Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Nov 16, 2023

This story features APA GROUP, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: APA

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

APA   ASX   CNI   FMG   HFR   IDX   IPD   JHX   NDO (2)   TLS   TPG   WBC (2)   XRO  

APA    APA GROUP

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $8.45

Jarden rates ((APA)) as Overweight (2) –

After reviewing the rationale, risks and opportunities arising from APA Group's recent acquisition of Alinta Energy's power assets in the Pilbara, Jarden lowers its target to $9.20 from $10.15.

The broker factors in re-contracting risk at the two acquired gas power stations, particularly as key customer Fortescue Metals ((FMG)) is aiming to reduce reliance upon fossil fuel energy supplies.

Many resource companies, including key growth targets, are stating a desire to own critical infrastructure directly, note the analysts.

Despite this negative, Jarden believes the group's balance sheet is positioned for growth, and an Overweight rating is maintained.

This report was published on November 8, 2023.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $8.45 Difference: $0.75
If APA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.10, suggesting upside of 7.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 20.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.4, implying annual growth of 0.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.50 cents and EPS of 22.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of 0.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX    ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $57.06

Jarden rates ((ASX)) as Neutral (3) –

Despite stronger futures growth in October, Jarden's earnings per share forecast for ASX in FY24 has declined -0.6%, with collateral balances still down -15% on the previous comparable period and equity turnover down -10%. 

Average daily futures volumes were up 34% on the previous comparable period in October, ahead of an expected cash rate rise. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $58.80 are retained.

This report was published on November 6, 2023.

Target price is $58.80 Current Price is $57.06 Difference: $1.74
If ASX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $60.62, suggesting upside of 6.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 213.80 cents and EPS of 251.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 248.9, implying annual growth of 51.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 214.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 225.50 cents and EPS of 265.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 254.8, implying annual growth of 2.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 217.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNI    CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $1.41

Jarden rates ((CNI)) as Neutral (3) –

As part of Centuria Capital's 1Q trading update, management revealed the sale of $100m worth of assets from Centuria Office REIT ((COF)) and Centuria Industrial REIT ((CIP)), and noted demand for smaller transactions remains robust.

The REIT is focusing on logistics, alternatives and credit, which makes sense to the broker in the current environment, yet capital structure remains the key debate for investors. It's felt the market awaits more initiatives to improve balance sheet flexibility.

FY24 guidance was confirmed for a dividend of 10cpu and operating EPS (OEPS) of between 11.5-12cpu, in line with forecasts by consensus and the broker. Neutral. Target $1.60.

This report was published on November 9, 2023.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.41 Difference: $0.19
If CNI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.58, suggesting upside of 11.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 11.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.7, implying annual growth of -11.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 13.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.5, implying annual growth of 6.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG    FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $25.18

Goldman Sachs rates ((FMG)) as Sell (5) –

Having announced its strategy pivot to green hydrogen in 2020, Fortescue Metals continues to target approval and final investment decisions on five green hydrogen and ammonia projects by the end of 2023. 

The company's most advanced project, says Goldman Sachs, is the Gibson Island green ammonia brownfield retrofit. Final investment decision for the project is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2023, ahead of front end engineering & design in the first quarter of 2024. 

Based on capital expenditure, electicity costs and pricing estimates, Goldman Sachs assumes a net present value for Gibson Island of US$1bn, estimating the company would need to sell green ammonia above US$1,500 per tonne or green hydrogen at US$8.50 per kilogram to generate a positive net present value.  

The Sell rating and target price of $16.30 are retained.

This report was published on November 6, 2023.

Target price is $16.30 Current Price is $25.18 Difference: minus $8.88 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.78, suggesting downside of -29.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 110.06 cents and EPS of 199.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 230.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 159.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 69.35 cents and EPS of 140.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 182.1, implying annual growth of -20.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 134.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HFR    HIGHFIELD RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.40

Canaccord Genuity rates ((HFR)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity is frustrated full construction at Highfield Resources' 100%-owned Muga-Vipasca Potash project in Spain is yet to occur. However, it's felt the required equity support from a strategic partner to achieve a positive investment decision will be achieved.

This view follows an update of capex and opex assumptions for the project, with inflation impacts less than the analyst anticipated.

The Speculative Buy rating is retained and the target falls to $1.21 from $1.50 after the broker allows for a heightened level of financing risk and a delay in first production for Stage 1 to very late-2025.

