Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 08, 2023

This story features AUSTIN ENGINEERING LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ANG

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ANG   ARX   BWX   CCP   CIA   CSL   CXL   CXO   DRR   FCL (2)   FMG   FZO (2)   HLA   IGO   LYC   MMM (2)   NTO   OBL   RSG   SDR   TPW   TSI  

ANG    AUSTIN ENGINEERING LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.35

Shaw and Partners rates ((ANG)) as Buy (1) –

Orders from multiple customers totaling 210 truck trays have added security to Austin Engineering's second half revenue outlook according to Shaw and Partners. The company delivered a strong trading update on its FY23, having contracted in excess of its budgeted $250m revenue. 

Shaw and Partners highlights the company is anticipating ongoing benefits from strong mining equipment demand over the next eighteen months, but warns Austin Engineering is exposed to recent volatility in commodity pricing. 

The Buy rating and target price of $0.45 are retained.

This report was published on January 31, 2023.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.1
If ANG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.90 cents and EPS of 4.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.61.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.10 cents and EPS of 5.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.73.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARX    AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $1.18

Wilsons rates ((ARX)) as Overweight (1) –

Following an in-line 3Q trading update (March year end) by Aroa Biosurgery, Wilsons praises ongoing and consistent sales growth.

Management confirmed an expectation for earnings (EBITDA) breakeven in FY23.

Market expectations for sales may be exceeded, predicts the broker, with near-term revenues from Symphony beginning from the 1H of FY24, 

The broker makes only minor forecasts changes and retains its $1.73 target and Overweight rating.

Wilsons points out the increasing market reach of Myriad Matrix (for soft tissue repair and complex wounds), with the company adding a further five sales representatives in the US as well as obtaining regulatory approval in Brazil.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $1.73 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.555
If ARX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BWX    BWX LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $0.25

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BWX)) as Hold (3) –

As part of its 2Q results announcement, BWX has lowered its FY23 earnings (EBITDA) and revenue guidance by -55% and -17%, respectively.

Revenue for the 2Q was $38m. The broker believes there was an earnings (EBITDA) loss for the 1H, though a 2H turnaround in earnings is expected from a cost-out program and the normalisation of the impact from investment buys (channel stuffing).

The company's balance sheet remains the analyst's primary concern though this may be allieviated by the sale of Nourished Life and Flora & Fauna. It's thought issues will have to be addressed soon as a waiver of covenants only applies until the end of February.

Canaccord Genuity lowers its target to 24c from 94c. Hold.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If BWX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.41.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 125.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCP    CREDIT CORP GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $21.31

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CCP)) as Hold (3) –

In a first glance at 1H results for Credit Corp, Canaccord Genuity notes particularly strong lending volumes. An interim dividend of 23cps was declared.

Management also raised FY23 cash investment guidance while retaining guidance for both earnings and profit. Net lending of $140-150m was a huge jump on prior guidance for $110m, notes the analyst.

Revenue was in line with the broker's forecast for the 1H, while headline profit of $321.8m was materially below expectation.

The Hold rating and $23.10 target are unchanged.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $23.10 Current Price is $21.31 Difference: $1.79
If CCP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.80, suggesting upside of 21.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 79.00 cents and EPS of 147.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 136.1, implying annual growth of -8.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 89.00 cents and EPS of 165.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 146.7, implying annual growth of 7.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIA    CHAMPION IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $7.28

Goldman Sachs rates ((CIA)) as Buy (1) –

The December quarter EBITDA results for Champion Iron came in better than expected, above both Goldman Sachs and consensus by an order of 20%.

One-off events impacted production over the period which was offset by higher iron ore prices.

Looking ahead the analyst views the ramp up of the Phase 2 expansion Bloom Lake to full capacity to increase the high grade iron ore two-fold and production to 15Mtpa from 7.5Mt.

Goldman Sachs' EPS forecasts are raised 17% for FY23 and left unchanged for FY24.

The target is lowered to $8.20 from $8.40 and the Buy rating is retained.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $7.28 Difference: $0.92
If CIA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.40 cents and EPS of 55.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.19.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.69 cents and EPS of 82.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.80.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL    CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $308.07

Goldman Sachs rates ((CSL)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs assesses the impact of the Vifor acquisition on CSL, alongside an update on the forecasts for Behring and Sequirus.

The analyst views the future pipeline of products as the "richest" compared to any recent period.

On balance, revenue estimates are raised by 2% for FY23 and up to 6% for FY25, and FY23 earnings of $2,861m, which is between 2%-6% above the management's guidance.

