Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jan 29, 2025

This story features AIC MINES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A1M

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

A1M   BGL   BSA   CCP   CSL   FEX   GOR   IGO   IMM   IPX   KGN   KMD   LTR   MND   NXL   RMD   SOM   VEA   WTC  

A1M    AIC MINES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.34

Moelis rates ((A1M)) as Buy (1) –

AIC Mines’ 2QFY25 production beat Moelis’ estimate and while costs were slightly higher, the broker notes this related to the sale of September inventory.

Overall, costs remained broadly in line with expectations, with 2Q significantly below the company’s FY25 guidance reflecting a degree of conservatism in the inflation assumptions for mining inputs when guidance was established. The broker sees potential for further cost reduction.

Target price 69c and Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on January 28, 2025.

Target price is $0.69 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.355
If A1M meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 106% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.78, suggesting upside of 130.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.6, implying annual growth of 182.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.5, implying annual growth of 41.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BGL    BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.10

Goldman Sachs rates ((BGL)) as Buy (1) –

Bellevue Gold reported 2Q production of 26koz at a cost (AISC) of $2,765/oz, slightly exceeding consensus estimates, observes Goldman Sachs.

FY25 production guidance has lowered to 150-165koz from 165-180koz, while cost guidance has been increased to $1,900-2,100/oz from $1,750-1,850/oz.

Underground mining has exceeded a 1mtpa run rate, with no further need for open-pit feed, supporting a production uplift for the second half of FY25, highlight the analysts.

Management plans a five-year expansion to reach 250kozpa by FY28 and reduce costs (AISC) to $1,500-1,600/oz. 

Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating and lowers the target price to $1.50 from $1.55, reflecting revised production and cost expectations.

This report was published on January 29, 2025.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.395
If BGL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 34.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.1, implying annual growth of 39.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of 78.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSA    BSA LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $1.04

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BSA)) as Buy (1) –

BSA upgraded FY25 EBITDA guidance to $26-28m from $24-27m after reporting 2Q25 EBITDA of $7.5m, up 31.5% year on year and 10.5% margins vs 8.8% in the previous corresponding period. 

Canaccord Genuity notes the strong result reflected ongoing volumes in the group’s core telecommunications work, coupled with a favourable mix of work and pricing management.

The broker lifted its EPS forecasts for FY25 and FY26 by 12% and 8%. Petra reminded the pending nbn tender represents a significant
event, but in its view the company appears well-positioned to continue.

Target price rises to $1.85 from $1.75. Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on January 24, 2025.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.04 Difference: $0.81
If BSA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.79.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.58.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCP    CREDIT CORP GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $17.36

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CCP)) as Buy (1) –

Ahead of 1H25 result, Canaccord Genuity expects Credit Corp to report $230m of cash collections and $266m of group revenue. 

The broker notes management is working towards its FY25 guidance which it sees as being comfortably achievable, confirming growth optionality in the US market. The broker’s net profit forecast is $95m compared with management guidance of $90-100m.

Canaccord sees medium-term growth in the US as the core driver of group earnings and improved group returns. Near-term potential catalysts for the company include US peer reporting, macro/economic data updates and 1H25 reporting.

Buy rating and $20.7 target price maintained.

This report was published on January 28, 2025.

Target price is $20.70 Current Price is $17.36 Difference: $3.34
If CCP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $19.83, suggesting upside of 11.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 138.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.0, implying annual growth of 90.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 152.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 161.5, implying annual growth of 13.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL    CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $272.48

Goldman Sachs rates ((CSL)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs observes CSL has received approval for registration of Andembry (garadacimab) by the Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration, alongside approval from the UK regulatory body for use in the UK.

The analyst highlights these are the initial two regions for Andembry. It is also under review in the US, Japan, and EU. Management anticipate US FDA and EU approval by 30 June 2025.

Goldman Sachs forecasts around $250m in sales from the product in FY26. Buy rating and $325.40 target price are retained.

This report was published on January 28, 2025.

