OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform

Post yesterday's update see further below, Macquarie upgrades EPS forecasts by 15% due to higher refining margins and international trading and arbitrage gains.

FY27 EPS estimate slips by -1%.

The upcoming ACCC decision (June 5) for the completion of the EG Group acquisition is expected to let the deal go ahead, with the divestment of -37 sites against the original -19 sites offered.

This does not alter the analyst's positive view on the transaction.

Outperform retained with a higher target price of $40.80 from $40.

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Management at Ampol has today provided a March quarter trading update along with an update on fuel supply arrangements.

At first glance, Macquarie assesses a "solid" quarter, with a strong refining performance and better-than-expected fuel volumes in Australia, partly supported by March "panic buying".

While output was in line with the analyst's forecast, refining margins at Lytton exceeded expectation, benefiting from elevated pricing during the conflict, while the company has secured crude supply despite higher costs.

The Fuels & Infrastructure division also benefited from one-off trading gains from stored and arbitrage cargoes, the broker explains.

Ampol is seen as well positioned to navigate volatility, supported by hedging and secured fuel supply, with demand remaining relatively stable despite rising costs.

Target $40.80. Outperform rating maintained.

Bell Potter rates AMA as Buy

AMA Group announced a modest 3Q26 earnings (EBITDA) beat of $17.9m, 2% better than Bell Potter's forecasts, due to stronger margins, although revenue was slightly below expectations.

Performance was mixed across divisions, with Capital Smart and Specialist Businesses outperforming while AMA Collision and Wales lagged, and operating cash flow missed due to a higher tax payment, the analyst details.

Management re-iterated FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance, prompting minor earnings forecast upgrades for FY26/FY27.

No dividend is anticipated in FY26, with a resumption in FY27, supported by the proposed share buyback. No change to Buy rating and $1.10 price target.

Citi rates BHP as Neutral

Citi assesses BHP Group delivered "steady" Q3 FY26 production, with copper output of 477kt in line with the consensus expectation. Iron ore shipments also broadly matched consensus despite seasonal weakness, the analysts observe.

Gold and silver by-product credits continue to support copper margins, the broker explains, contributing to an upgrade in unit cost guidance for Escondida.

While production guidance is unchanged, stronger output at Escondida and Antamina (copper/zinc in Peru) offsets weaker expectations at the Pampa Norte copper mine in Chile.

Citi expects modest FY26 earnings upgrades, driven by lower unit costs and favourable commodity price movements.

Target $54. Neutral.