OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Bell Potter rates COG as Buy

COG Financial Services posted EBITDA that was in line with expectations. The company has an upbeat outlook for salary packaging, Bell Potter notes, while insurance broking was not addressed and acquisitions remain a prospect. No guidance was provided.

The broker highlights recent contract gains and overall business developments, including an increase in broker numbers of 5% and novated leases growing 53%. Buy rating unchanged. Target is reduced to $2.30 from $2.70.

Citi rates COL as Buy

Coles Group’s 1H26 earnings (EBIT) of $1,231m, excluding significant items and including associates, were around 1% below Citi and in line with consensus.

The broker expects only modest consensus downgrades of around -1% to -2% and views the share price reaction as overdone, given Coles is trading on a -22% FY26 PER discount to Woolworths Group ((WOW)), above the historical 10–20% range.

Management produced solid supermarket execution, with cost savings flowing through cost of goods sold, and the 40bps gross profit margin uplift largely reflecting lower tobacco and ADC benefits.

Liquor remains the weak point, with 1H26 earnings (EBIT) -14% below Citi’s forecast and structural health trends and competition from Endeavour weighing on the outlook, although the division contributes only modestly to group valuation.

The 2H26 like for like sales growth of 3.3% was slightly below consensus. EPS forecasts are tweaked lower by circa -2% to -3%.

Buy rating retained and target lowered to $23.00 from $24.00.

UBS rates NHF as Neutral

UBS notes APRA’s 2Q26 private health insurance (PHI) statistics show claims payments per person deteriorated/rose -7.3% in the December quarter and -4.2% over 2025.

These numbers highlight renewed pressure on margin sustainability, supporting the broker's Neutral rating on nib Holdings. Target unchanged at $7.20.

The analysts warn effective premium increases risk failing to keep pace with rising claims inflation, particularly as participation rates begin to plateau.