Target price is $325.40 Current Price is $272.48 Difference: $52.92
If CSL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $333.79, suggesting upside of 21.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 463.06 cents and EPS of 1031.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1086.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 486.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 508.76 cents and EPS of 1186.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1263.8, implying annual growth of 16.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 551.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FEX    FENIX RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $0.27

Petra Capital rates ((FEX)) as Buy (1) –

The highlight of Fenix Resources’ December quarter report was production from two iron ore mines, with the company making maiden sales of 241kt from the restart of Shine Mine.

Petra Capital observes consistent performance from Iron Ridge Mine but notes despite cost control, margins are around 50% lower vs year before due to a decline in iron ore prices.

While Shine Mine successfully commissioned on budget, both sales and cost missed Petra’s estimates. 

The broker reiterates the company’s potential for further growth but revised the target price to 40c from 42c on cost and iron ore price revisions. Buy rating retained.

This report was published on January 28, 2025.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.135
If FEX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.30 cents and EPS of 4.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.46.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.60 cents and EPS of 5.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.82.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GOR    GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.40

Goldman Sachs rates ((GOR)) as Buy (1) –

Prior to an 4Q operational update, Gold Road Resources released 2025 production guidance of 325-355koz and costs (AISC) of $2,400-$2,600/oz , broadly in line with Goldman Sachs’ estimates.

This guidance reflects an 18% production uplift year-on-year due to higher-grade ore access, explain the analysts.

The broker highlights a three-year outlook of 335-375kozpa supported by improvements in plant throughput, including upgrades to the processing plant and commissioning of a pebble crusher.

Cash generation remains strong, in the analysts’ view, with free cash flow yields of 5-10% projected for 2025-2027.

Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating and target price of $2.65, citing strong production potential and limited capital requirements.

This report was published on January 29, 2025.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $0.25
If GOR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.43, suggesting upside of 1.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.6, implying annual growth of 26.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.4, implying annual growth of 64.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $5.15

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IGO)) as Sell (5) –

IGO Limited’s announcement it will cease all works on Kwinana Lithium Hydroxide Plant 2 (49% holding in Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia JV) comes as no surprise to Canaccord Genuity.

The broker expects a significant write-down with the financial result as goodwill is wound back.

The broker remains cautious and will look to reported numbers next week for an indication of how the ramp-up trajectory looks, noting operational ability, associated infrastructure and cost structures need to be aligned to deliver sustainable returns.

Sell rating and $4.3 target price retained.

This report was published on January 24, 2025.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: minus $0.85 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.46, suggesting upside of 6.4%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.6, implying annual growth of 1413.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 91.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of 237.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IMM    IMMUTEP LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.33

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IMM)) as Buy (1) –

After further analysing TACTI-003 Cohort B data, Canaccord Genuity anticipates medium overall survival (mOS) for Immutep’s Efti + Keytruda combination to sit at 13.5-19.5 months. 

This compares very favourably to the Keynote-048 study that showed an overall survival of 7.9 months in the Keytruda monotherapy group and mOS of 11.3 months in the Keytruda plus chemo group.

The broker looks forward to more data on how long the drug works on patients, noting at the company’s December update this was 9.3 months and compared favourably with 6 months for Keytruda plus chemo combination.

Buy rating and $0.95 target maintained.

This report was published on January 24, 2025.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.625
If IMM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 192% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPX    IPERIONX LIMITED

Industrial Metals – Overnight Price: $3.74

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IPX)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

IperionX announced the successful commissioning of its 125tpa Phase 1 Hydrogen Assisted Metallothermic Reduction furnace in December and completed the first end-to-end production runs to titanium metal scrap feedstock.

The company is also progressively commissioning the Virginia facility ahead of routine production cycles.

Canaccord Genuity highlights commissioning and production ramp-up should be seen as proof of concept and is an important de-risking milestone.

The company identified opportunities that could see the facility exceed its 125tpa design capacity by the end of 2025 and Canaccord notes this could support a faster increase in production rates as furnace capacity is expanded

The broker made revisions to corporate costs and production ramp-up, resulting in a downgrade to EPS estimates for FY25-26. Speculative Buy rating and $6.65 target price are retained.

