OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Bell Potter rates HVN as Buy

Back in February, Harvey Norman’s 1H26 result was broadly in line with Bell Potter's expectations, with solid system sales growth supported by resilient franchising margins. However, it's noted trading softened toward the end of the half.

Early second-half trends now show modest improvement, the broker observes, but tougher comparables and weaker consumer sentiment are expected to weigh on growth.

Some categories such as furniture and bedding are seen as facing increased risk.

The analysts' earnings forecasts have been downgraded across FY26-FY28, reflecting a more cautious outlook. The target is lowered to $6.70 from $8.30.

A  Buy rating is retained with Bell Potter citing attractive valuation following the recent share price decline.

Morgans rates PXA as Accumulate

Morgans explains Ipart’s methodology paper signals a more structured and potentially restrictive pricing framework for Electronic Lodgment Network Operators (ELNOs), with implications for Pexa Group's future returns and pricing flexibility.

The broker highlights downside risk from the proposed exclusion of goodwill in the initial asset base calculation, noting this could materially reduce allowable pricing, while acknowledging some offset from first-mover costs and uncapitalised expenditure.

The consultation process introduces near-term uncertainty, which is expected by the analyst as possibly impacting on sentiment until further clarity emerges.

EPS forecasts are tweaked lower while the assumption of a -15% discount to the valuation for potential regulatory risk results in a downgrade in the target price to $14.31 from $17.01. Accumulate rating retained.

Citi rates TBN as Buy, High Risk

Citi views two recent transactions in the Beetaloo Basin, one adjacent and one direct to Tamboran Resources, as positive incremental steps.

In particular, the entrance of a top global LNG producer such as Inpex Corp into the Basin is seen as resetting the valuation benchmark.

It's felt the deals offer greater clarity on strategy and positioning ahead of a larger anticipated farm-down for Phase 2 of the company's Beetaloo Basin development.

These transactions are seen as partially validating the project, supporting investor interest and helping to accelerate the development timeline.

Citi lifts Tamboran Resources' target price to US$65 from US$37 (NYSE listing). Buy, High Risk maintained. Execution risks remain, the analysts caution.