Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 17, 2021

This story features ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALC

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALC   AZJ   BVS   CAT   CNI   CQR   EHL (3)   GNG   GPT   IPH   JBH   KMD   MND   MP1 (2)   OPY   PPS (3)   VOC  

ALC    ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.21

Bell Potter rates ((ALC)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Bell Potter has initiated coverage on Alcidion Group with a Buy rating and a price target of 28c.

Alcidion is a healthcare IT company aimed at improving patient care and operational efficiency in hospitals and healthcare systems.

The product offering includes AI-driven clinical decision support tools complete with active patient monitoring and back-end clinical workflow and patient flow.

The broker highlights sales growth has been impressive over the last 2 years, citing Australia and New Zealand as great examples.

The group's long term contracts provide a predictable largely recurring revenue base, adds Bell Potter, with upside risk in existing geographies and into new markets.

This report was published on February 11, 2021.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.07
If ALC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 105.00.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 210.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZJ    AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $4.07

Jarden rates ((AZJ)) as Move to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

Characterised by weaker performance from Coal, but better earnings from Bulk, Aurizon Holdings reported 1H21 underlying earnings (EBIT) of $454m, ahead of Jarden's ($423m) and consensus forecast of $416m.

Network earnings were boosted by Wiggins Island Rail Project (WIRP) 'catch-up' payments which are expected to contribute net $40m of 'one-off' benefits to earnings (EBIT) in FY21.

To reflect the WIRP benefits, and uplift in Bulk earnings (but lower Coal earnings with volumes down -4.2% in 1H21 to 102mt.) Jarden has upgraded its FY21 EPS forecast by around 8%.

Due to the increased contribution from the Bulk business, Jarden is forecasting FY21 underlying earnings (EBIT) of $890m, at the mid-point of management's guidance range of $870m – $910m.

With the share price lower and concerns about the earnings outlook removed, Jarden sees near-term value and has raised its rating to Overweight from Neutral, with its target price increasing to $4.30 from $4.15.

This report was first issued February 15, 2021.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $0.23
If AZJ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 17.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 27.50 cents and EPS of 27.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of 1.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 27.60 cents and EPS of 27.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of 8.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BVS    BRAVURA SOLUTIONS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $2.88

Goldman Sachs rates ((BVS)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs has incorporated Bravura Solutions' acquisition of Delta Financial Systems in its model. While the sales pipeline remains strong, Goldman Sachs believes Bravura will likely continue to be impacted by covid, especially in the UK.

The broker takes Bravura Solutions to be well-positioned due to its strong market position in existing offerings and a high degree of recurring revenues along with an emerging microservices ecosystem strategy that should increase the company's scope and velocity of sales.

Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating with the target falling to $4.20 from $4.50.

This report was published on February 4, 2021.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $1.32
If BVS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.00.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAT    CATAPULT GROUP INTERNATIONAL LTD

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $1.88

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CAT)) as Buy (1) –

Catapult Group International will be releasing its first-half results on 24 February. Also to note is the group intends to change its reporting date to a March year-end and change its reporting currency to USD from AUD.

Canaccord Genuity deems these changes to be sound given more than 70% of Catapult's new sales/renewals are generated between May-August and more than 70% of its revenue is derived in USD.

Over the last six months, as opposed to a stellar rally in stocks that are exposed to a vaccine-led recovery, the group has lagged given the lack of immediate catalysts coupled with enterprise sales to sporting organisations considered late-cycle.

While Catapult has not issued any revenue or operating income guidance, the group expects to be cash-flow positive in FY21.

Buy rating with a target price of $2.45.

This report was published on February 4, 2021.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $1.88 Difference: $0.57
If CAT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 41.59.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 52.08.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNI    CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $2.37

Goldman Sachs rates ((CNI)) as Neutral (3) –

Centuria Capital Group reported operating earnings per share of 6.2c, slightly ahead of Goldman Sachs' estimate. The group has upgraded its FY21 distribution guidance to 10c, 11% above the broker's forecast while keeping earnings guidance intact.

Funds management and co-investment income were slightly below the broker 's estimates, but were more than offset by lower corporate expenses, net interest expense and lower tax.

Goldman Sachs considers the group well positioned due to a smaller earnings base with the ability to scale and a growing recurring income stream.

Neutral rating with the target rising to $2.59 from $2.52.

This report was published on February 10, 2021.

