OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Overweight

Morgan Stanley expects a near-term lift in refining crack spreads and fuel margins following the recent jump in commodity prices, although the duration of stronger margins remains uncertain.

Regional crack spreads have averaged about US$13/bbl so far this year, while Australian petrol margins average around 19.4c/L and diesel margins about 22.2c/L, indicating improving downstream profitability.

Ampol is the preferred exposure over Viva Energy ((VEA)) on risk-reward basis, due to the stronger balance sheet, favourable margin outlook. Overweight rated with a $31.00 price target.

Viva is rated Equal-weight with a $2.18 price target as the broker remains cautious about execution risks tied to retail acquisitions and integration.

Industry View: In-Line.

Citi rates ARB as Neutral

February 2026 new car sales data highlight to Citi increasingly challenging industry conditions for ARB Corp.

Hilux Pick-up/cab Chassis 4×4 volumes fell -1.7% on the prior year, while Ranger rose 9% and Triton increased 41%, which the broker attributes to OEM-driven promotions.

Citi notes Shark (-48%) and Great Wall Motors Cannon, (up 225%) collectively accounted for 13% market share versus 14% in the prior year.

Increasing competition is noted from new lower-priced models where ARB typically under-indexes due to limited engineering resources.

The broker also highlights new Chinese entrants, including MG MGU9, LDV Terron 9 and Foton Tunland, collectively represented around 3% of February category volumes. Further launches are expected during 2026.

Target $22.05. Neutral.

UBS rates REP as Buy

First half results from RAM Essential Services Property Fund missed UBS' estimates while the REIT has retained guidance for FY26 distributions of five cents.

Management is confident lost rent from unanticipated vacancies will be recovered to bring the FY26 payout ratio to 100%.

The broker awaits execution of the planned divestment and redeployment strategy which could mean portfolio quality, gearing and growth could all improve.

Buy rating. Target dips to $0.70 from $0.71.