Weekly Reports | May 02 2025
This story features ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALL
The company is included in ASX20, ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED ((ALL)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden upgrades its rating for Aristocrat Leisure to Overweight from Neutral following recent share price underperformance. The target remains at $68.
The broker highlights strong recurring revenues, robust free cash flow reinvestment, ongoing market share gains, and growth in direct-to-consumer digital sales as key positives. A resilient performance is expected even in a weaker US consumer environment.
Risks include a US economic slowdown, gaming market volatility, executive turnover, and the potential for expensive or poorly integrated M&A, with Jarden expecting the $750m buy-back to support the share price if no major acquisitions eventuate.
AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Goldman Sachs notes AMP’s 1Q25 update pointed to a stable flows trend, with Platform net flow of $250m in line with the $200-300m seen in recent quarters.
Net outflows in Superannuation & Investments improved to -$108m vs -$371m in 1Q24, with AMP stating it is taking steps to improving retention. Loan growth at AMP Bank was weak, but there’s more focus on maintaining margin over volume.
Upgrade to Buy from Neutral. Target $1.48.
GENTRACK GROUP LIMITED ((GTK)) Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Wilsons upgrades Gentrack Group to Overweight from Market Weight, highlighting new hiring activity and momentum at Veovo, along with a potential major contract win in Bulgaria.
The analyst observes increased headcount and project scoping for Bulgaria’s largest energy supplier, suggesting supportive growth into the second half of FY25, with catalysts also including possible Tier 1 utility contracts and UK business-to-consumer water sector wins.
Wilsons’ earnings forecasts for FY25 remain unchanged, though the second half earnings skew is increased given continued re-investment in staffing.
Target price slips to $12.10 from $12.50, reflecting a lower valuation multiple offset partly by New Zealand dollar depreciation.
SOUTH32 LIMITED ((S32)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity upgrades South32 to Hold from Sell after the March quarter update, noting alumina and aluminium production met expectations while manganese, silver and copper were weaker.
The analyst highlights a -10% downgrade to Cannington production guidance due to geotechnical issues, along with higher cost expectations at US$195/t ore processed.
Despite industrial metal price weakness and Hermosa capital cost concerns, valuation metrics have improved with South32’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation multiple now 45 times, implying limited downside.
Canaccord Genuity’s FY25 earnings forecasts are raised by 9% on lower group costs, while FY26 is lowered by -3% on weaker copper revenues. Target price remains unchanged at $2.60.
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LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED ((LTR)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity lowers its rating on Liontown Resources to Sell from Hold, retaining a $0.50 target price, as balance sheet concerns persist despite a stronger-than-expected March quarter.
The analyst observes concentrate production of 96kt exceeded expectations on higher grades and recoveries, with lower unit costs of $1,081/t outperforming forecasts.
However, weak spodumene prices and looming repayments on the $300m Ford debt facility pose liquidity risks, with the company expected to face a cash crunch by early 2026 without refinancing or additional capital.
While management retained production guidance of 170185kt, costs are expected at the upper end of the range, and market conditions continue to pressure earnings.
The analyst’s earnings forecasts are largely unchanged, with downside risks tied to pricing, debt servicing, and balance sheet strength.
MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) Downgrade to Sell from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden downgrades Mineral Resources to Sell from Underweight, cutting the target price to $15.50 from $16.20.
The downgrade reflects escalating balance sheet risk, with net debt rising to $5.4bn at March-end and potential liabilities exceeding $7bn including payables and prepayments.
The analyst points to improved lithium cost performance, but Onslow guidance was reduced again, with shipment targets seen as unachievable without significant ramp-up.
Mining services volumes were weak and commentary suggests risks remain elevated across liquidity, debt serviceability, and governance.
Jarden lifts FY25 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by 11%, though earnings per share remain negative (loss-making) across FY2527.
The stock’s share price valuation assumes no equity dilution, but highlights risk of recapitalisation if funding markets become inaccessible.
The share price has rallied 43% and is now trading around 30% above valuation, which has prompted the downgrade.
TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED ((THL)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Tourism Holdings Rentals provided a trading update indicating to Jarden a further deterioration in vehicle sales and a slowdown in forward bookings in the US.