This report was published on November 8, 2023.

Target price is $1.21 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.815
If HFR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 206% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.63.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.76.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IDX    INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $1.83

Jarden rates ((IDX)) as Neutral (3) –

After a further review of Integral Diagnostics' Q1 trading update, Jarden lowers its target price further to $2.38 from $2.58 due to the absence of margin improvement. The Neutral rating is maintained.

In prior research issued after the results, the broker lowered the target to $2.58 from $3.23 and downgraded to Neutral from Overweight for reasons summarised below:

Integral Diagnostics' Q1 update surprised negatively with growth lagging the market, labour costs pressuring margins and with higher-than-anticipated D&A and non-interest expenses.

Jarden bemoans the absence of the operating leverage that was flagged by management to continue into FY24. The broker reminds investors yesterday's update follows on from the market update that occurred on August 28.

Not exactly evidence management has everything under control and is capable of predicting where things are heading internally. We are paraphrasing now, but such is the sentiment inside Jarden's response.

The former paragraph also explains why the broker has pulled back to Neutral from Overweight. Target tumbles to $2.58 from $3.23. Estimates have been culled.

This report was published on November 8, 2023.

Target price is $2.38 Current Price is $1.83 Difference: $0.545
If IDX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.24, suggesting upside of 21.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 7.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of -29.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.40 cents and EPS of 9.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.9, implying annual growth of 43.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPD    IMPEDIMED LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.14

Wilsons rates ((IPD)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons moves away from modeling Core SaaS revenue for ImpediMed on an installed-base basis for US SOZO devices and adopts quarterly total contract values (TCVs) as the driver.

The new valuation method minimises the risk of ‘high’ pricing assumptions distorting forecasts in future, as calculated average selling price (ASP) increases will be slower to manifest, explain the analysts.

The broker lowers revenue forecasts and attributes around 50% of the fall in target to 26c from 39c to the new valuation method and the balance from a flatter rate of product adoption in the short-to medium-term. Overweight.

This report was published on November 8, 2023.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.125
If IPD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 33.75.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX    JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $47.42

Goldman Sachs rates ((JHX)) as Buy (1) –

The 2Q result for James Hardie Industries was in line with expectations held by Goldman Sachs. Stronger price/volumes outcomes were largely offset by higher-than-expected SG&A expenses, and a more muted cost-of-goods-sold (COGS) tailwind than expected.

The share price kicker came from substantially better 3Q guidance than the broker anticipated due to higher-than-forecast guidance for North American volumes.

Guidance for a FY24 earnings (EBIT) margin of 30-32% in North America compared to the brokers 27.6% forecast, largely due to operating leverage associated with the increased volume guidance, explain the analysts. 

The results and management's outlook commentary indicate market share gains are accelerating, importantly on robust margins, notes Goldman Sachs. The target rises to $54.45 from $50.90. Buy.

This report was published on November 9, 2023.

Target price is $54.45 Current Price is $47.42 Difference: $7.03
If JHX meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $54.54, suggesting upside of 15.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 241.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 249.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 266.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 282.1, implying annual growth of 13.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NDO    NIDO EDUCATION LIMITED

Childcare – Overnight Price: $0.93

Moelis rates ((NDO)) as Buy (1) –

As a result of its incubator partnership model, Nido Education has the opportunity to acquire high-quality, custom-built, long day care (LDC) early childhood education centres, explains Moelis.

The company manages these centres from initial opening, notes the broker, and holds an exclusive option to acquire once key operating metrics have been achieved.

Moelis initiates research coverage with a Buy rating and $1.34 target. 

Occupancy across the 52 existing owned centres is expected to rise to 86% by 2026 from 74% in 2023. Also, around 15 centres per year should be acquired through the incubator pipeline, thereby growing the centre network to 84 by 2026, explains the broker.

This report was published on November 3, 2023.

Target price is $1.34 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.41
If NDO meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.29.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.40 cents and EPS of 7.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.74.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((NDO)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) –

Wilsons believes Nido Education offers the highest-quality child care exposure on the ASX and initiates research coverage with an Overweight rating and $1.32 target price.

The broker suggests the company's partnership with a third-party incubator creates a superior risk-adjusted growth profile.

There is material upside to the analyst's conservative FY24 earnings estimates should the occupancy level forecast of 82% (the prospectus forecast also) be exceeded. It's noted levels are already ahead of forecasts for FY23 year-to-date.