Target price is $2.59 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $0.22
If CNI meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting upside of 16.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.6, implying annual growth of 168.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.7, implying annual growth of 0.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQR    CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.80

Jarden rates ((CQR)) as Overweight (2) –

Based on upgraded OEPS and DPU guidance by Charter Hall Retail REIT, Jarden believes the company appears well positioned to benefit from non-discretionary nature and convenience-focused centres in metro areas outperforming traditional retailing by around 50bps.

Upgraded dividend guidance implies 6.9% dividend yield (12-months forward), one of the highest in the sector.

While the 1H21 is still showing the significant dilution from last year's equity raising and the impact from covid, Jarden notes the REIT has used its balance sheet to add more convenience and Long WALE assets ($237m of Long WALE acquisitions in 1H21), further diversifying and strengthening its portfolio.

The key for outperformance, in Jarden’s view, is ongoing evidence the REIT can continue to find attractive (and accretive) acquisitions in a competitive market.

The Overweight recommendation remains unchanged, the target price increases to $4.20 from $4.10.

This report was first issue on February 15, 2021.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.4
If CQR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting downside of -2.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.40 cents and EPS of 27.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.8, implying annual growth of 183.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 28.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.7, implying annual growth of 3.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EHL    EMECO HOLDINGS LTD

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $1.16

Bell Potter rates ((EHL)) as Buy (1) –

Emeco Holdings reported solid first-half earnings at the top end of guidance and slightly above estimates. Operating income fell -3.5% over last year but remained above Bell Potter's forecast.

The declines in the eastern region largely were offset by strong growth in the western region and Pit N Portal.

Bell Potter expects earnings to recover in the eastern region with new projects commencing in the last quarter. Rental segment is expected to remain mostly flat in the second half before returning to growth in FY22. 

Bell Potter retains its Buy rating with a target of $1.58.

 This report was published on February 11, 2021.

Target price is $1.58 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.42
If EHL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.06.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.95.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Goldman Sachs rates ((EHL)) as Buy (1) –

Emeco Holdings' first half results were at the top end of guidance with coal headwinds offset by strong contributions from metals and a full Pit N Portal contribution.

Goldman Sachs expects coal fundamentals to improve over 2021 that will, in turn, put the spotlight on Emeco's under-appreciated diversification efforts and strong cash profile.

Buy rating with the target price rising to $1.31 from $1.20 on the back of increased confidence in recovering coal activity.

This report was published on February 9, 2021.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.14
If EHL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.55.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 14.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.64.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((EHL)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Emeco Holdings’ first-half result was broadly in line with Moelis's forecast with strong cashflow despite debt servicing and capex. The operating income was at the upper end of its guidance range and broadly in line with the broker's estimates.

Emeco has guided to flat earnings for its rental division going into the second half mostly on challenging coal conditions. The company expects growth for Pit N Portal although refrained from providing definite guidance.

In FY22, growth is likely to be driven by assets in rental being redeployed along with the conversion of single shift projects into a double shift in the Western region and east coast expansion of retail workshop services.

Moelis upgrades its rating to Buy from Hold with the target rising to $1.497 from $1.09.

This report was published on February 10, 2021.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.337
If EHL meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.64.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 13.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.35.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNG    GR ENGINEERING SERVICES LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $1.32

Bell Potter rates ((GNG)) as Buy (1) –

GR Engineering Services secured a significant contract with the company receiving a $57.2m letter of intent from Pantoro ((PNR)) for its Norseman Gold Project. The company is set to start engineering works and commence ordering long-lead items.

Bell Potter notes the company is highly leveraged to an increase in Australian mining investment with a strong position in gold processing plants. The broker's FY21 revenue forecast of $354.2m remains within the company's guidance range.

Buy rating with a target price of $1.45.

This report was published on February 11, 2021.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.13
If GNG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 11.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.48.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.15.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GPT    GPT GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $4.37

Jarden rates ((GPT)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden believes GPT Group’s FY20 operating earnings (EBITDA) of $679.1m highlights potential for a meaningful FFO/DPU recovery in FY21 and beyond.

While Jarden thinks downside risk is limited, with GPT trading at a -25% discount to Net Tangible Assets (NTA) and underpinned by a 5% buy-back, the broker thinks investors may continue to play themes (Retail recovery, Fund Management, Industrial) more directly elsewhere.

In light of the current earnings recovery, the broker has upgraded its forecasts and believes risk remains on the upside.