Management believes underlying profit for FY25 will be “significantly below” the current consensus forecast.
The broker notes a material decline in US tourism bookings, although rental demand outside the US remains positive, supporting a more stable outlook into FY26.
While net debt remains manageable under extended facilities, Jarden highlights a higher net debt to earnings, well above pre-covid levels, raising concerns over balance sheet pressure if trading conditions worsen further.
Jarden downgrades earnings forecasts by -32%-40% across FY25-27, reflecting reduced vehicle sales, lower rental revenue per asset, and a smaller fleet size. The target falls to NZ$3.00 from NZ$4.21 and the rating is downgraded to Overweight from Buy.
Jarden notes the company’s dominant A&NZ market position and resilience in rental yields, but also recognises uncertainty in North America due to tariff risks.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | |||||
| 1 | AMP LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Goldman Sachs | |
| 2 | ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Jarden | |
| 3 | GENTRACK GROUP LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Wilsons | |
| 4 | SOUTH32 LIMITED | Neutral | Sell | Canaccord Genuity | |
| Downgrade | |||||
| 5 | LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED | Sell | Neutral | Canaccord Genuity | |
| 6 | MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED | Sell | Sell | Jarden | |
| 7 | TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED | Buy | Buy | Jarden | |
Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29M | 29Metals | $0.12 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.12 | 0.13 | -7.69% |
| A1M | AIC Mines | $0.35 | Moelis | 0.72 | 0.69 | 4.35% |
| ALD | Ampol | $23.80 | Goldman Sachs | 30.80 | 30.60 | 0.65% |
| ALQ | ALS Ltd | $17.20 | Jarden | 14.50 | 14.40 | 0.69% |
| AMP | AMP | $1.29 | Jarden | 1.20 | 1.40 | -14.29% |
| BGL | Bellevue Gold | $0.88 | Jarden | 0.77 | 0.71 | 8.45% |
| BMN | Bannerman Energy | $2.42 | Canaccord Genuity | 3.74 | 4.08 | -8.33% |
| BOQ | Bank of Queensland | $7.46 | Jarden | 6.70 | 6.50 | 3.08% |
| BPT | Beach Energy | $1.18 | Jarden | 1.17 | 1.19 | -1.68% |
| CGF | Challenger | $7.16 | Goldman Sachs | 7.40 | 7.30 | 1.37% |
| Jarden | 7.50 | 7.40 | 1.35% | |||
| CKF | Collins Foods | $8.20 | Jarden | 9.95 | 9.40 | 5.85% |
| CYG | Coventry Group | $0.94 | Petra Capital | 1.24 | 1.41 | -12.06% |
| DHG | Domain Holdings Australia | $4.28 | Jarden | 4.43 | 3.30 | 34.24% |
| DVP | Develop Global | $3.26 | Canaccord Genuity | 5.05 | 4.80 | 5.21% |
| FCL | Fineos Corp | $2.22 | Moelis | 2.47 | 2.17 | 13.82% |
| FEX | Fenix Resources | $0.29 | Petra Capital | 0.40 | 0.39 | 2.56% |
| FLT | Flight Centre Travel | $12.93 | Canaccord Genuity | 13.25 | 17.10 | -22.51% |
| Jarden | 19.30 | 22.50 | -14.22% | |||
| Wilsons | 19.00 | 21.40 | -11.21% | |||
| GDG | Generation Development | $4.15 | Moelis | 5.72 | 5.92 | -3.38% |
| GOR | Gold Road Resources | $3.03 | Canaccord Genuity | 3.45 | 3.35 | 2.99% |
| GTK | Gentrack Group | $11.05 | Wilsons | 12.10 | 12.50 | -3.20% |
| HGO | Hillgrove Resources | $0.03 | Moelis | 0.06 | 0.07 | -14.29% |
