OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Bell Potter rates CSL as Hold

CSL's FY26 guidance downgrade was worse than expected by Bell Potter, with revenue reduced by around -US$750m (-4.7%) and profit (NPATA) by -US$300m (-8.7%), implying declines of -2% and -4%, respectively, versus FY25.

The broker attributes current weakness to softer market conditions across Seqirus and albumin, alongside rising competition in immunoglobulin and iron.

Further pressure on Behring margins and ongoing oversupply in US immunoglobulin plasma markets are key concerns for the analysts, with additional global supply expected.

The broker's forecasts are materially downgraded, with profit cut by -16% and -18% for FY27 and FY28, respectively, and no return to revenue growth expected in FY27.

Bell Potter retains a Hold rating and lowers its target to $100 from $155.

Bell Potter rates EMV as Speculative Buy

Bell Potter notes strong progress in EMVision Medical Devices' Continuous Innovation Study, which runs alongside the Pivotal Trial.

Management plans to add acute ischaemia detection to the existing haemorrhage endpoint, targeting FDA approval across both stroke types.

This move would materially enhance clinical utility and commercial value, according to the analysts, given ischaemic strokes account for around 87% of cases.

Commentary points out leveraging existing trial infrastructure may save up to two years and significant costs versus a standalone study, with enrolment now expected by late 2026 or early 2027.

Improved diagnostic accuracy is seen as supporting better treatment pathways and workflow efficiency.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and $3.15 target for EMVision Medical Devices.

Macquarie rates MTS as Neutral

Metcash's FY26 trading update was generally in line with consensus expectations but some -1% to -2% below Macquarie's forecasts.

The inline update was a positive for the company where the share price has been under pressure, particularly with rising costs thus far not impacting the outlook for the current fiscal year, albeit only 1.5 months at April end.

Management noted ongoing difficult conditions going into FY27 notably for Food and Hardware.

In the former sales thus far have been "resilient" but the analyst cautions on volume growth against a backdrop of price rises. For hardware earnings forecasts are trimmed with the recovery pushed out. Metcash liquor group is trading well.

EPS estimates are lowered by -2% for FY26 and -7% for FY27. Target price declines by -14% to $3.00. FY26 result is due on June 22. Neutral rated.