This report was published on January 28, 2025.

Target price is $6.65 Current Price is $3.74 Difference: $2.91
If IPX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 74.80.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 93.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KGN    KOGAN.COM LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $4.79

Canaccord Genuity rates ((KGN)) as Buy (1) –

Kogan.com’s sales, revenue and gross profit in the 1H25 result exceeded Canaccord Genuity’s expectations.

However, increased marketing spend going into the peak retailing period and operational issues with MightyApe proved a drag on EBITDA which came in at $25m versus the broker’s $28m estimate.

The broker cut FY25 and FY26 EBITDA forecasts by -7% and -4% respectively. Target price reduced to $8.0 from $8.2. Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on January 24, 2025.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: $3.21
If KGN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.14, suggesting upside of 7.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.10 cents and EPS of 29.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 25775.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 23.90 cents and EPS of 36.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.7, implying annual growth of 19.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KMD    KMD BRANDS LIMITED

Sports & Recreation – Overnight Price: $0.37

Canaccord Genuity rates ((KMD)) as Hold (3) –

KMD Brands’ 1H25 trading update was nothing to write home about, in Canaccord Genuity’s view, but the broker was pleased to see gross margins were resilient despite promotional activity and net debt remains on a downward trajectory.

The broker notes Kathmandu’s performance improvement, including a recent turnaround in New Zealand momentum, suggests a product offering that may be starting to resonate more strongly with the consumer. 

The broker will wait for more colour on this in the 1H25 result, anticipating solid direct-to-consumer execution for both the Kathmandu and Rip Curl brands.

Canaccord has amended FY25 revenue forecasts by -1% and also lowered its FY26 estimate. Target price cut to 42c from 48c. Hold rating retained.

This report was published on January 28, 2025.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.05
If KMD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.13.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.90 cents and EPS of 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.42.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LTR    LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.66

Jarden rates ((LTR)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

Jarden incorporated a lower long-term lithium SC6 price of US$1,200/dmt (previously US$1,400/dmt) into Liontown Resources’ forecasts and lower forex, and also made changes to its core assumptions after the December quarter update.

Specifically, the broker noted management mentioning freight rates of $30/t (and “as low as $19/t where we can co-charter”), a number well below its prior $50/t assumption.

The broker is forecasting further cash burn of over -$100m in the current half before accounting for timing of sales, provisional pricing adjustments and working capital.

Target price lowered to 63c from 68c; rating upgraded to Neutral from Underweight.

This report was published on January 29, 2025.

Target price is $0.63 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.74, suggesting upside of 9.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 136.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND    MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $15.36

Goldman Sachs rates ((MND)) as Sell (5) –

After further analysis of Monadelphous Group’s guidance upgrade, Goldman Sachs raises its target to $13.40 from $12.95 and maintains a Sell rating.

FNArena’s summary of Goldman’s original research follows.

Goldman Sachs highlights Monadelphous Group announced 1H25 net profit after tax is expected to come in above consensus expectations, with guidance in the range of $40m-$43m compared to consensus at circa $33m.

The analyst attributes the difference to a favourable after-tax variance in non-operating items of $7m. Excluding this, the broker notes management’s updated range is approximately 5% above the forecast and consensus estimate.

This report was published on January 29, 2025.

Target price is $13.40 Current Price is $15.36 Difference: minus $1.96 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $14.86, suggesting downside of -3.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.2, implying annual growth of 11.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 80.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.7, implying annual growth of 7.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXL    NUIX LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $4.31

Moelis rates ((NXL)) as Buy (1) –

Nuix released an update ahead of 1H25 result, expecting 1H25 anualised contract value to grow 8-9% vs the year before, and 11-16% for FY25 vs previous guidance of 15% for the full year.

The guidance range has moderated Moelis’ confidence the company will achieve its full year target.

Other highlight from the update included announcement a lower proportion of R&D expense will be capitalised which the broker notes will reduce reported EBITDA for 1H25 relative to 1H24.

