OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Morgans rates FLT as Add

Flight Centre Travel has downgraded FY25 underlying profit (NPBT) guidance to $300-335m from $365-405m, reflecting political and macroeconomic pressures impacting business and consumer confidence, observes Morgans.

The broker also highlights added investment costs and underperformance in some business units.

Despite near-term uncertainty, the analysts view the up to $200m share buyback as a good use of excess capital, with management expecting stronger results in FY26 as business improvement strategies gain momentum.

Morgans retains an Add rating and lowers the target to $16.70 from $19.80, noting the group's balance sheet remains strong and a future travel rebound could significantly boost earnings.

Macquarie rates GOR as No Rating

Gold Road Resources' 1Q25 cost of $2,658/oz was -2% below Macquarie's forecast, though it was 47% higher than the preceding quarter.

Production was pre-reported, and the FY25 guidance of 325-355koz was retained, but the broker is forecasting at the lower end at 327koz. Cost guidance was $2,400-2,600/oz, and Macquarie is forecasting at the upper end at $2,581/oz.

After factoring in the result, the broker lifted FY25-27 EPS forecast by 3%/5%/7%, respectively.

An interesting update, the broker comments, was the company indicating the possibility of "in-specie" distribution of Northern Star Resources ((NST)) shares as the most effective way of returning value to shareholders, following the merger with De Grey Mining ((DEG)).

The broker remains on research restriction.

Shaw and Partners rates MMI as Buy

Metro Mining achieved an average price of $62/wmt in 1Q25 from 184kt bauxite shipments, and Shaw and Partners now views the 6.5-7.0mt guidance for FY25 and its forecast of 6.6mt as conservative.

The broker also believes the company is well-positioned for a strong June quarter, with average price likely to exceed its $70/t forecast, given the lift in bauxite prices.

No change in forecasts made now, but an additional upside risk is the broker's $174m free cash flow forecast for FY25, which is not yet priced.

Buy, High risk. Target unchanged at 17c.