Wilsons cites other positives including several long-term structural industry tailwinds, including bipartisan government funding support, along with increasing female and dual-partner workforce participation.

This report was published on November 8, 2023.

Target price is $1.32 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.39
If NDO meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 25.14.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.20 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.30.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLS    TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $3.83

Jarden rates ((TLS)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Jarden calculates a combined telecommunications industry return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.9%, and notes Telstra Group's sector-leading ROIC of 8.7%. Research coverage is initiated with a Buy rating and $4.30 target.

The broker sees a clear incentive for all players to drive revenue growth through price rather than market share, until industry returns normalise, which should lift all boats on a rising tide.

Key risks include an unexpected step-up in mobile competition and a regional roaming deal between TPG Group and Optus, explains the analyst. Potential upside is noted for InfraCo Fixed should management reassess its capital structure.

This report was published on November 7, 2023.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $0.47
If TLS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting upside of 16.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 7.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.7, implying annual growth of 9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPG    TPG TELECOM LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.81

Jarden rates ((TPG)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (2) –

Jarden calculates a combined telecommunications industry return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.9%, and notes Buy-rated Telstra Group's sector-leading ROIC of 8.7%, followed by TPG Telecom's 5.4%.

The broker sees a clear incentive for all players to drive revenue growth through price rather than market share, until industry returns normalise, which should lift all boats on a rising tide.

The analyst initiates research coverage for TPG Telecom with an Overweight rating and $5.40 target and sees potential for significant earnings and free cash flow growth on a three-year view.

A potential positive catalyst would be a regional network sharing/roaming deal, notes Jarden.

This report was published on November 7, 2023.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $0.59
If TPG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.18, suggesting upside of 28.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 82.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of -41.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 9.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 18.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC    WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks – Overnight Price: $21.15

Goldman Sachs rates ((WBC)) as Neutral (3) –

Westpac delivered few surprises with its full year result, says Goldman Sachs, with cash earnings of $7,221m representing significant growth on the previous year. Revenue and expenses were largely in line, and bad and doubtful debt was lower than expected. 

The bank warned inflation would likely drive cost pressure over the coming year, but does expect its cost reset program to partially offset.  

The bank also announced it will puruse technology simplification, which Goldman Sachs desrcibes as a "long time coming". The broker expects over time this will materially improve the bank's relative productivity positioning.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $22.70 from $22.59.

This report was published on November 6, 2023.

Target price is $22.70 Current Price is $21.15 Difference: $1.55
If WBC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.56, suggesting upside of 6.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 176.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 184.3, implying annual growth of -10.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 177.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 188.5, implying annual growth of 2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((WBC)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

Jarden has described Westpac's full year result as "better-than-feared", and highlighted capital is tracking better. The bank announced a $1.5m buyback to be completed over the next six months, and the broker sees potential for further capital management over the year. 

The broker was looking for early signs of a multi-year turnaround from the bank, and with the bank signalling its CORE program is now largely complete it is expected to begin the four plus year process of investing to simplify. 

The rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underweight and the target price increases to $21.60 from $21.40.

This report was published on November 6, 2023.

Target price is $21.60 Current Price is $21.15 Difference: $0.45
If WBC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.56, suggesting upside of 6.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 142.00 cents and EPS of 180.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 184.3, implying annual growth of -10.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 143.00 cents and EPS of 183.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 188.5, implying annual growth of 2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

XRO    XERO LIMITED

Accountancy – Overnight Price: $101.95

Wilsons rates ((XRO)) as Overweight (1) –

Xero's 1H result revealed both revenue and gross margin were around -2% short of consensus forecasts, according to Wilsons. It's noted opex as a percentage of revenue will need to fall by around -800bps to 71% in the 2H to achieve FY24 guidance of around 75%.

The broker points out recent and future price rises are partially offsetting slowing subscription growth, though the latter will probably need to re-accelerate as price rises normalise to more modest levels.

Positively, the analysts highlight 1H free cash flow of $100m, which included a -$31m headwind from one-off redundancy payments

Wilsons retains its Overweight rating and $126.93 target.

This report was published on November 10, 2023.

Target price is $126.93 Current Price is $101.95 Difference: $24.98
If XRO meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $110.62, suggesting upside of 8.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 137.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 73.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 169.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 215.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.4, implying annual growth of 65.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 102.6.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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