Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 10-07-20

This story features CGN RESOURCES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CGR

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday July 6 to Friday July 10, 2020
Total Upgrades: 7
Total Downgrades: 27
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 48.71%; Hold 40.84%; Sell 10.44%

The week’s overall review of downgrades revealed seven of 27 moving to a fresh sell. The only discernible sectoral trend appeared to be in gold, with six downgrades . A number of stockbrokers have been signalling they find value is becoming increasingly hard to find after gold shares have rallied in response to an increasing gold price.

Gold miner Saracen Mineral Holdings received three downgrades of which only one moved to a Sell. Both Treasury Wine Estates and Adbri received two downgrades (incorporating one move to a Sell apiece). Adbri’s downgrade appeared more structural with the loss of a major contract with Alcoa.

Compared to prior months, target price changes were relatively mild, with the two largest downward revisions reserved for Adbri and Scentre Group, while Hub24 and Breville Group had upward revisions.

The majority of material adjustments to earnings estimates were to the downside. Four of the top five movers were mid-cap resource stocks. The largest positive change was reserved for Webjet after strengthening its balance sheet with a EUR100m convertible note offering.

Total Buy ratings for the seven brokers monitored daily remains high at 48.71% of total ratings, versus 40.84% on Neutral/Hold, and 10.44% with a Sell rating.

Upgrade

AFTERPAY LIMITED ((APT)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Afterpay is demonstrating better than expected credit quality control, points out Morgan Stanley. The company’s sales growth is accelerating and the broker notes the company is diversifying away from the fashion category via eBay.

Afterpay is expected to deliver almost 60% in revenue CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) over FY20-22 while maintaining about 2% net transaction margin.

The company is starting operations in Canada in the first quarter of FY21 along with a US in-store rollout. This is to solidify its early mover advantage by moving to an omni-channel platform, comments the broker.

Morgan Stanley thinks Afterpay may use its $800m capital raising to look for M&A options so as to enter new geographies.

Revenue forecasts for FY21-22 upgraded by circa 15%. The broker is of the opinion that Afterpay is under-owned by Australian institutional investors.

Morgan Stanley upgrades to Overweight from Equal-weight with the target price increasing to $101 from $36. Industry view: In-line.

See also APT downgrade.

CML GROUP LIMITED ((CGR)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/0/0

CML Group provided a trading update and FY20 earnings guidance.

In June, new clients and higher volumes lifted the Invoice Financing division, while client attrition and risk metrics are consistent with the pre-covid-19 era. Management expects volumes to keep growing and be assisted by reduced Government assistance for SME funding.

Uncertain SME business conditions leaves the Equipment Finance book below historical levels.

While future FY20 guidance may be impacted by provisioning, management is confident of no material future credit losses.

Morgans believes the company is well positioned to return to sustainable growth, with the key opportunity in Factoring, and the potential for acquisitions as smaller operators lack access to funding.

The rating is increased to Add from Hold. The target price is $0.40.

THE STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED ((SGR)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 4/2/1

Citi believes the outlook for domestic casinos is robust as they re-open on schedule with limited restrictions.

The broker forecasts JobKeeper will boost first half margins as wages are subsidised during the early stages of the re-opening.

Citi upgrades Star Entertainment to Buy from Neutral, envisaging more share price upside in the near term. Target is raised to $3.50 from $3.10.

THE REJECT SHOP LIMITED ((TRS)) Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Morgan Stanley assesses The Reject Shop is a leader in a fragmented market, a niche that has proved to be large and profitable in other global markets.

Still the business has been under-earning and the broker suspects a simplified strategy and new management will be the positive catalyst.

Morgan Stanley acknowledges measuring earnings growth is problematic as the starting point is either negative or very small. Hence, it is the long-term potential that is evaluated.

The broker upgrades to Overweight from Equal-weight. Target is raised to $10.00 from $2.60. Industry view: In Line.

TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED ((TWE)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/6/0

Macquarie observes the company has experienced an unprecedented second half, with wine volumes affected by the bushfires, oversupply in the US and the impact of the virus in China.

Private-label pressures are expected to continue in the short term as oversupply builds in America. However, Macquarie assesses some confidence around consumption levels is starting to return in China. The broker downgrades estimates for FY20-22.

Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform and the target lifted to $11.50 from $9.30.

See also TWE downgrade.

VOCUS GROUP LIMITED ((VOC)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/3/0

The share price has underperformed and UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral on valuation grounds. The broker expects valuation will become more compelling once FY20-21 expenditure is cycled.

However, estimates for earnings per share are lowered by -9% to reflect higher interest costs post the recent re-financing and more difficult execution against growth targets. Target is reduced to $3.60 from $3.85.

WEST AFRICAN RESOURCES LIMITED ((WAF)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Operating performance was in line in the June quarter while the cash position was better than Macquarie expected.

Commercial production at Sanbrado was declared and the broker expects progressive production growth over the next year.

Given the stronger net debt position and the rolling forward of valuation, Macquarie upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. Target is raised to $1 from $0.90.

Downgrade

ADBRI LIMITED ((ABC)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett and Downgrade to Sell from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 1/3/3

Alcoa will not be renewing its lime supply contract with Adbri, set to expire on June 30, 2021.

Ord Minnett notes the loss from this will be -70m in revenue or about 40% of the lime business. Earnings forecasts have been lowered by -19% by FY22.

The broker sees risk of more volume loss, price resets and import threats and has reduced its rating to Hold from Accumulate with the target price reducing to $2.70 from $3.

UBS downgrades to Sell from Buy and lowers the target to $2.00 from $2.82

 The broker had expected that the lime division would be stable but the loss of the Alcoa contract has now affected this view.

The broker is concerned about the company's inability to renegotiate the contract and price & quality are likely to have played a part.

However, UBS points out Adbri has a dominant position in lime and this may have been a contributing factor to Alcoa seeking a new source.

AGL ENERGY LIMITED ((AGL)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/4/3

Macquarie assesses power pricing is a challenge for AGL Energy as falling fuel costs and weak demand have led to a drop in earnings.

There is also the issue of the Alcoa contract which is nearing expiry. The broker suggests any renewal is likely to reflect the soft forward market.

Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral, as the broker says the decay in electricity pricing as well as expiry of historical gas contracts cannot be ignored. Target is raised to $15.91 from $15.87.

AFTERPAY LIMITED ((APT)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/3/1

The pandemic has accelerated Afterpay’s growth with sales momentum showing up through a jump of 127% in the June quarter, driven by scaling of the business in three markets.

Macquarie expects strong subscriber growth to underpin sales growth. The company’s ability to scale quickly gives it a competitive advantage, highlights the broker.

There is uncertainty in forecasting an emerging model, admits the broker and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform with the target price increasing to $70 from $36. This reflects increased long term gross merchandise value (GMV) assumptions and the capital raising.

See also APT upgrade.

ASX LIMITED ((ASX)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 0/0/6

UBS notes heightened market volatility has benefited ASX in two main areas in the second half, cash equity turnover and capital raisings.

Trends elsewhere have been softer, with reduced activity across futures volumes and equity derivatives.

Given delays to the CHESS replacement, now slated for April 2022, project expenditure remains elevated over the near term.

With a more moderate medium-term growth outlook, UBS downgrades to Sell from Neutral. Target is raised to $75.00 from $68.50.

ALUMINA LIMITED ((AWC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Following a review of transfer pricing arrangements over a 20-year period, the Australian Taxation Office has claimed additional tax plus interest from the AWAC joint venture.

In accordance with dispute resolution practices, 50% of the additional tax of $214m will be paid out of cash flow in the September quarter. No further payment will be made until final resolution of the matter.

Citi revises 2020/21 earnings estimates down by -4% to reflect higher Australian dollar forecasts. Distribution estimates are reduced as well.

Alumina Ltd valuation is reduced. The broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy and lowers the target to $1.60 from $1.80.

BHP GROUP ((BHP)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 6/1/0

Credit Suisse believes the recent appreciation in the share price means the risk/reward is balanced and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform.

The broker still regards the balance sheet as robust and envisages little risk to dividends.

However, yields are considered no longer attractive enough to serve as a trigger to push the stock higher. Target is reduced to $37 from $39.

COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED ((CCL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/6/0

Credit Suisse observes early signs consumers are seeking value in the beverage category. Discounted water volumes have started to grow again.

