OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Macquarie rates LNW as Outperform

Eilers & Krejcik Gaming estimates 1Q26 global social casino revenue of US$1.64bn, down -5.5% year-on-year and -2.7% quarter-on-quarter.

Macquarie notes Light & Wonder's SciPlay generated US$186m in 1QCY26 social casino revenue, down -3.5% qoq and -6.8% yoy.

Eilers is a specialist US-based research and consulting firm focused on the gaming, digital entertainment and online wagering sectors.

The broker notes market share declined modestly to 11.3%, though remained stable in social slots. Jackpot Party, representing around 40% of revenue, stabilised sequentially but remains down -15% yoy, continuing to weigh on earnings, the analyst explains.

Target $205. Outperform.

Morgans rates SMR as Upgrade to Buy from Hold

Morgans upgrades Stanmore Resources to Buy from Hold due to share price weakness. Target price is lowered to $2.80 from $2.95 post 1Q26 update with a beat on saleable production at 3.18Mt against 3Mt forecast for the broker and consensus.

Notably, FOB cash cost guidance rose to US$98/t-US$103/t from US$93/t-US$97/t due to higher fuel costs prompting a rise in the analyst's forecast FOB costs to around US$99/t on the guidance update.

Average realised price of US$152/t was up 12% on 4Q2025 and 9% y/y with higher met coal pricing as wet weather impacted on supply.

Morgans believes met coal prices can move well above current expectations but Stanmore's existing production profile is starting to fall which means its earnings growth profile depends on higher prices, not volume growth.

Morgans rates SUN as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate

Suncorp Group has announced a five-year aggregate reinsurance deal, starting June 30 offering $800m in yearly protection and $2.4bn in total coverage over the period.

Morgans notes the deal has claims losses of $1.85bn slightly above the FY27 natural hazard forecast of $1.8bn. The deal is expected to lower future earnings volatility and the market is anticipated to view it positively.

Management's FY26 guidance is largely unchanged although the insurance trading result (ITR) is at the upper end of the 10%-12% range which is considered as more positive than the prior indication of "the top half".

Hazard claims are currently coming in below the broker's forecast. EPS forecasts are lifted slightly for FY26 and FY27.

Target price rises to $17.79 from $17 and the stock is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate due to the current share price.