A Neutral rating is retained and the target raised to $304 from $291.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $304.00 Current Price is $308.07 Difference: minus $4.07 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $328.20, suggesting upside of 6.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 344.88 cents and EPS of 727.27 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 778.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 365.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 458.87 cents and EPS of 968.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 989.6, implying annual growth of 27.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 470.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CXL    CALIX LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $5.44

Shaw and Partners rates ((CXL)) as Buy (1) –

The Solar Methanol project, of which Calix is a consortium member, has won funding for the production of sustainable fuels from captured carbon emissions.  While Calix won't directly benefit from the grant, Shaw and Partners notes there is potential for it to benefit from future sales of the carbon captured through the project.

The project offers potential to leverage Australia's renewable energy resources to assist in the decarbonisation of German industry. Shaw and Partners expects a series of catalysts underpinning the project can benefit Calix's valuation over time. 

The Buy rating and target price of $6.00 are retained.

This report was published on January 31, 2023.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.44 Difference: $0.56
If CXL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 61.12.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 80.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CXO    CORE LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $1.05

Goldman Sachs rates ((CXO)) as Sell (5) –

Core Lithium reported the 2Q23 trading update with $125m in cash on hand coming in lower than Goldman Sachs' forecast of $164m and capex $7m higher at $51m.

The DMS plant is due for completion in the March quarter of 2023 and spodumene production is on schedule during the 1H2023.

The broker's EPS forecasts are lowered -9% due to changes in the production ramp up due to recent wet weather impacts with the FY24 forecasts unchanged.

A Sell rating and $0.95 target are unchanged.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: minus $0.105 (current price is over target).
If CXO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.51.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.77.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRR    DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $4.92

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DRR)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

A small reduction in iron ore pricing for lump and fines products at BHP Group's Mining Area C resulted in lower royalty revenues for Deterra Royalties in 2Q, explains Canaccord Genuity.

The broker's target falls to $5.10 from $5.70 after the broker factors in the 2Q result and lowers its FY23 iron ore price forecast by -11% to US$103/t. 

Canaccord's long-term iron ore price forecast remains at US$75/t.

Given a lowering of consensus iron ore price expectations and a rally in Deterra shares of 20% over the last three months, the broker's rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: $0.18
If DRR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting upside of 0.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.3, implying annual growth of -10.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.7, implying annual growth of -5.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FCL    FINEOS CORPORATION HOLDINGS PLC

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $2.23

Goldman Sachs rates ((FCL)) as Buy (1) –

Fineos Corp reported a mixed 2Q23 trading update with subscription revenues up 18% over the previous quarter, offset by "lumpy" customer payments, resulting in a -18% decline in the cash receipts, highlights Goldman Sachs.

The broker considers that the subscription revenue is meeting FY23 expectations of 23% and management guidance of 20% growth, which leads to a positive outlook for the company, alongside the first ANZ customer transitioning to QSuper, the cloud platform.

A Buy rating and a $2.40 target price.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.17
If FCL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of minus 0.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3716.67.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of minus 0.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7433.33.

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Shaw and Partners rates ((FCL)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners described Fineos Corp's second quarter update as in line with expectations, but highlighted an apparent increase in cash burn from the company. Cash receipts for the quarter declined -18% year-on-year, impacting on cash flow. 

Fineos Corp has pointed out that a majority of its subscription revenue falls in the third quarter, skewing cash receipts. Accordingly, the broker expects cash receipts in the second half could amount to EUR85m, compared to EUR$62.8m in the first half. 

More positively, subscriptions in the second quarter grew 19% year-on-year. The Buy rating and target price of $3.40 are retained.

This report was published on January 31, 2023.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $1.17
If FCL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 33.51.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 113.43.

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG    FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $22.05

Goldman Sachs rates ((FMG)) as Sell (5) –

Fortescue Metals reported better than expected iron ore production and shipments over the December 2022 quarter, according to Goldman Sachs.

The company also registered lower unit costs over the period and better prices.

Management guidance for FY23 remains unchanged.

The broker's EPS forecasts are adjusted by a minor 1% for FY23 and -1% for FY24, due to a tweaking of production costs.

A Sell rating is retained and the target price is raised to $13.60 from $13.40.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $22.05 Difference: minus $8.45 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.69, suggesting downside of -24.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 151.52 cents and EPS of 217.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 249.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 202.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 54.83 cents and EPS of 98.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 216.0, implying annual growth of -13.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 159.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FZO    FAMILY ZONE CYBER SAFETY LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $0.24

Shaw and Partners rates ((FZO)) as Buy (1) –

Following its second quarter, Family Zone Cyber Safety has added a reported $5.0m to its annual recurring revenue, now $85.0m, ahead of Shaw and Partners' expected $4.5m.