The broker is also concerned about the short-term impact of the renewed lockdown in Victoria.

Until the uncertainty around the operating performance clears, Credit Suisse downgrades to Neutral from Outperform.

Target is lowered to $9.00 from $10.00.

CROWN RESORTS LIMITED ((CWN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Citi believes the outlook for domestic casinos is robust as they re-open on schedule with limited restrictions.

The broker forecasts JobKeeper will boost first half margins as wages are subsidised during the early stages of the re-opening.

Crown Resorts is downgraded to Neutral from Buy because of relative valuation and the risk of further delays in the re-opening of Melbourne. Target is raised to $10.00 from $8.20.

DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED ((DMP)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie and Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/5/2

Analysts at Macquarie observe consumer discretionary stocks have significantly outperformed in Australia as trading restrictions have seen consumer spending on services switch to goods.

Meanwhile, strong fiscal stimulus programs and incentives to retain employees will gradually unwind leaving current valuations vulnerable to a derating, the analysts believe.

They have downgraded Domino's Pizza to Neutral from Outperform. Target $66.10, unchanged.

Even though Domino’s Pizza Enterprises continues to enjoy strong performance drivers, Ord Minnett is of the opinion the strong share price performance (an increase of 34% versus the ASX100 falling by -9.7% since January 1) reduces its valuation support.

Earnings forecasts for FY20-21 have been upgraded by 4% and 7% on account of higher same-store sales growth and higher net store numbers. The broker highlights the company is performing well in Australia and New Zealand.

Ord Minnett downgrades its rating to Hold from Accumulate with the target price increasing to $70 from $57.50.

EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/3/3

Citi increases gold estimates, expecting prices will outperform consensus forecasts. Gold stocks are expected to grind higher although value is now harder to find.

The broker downgrades Evolution Mining to Sell from Neutral on a relative basis and considers the re-rating overdone. Target is raised to $5.60 from $5.20.

GOODMAN GROUP ((GMG)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Citi transfers to another analyst and resumes coverage of Goodman Group with a downgrade to Neutral from Buy.

Despite a strong growth outlook the broker assesses the current price is 70% above historical averages and this limits the upside over the next 12 months.

The pandemic has highlighted the need for more warehouse/logistics space and this is expected to drive development activity. Margins remain at elevated levels.

Investment earnings have lagged in recent years but an improved portfolio and lower disposal activity going forward should mean earnings growth increases to around 11% per annum, the broker assesses. Target is reduced to $16.50 from $18.50.

JB HI-FI LIMITED ((JBH)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/5/1

Analysts at Macquarie observe consumer discretionary stocks have significantly outperformed in Australia as trading restrictions have seen consumer spending on services switch to goods.

Meanwhile, strong fiscal stimulus programs and incentives to retain employees will gradually unwind leaving current valuations vulnerable to a derating, the analysts believe.

They have downgraded JB Hifi to Neutral from Outperform. Target $41, unchanged.

LENDLEASE GROUP ((LLC)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Ord Minnett reduces construction EBITDA forecasts in aggregate by -$200m for FY21 and FY22. This assumes productivity has not returned to pre-pandemic levels for the US business.

The broker downgrades to Hold from Buy and lowers the target to $13.50 from $14.00.

The business is well-positioned from a capital perspective, in the broker's view, having raised equity and sold $500m in settlement revenue at One Sydney Harbour development as well as settling the sale of 25% of the project after June 30.

MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED ((MFG)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 0/6/1

Citi has downgraded to Neutral from Buy, while remaining attracted to Magellan Financial's positive leverage to equity markets, its solid investment performance on top of strong net cash generation, but it's time for a pause in the share price rally, apparently.

The analysts have taken the opportunity to lift earnings estimates (noticeably) and this has pushed up the price target to $66 from $40. The new target includes a 10% valuation premium for the potential growth into retirement income, the analysts explain.

NEWCREST MINING LIMITED ((NCM)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 2/4/1

Citi increases gold estimates, expecting prices will outperform consensus forecasts. Gold stocks are expected to grind higher although value is now harder to find.

