OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Shaw and Partners rates BWN as Buy

The highlight of Bhagwan Marine's 1H26 update was strong free cash flow of $8.4m, beating Shaw and Partners' forecast of $2.5m. Tighter working capital discipline and net debt well below expectations were other positives.

Capex of $12.5m was in line with forecasts, with a further $6m vessel payment due in 2H26, while margins are expected to improve in 2H.

The broker downgraded FY26 EBITDA forecast by -3% following the lower-than-expected EBITDA from softer revenue in 1H26, but notes recent contract wins provide revenue support across the forecast period.

Buy, High Risk maintained. Target stays at 80c.

Citi rates NWL as Buy

Netwealth Group delivered strong custodial net flows of $4.06bn in 2Q26, slightly ahead of Citi’s forecasts despite one-off outflows.

Custodial FUA (funds under administration) reached $124.4bn, up 23% y/y, and 1% ahead of the broker’s forecast, with market movements contributing $0.6bn versus the analyst’s expectation of a negative impact.

The negative surprise was a lower-than-expected FY26 EBITDA margin guidance of 49%, -170bps lower versus the broker’s estimate, due to higher costs.

The analyst lifts its FY26 opex forecast to 24% growth, up $38m on FY25, which should result in a decline in the 2H26 gross earnings (EBITDA) margin.

Accordingly, Citi lowers its EPS forecasts by -2.5% for FY26 and -0.8% for FY27, with a slip in target price to $28.90 from $29.80. No change to Buy rating.

Morgans rates SFR as Hold

Morgans notes Sandfire Resources' December quarter (2Q26) was impacted by temporary disruptions at Motheo, leaving production 2H-weighted (46:54) to meet FY26 guidance.

Still, the broker remains confident of a stronger 2H26 outlook with remediation largely complete, improving plant availability and higher-grade ore from T3 and A4 feeding the plant

The broker notes 1H26 underlying EBITDA is expected to be US$304m, up 11% half-on-half, vs its forecast of US$309m and the consensus of US$329m.

Spot copper prices are 20% above forecasts, underpinning strong upgrade potential, making the current 7x FY26 EBITDA multiple more attractive if price strength persists, in the broker's view.

Hold. Target rises to $18.90 from $17.50.