production is modelled at 1.2Moz, consistent with guidance, including the previously disclosed impact from Boddington, the broker explains.

While fuel arrangements are considered manageable, higher energy costs are expected to flow into 2Q, with sensitivity indicating a rise to US$110/bbl could add around US$50/oz to AISC.

Citi trims its FY26 EBITDA forecast slightly. Target $215. Buy.

Macquarie rates WAF as Outperform

West African Resources’ 2026 production guidance was broadly in line with Macquarie's expectations, but higher AISC and growth capex offset the benefit of a stronger long-term mine plan.

Kiaka is expected to contribute 57% of 2026 group production at the midpoint, and is the main driver of the upgraded 10-year outlook, with forecast production of 2.7Moz over 2026-35, 17% above prior consensus estimates.

Sanbrado’s 10-year outlook was also lifted modestly, taking group forecast production over 2026-35 to 5.3Moz, 12% above previous expectations.

The higher cost profile and increased 2026 capex has led to EPS downgrades of -15% for 2026 and -2% for 2027. The analyst now assumes a 2026 dividend of 10cps ahead of a potential 2H2026 payout, as indicated by management.

Target price is cut -10% to $4.50, as higher AISC assumptions and capex more than offset the improved long-term production profile. No change to Outperform rating.