| Wilsons | 0.08 | 0.09 | -11.11% | |||
| ILU | Iluka Resources | $4.06 | Goldman Sachs | 6.50 | 6.60 | -1.52% |
| KAR | Karoon Energy | $1.43 | Goldman Sachs | 2.13 | 2.01 | 5.97% |
| Jarden | 1.60 | 1.53 | 4.58% | |||
| LTR | Liontown Resources | $0.50 | Goldman Sachs | 0.63 | 0.64 | -1.56% |
| Jarden | 0.48 | 0.67 | -28.36% | |||
| LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | $8.29 | Canaccord Genuity | 8.80 | 8.20 | 7.32% |
| Goldman Sachs | 7.20 | 7.10 | 1.41% | |||
| M7T | Mach7 Technologies | $0.35 | Wilsons | 0.85 | 1.00 | -15.00% |
| MAC | MAC Copper | $14.34 | Moelis | 25.00 | 24.00 | 4.17% |
| MIN | Mineral Resources | $20.74 | Jarden | 15.50 | 16.20 | -4.32% |
| NAB | National Australia Bank | $36.00 | Jarden | 30.00 | 38.00 | -21.05% |
| NEM | Newmont Corp | $81.42 | Goldman Sachs | 93.40 | 95.50 | -2.20% |
| NWS | News Corp | $49.51 | Jarden | 53.00 | 54.60 | -2.93% |
| OBM | Ora Banda Mining | $1.03 | Moelis | 1.00 | 0.89 | 12.36% |
| PDN | Paladin Energy | $6.05 | Canaccord Genuity | 12.80 | 13.35 | -4.12% |
| PLS | Pilbara Minerals | $1.46 | Jarden | 2.40 | 2.50 | -4.00% |
| PNR | Pantoro Gold | $2.80 | Canaccord Genuity | 3.82 | 3.91 | -2.30% |
| Petra Capital | 4.45 | 0.22 | 1922.73% | |||
| PRN | Perenti | $1.37 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.48 | 1.35 | 9.63% |
| QOR | Qoria | $0.40 | Wilsons | 0.66 | 0.69 | -4.35% |
| RIO | Rio Tinto | $115.90 | Goldman Sachs | 140.80 | 141.90 | -0.78% |
| RMD | ResMed | $36.90 | Goldman Sachs | 49.30 | 46.90 | 5.12% |
| Jarden | 40.54 | 39.97 | 1.43% | |||
| S32 | South32 | $2.74 | Canaccord Genuity | 2.60 | 2.50 | 4.00% |
| SEK | Seek | $21.67 | Jarden | 27.50 | 28.00 | -1.79% |
| SFR | Sandfire Resources | $9.89 | Canaccord Genuity | 10.75 | 10.50 | 2.38% |
| Jarden | 10.90 | 11.20 | -2.68% | |||
| Wilsons | 11.00 | 10.80 | 1.85% | |||
| SHV | Select Harvests | $5.11 | Wilsons | 4.73 | 4.64 | 1.94% |
| STN | Saturn Metals | $0.29 | Petra Capital | 1.17 | 0.98 | 19.39% |
| STO | Santos | $5.92 | Goldman Sachs | 7.85 | 7.80 | 0.64% |
| THL | Tourism Holdings Rentals | $1.30 | Wilsons | 1.25 | 1.53 | -18.30% |
| VAU | Vault Minerals | $0.43 | Jarden | 0.57 | 0.58 | -1.72% |
| Moelis | 0.68 | 0.59 | 15.25% | |||
| WDS | Woodside Energy | $20.20 | Goldman Sachs | 24.20 | 23.90 | 1.26% |
| Jarden | 24.00 | 23.75 | 1.05% | |||
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
More Highlights
CCP CREDIT CORP GROUP LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit Overnight Price: $13.54
Canaccord Genuity rates ((CCP)) as Buy (1)
Canaccord Genuity maintains a positive view on Credit Corp, noting the stock’s -22% decline calendar year-to-date appears sentiment-driven rather than fundamentally justified.
Resilient US collections dynamics, a robust Australian lending book, and constructive tax refund data underpin comfort with the broker’s FY25 earnings forecast of $94m, which sits near the low end of guidance.
The analyst sees a longer-term pathway via building a scaled $200m lending book with a 15% return on equity.
Canaccord retains a Buy rating and $20.60 target.
This report was published on April 30, 2025.