The broker described the result as strong given the quarter is typically the slowest sales period for the company. 

Despite the quarterly update, Shaw and Partners' full year forecasts are largely retained but the broker does see upside risk stemming from potential further pipeline growth. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.57 from $0.68.

This report was published on January 31, 2023.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.33
If FZO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 137% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 30.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((FZO)) as Overweight (1) –

Family Zone Cyber Safety's December-quarter results fell shy of Wilson's forecast, thanks to a -$2m currency impost.

But the broker finds plenty to like, with annual reccurring revenue, average revenue per student and margins all on the rise. The broker also appreciates the compay's strong sales pipeline and 50% conversion rate.

Family Zone closed the quarter with $6.2m in cash and -$10.5m in undrawn convertible funding and management estimates it has two quarters of cash available (including undrawn debt). The broker doubts the company will be cash-flow positive by the June half, albeit feasible.

Overweight rating and 53c target price retained.

This report was published on January 30, 2023.

Target price is $0.53 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.29
If FZO meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 121% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.15.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.14.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLA    HEALTHIA LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $1.43

Shaw and Partners rates ((HLA)) as Buy (1) –

Healthia has delivered a strong beat to Shaw and Partners' underlying earnings expectations in its first half, anticipating it will report between $17.7-18.3m for the period driven by stronger than expected sales. 

The broker remains conservative but has upgraded its second half earnings estimate to $20.5m, and the company has reiterated its full year guidance for underlying earnings exceeding $40m. While Shaw and Partners found this target risky midway through the first half, it now finds it well within reach. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.63 from $2.50.

This report was published on January 31, 2023.

Target price is $2.63 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $1.2
If HLA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.90 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.30.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 10.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.12.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $14.45

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IGO)) as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) –

December quarter production results for lithium beat Canaccord Genuity's forecasts at Greenbushes and Kwinana though nickel production at Nova and Forrestania were misses.

Cost guidance at Nova and Forrestania was increased by 25% and 22%, respectively.

The broker's FY23-25 earnings (EBITDA) estimates fall by -18%, -7% and -17%, respectively, and the target eases to $13.50 from $13.75.

The rating for IGO is downgraded to Sell from Hold as its assets (apart from Greenbushes) are either in structural decline (Nova and Forrestania) or unproven (Kwinana and Cosmos), according to the analysts.

Buy-rated Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)) is preferred by Canaccord for its cash generation, growth profile and clarity of reporting.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $14.45 Difference: minus $0.95 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $15.70, suggesting upside of 8.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 194.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 195.3, implying annual growth of 346.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 138.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 213.0, implying annual growth of 9.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LYC    LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $9.17

Goldman Sachs rates ((LYC)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs liked the 2Q23 results for Lynas Rare Earths following better than expeccted rare earth sales and generated revenues of $233m, up 42% on the previous quarter and in excess of the broker's $216m forecast.

The analyst adjusts earnings forecasts by 28% for FY23 and 26% for FY24 due to lower costs and better non-NdPr prices.

The target is raised to $9.10 from $8.00 and a Neutral rating is retained.

Goldman Sachs prefers Iluka Resources ((ILU)) on valuation grounds.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $7.45 Current Price is $9.17 Difference: minus $1.72 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.42, suggesting downside of -8.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.6, implying annual growth of -25.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.5, implying annual growth of 58.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MMM    MARLEY SPOON AG

Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $0.21

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MMM)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Marley Spoon AG placed a priority on profits over revenue during the 4Q by materially reducing spending on marketing. Despite this, the 32% contribution margin was a record due to both operational improvements and price rises from prior periods.

The 4Q adjusted earnings (EBITDA) result was also a record and exceeded management's guidance range.

For 2023, the company has guided to single digit net revenue growth, contribution margins in the range of 30-32% and positive operating earnings for the financial year and beyond.

While Europe is weighing on group performance, Canaccord sees early indications of improvement.

The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged though the target falls to 40c from 70c after the analyst factors in a recent capital raise and lowers forecasts for medium-term growth.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.19
If MMM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.65.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 46.26.

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((MMM)) as No Rating (-1) –

Due to additional funds secured by Marley Spoon AG in its recent capital raising, Wilsons reduces its discount applied to its fundamental valuation. An additional raising of EUR$20m is expected in the 2H of 2023.