Given the current valuation and its forecast 12-month forward dividend yield of 6.4%, Jarden believes it makes sense to start a buy-back, but questions whether GPT will see a slowdown in Industrial revaluations to offset pressure on Office and Retail values.

The Neutral recommendation remains unchanged, with the target price increased to $4.90 from $4.80.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.37 Difference: $0.53
If GPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.64, suggesting upside of 6.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 26.70 cents and EPS of 33.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 27.90 cents and EPS of 34.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.7, implying annual growth of 5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPH    IPH LIMITED

Legal – Overnight Price: $6.11

Goldman Sachs rates ((IPH)) as Buy (1) –

IPH will report its result on 18 February. Goldman Sachs updates estimates for fx looking at the recent AUD appreciation which reduces the earnings forecast by -1%.

The broker likes IPH for its high market shares in the relatively stable Australia, New Zealand and Singapore markets along with exposure to the high growth Southeast Asian and China markets.

The Buy rating is unchanged and the target price decreases to $8.60 from $8.90.

This report was published on February 10, 2021.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $6.11 Difference: $2.49
If IPH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.97.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH    JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $51.59

Jarden rates ((JBH)) as Underweight (2) –

Following JB Hi-Fi’s 1H21 result, which was in line with its pre-announcement in January, Jarden has lifted its EPS forecasts 1-2% to reflect stronger margins, while its valuation has fallen -2% to reflect a normalisation in 2H21 working capital.

The broker notes that while January started well, trading continues to be impacted by stock shortages.

The Good Guys (TGG) was the stand-out with gross margin up around 167bp year on year, and management noted covid saw the company lift medium term earnings expectations as a result of stronger traffic and adoption of expanded ranging.

Jarden has reduced its JB Hi-Fi Australian gross margin forecast to reflect the impact of increased discounting and product mix in 2021, but lifted TGG's to reflect management's confidence in the medium term opportunity.

The broker believes capital management at the FY21 result is likely via an off-market buyback, or via a permanent increase in the dividend payout ratio which it expects to be at 75% going forward.

Underweight recommendation remains intact, but price target drops to $50 from $51.

This report was first issued February 15, 2021.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $51.59 Difference: minus $1.59 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $53.38, suggesting upside of 3.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 263.50 cents and EPS of 404.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 403.1, implying annual growth of 53.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 264.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 194.60 cents and EPS of 286.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 305.7, implying annual growth of -24.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 203.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KMD    KATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED

Sports & Recreation – Overnight Price: $1.23

Jarden rates ((KMD)) as Buy (1) –

Kathmandu Holdings has provided earnings (EBITDA) guidance (ex-IFRS16) for 1H21 of NZ$47m-$49m, 8% ahead of Jarden’s NZ$44.5m estimate.

While segment earnings disclosure has not been provided, the broker expects a better result to reflect the ongoing strength of the Rip Curl business which has more than offset travel related category weakness in the Kathmandu brand.

The broker notes Rip Curl is key to 1H group performance with a broadly even 1H/2H seasonal earnings split, in contrast with a typical 30%/70% earnings (EBITDA) split. Kathmandu is at its seasonal low in this period.

Given the underlying strength of the Kathmandu balance sheet, Jarden expects dividends to resume at the 1H21 result.

In light of Kathmandu's attractive valuation upside (+29%), dividend yield (FY22 estimate 7.6%), earnings recovery profile and conservative balance sheet, Jarden believes the company presents an appealing risk/reward, and reiterates its Buy rating, and target price of NZ$1.70.

This report was first issued February 12 2021.

Current Price is $1.23. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $1.35, suggesting upside of 9.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 5.54 cents and EPS of 8.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.45 cents and EPS of 10.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.3, implying annual growth of 35.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND    MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $12.12

Bell Potter rates ((MND)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

While impacted significantly in the second half by covid restrictions and a collapse in oil prices, Monadelphous Group's maintenance and industrial services revenues are likely to have largely stabilised by now, suggests Bell Potter.

Since the broker's downgrade to a Hold rating, Monadelphous's share price has retraced to $12.22 from circa $14-$14.50, seen as more attractive by Bell Potter given the present sector demand tailwinds. 

Hence, Bell Potter has moved to Buy from Hold with a target of $14.25.

This report was published on February 11, 2021.