The broker has cut FY25 revenue forecast, made minor revision to long term sales forecasts, resulting in reduced earnings valuation.

Target price drops to $6.09 from $6.94. Buy rating maintained. 

This report was published on January 28, 2025.

Target price is $6.09 Current Price is $4.31 Difference: $1.78
If NXL meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 134.69.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 57.47.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMD    RESMED INC

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $40.30

Jarden rates ((RMD)) as Overweight (2) –

In its preview for ResMed’s 2Q25 result on January 31, Jarden highlights the focus has shifted back to the top line as the 2Q25 gross margin expectations of 59.4% (59.2% in 1Q25) sits well within the guidance range of 59-60%. Expectations of gross margin improvement are skewed towards 4Q25.

The broker expects cash generation to continue to be a feature of the result as gearing turns to a net cash position and expectations likely build for the company to be more definitive with its share buyback.

Overall, the broker believes the result, despite recent share price strength, has the potential to surprise on the upside given the momentum in devices and masks and via a potentially better-than-expected gross margin.

Target price $36.6. Overweight rating unchanged.

This report was published on January 28, 2025.

Target price is $36.60 Current Price is $40.30 Difference: minus $3.7 (current price is over target).
If RMD meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $41.08, suggesting upside of 2.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 37.32 cents and EPS of 150.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 151.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 48.44 cents and EPS of 172.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 165.6, implying annual growth of 9.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SOM    SOMNOMED LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.66

Wilsons rates ((SOM)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilson raises its target for SomnoMed by 70% (not a typo) to 80c, maintaining its Overweight rating, citing a strong earnings (EBITDA) recovery and improved operational efficiency following last year’s restructuring.

A 2Q trading update shows group revenue rising by 19% year-on-year to $53.7m, supported by a 37% increase in US sales and better manufacturing capacity, which helped recapture lost customers and reduce turnaround times, explains the broker.

Revenue guidance remains at $105m, while EBITDA guidance has been raised to $7-9m from more than $7m.

The broker notes ongoing demand growth in the global sleep apnoea market, bolstered by increased awareness and referrals, and sees the business benefiting from favourable sector tailwinds.

This report was published on January 29, 2025.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.145
If SOM meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 218.33.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 93.57.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VEA    VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $2.63

Goldman Sachs rates ((VEA)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs describes Viva Energy Group’s 2024 performance as soft, with unaudited earnings (EBITDA) of $750m, -4% below the broker’s estimate and -12% under consensus, impacted by higher operating expenses at the Geelong refinery.

Geelong’s 4Q earnings were affected by unplanned maintenance, while Convenience and Mobility earnings are expected at the lower end of guidance, driven by weaker tobacco sales.

More positively, Commercial and Industrial segments achieved record quarterly sales, supporting medium-term growth prospects, suggest the analysts.

The broker revises 2024-2026 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts downwards by -5% to -9%, reflecting both elevated costs at Geelong and a refinery turnaround in 2025.

Goldman Sachs lowers the target price to $3.25 from $3.35 and retains a Buy rating, citing defensive refining margins and cost reduction initiatives as key growth drivers.

This report was published on January 29, 2025.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.63 Difference: $0.62
If VEA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 30.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of 7020.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of 5.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WTC    WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $119.64

Jarden rates ((WTC)) as Neutral (3) –

Ahead of Wise Tech Global’s 1H25 result, the key question for Jarden is how to bridge 1H estimates to 2H operating performance estimates.

The broker reminds Wise Tech lowered FY25 guidance in November, citing a delay in the commercial launch of the Container Transport Optimisation module. The delay was expected to shift some revenue and profit into FY26.

The broker has built a new model due to a change in the company’s functional and presentation currency to USD from AUD. 

In USD terms, the broker forecasts 1H25 revenue growth of 20% y/y to US$393m vs consensus of 19% growth in AUD terms. 

No change to $116 target price. Neutral rating stays.

This report was published on January 29, 2025.

Target price is $116.00 Current Price is $119.64 Difference: minus $3.64 (current price is over target).
If WTC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 73.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 162.33.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 104.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 114.93.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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