OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Citi rates GMG as Buy

Australian real estate fundamentals remain strong following the February reporting season, Citi suggests, with retail, residential, self-storage, data centres and industrial assets showing solid operating momentum.

The broker highlights cap rates continue to compress, supporting higher asset valuations and stronger balance sheets across the sector.

Leasing spreads are considered favourable reflecting strong landlord negotiating power and resilient tenant demand.

Citi sees improving capital flows and potential asset value gains over the next 12-18 months, though higher bond yields and domestic inflation remain key near-term risks.

The $40 target and Buy rating for Goodman Group are unchanged.

Morgans rates PNR as Buy

Pantoro Gold delivered a first half result where revenue was up 56% and broadly in line with Morgans, yet production was downgraded. Updated production forecast of 86-92,000 ounces is considerably lower than expected (previously 100-110,000).

The downgrade reflects rainfall disruptions from ex Tropical Cyclone Mitchell and labour availability constraints. The broker is disappointed with the guidance downgrade while the continued sporadic production at Norseman is becoming a concern.

Recent share price weakness has reset the valuation entry point, and with gold prices elevated, the broker still assesses the leverage to spot prices is significant for an unhedged and debt-free producer.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $6.53 from $6.83.

Macquarie rates VGL as Neutral

Vista International's direct sites fell -2.9% for the year to December 2025, and management places global market share (ex RIC), Macquarie explains, at 46% over that period.

The analyst estimates North American box office attendance declined by -3% y/y and drops its 100% platform site assumption by -7% to 4,614, a 3% rise on 2025 for some market share gain but below Vista's target of 6,000 sites.

Maintenance output is now assumed at 2.4x, real from FY29, against 3.0x previously.

Neutral rating unchanged. Target downgraded to NZ$1.82 from NZ$3.20, with EPS forecasts cut by -19% and -39% for FY26/FY27, respectively, on lower platform site and maintenance outputs.