Target price is $14.25 Current Price is $12.12 Difference: $2.13
If MND meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.02, suggesting downside of -0.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 55.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.8, implying annual growth of 47.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 65.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.8, implying annual growth of 14.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MP1    MEGAPORT LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $14.13

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MP1)) as Buy (1) –

To ascertain the outlook for Megaport, Canaccord Genuity looks at three key elements including reaching operating income breakeven, development of the Megaport Cloud Router and the launch of Megaport Virtual Edge.

The broker highlights all these catalysts look in good order and despite currency headwinds, growth remains impressive.

Canaccord Genuity prefers to remain at Buy with the target price falling to $16.35 from $16.50.

This report was published on February 11, 2021.

Target price is $16.35 Current Price is $14.13 Difference: $2.22
If MP1 meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.56, suggesting upside of 3.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 37.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 37.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -25.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 118.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Goldman Sachs rates ((MP1)) as Buy (1) –

Megaport’s result was broadly in line with Goldman Sachs's forecasts although some costs that were expected to be evenly distributed throughout the year were incurred in the first half.

Even so. the broker's investment thesis remains intact. The broker believes Megaport will continue to expand its product suite for customers and is of the opinion that the more services Megaport's customers adopt, the lesser will be the company's churn rate.

Buy rating with the target rising to $15.55 from $15.

This report was published on February 10, 2021.

Target price is $15.55 Current Price is $14.13 Difference: $1.42
If MP1 meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.56, suggesting upside of 3.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 88.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -25.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 282.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OPY    OPENPAY GROUP LTD

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $3.20

Shaw and Partners rates ((OPY)) as Buy (1) –

Openpay Group wants to become authorised by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) so as to support its growth ambitions.

Shaw and Partners highlights that unlike some of the group's peers in Australia and the UK, Openpay is already at the forefront of transparency, responsibility and consumer protection in the buy now pay later space.

The group does not expect any regulatory change in the UK to have an adverse impact on its financial performance. The company will report its first-half result by the end of February 2021.

The Buy rating is maintained with a target price of $5.

This report was published on February 5, 2021.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $1.8
If OPY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 29.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.00.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 23.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.68.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPS    PRAEMIUM LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $0.82

Bell Potter rates ((PPS)) as Buy (1) –

Praemium released its first combined result with Powerwrap. Bell Potter notes Praemium has a solid foundation to become one of the main independent players in its sector.

The broker highlights the integration is on track with $6m in synergies expected to be realised by FY22. Also, there was positive news on the UK business front which, after many false starts, looks on its way to profitability over the short-term.

Bell Potter believes Praemium offers a strong revenue growth outlook coupled with a cost reduction profile in an attractive sector.

The Buy rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $1.01 from $0.98.

 This report was published on February 11, 2021.

Target price is $1.01 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.19
If PPS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.56.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1.60 cents and EPS of 3.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.45.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Canaccord Genuity rates ((PPS)) as Buy (1) –

Praemium reported an underlying first-half operating income of $7.3m, a 5% increase over last year.

The result was underpinned by the recently acquired Powerwrap, notes a surprised Canaccord Genuity, which delivered operating income of $1.8m and helped offset a -$1.9m, or -22% decline in Praemium's domestic business earnings.

The broker remains positive on the company looking at the significantly improved markets. Powerwrap is delivering profitable earnings and Canaccord Genuity forecasts second-half operating income of $8.8m.

Buy rating with the target rising to $0.97 from $0.80.

This report was published on February 11, 2021.

Target price is $0.97 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.15
If PPS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.00.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.33.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Shaw and Partners rates ((PPS)) as Buy (1) –

Praemium's first-half numbers beat Shaw and Partners' forecasts at the sales, operating income and net profit levels. The broker is not pleased with the quality of the result since the post-adjustment net profit ended slightly in the red.

Going ahead, the broker has upgraded its FY21 operating income forecast by 12% due to the turnaround in Powerwrap's profitability after four years of losses and a reduction expected in operating expenses.

The Buy rating is unchanged with the target price rising to $1 from $0.80. 

This report was published on February 11, 2021.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.18
If PPS meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 273.33.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 82.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VOC    VOCUS GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.99

Goldman Sachs rates ((VOC)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) –

Goldman Sachs notes post-Vocus Group's strong share price performance since its FY20 results, the stock is now trading on a 12m consensus forecast EV/EBITDA multiple of 10x.

Thus, while constructive on its earnings outlook, the broker believes the upside is now priced in and downgrades its rating to Neutral from Buy. The target price is $4.70.

This report was published on February 8, 2021.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If VOC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.70, suggesting downside of -5.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of 9.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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