OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Shaw and Partners rates BVS as Buy

Shaw and Partners reiterates a Buy rating on Bravura Solutions post the 1H26 result with a $2.50 target price.

Revenue rose 10% y/y and was better than expected, with recurring revenue growth of around 11% y/y, while cash earnings (EBITDA) rose 71% y/y, which infers a margin of 24%, a rise of 8 points against the same period last year.

The company had pre-announced and upgraded FY26 guidance, with the broker noting forecasts align with the mid-point on revenue and towards the upper end of cash earnings (EBITDA).

Citi rates HUB as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral

Citi upgrades Hub24 to Buy from Neutral, citing margin upside and positioning as an AI beneficiary. Recent share price weakness is seen as a buying opportunity.

The share price has weakened amid disruption concerns after Altruist launched an AI-driven tax planning platform, the broker explains.

The analyst also opens a positive catalyst watch into the 1H result given potential for the share price to react positively to the margin expansion.

The broker's target is trimmed by -4% to $100.60 on lower peer multiples. Near-term EBITDA is expected to beat on lower costs.

For February 19 results, the broker forecasts 1H2 core profit (NPATA) of $63m, up 47% year-on-year and 4% above consensus. Earnings margins are seen as expanding strongly, despite slight pressure on platform revenue margins from fee tiering and cash mix.

The analysts expect opex guidance of 18-20% growth to be reiterated, weighted to the 2H. Upside to flows and potential FY27 upgrades are also flagged. 

Citi rates NCK as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy

Upon further analysis of Nick Scali's interim results, Citi lowers its target to $19.20 from $27.95 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy, citing a tougher macro backdrop and slowing Australian sales. The broker sees EPS-accretive acquisitions as the key upside risk.

January written sales growth of just over 3%, and 3.2% for the order book, signals to the analysts moderation from stronger first-half trends. A&NZ growth is expected to soften further amid rate rises and tougher comparables. 

During the subsequent analyst call, management expressed encouragement with UK trading momentum, highlights the broker, indicating breakeven is likely in the near term while prioritising further store openings.

A summary of Citi's initial research on result's day follows.

In an initial assessment of today's interim result by Nick Scali, Citi notes profit of $41m beat guidance and consensus. A 39cps dividend also compares to the 32c expected by the market. Gross margin reached 65.4% (consensus 64.8%) with A&NZ expansion of 150bps.

The broker highlights stronger UK margins and disciplined costs. Management guided to six new A&NZ stores in FY26. UK January sales were robust, suggest the analysts, though 1H UK revenue lagged forecasts.

On the flipside, Citi feels investors may be underwhelmed by A&NZ January 2026 written sales growth of 3.1%, particularly given an easy comparative period.

Also, the current order book suggests to the broker current consensus 2H26 revenue expectations could prove optimistic amid rising interest rates.