Sales for the 4Q were a -2% miss against the broker's forecast with weaker subscriber growth party offset by stronger average order value.

The US experienced price increases and a strong operating performance, according to the analyst, which was partly offset by more challenging conditions in Australia and Europe. 

Management expects single digit net revenue growth in 2023 versus 2022 (in constant currency terms). The analyst is encouraged by 2023 guidance for a positive full year of operating earnings (EBITDA).

The Overweight rating and 37c target are unchanged.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.16
If MMM meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NTO    NITRO SOFTWARE LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $2.15

Wilsons rates ((NTO)) as Overweight (1) –

Nitro Software's December-quarter update hit the middle of guidance and met Wilsons' forecasts.

Annual recurring revenue rose 7% on the September quarter, Connective growing ARR at 34% year on year, and adding 120 new logos. Subscription revenue rose 50% in the year to date, observes the broker, and now constitutes 76% of total revenue.

Cash rose 39% in the year to date and net cash in operations settled at -$2m, compared with -$3.9m in the September quarter (even better on an underlying basis at -$400,000, and after removing one-offs associated with the takeover, takes it close to positive, observes Wilsons).

Management estimates the company has 14 quarters of funding available. The broker's Overweight rating and $1.67 price target are under review.

This report was published on January 30, 2023.

Target price is $1.67 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If NTO meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OBL    OMNI BRIDGEWAY LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $3.69

Goldman Sachs rates ((OBL)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs continues to have an upbeat view of the longer term prospects for Omni Bridgeway post the 2Q23 Investment Portfolio update.

The analyst estimates the Portfolio Value grew 5% on the quarter and 29% compared to the previous year, noting the robust $2.7bn in new investments were offset by some revisions to the existing portfolio alongside a existing impairment from the Westgem case.

The $5.65 target and Buy rating are retained, on the expectation Omni Bridgeway can produce more "consistent earnings" with a FUM target of $2.5bn by FY25.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $1.96
If OBL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.23.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 97.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.80.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RSG    RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.27

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RSG)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity raises its rating for Resolute Mining to Buy from Speculative Buy on an improving operational outlook and an increasingly de-risked balance sheet, and leaves its 60c target unchanged.

This rating change follows Resolute's 4Q production report which showed a slight beat on gold production versus the forecasts of consensus and the broker.

During the quarter, the company generated free cash flow of US$8m, executed a US$106m capital raise and paid down US$105m of debt. This was a significant degearing, explains the analyst, with net debt falling by around -80%.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.335
If RSG meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 126% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.12.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.36.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDR    SITEMINDER LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $4.05

Wilsons rates ((SDR)) as Overweight (1) –

A 2Q update by SiteMinder illustrated to Wilsons ongoing revenue momentum.

The broker was surprised by a -$10m cost-out across back office and development functions. According to the analyst, the cost saving has potential to accelerate the date for free cash flow breakeven to the 4Q of 2024 or before.

The broker's target rises to $4.31 from $4.07 on the cost-out, incremental operating leverage from recent price increases and exposure to the ongoing travel recovery, boosted by the return of China post lockdown.

The Overweight rating is maintained.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $4.31 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $0.26
If SDR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 29.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 28.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -15.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 54.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPW    TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $5.34

Goldman Sachs rates ((TPW)) as Buy (1) –

Temple & Webster is added to the Goldman Sachs conviction list and the broker considers the company can generate 22% annual EBITDA growth over the next 10-years from increased market share and online presence.

The analyst is looking to the February 23 1H23 results for further confirmation of a steadying of ship for earnings and the outlook.

The Buy rating is maintained, the target is $7.50.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $5.34 Difference: $2.16
If TPW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.37, suggesting upside of 0.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 66.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.3, implying annual growth of -36.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 84.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 41.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 60.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TSI    TOP SHELF INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $1.10

Wilsons rates ((TSI)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) –

Wilsons highlights, from 2Q results, Top Shelf International's stable and attractive gross margin, which should expand via scale and mix benefits in the medium term.

A slower growth trajectory for Branded sales is balanced against ongoing brand and business investment, in the broker's view.

While there are prospects for alternative funding solutions, the analyst incorporates a potential capital raise into forecasts.

When the equity raise is combined with lower earnings forecasts (lower Branded sales and Contract Packing revenue excise tax changes), the broker's rating is downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight. The target falls to $1.13 from $1.68.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $1.13 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.025
If TSI meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.25.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 15.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.04.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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