Top Ten Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

This story features NEWCREST MINING LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NCM

By Chris Shaw

With annual general meeting season underway the past week has seen a number of updates with respect to outlook commentary from companies, which have prompted changes to ratings by the eight brokers in the FNArena database. A total of eight stocks received upgrades while 20 were downgraded, total Buy ratings now standing at 43.63%.

Among those stocks upgraded was Bank of Queensland ((BOQ)), RBS Australia moving to Buy form Neutral and Citi to Neutral from Sell post the bank's full year profit result. For Citi the result offered some greater comfort with respect to bad debts, while RBS expects new management and strategy can boost revenue growth and returns in the not too distant future.

UBS upgraded Billabong ((BBG)) to Buy from Hold given the view the market stock is factoring in too pessimistic an outlook for the company's potential turnaround, as there is upside if the process can be executed successfully.

Despite a weaker 1Q result RBS has upgraded Hills Industries ((HIL)) to Buy from Hold, the broker's change in view based on the expectation the weak result will prompt a needed restructuring of the business. As well, valuation is undemanding at current levels according to RBS and the dividend yield is attractive.

Changes to foreign exchange and commodity price assumptions have generated an upgrade for Newcrest ((NCM)) to Neutral from Sell by Credit Suisse, supported by the broker increasing its price target for the stock to $30.00 from $26.00. Revised oil price assumptions saw the broker similarly upgrade Santos ((STO)), in this case to a Buy rating from Neutral previously.

Primary Health Care ((PRY)) should be a beneficiary of delays to pathology funding cuts and Deutsche has lifted earnings forecasts for the company as a result. The changes have meant an increase in price target and with the stock trading at a discount relative to peers the broker upgrades to Buy from Hold.

Among the downgrades, Stockland ((SGP)) was downgraded by two brokers during the week. Credit Suisse moved to Sell from Neutral and Deutsche to Neutral from Buy, both on the back of revised earnings guidance from management.

ARB Corporation ((ARP)) has enjoyed a share price run in recent weeks and this has been enough for Citi to downgrade to a Neutral rating from Buy on valuation grounds. Citi similarly downgraded Challenger ((CGF)) to Neutral from Buy to reflect a lack of potential positive catalysts for the stock, this following an update reiterating full year sales guidance.

Changes to commodity price assumptions by Credit Suisse have prompted the broker to downgrade a number of stocks across resource companies under coverage. In iron ore Atlas Iron ((AGO)) has been downgraded to Sell from Buy as revised earnings forecasts and some uncertainty with respect to future growth suggests limited scope for shorter-term outperformance.

Cockatoo Coal ((COK)) has also been downgraded by Credit Suisse to Neutral from Buy to reflect the possibility of a capital raising and some development risks associated with the company. Similar concerns with respect to future growth have seen Credit Suisse downgrade New Hope Coal ((NHC)) to Sell from Hold.

For Stanmore Coal ((SMR)) there is potential for the Range project to be delayed and for further funding to be required, which is enough for Credit Suisse to downgrade to Neutral from Buy. Yancoal's ((YAL)) valuation and price target have been lowered on the back of the broker's changes to commodity price estimates and this has seen rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Tigers Realm Coal ((TIG)) suffered a similar fate, the broker's rating lowered to Neutral from Buy to reflect concerns over a lack of reserves and a significant funding gap.

For both Evolution Mining ((EVN)) and PanAust ((PNA)) recent share price strength has been sufficient for Credit Suisse to downgrade to Sell from Hold ratings on valuation grounds, while Oil Search ((OSH)) has also been downgraded to Hold from Buy given Credit Suisse's changes to oil price expectations.

RBS Australia has downgraded Domino's Pizza ((DMP)) to Hold from Buy following a solid run in the stock of late, though the broker continues to view long-term fundamentals for the company as attractive. For Citi, the recent run in the James Hardie ((JHX)) share price has pushed the stock to a level seen as expensive enough to justify a downgrade to Sell from Hold. 

JP Morgan has lowered earnings forecasts for Fleetwood ((FWD)) to reflect a faster than expected decline in demand for modular buildings, the current market headwinds enough for the broker to downgrade to a Neutral rating from Outperform. 

Imdex ((IMD)) delivered a disappointing quarterly result and this prompted Deutsche Bank to lower earnings estimates and price target for the stock. With Imdex now trading in line with sector peers the broker downgrades to Hold from Buy.

Macquarie has reviewed the Australian TV sector post Ten Network's ((TEN)) profit result and the result is a downgrade to both Ten and Seven West Media ((SWM)), the former to Sell from Hold and the latter to Hold from Buy. In Macquarie's view sector pressures suggest share price outperformance is unlikely prior to any improvement in conditions.

While upside adjustments to to price targets over the week were minor the likes of Billabong, Ten Network, Atlas Iron, FKP Properties ((FKP)) and Hutchison Australia ((HTA)) all saw targets reduced by at least 10%.

ResMed ((RMD)), OceanaGold ((OGC)) and Salmat ((SLM)) all saw earnings estimates increased by more than 20%, while forecasts for Paladin Energy ((PDN)), Atlas, Ten Network, Gindalbie ((GBG)) and Brandrill ((BDR)) were all lowered by at least 20% during the week.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
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