OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Macquarie rates AEL as Outperform

Amplitude Energy has confirmed circa 80% of its legacy gas production is contracted in 2026.

Recent contracts with AGL Energy ((AGL)) and Energy Australia have been well timed, Macquarie suggests, and reflect the prudent approach of steadily engaging high-quality, well-capitalised customers over time and de-risking the project.

The latest gas market interventions drive a structural oversupply in domestic gas markets, but Macquarie believes incentives may ultimately be required to encourage investment in backfill supply projects (e.g. carve-outs, subsidies, creation of domestic trading credit market).

Outperform retained, target rises to $2.45 from $2.15.

Citi rates EBO as Buy

First Take: EBOS Group's FY26 result was in line with Citi's expectations across the P&L, with revenue of $13.5bn and core EBITDA of $614m, up 10% and 5%, respectively.

Healthcare revenue rose 9% to $12.6bn, while Animal Care revenue increased 35% to $907m, with operational execution tracking plans outlined at the recent strategy day.

FY27 core EBITDA guidance of $635m-$655m brackets consensus, with the midpoint implying around 5% growth, while Citi sits at the top end of the range.

The broker believes guidance could prove conservative as the completed distribution centre network drives benefits over the next 2-3 years.

Buy. Target $24.50.

Citi rates LLC as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy

In the wake of FY26 results for Lendlease Group, Citi lowers its target by -$1.40 to $3.10 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy following disappointing FY27 earnings guidance and continued elevated gearing.

FY27 EPS guidance of 37c–41c is around -30% below the broker's prior forecast, reflecting higher debt costs and weaker investment income.

The analysts see further downside risk from Melbourne residential conditions, project delays and potential fund redemptions.

First take: On first glance, Citi notes Lendlease Group's FY26 results present a mixed picture, with core IDC earnings landing near the top of guidance, while the total earnings loss of -82.1c was wider than expected, dragged down by capital recycling losses.

While the construction backlog remains robust and FY27 development earnings are supported by pre-sales, funds under management fell -10% on redemptions lowering investment earnings into FY27.

Gearing has escalated to 37.7% (excluding hybrid benefits), up significantly from 26.6% last year. Citi expects a weak response to the result.