Newcrest Mining is downgraded to Neutral from Buy because of recent appreciation. According to Citi, further upside rests with the bellwether stock getting its historical premium back sooner via visibility on Red Chris. Target is raised to $37 from $35.

PEET & COMPANY LIMITED ((PPC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/1/0

FY20 operating earnings are expected to be in the range of $14-16m and the company will also recognise a -$45m provision because of a write-down of land values related to assets it is looking to divest.

The delay in capital expenditure related to new projects pushes out the earnings recovery, Macquarie asserts, and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target is lowered to $0.95 from $1.04.

PERSEUS MINING LIMITED ((PRU)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 0/3/0

Citi increases gold estimates, expecting prices will outperform consensus forecasts. Gold stocks are expected to grind higher although value is now harder to find.

Citi downgrades Perseus Mining to Neutral from Buy after a 30% gain in the share price. Targets is raised to $1.60 from $1.40.

SARACEN MINERAL HOLDINGS LIMITED ((SAR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi and Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie and Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 0/4/1

Citi increases gold estimates, expecting prices will outperform consensus forecasts. Gold stocks are expected to grind higher although value is now harder to find.

Citi has downgraded Saracen Mineral Holdings to Neutral. Target is raised to $6.10 from $5.30.

Gold production and sales were short of Macquarie's estimates in the June quarter. Yet, growing confidence in the continuity of operations in respect of the pandemic impact is observed, given reversion to the previous operating strategy.

Macquarie downgrades to Underperform from Neutral because of recent strength in the share price. Target is steady at $5.40.

UBS envisages a number of upcoming positive catalysts such as an update at Carosue Dam/Thunderbox and a comprehensive update on the the Super Pit opportunity.

The June quarter production result has driven a -10% downgrade to underlying net profit forecasts for FY20 and the broker also trims production forecasts at the Super Pit which are now considered too optimistic.

UBS notes Saracen Mineral Holdings is no longer trading at a material discount to peers and downgrades to Neutral from Buy. Target is raised to $6.30 from $5.60.

SIMS LIMITED ((SGM)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Credit Suisse reviews the earnings drivers and revises down earnings forecasts for the second half of FY20.

A more conservative outlook is also adopted for FY21/22.

The broker's forecasts are based on weakness in scrap prices and soft US peer results.

The pricing and volume backdrop needs to turn around to signal a buying opportunity.

Hence, Credit Suisse downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target is reduced to $7.95 from $9.10.

TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED ((TWE)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS and Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/6/0

FY20 earnings (EBITS) guidance of $530-540m is below expectations and raises several questions for UBS.

These include whether earnings in the Americas will fully recover. The broker envisages several areas of risk, given accelerating market share loss and uncertainty around industry oversupply. Margins also remain under pressure.

With few upside catalysts for the short term and plenty of uncertainty, UBS downgrades to Neutral from Buy. Target is reduced to $11.80 from $14.80.

FY20 EBITS guidance is well below Ord Minnett's forecasts. The broker reduces estimates by -15% for FY20 and by -26% for FY21.

The broker observes the wine oversupply in the US has weighed while the recovery in the Americas, exposed to pandemic restrictions, is likely to be slow, creating a risk for the first half of FY21.

The poor 2020 vintage in Australia also reduces future potential revenue. Rating is downgraded to Lighten from Hold. Target is reduced to $10 from $11.

See also TWE upgrade.

WESFARMERS LIMITED ((WES)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/5/1

Analysts at Macquarie observe consumer discretionary stocks have significantly outperformed in Australia as trading restrictions have seen consumer spending on services switch to goods.

Meanwhile, strong fiscal stimulus programs and incentives to retain employees will gradually unwind leaving current valuations vulnerable to a derating, the analysts believe.

They have downgraded Wesfarmers to Neutral from Outperform. Target $44.50, unchanged.

WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED ((WTC)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Ord Minnett suspects FY21 consensus estimates are too high. The broker finds the range of forecasts surprising for a stock that is leveraged to existing customer growth and has a higher proportion of recurring revenue.

A recovery in top-line momentum or margin improvement is not anticipated until FY22 and, hence, the broker suspects the stock is exposed to a downside correction.

Rating is downgraded to Lighten from Hold and the target raised to $19.60 from $19.00.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

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