Target price is $20.60 Current Price is $13.54 Difference: $7.06
If CCP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 138.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.81.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 152.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.91.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
D2O DUXTON WATER LIMITED
Agriculture Overnight Price: $1.50
Petra Capital rates ((D2O)) as Buy (1)
Petra Capital highlights Duxton Water remains well positioned amid ongoing warm and dry conditions across the southern Murray-Darling Basin. Falling dam levels and fading La Nina expectations suggest to the broker elevated spot water prices into late-2025.
The broker believes higher water prices will drive strong spot sales and lease yields, while the company’s ungeared balance sheet and multiple sale and leaseback opportunities offer upside risks to net tangible assets (NTA).
Despite these positives, Duxton Water trades at a circa -15% discount to NTA, wider than the historical average of -10%, presenting an attractive buying opportunity in the broker’s view.
Petra Capital retains a Buy rating and a $2.10 target price.
This report was published on April 29, 2025.
Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.6
If D2O meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY25:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.40 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.24.
Forecast for FY26:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.70 cents and EPS of 10.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.15.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GDG GENERATION DEVELOPMENT GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments Overnight Price: $4.12
Moelis rates ((GDG)) as Buy (1)
Generation Development Group reported solid third quarter growth, assesses Moelis, with investment bond funds under management (FUM) up 23% year-on-year to $3.95bn and sales inflows of $239m outperforming the broker’s estimates.
The broker highlights Lonsec delivered net inflows of $685m and launched a new growth alternatives strategy. FUM for newly acquired Evidentia rose 53% year-on-year to $13.5bn, with strong client mandate momentum expected to support inflows into FY26.
Headline FUM figures for Evidentia were negatively influenced by timing, but the analyst expects this to normalise over coming quarters.
Earnings growth continues to be driven by high-margin investment bond inflows, notes the broker, while Lonsec is on track to deliver an around 26% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in FUM over FY24-FY27.
Moelis reduces the target price to $5.72 from $5.92, but retains a Buy rating.
This report was published on April 29, 2025.
Target price is $5.72 Current Price is $4.12 Difference: $1.6
If GDG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.45, suggesting upside of 32.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 8.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.64.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.3, implying annual growth of 179.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.6.
Forecast for FY26:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.70 cents and EPS of 11.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.21.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of 42.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.9.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NAN NANOSONICS LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices Overnight Price: $4.59
Wilsons rates ((NAN)) as Overweight (1)
Following a site tour of Nanosonics’ facilities to see the Coris system in operation, Wilsons believes the product could get 2-3 times higher average selling price than initially assumed.
The broker also thinks its assumption for the Quantum consumable pricing revenue is on the conservative side.
The analyst reiterated Coris would become earnings before interest and tax positive in a few years and the current share pricing only factors 50% of the value.
Overweight. Target unchanged at $6.
This report was published on April 23, 2025.
Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.59 Difference: $1.41
If NAN meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 1.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 85.00.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.2, implying annual growth of 44.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 74.0.
Forecast for FY26:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 97.66.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 19.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 62.0.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
QOR QORIA LIMITED
Software & Services Overnight Price: $0.40
Wilsons rates ((QOR)) as Overweight (1)
Qoria added $21m in annual recurring revenue over the first three quarters of FY25, already surpassing FY24’s full-year result, with the strongest quarter still ahead, explains the Wilsons analyst.
The weighted pipeline rose 72% on a year earlier, supporting an upgraded FY25 annual recurring revenue forecast of $151m, up 30%.
Service margins remain high at 93%, and, as per commentary, key contract renewals in Texas, new wins in Ohio and New Zealand reinforce the company’s K12 education growth trajectory.
Wilsons raises earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by up to $8m across FY2527, with FY25 margin forecast at 13.8%.
The target price is cut to $0.66 from $0.69 after reducing the valuation multiple. Wilsons expects further upgrades as the company converts its strong pipeline and accelerates product roll-out into FY26.
Overweight rating maintained.
This report was published on April 29, 2025.
Target price is $0.66 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.265
If QOR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.24.
Forecast for FY26:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALL - ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMP - AMP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GTK - GENTRACK GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LTR - LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MIN - MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: S32 - SOUTH32 LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: THL - TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED