OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Bell Potter rates AL3 as Speculative Buy

Bell Potter considers the receipt of a Letter of Intent (LOI) from the US Navy as a strategically important development for AML3D. The Navy plans to collaborate with the company on several key additive manufacturing initiatives.

AML3D’s Arcemy technology has been identified as pivotal to meeting the US Navy’s forecast of 100 system installations, highlight the analysts. Arcemy is a line of large-format, industrial metal 3D printers based on Wire-arc Additive Manufacturing.

The company is expected to contribute to the supply of around 400 components in 2026, rising to 1,600 by 2030, notes the broker. Management will be regularly briefed on demand forecasts to support an expansion of US production capacity.

Bell Potter also notes the recent opening of AML3D’s new advanced manufacturing facility in Ohio on June 20.

There are no changes to financial forecasts, as the broker had already factored in increased system sales to the US maritime sector. However, the LOI has prompted a reduction in the applied WACC to 10.1% and an increase in the EV/Revenue multiple to 7.5 times.

Bell Potter retains a Speculative Buy rating and raises the target to 35c from 30c.

Morgans rates AQZ as Buy

Alliance Aviation Services' sale of 12 surplus E190 engines to Beautech for around $60m has happened quicker than anticipated. Morgans' expected the entire transaction to take place in FY26, but 10 of the 12 engines will be delivered in FY25, reducing net debt and generating free cash flow.

The broker now expects FY25 net debt at $390m vs $428.5 previously and left the FY26 forecast unchanged. 

With further debt reduction plans for FY26 and capex requirement for 10 additional E190 aircrafts, the analyst now thinks the company will have to monetise some of the incoming aircraft, leading to lower net profit.

Buy. Target cut to $3.80 from $3.90 after FY26-27 net profit before tax forecasts cut by -3.3% and -0.9%, respectively.

Citi rates BRG as Neutral

Citi regards Breville Group's official launch in China via a digital-only strategy for the coffee category as positive, but doesn't believe it will turn into a meaningful opportunity. This is because the coffee category in China is only a small proportion (2% in volume terms) of the overall small kitchen appliance market.

The broker sees more opportunity in the cooking and food preparation categories, though a headwind would be a higher concentration of competitor brands vs the US market.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $38.20.